Posted by probability > 2017-05-21 13:31 | Report Abuse

lots of information here...guess Mycron's Tube sales still have 50% room to grow!

Posted by probability > 2017-05-21 13:38 | Report Abuse

Additional capacity, room for growth:

15,000 ton/qtr X RM700/ton = 10.5 Million additional gross profit potential!

Posted by FutureEyes > 2017-05-21 13:49 | Report Abuse

you are perfectly right probability.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-21 13:57 | Report Abuse

I see that this analysis is purely based on Mean reversion with very realistic gross margins. Who knows what is the true margin potential of CRC makers?

Guess they have not had a chance to show their true colors.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-21 14:07 | Report Abuse

YKGI cannot survive if their gross margin does not improve further.
I think this itself shows the margin has only one direction...up.

Posted by FutureEyes > 2017-05-21 14:32 | Report Abuse

I cannot move the price like Icon after the posting on Lion Industries, but who knows I may at least hit the EPS 6.7 like Icon predicted for Lion.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-21 15:07 | Report Abuse

Looking at its Tube segment performance, i think its highly possible.
This is what we call as Margin of Safety.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-21 19:15 | Report Abuse

FutureEyes, you could have used throughput of 19,500 (for Dec16) and 15,500 (for Mar17) for Choo Bee tube segment. This way, the selling prices would be exactly like reported UOB Kay Hian.

The gross margins would be 500 and 850 for Dec16 and Mar17 respectively. But, in any case their difference is still considerable = RM350 instead of RM417!

Thus, Mycron's tube segment can definitely improve as per your assumption of RM100/ton.

Posted by FutureEyes > 2017-05-21 19:40 | Report Abuse

The figures for Mycron are very accurate. I wanted Choo Bee's gross margin for Dec16 to be somewhat closer to Mycron's tube segment and thus used 18,000.

But you are right I could have used the figures you had mentioned.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-05-21 21:04 | Report Abuse

Thx to,
FutureEyes for the hardworks
and input from probability sifu.

Posted by John Lu > 2017-05-21 21:07 | Report Abuse

So many steel stock to buy, which one the best?

Annjoo, Ssteel, lion?

Mycron, choobee?

Prestar? Ays? Leonfb?

Posted by Skylight Chong > 2017-05-21 22:53 | Report Abuse

Good works

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-05-22 06:53 | Report Abuse

I like this article very much

Nobody can tell whether the author's prediction can come true

But the way he analyse and interprete the data adds a lot of value to the understanding of the stocks

I always like analysis that based on figures rather than just propaganda, empty slogan and shoving things down people throat (Calvin)

Excellent work

Posted by InvestIncome > 2017-05-22 15:04 | Report Abuse

Sai Lang!

Posted by probability > 2017-05-22 19:01 | Report Abuse

totally agreed - Calvin is a pasar malam salesman..

Posted by Icon8888 > May 22, 2017 06:53 AM | Report Abuse

I like this article very much

Nobody can tell whether the author's prediction can come true

But the way he analyse and interprete the data adds a lot of value to the understanding of the stocks

I always like analysis that based on figures rather than just propaganda, empty slogan and shoving things down people throat (Calvin)

Excellent work

Posted by probability > 2017-05-24 19:25 | Report Abuse

might turn out to be the best steel pick for this qtr

Posted by probability > 2017-05-24 19:34 | Report Abuse

all others depends on the future trend of selling price and the time lag effects on the cost of raw material / inventory...the margin direction is uncertain.

for Mycron, the gross margin has to expand - there is only one clear direction.