Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:27 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85405.jsp

Posted by John Lu > 2017-12-26 00:28 | Report Abuse

Ok la ok la...9% also good already & consider out perform if we dont compare with OTB sifu and other 2017 stock pick top 60 or top 70....ok? Happy now?

Posted by joetay > 2017-12-26 00:28 | Report Abuse

@paperplane,

u obviously been talking to either civil or mechanical engineers. thats why u vomit blood.

talk to software engineers or those with strong maths background, u will find that they make a lot of investment sense.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-12-26 00:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by paperplane > Dec 25, 2017 10:53 PM | Report Abuse
Aiyo, me last this yr. So embarrassed.hehe.

So now only you realized that the good result you have in 2016 was nothing but pure luck?

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:30 | Report Abuse

t is shown in the Table above that Perstima meets all the criteria of the Coldeye 5 yardsticks as a good investment candidate. The metrics obtained for cash flows and dividend yields in fact way excel the given criteria with abundant cash flows and free cash flows, and very high dividend yield of twice the criterion.



Conclusions

The ColdEye 5 yardsticks appears to be an attractive investing strategy in Bursa which can provide potential high return with limited downside. The metrics are easy to use and can be quite easily extracted from the three basic financial statements.

Perstima meets all the criteria stated and hence appears to be a good investment candidate based on the Coldeye 5 yardsticks investment strategy.


Above extracted from the post

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:31 | Report Abuse

DDM for Perstima

As shown in Table 1 in the Appendix, Perstima’s dividend payment has been growing from 15 sen in 2006 to 35 sen for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2015, for compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%. What is the intrinsic value of Perstima using DDM?



Here, we will use the expected dividend payment for the next 10 years, and then a dividend growth rate according to the rate of inflation after that as the company becomes a more matured company. The future dividend payments are discounted to the present value. This is essentially a two-stage dividend growth model; one at supernormal growth and the other, a terminal growth.



Perstima has good earnings and cash flows although somewhat gyrating all these years. The earnings and cash flows on average is substantially higher than its dividend payout as shown in Table 1 in the appendix. Free cash flows averages 43 sen per share over the last 10 years. It has a FCF of 56 sen last year. It is from this FCF that dividend is paid out, without having to borrow any money from the bank. Perstima also has a very healthy balance sheet with RM127 cash, or RM1.28 per share, very low short-term debt of RM12m, and no long-term debts.



With these good numbers, we will use a discount rate of 8.0%, twice the bank fixed deposit rate, for discounting future expected dividends to the present to obtain its intrinsic value. Buffett would use the risk free rate, in this case 4%, as the discount rate because he is normally very sure of the future cash flows of the company he invests in. He relies solely on the margin of safety at the end to make his investing decision. But I am no Buffett. I use a risk premium of 4%.



To be conservative, in investing, it always pays to be conservative, we assume that its dividend will grow by 5%, half of its past 10 year’s growth, and then at the long-term growth in GDP rate of 3% subsequently. I would say these are reasonable assumptions.



Value of a growing dividend

The first part of the computation of the present value of the dividend is the growing dividend from year 1 to year 10, or during the period of supernormal growth. Using the present value of a growing annuity formula



PVGA = C1 / (r-g) * [1- {(1+g) / (1+r)}n]



First payment in year 1, C1= C0*(1+g) = 35 sen*(1+5%) = 36.8 sen

Where C0 is this year’s dividend, C1 is next year’s dividend

Required return, r = 8.0%,

Supernormal growth rate, g = 5%

Number of supernormal growth, n = 10 years



We get present value of the growing dividend up to 10 years using the above formula

PVGA= 300 sen, or RM3.00



Terminal Value

The terminal value after 10 years C11 / (r-g1). This is essentially the Gordon Constant Growth Model



Where C11 is the dividend in year 11, g1 = 3% is the terminal growth rate forever after year 10.



C11 = C10*(1+3%) = 35*(1+5%)^10 * (1+3%) = 58.7sen



Terminal value at year 10 = 58.7 / (8%-3%) = 1175 sen



Present value of terminal value = 1175 / (1+8.0%)^10 = 545 sen, or RM5.45



Total present value

Total present value of expected future dividends = PV of growing annuity + PV terminal Value



= RM3.00 + RM5.45 = RM8.45

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-12-26 00:31 | Report Abuse

Posted by paperplane > Dec 26, 2017 12:23 AM | Report Abuse
自大狂？ Me 自大变态狂！ This more suitable! Hahaha


Oh yeah, this I fully agreed.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:31 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85379.jsp

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:33 | Report Abuse

Perhaps, Joe, I talk to probability, he makes a lot of sense. I find him very top notch! Maybe different school kot! Hehe! Chemical engineering ,or petrol chemical makes sense! Haha

Posted by John Lu > 2017-12-26 00:34 | Report Abuse

Anyone can help to calculate if u bought perstima in 2015 and lose the opportunity to buy Airasia in 2015/16, kesm in 2016, dataprep early of 2017 and hengyuan middle of 2017 (fyi, these 4 is sifu paper call buy when nobody notice, i dont believe u have the luck for continuosly for 3 years with 4 stock that so bullish), how much actually is your loss for the opportunity cost?

Let said 100k as capital. Thanks

Posted by joetay > 2017-12-26 00:35 | Report Abuse

@john lu,

use elsoft, pmetal and myeg instead.

no need to go up to 2015.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:36 | Report Abuse

Ah, software engineer perhaps also top notch, one of my old friends is software engineering, he is top student in class and he got good sense of humors

Posted by joetay > 2017-12-26 00:37 | Report Abuse

@paperplane,

probability study is part and parcel in an engineering or maths course.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:37 | Report Abuse

My return in 2015,2016 is really perhaps a pure luck! All luck only like casino. No wonder I like genting.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:38 | Report Abuse

Yeah,those are really basic and kacang puteh I guess? Haha!

Posted by joetay > 2017-12-26 00:40 | Report Abuse

elsoft = 100%, pmetal = 200 to 300% and myeg = 60%

all within 1 yr.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-12-26 00:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by paperplane > Dec 26, 2017 12:37 AM | Report Abuse
My return in 2015,2016 is really perhaps a pure luck! All luck only like casino. No wonder I like genting.


From what you write, and the mentality you have had, I just have no other opinion except agreed with you 100%.

You only know the price of everything, but have the faintest idea of what is value.

Posted by joetay > 2017-12-26 00:47 | Report Abuse

@paperplane,

i have a question for u based on ur discounted dividend model.

can u give a 100% guarantee that the numbers used will hold for over the 10-15 yrs????

parkson is a such a stock where the assumptions dont hold using ddm or sotp modeling.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2017-12-26 00:52 | Report Abuse

Posted by John Lu > Dec 26, 2017 12:24 AM | Report Abuse
Paper sifu, we are not intention to spoilt his rice bowl ma...we just talk fact and our opinion only right?

You two tried to spoil my rice bowl? What rice bowl?

You really look yourself so up ah?

Where is your credential?

Posted by John Lu > 2017-12-26 00:53 | Report Abuse

Forget about the formula and there wont be 100% sure win in investment

Just follow uncle Kyy method

When should we buy?
Buy abit when company report good Q result
Buy more aggresive when company report better result on 2nd Q
Buy until max when the company report another even better result on 3rd Q

When should we sell?
Selling when the profit start drop
Sell aggresive when 2 Q result drop

Simple, logic, commonsense and very useful

Posted by joetay > 2017-12-26 00:54 | Report Abuse

@john lu,

u forget to add in, expected risk/reward.

Posted by John Lu > 2017-12-26 00:56 | Report Abuse

Joe, thats why i said earlier investment is an art and must take calculated risk...won have 100% sure win one. Simple, logic, commensense...why want to make the thing so complicated using those formula and worst the formula wont guaranteed u 100% sure win ma

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 00:59 | Report Abuse

Joetay, FYI, this not from me! Hahaha! Read careful! That kc articles

Posted by John Lu > 2017-12-26 00:59 | Report Abuse

Ok...i already said what I want to say...time to say goodbye...good night every one...merry xmas

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 01:01 | Report Abuse

100% guarantee, not from me! Me Just pure punters, how to write such deep articles with so many formulas some more! Guarantee not me

Posted by John Lu > 2017-12-26 01:05 | Report Abuse

I am very sure Kc now crack his head writing latest article and highlight 3 of our name...we busy with crack spread in HYC and he busy crack his head...haha

Posted by John Lu > 2017-12-26 01:06 | Report Abuse

Ok all...good night!! merry xmas and happy new year 2018

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 01:11 | Report Abuse

You wanna pay few thousands get 10% return or few hundreds to get 70% return! This your own decision

Posted by joetay > 2017-12-26 01:18 | Report Abuse

sorry @paperplane for the misdirection of my question.

very paiseh.

@kcchongnz, pls answer my query on ur ddm. thx

can u give a 100% guarantee that the numbers used will hold for over the 10-15 yrs????

parkson is a such a stock where the assumptions dont hold using ddm or sotp modeling.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-12-26 06:19 | Report Abuse

it is interesting to see someone judge a person's skill based on a year's result. Or even 3 years. Showing illusion of causality and linear thinking. What's even more interesting is bringing this type of linear thinking trying to predict crack spread and macroeconomic which is inherently nonlinear and congrats themselves on the astronomical return.

And yes, investing is art & science. But it isn't hard to identify charlatans. They like to hide in the vague words of 'logic', commonsense' but unable to quantify what those words truly means. You can tell from the way they write.

'Fast decision-making' - Overconfidence and false logic that you will lose money if you are a slow decision maker. Unless he thinks he is better than Daniel Kahneman.

'paperplane sifu are better than KC past 3 years when he spot Air Asia, Kesm, Dataprep and 2017 he spot Hengyuan' - false logic that create false causality thinking. Logic that judge skill based on outcome. Classic investing logic failure.

"i continue to earn my 100% in Hibiscus and Hengyuan and u continue 9% in your portfolio lo...not right and wrong ma" - illusion of skill, doesn't understand the role of randomness and luck, how one can be right for the wrong reason and being fooled by oneself.

"Long term? The investment method has change over the past few decade...if 30 years ago u said invest hold for long term still can work for those company like PUblic bank, genting etc...nowadays is momentum trading which we look for 3 months to max 12 months lo" - Overconfidence, illusion of skills and causality again, greed, illusion of predictability.

"Unless u have 10 mil or 20 mil cash like Kyy then ok la buy and keep to get dividen every year...if less that 5 million must have fast capital gain...buy long term? How long is long term? 10 years? 20 years? Keep for next generation? Come on...dont make me laugh lo" - Again same thing.

Someone touting logic and common sense doesn't have much logic coming out from his own words does it?

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-12-26 07:49 | Report Abuse

paperplane Also, I noticed one thing. Those engineer turn investor or fund manager always think they smarter than others, must use this and that formula.!Just study all books to find a solution to things. Like solving maths questions.

Investment is an art. Lucky I don't have fm who is engineer, else I vomit blood, can't use commonsense ,must argue this and that formula. By the time finish arguments, the others earn 200% already, real waste of my time to teach these kind of character, so I rather not waste time with them.
25/12/2017 23:49

So damn right!

Posted by godhand > 2017-12-26 08:45 | Report Abuse

10% cagr is still a very good return. no point earn 100% this year and lose 50% next year

Posted by Tom > 2017-12-26 09:32 | Report Abuse

一些人一定没见识过长期投资的厉害（通常股价的走势都不起眼，不像hot stock的股价波动很大），还有一点就是长线投资可以是持有股票3年、5年或者是6年，没有人笨到会说一定要持有10年、20年才算是长线投资

而且我相信kcchong也绝对不是只会买入而不会卖出的那种（他也没必要公开正真的投资组合）...他的这种投资方式是少出错，资金稳定的增长，甚至是翻倍，很少在意股价波动，压力也没那么多....

Posted by tah16600 > 2017-12-26 09:37 | Report Abuse

Tom pls translate in English, I think a lot of people don't understand oh!

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:02 | Report Abuse

Below are my performance records in I3.

Assume I started with RM 100,000.00.

2013 - 104% ROI - My total value is now RM 204,000.00.
2014 - 61% ROI - My total value is now RM 328,440.00.
2015 - 129% ROI - My total value is now RM 752,128.00.
2016 - 22% ROI - My total value is now RM 917,596.00.
2017 - 60% ROI - My total value is now RM 1,468,153.00 (until 24/11/2017).

I end up with almost 14 times my original investment value. CAGR or Compounded Annual Growth Rate is 70.00% over the period of 5 years which is very impressive.


ABOVE IS MR.OTB RETURN, I BELIEVE HE MADE MANY TIME BETTER IN THIS BULL MKT RUN.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-12-26 10:03 | Report Abuse

@paperplane, you believe because of your linear thinking

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:10 | Report Abuse

whatever ricky, I sesat thinking also. I still make tons of money. Result proof everything, be it one yr, two years, 5 years, 10 years.

You go and tell your CIO DONT BE LINEAR thinking to FM. Next day I will Fire the FM if they consistenly underperform their peers. Go and fuck themselves with the stupid linear thinking at corner i will advise them.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:11 | Report Abuse

these i would said: SIMPLY INCOMPETITIVE.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-12-26 10:17 | Report Abuse

Good on you making tons of money. I wish result do proof everything, but the fact is it doesn't. Why do you hate FM by the way, your sentence shows your thinking is the same as FM - "Next day I will Fire the FM if they consistenly underperform their peers". This is what the clients do to their FM, shifting their money from losers FM to winner FM, not knowing regression to mean and how randomness plays a role in investing.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:25 | Report Abuse

Ricky, I don't hate FM anyway, no result, you OUT, simple as that, just business, no emotion. anyway, FM might lose their job next decade, you need them to pick stocks? Algo programmed from BIG DATA BASE can do all these. You only need a person to judge and write the logics.

PPL Shift their money to winners, no one like to be losers! why? Losers tend to be losers continuously, and Winners always keep winning!

OTB is the greatest example. Look at also those pass years Top 10 WINNERS in i3 here, a few names keep appearing year by year. You think really randomness? regression?

I can tell you that OTB almost pick whole new stocks year by year without any continuous on stocks prior years. I rarely see repeated stock picked.

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-12-26 10:27 | Report Abuse

OTB got few hundred millions RM behind him lah....sure more powerful one

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:28 | Report Abuse

The First 20 Runners for Year 2015

1 Ooi Teik Bee 129.48%
2 CFTrader 105.16%
3 gohkimhock 99.78%
4 Collin Soo 76.56%
5 Icon8888 75.90%
6 valuelurker 58.91%
7 goldenluck16 54.05%
8 paperplane 53.43%
9 mrk2ca 52.27%
10 Bs1688 51.51%
11 alexchua 50.43%
12 lbkeat 48.52%
13 JeevS 48.06%
14 Intelligent Investor 43.50%
15 JayC 42.00%
16 NOBY 33.91%
17 soojinhou 33.64%
18 爱丽丝 梦幻世界 30.50%
19 Tee Tom 30.38%
20 YiStock 26.14%


The First 20 Runners for Year 2016

1 Up_down 44.84%
2 yeekarwai88 34.54%
3 Kh Neoh 32.96%
4 paperplane2016 31.89%
5 Tee Tom 26.74%
6 jester 23.89%
7 Ooi Teik Bee 22.42%
8 JayC 21.75%
9 nicholasnwh90 20.93%
10 CFTrader 20.63%
11 mrk2ca 17.92%
12 Icon8888 17.67%
13 boon1515 16.13%
14 gohkimhock 15.91%
15 LuvLuv 13.93%
16 Tan KW 13.30%
17 Collin Soo 11.24%
18 YiStock 9.60%
19 ACELEE 8.97%
20 duitKWSPkita 8.70%

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:28 | Report Abuse

Look at the list above, you think the top 10-20 are just randomness? I don't think so.

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-12-26 10:29 | Report Abuse

KC not in top 20 for 2015 n 2016?

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:30 | Report Abuse

These people are winners in life, and they are not randomness, nor regression blah blah.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:32 | Report Abuse

KC did not participate CharlesT bro. If not wrong, he only join this year. And his return is not bad at all.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-12-26 10:36 | Report Abuse

and to be honest, many top gun investors, don't even dare to participate in this open competition! as their reputation will be at risk, everything is so transparent and no one wanna risk their own reputations.

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-12-26 10:37 | Report Abuse

lol...I see OTB n KYY also skipped 2017's competition too

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-12-26 10:57 | Report Abuse

Well regression or not, or how good they are, only they can explain that themselves. But I am surprised why you readily assume just because 2 years of competition you ready to assume they are skillful? Have you not read it is not at all uncommon for superstar traders or even funds like LCTM to shoot the lights out in a bull market for 4-5 years and blow up in one day? So if I do 100% for 10 years and go -90% on 11th year, am I good or bad? If someone win a poker tournament, or any casino games after a 10 games hot streak, would you assume they are skillful? (Don't use the explanation that casino is gambling and investing is not).

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-12-26 10:58 | Report Abuse

That's why im never concern how much % return someone is making. If I want to know how good the person is, I'll examine his thought process.