Be the first to like this.

140 comment(s). Last comment by qqq3 2018-12-05 00:57

apolloang

18,163 posts

Posted by apolloang > 2018-12-02 16:10 | Report Abuse

he had few days to inform but he already start selling how many days ago? bursa ini bodoh,should set new rules.those who sold a few millions must immediately inform bursa not wait a few weeks

Jon Choivo

3,668 posts

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-02 16:18 | Report Abuse

Yes, however, even in markets as thinly traded as KLSE. Short of KYY and a few others. We are all small ciku's.

The fact you can sell all your JAKS shares and buy all the WR you need in one day, shows that we are not all that different.

Losing money hurts regardless of fund size. Our pain is tied to percentages. I find it painful losing say RM10k, you find it painful losing say RM100k. And Buffet finds it painful losing USD3 billion.

Now, fat elephants like buffet or kyy etc. 15% may be considered big. Because 15% takes time to build.

Buffet needs to find companies worth at least USD100 billion in size, because he can probably buy 5% without affecting prices too much. 5% is USD5 billion, which is only 4% of his cash pile of USD 110bil. Very few companies can fit this criteria.

KYY, since he is in small market, he might feel that to some extent trying to deploy say RM15-30 million in a stock. Need at least 1 month or so, and for companies with low outstanding shares like plenitude, he can forget about it, unless he willing to spend one year.

This is really the only difference in managing large amounts of money. Your investment universe becomes much smaller.

Unless one needs at least 2 weeks to clear your position without getting chopped on the price too much. One is probably not that big.



==========
if your portfolio is RM100K, you put 50% of your money in one stock, that is RM50k.

Is 50% big ? Yes.

But is RM50k big ? Nope. Most Malaysians can afford to lose it.

However, if your portfolio is RM100 mil (just an example, not to say that I have it), 15% of your portfolio translates into RM15 mil.

In Malaysia, RM15 mil is a lot of money. It is an amount that I will hate to lose.

So, when someone say he goes big into something by punting 15% of his portfolio, there is nothing contradictory in that statement

Is that so difficult to understand ?

Icon8888 you find this kind of concept alien because you have not really played big in the market. When you grow older and nest egg becomes bigger (in terms of actual money). Many of the things will begin to make sense.
02/12/2018 15:42

Jon Choivo

3,668 posts

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-02 16:20 | Report Abuse

I dont think you're malicious, not consciously at least. We all are a little less holy than we think we are in reality.

However, consider telling your readers what kind of position you're thinking about. To prevent any miscommunication.

Assuming your readers matter to you.

Posted by Investor 999 > 2018-12-02 17:33 | Report Abuse

开工至今已經三年,工程进度才31%,其实是太慢了!根據我的建築工程经验,现在完成的工程应该至少处在55-60%,更何況整个工程是由出了名超快的中国大公司承包,工程进度应该更快才对。剩下一年半的时间去完成69%的工程,有点不可思議!

Nikmon

2,979 posts

Posted by Nikmon > 2018-12-02 18:27 | Report Abuse

@investor 999, if my memory correct, there are 2 phases. jaks mainly on 2nd phase, china contractor will complete phase 1 by early of 2020,

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-02 18:31 | Report Abuse

The official start date of the project as agreed with the Vietnam gov't was 1/10/2016. 54 months is the agreed deadline to commence commercial operation. The main construction works only started in early 2017. The construction profit recognition will follow "S" curve, which means the bulk of the work and hence profit will be recognised in 2019 when the plant construction has to be mostly completed.

Based on Mong Duong 2 and Vinh Tan 1 which commenced operation 6 months ahead of deadline, Jaks power plant will likely has its 1st unit to commence operation in April 2020 and unit 2 Sept 2020. As the testing and synchronisation will take about 3-4 months, the construction of the power plant will likely be completed by end 2019.

qqq3

13,202 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-02 19:18 | Report Abuse

swap makes sense at $1.00....

at this price, no one will buy the warrants.....the issue of warrants at most say 50%.....back to the drawing board for the directors......I think it is not even underwritten....

qqq3

13,202 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-02 19:21 | Report Abuse

swap makes sense at $1.00....probably not only just makes sense to icon......probably it made sense to the directors too......after all the Directors of this company not rich one...their shares also margin one.......

I didn't want to write this earlier because I didn't want to scare people ......

KLCI King

3,220 posts

Posted by KLCI King > 2018-12-02 20:40 | Report Abuse

Yesterday said HOLD, now said SOLD, so contradicting!

So, which one is rubbish? Which one is a lie?

Today Icon8888 said:
Uncle Koon is not the only one selling his Jaks shares. I did the same on 21 November 2018 after the Rights Issue has gone ex. Subsequently on 22 November 2018, after the rights were listed, I bought more at 6 sen.

Icon8888 wrote below yesterday:
I have predicted Jaks price collapse a few months back (belatedly after I bought it. But I decided to hold it anyway, albeit at curtailed exposure). I have given hints in this forum before about that, which I will dig out in the future to substantiate my claim. So far everything that happened matches my expectation and prediction.
https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/icon8888/184703.jsp

Investor48

1,330 posts

Posted by Investor48 > 2018-12-02 20:41 | Report Abuse

What..!?
Directors shares also use margin..
Will follow KYY footsteps boh..kena margin call/force sales..?

Hehe...

KLCI King

3,220 posts

Posted by KLCI King > 2018-12-02 20:42 | Report Abuse

Anyway, one must be the honest one, but surely the other one is a LIE.

newbie5354_

1,244 posts

Posted by newbie5354_ > 2018-12-02 20:47 | Report Abuse

Thank for your info. If buy Jaks bec IPP why not wait Jaks power plant start operation in Apr 2020 only buy? What if delay any guarantee will not happen?

Posted by DK66 > Dec 2, 2018 06:31 PM | Report Abuse
The official start date of the project as agreed with the Vietnam gov't was 1/10/2016. 54 months is the agreed deadline to commence commercial operation. The main construction works only started in early 2017. The construction profit recognition will follow "S" curve, which means the bulk of the work and hence profit will be recognised in 2019 when the plant construction has to be mostly completed.

Based on Mong Duong 2 and Vinh Tan 1 which commenced operation 6 months ahead of deadline, Jaks power plant will likely has its 1st unit to commence operation in April 2020 and unit 2 Sept 2020. As the testing and synchronisation will take about 3-4 months, the construction of the power plant will likely be completed by end 2019.

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-12-02 21:16 | Report Abuse

Playing with Jaks doesn't make sense especially no dividend to hope for every year.no different. it's value of RM0.005 pr RM1.8

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-12-02 21:16 | Report Abuse

has no difference

hollandking

3,694 posts

Posted by hollandking > 2018-12-02 21:20 | Report Abuse

well, mr apollo, the most u get for late inform is fine, right? But sometimes the late announcement and fine might be worthwhile.

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-02 21:43 | Report Abuse

When I said in my yesterday article "But I decided to hold it anyway", I was referring to my decision few months back to continue holding my shares despite my belated opinion that the price might crash.

When I said in my today article "Uncle Koon is not the only one selling his Jaks shares. I did the same on 21 November 2018", I was referring to my decision to finally sell those shares (that I have been holding since few months back) and swap to warrants.

There is no contradiction lah. You really should learn to be less paranoid about people cheating you. It is not healthy. LOL

============

KLCI King Yesterday said HOLD, now said SOLD, so contradicting!

So, which one is rubbish? Which one is a lie?

Today Icon8888 said:
Uncle Koon is not the only one selling his Jaks shares. I did the same on 21 November 2018 after the Rights Issue has gone ex. Subsequently on 22 November 2018, after the rights were listed, I bought more at 6 sen.

Icon8888 wrote below yesterday:
I have predicted Jaks price collapse a few months back (belatedly after I bought it. But I decided to hold it anyway, albeit at curtailed exposure). I have given hints in this forum before about that, which I will dig out in the future to substantiate my claim. So far everything that happened matches my expectation and prediction.
https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/icon8888/184703.jsp
02/12/2018 20:40

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-02 21:43 | Report Abuse

DK66 what is your opinion ? Should I subscribe for the rights at 25 sen or should I wait for them to be listed with hope of collecting below 25 sen ?

kclux

2 posts

Posted by kclux > 2018-12-02 21:51 | Report Abuse

Dont forget to take ur medication, Icon8888

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-02 23:32 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, I agree with what you did.

If most minorities abandoned the warrant (which is very likely now), those who subscribed will be laughing their head off. If that happens, can you still hope to buy at below 0.25 ?

And if it is someone's motive to suppress the share price to make warrant subscription unattractive, then it is likely that the mother share will move up after 6th Dec, then it become unlikely for warrant to list below 0.25. My prediction is warrant will be trading at half the mother share price.

So, my feeling is warrant subscription is a safer choice provided you have full confidence in Jaks vietnam ipp.

--------------------------------
Icon8888 DK66 what is your opinion ? Should I subscribe for the rights at 25 sen or should I wait for them to be listed with hope of collecting below 25 sen ?

Posted by Investor 999 > 2018-12-03 00:02 | Report Abuse

如果去,假设母股再跌至0.45,再亏,如果不去,又怕母股反彈至0.70以上,亏损追不回来。去也不是,不去也不是,难啊!

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-03 00:07 | Report Abuse

Most conservative retail investors will opt to buy mother shares as they feel that warrant will likely to worth only few cents now. What will happen if mother is at 0.50 and warrant at 0.05 ?? At 0.50, Jaks appears to be hopeless and dangerous, so smart investors will sell their mother at 0.50 and spend 0.10 to buy 2 warrants. By doing so, they limit their MAXIMUM losses to 0.10 while DOUBLING their future potential earnings. Sounds logical thing to do ?

Given the current mother price and the latest results, it is natural for retail investors to be pessimistic and uncertain about the warrant listing price now. Most will opt to wait for listing of warrant before buying. As warrant provide higher leverage for higher potential investment returns, most will switch mother to warrant after listing.

As for the investors with margin financing, the warrant provides them the option to swap 1 mother for at least 1 warrant and clear all margin financing. I believe after been troubled by margin calls for so long, this is an attractive option for them.

In conclusion, there will be a lot of interests for warrant after listing. There is much higher chance for it to open up above 0.25 than below.

newbie911

1,111 posts

Posted by newbie911 > 2018-12-03 00:13 | Report Abuse

Sifu said long term
At d end....run also.
Long term use for fun only?

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-03 06:13 | Report Abuse

Thanks dk66 for your advice. Likely I will subscribe in full

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-03 06:23 | Report Abuse

I notice many people finds it difficult to decide on jaks because they fear downside risk. Even our friend investor999 (who I notice is a rational thinker), worry about "losing money". But once you realise that it is merely paper loss , then the whole situation becomes much more easier to understand and decide

Just buy and dumb dumb hold IF you believe in Jaks prospects. I think both Mother and Son are good at this level

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-03 07:25 | Report Abuse

DK66 warrant right issue tu bukan barang permainan for shareholders to make money je bukan abt dilution je it is for raising fund for Jaks operations


Klau under subscribed Jaks kan x dpt wang secukupnya kan short of fund so operations Jaks kan terjejas


Apa implikasi short of fund ni??

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-03 07:55 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, obviously Andy is not worry about under subscription as he didn't procure any underwriter.

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-03 08:07 | Report Abuse

LOL that is very true, now come to think about it

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-03 08:07 | Report Abuse

DK66 not necessarily x semestinya

Underwriting kena bayar bukan murah

Andy pun tak count on Koon to screw it up

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-03 08:13 | Report Abuse

Situasi skrg

To subscribe warrant is to overcome ur emotion

To buy excess different level of numbness is required

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-03 08:16 | Report Abuse

Stupid Koon pun x berani mcm pondan je to come to say he wil subscribe also buy excess

ew8888

32 posts

Posted by ew8888 > 2018-12-03 08:17 | Report Abuse

in my view, current price likely to hold for a period, so they could accumulate warrant at cheaper price

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-03 08:22 | Report Abuse

ew8888 u stil think situasi under control

ew8888

32 posts

Posted by ew8888 > 2018-12-03 08:24 | Report Abuse

u never know whats going on

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-03 08:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by DK66 > Dec 2, 2018 11:32 PM | Report Abuse

Icon8888, I agree with what you did.

If most minorities abandoned the warrant (which is very likely now), those who subscribed will be laughing their head off. If that happens, can you still hope to buy at below 0.25 ?

And if it is someone's motive to suppress the share price to make warrant subscription unattractive, then it is likely that the mother share will move up after 6th Dec, then it become unlikely for warrant to list below 0.25. My prediction is warrant will be trading at half the mother share price.

So, my feeling is warrant subscription is a safer choice provided you have full confidence in Jaks vietnam ipp.


I m 99% confident with my 6 sense on DK66.

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-03 08:38 | Report Abuse

I have a totally different observation.

DK66 is a sincere gentleman

He doesn't say what he doesn't believe.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-03 08:46 | Report Abuse

CharlesT 99% confident thn u must buy d warrant cos tu DK99 going to do

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-03 08:46 | Report Abuse

Anyway I think JAKS at 0.50 shall have limited downside by now...should bet on mother io WA at 0.25 at this level

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-03 08:47 | Report Abuse

oh I see... you misunderstand me...

I didn't switch 1 Jaks at 0.80 to 3.5 WA at 0.25

I switched 1 jaks at 0.80 to 1 WA at 0.25



Posted by CharlesT > Dec 3, 2018 08:43 AM | Report Abuse

Losing 0.25 in WA is better than losing 0.50 in mother?

Same same 100% loss loh

Unless u reduce yr total exposure in JAKS/JAKS-WA

Dont tell u u sell 1K jAKS at 0.80 and switch to 3.5WA at 0.25 and then u will lose less loh if JaKS go Holland

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-03 08:48 | Report Abuse

CharlesT x nak ikut cakap "insider" ke?

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-03 08:48 | Report Abuse

Then u reduce yr total exposure in JAKS...OK loh

The main issue now is whether Koon will continute to sell mother and whether he subscribes the WA at 0.25

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-03 08:49 | Report Abuse

If mother stays at this level likely Wa to open below 0.20

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-03 08:50 | Report Abuse

So buying mother JAKS now at 0.50 assuming koon has stop selling will be safer than buying the Wa at 0.25.....

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-03 08:51 | Report Abuse

To be honest, I don't think your opinion below is wrong. But neither am I too excited about it. I just like the warrants at 25 sen so that when Vietnam's war ship bombarded China oil rig (because Trump guarantee to the Vietcong that it is ok to do so) , I only have 25 sen to lose, not 50 sen

of course I know WA is expensive from conversion premium point of view, but I can live with this temporary anomaly

because I think it is worth RM1.80 ultimately



Posted by CharlesT > Dec 3, 2018 08:46 AM | Report Abuse

Anyway I think JAKS at 0.50 shall have limited downside by now...should bet on mother io WA at 0.25 at this level

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-03 08:52 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, Mr koon did not screw up the warrant. If he abandons his warrant, who benefits ?

The timing for the corporate exercise is extremely bad. Why plan it with a poor results ? Most corporate exercises are done with lots of feel good factors.

The vietnam IPP is a game changer for jaks', not only Andy won't risk the construction works, CPECC will not allow Jaks to jeopardize the whole project.

qqq3

13,202 posts

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-03 08:54 | Report Abuse

this icon have been very aggressive with warrants in i3 competition......

now , it seems in real life too........

your good friend kcchong from nz pengsan.

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-03 08:55 | Report Abuse

If say yr conspiracy is correct they push down mother prices as to discourage people from buying WA

then mother shall rebound upon listing of WA...

WA will still trade at hefty premium at 0.25 even mother goes to 0.70 or 0.80

But u will make 50% or more from mother

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-03 08:55 | Report Abuse

DK66 as at npw can u confirm Koon wil subscribe d warrant?

Mytrd

617 posts

Posted by Mytrd > 2018-12-03 08:55 | Report Abuse

When you sold the share below your average buy price is a loss lar . Even you swap to warrant after sold to leverage and minimize the risk.
Must have confident with mother share then get reward from warrant.
If no confident better dont get any of the warrant, later 100% burn.

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-03 08:57 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, I cannot confirm.

---------------------
SarifahSelinder DK66 as at npw can u confirm Koon wil subscribe d warrant?

Post a Comment
Market Buzz