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140 comment(s). Last comment by qqq3 2018-12-05 00:57

ramada

3,955 posts

Posted by ramada > 2018-12-02 07:57 | Report Abuse

Don't know what the point you write this article. Want to let others know you bought cheaper & sold higher than uncle? In the end, you still lose big in mother share & warrants.

If you want to invest for long term, buy then quietly hold it.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 08:14 | Report Abuse

Harap i con didn't jz take DK66 word tat d warrant ada underwritters

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-02 08:26 | Report Abuse

I bet with you a bag of gold for a bag of potatoes that the warrants will be fully subscribed.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 08:31 | Report Abuse

Ok Sarifah get ready Sarifah bag of potatoes

Really hope u betul


Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 2, 2018 08:26 AM | Report Abuse 

I bet with you a bag of gold for a bag of potatoes that the warrants will be fully subscribed.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 08:33 | Report Abuse

Hope situation masih under control

cheoky

2,820 posts

Posted by cheoky > 2018-12-02 08:34 | Report Abuse

This time I reckon icon bought too much a single company

Nikmon

2,979 posts

Posted by Nikmon > 2018-12-02 08:45 | Report Abuse

still cant decide whether to subscribe warrant or not, if mother remain below 70 cent, i worry that warrant might below 25 cent when listed.

just wonder if mother share hover around 70cent, what is possible price for warrant?

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-02 08:49 | Report Abuse

Sold jaks at 0.80+ n u save ard 0.30 or 40% at current price of 0.50

Yr cost of wa is 0.06+ 0.25= 0.31

As long as wa open above 0.19 then yr switching is ok assuming mother stays at 0.50

Every 1 cent up or down in mother share will certainly be different to every 1 cent up or down in wa in terms of percentage

So u will either make more or lose more...

Thats the levegare effect of warrant.

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-02 08:50 | Report Abuse

Its all maths

tronx

1,172 posts

Posted by tronx > 2018-12-02 08:55 | Report Abuse

Buy mother better than buy warrant. AT THIS MOMENT.

Nikmon

2,979 posts

Posted by Nikmon > 2018-12-02 08:58 | Report Abuse

if i don't subscribe then i lose nothing since those WR are free.

i want to subscribe at first, but after mother drop below 50 cent, just think buy the warrant when listed would be cheaper.

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-02 09:00 | Report Abuse

Mother at this level seems more attractive than the new wa....but depends on whether koon will continue to sell...not sure whether he is doing a full exit....not sure whether he is subscribing the warrants

If koon stops selling then......

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-02 09:01 | Report Abuse

Mother 0.50 wa 0.25 rights issue price

WA has little leverage effect in my opinion...

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-02 09:12 | Report Abuse

Either mother has to go up or wa has to open low

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-02 09:33 | Report Abuse

Initial proposal indicated that there will be no underwriter. However, when the circular to shareholders mentioned that it may procure underwriters, I presumed that jaks warrants will be underwritten. Finally, when the prospectus came out, NO underwriters was sought.

This means that whatever warrants not taken up will not be issued. Hence, less warrants and less dilution. If the warrant is under-subscribed, the 2 directors who undertake to subscribe and those who subscribed will benefit the most. This will benefit the mother shares too as there is less dilution.

Now the price is below the exercise price and the results was poor due to timing of progress billing of vietnam ipp works, would minorities still proceed to subscribe for their warrants ? Most will think twice.

Think again, had the payment for warrants ended before the release of the results, the warrants will most likely be fully subscribed. Poor timing .... or .....

Mr Koon sold 20m shares after the release of the results. Why ? Is it really the results that scared him. Remember, he bought a huge amount of Jaks after the release of the huge loss making Q4 2016 results. Just a wild guess, is he sourcing to subscribe for excess warrants because he thinks that most minorities will opt out of subscription now.

For those who subscribe anyway would prefer the rests don't. This is also human nature.

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2018-12-02 09:38 | Report Abuse

At this point in time, those who proceed to subscribe will not sell the warrants below RM0.25 because they have the option not to subscribe now.

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-02 09:40 | Report Abuse

I hv been thinking abt this for sometime..DK66 are u a pro promoterin jaks?

CharlesT

14,600 posts

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-02 09:40 | Report Abuse

Pro promoter....

abang_misai

2,526 posts

Posted by abang_misai > 2018-12-02 09:47 | Report Abuse

Be warned. If warrants not subscribed, the company will still lack of RM70mil funds it seeks. If so, do expect another round of fund raising, be it private placement or right issues.

cheoky

2,820 posts

Posted by cheoky > 2018-12-02 09:52 | Report Abuse

Why not wait wa listed then only buy. Save stamp duty, save money if u think this company is so damn good n cheap

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2018-12-02 10:01 | Report Abuse

you only posting winning money, how about the loss profile ?

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-02 10:07 | Report Abuse

No. I just want a limited exposure through the warrants. If I buy mother shares, my maximum downside risk is 50 sen. If hold warrants the max risk is 25 sen. I will ignore the conversion premium, etc and just dumb dumb hold warrants.

The situation is risky. Not advisable to move too many times

========

Investor 999 Good morning Icon8888 I agreed that you have made a right decision switching mother share to wr 2 weeks ago but thing has changed cos mother share price dropped to 0.500 now, do you think investing in mother at 0.500 is better than subscribing warrant at 0.25?
02/12/2018 08:43

abang_misai

2,526 posts

Posted by abang_misai > 2018-12-02 10:08 | Report Abuse

Good news. Trade war is off.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-chinas-xi-end-high-000933750.html

trulyinvest

2,370 posts

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-12-02 10:11 | Report Abuse

I thought u wrote b4 u hv faith in jaks n now say u sold jaks. Apa ini? Cakap x serupa bikin. Semua ular dua kepala. Org pun u hantu pun u.. pui

abang_misai

2,526 posts

Posted by abang_misai > 2018-12-02 10:12 | Report Abuse

Kawan, you are fooled by randomness

trulyinvest

2,370 posts

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-12-02 10:15 | Report Abuse

Us market oredi up a,lot ahead if tis news....

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-02 10:24 | Report Abuse

No, he is not. I dare to speak on behalf of him because I have the same view as him with regards to Jaks. So, I sort of understand him. DK66 is just speaking sincerely out of his heart how he feels about Jaks (based on positive feeling of Jaks). This is exactly what I have been doing all this while. It is just that when disbelievers see what we say, they will immediately think that we have ulterior motives

In a nutshell, the colour of the glasses you wear determine the colour of the world you see


CharlesT I hv been thinking abt this for sometime..DK66 are u a pro promoterin jaks?
02/12/2018 09:40

cpng

1,575 posts

Posted by cpng > 2018-12-02 11:47 | Report Abuse

白宫发文告,只是再展延3个月,把对中国货入口关税从10%加大到25%,要观察中国政府接下来给出的诚意。

今天早上全部的中文媒体讲中国美国贸易战不再升级,因为全球只新华社这样报新闻,结果全部中文媒体高潮自high!

其他国际媒体都非常安静。

apolloang

18,163 posts

Posted by apolloang > 2018-12-02 11:57 | Report Abuse

he sold 20mil,his remisiers and follows also quickly follow him sold more than 20 mil? all insider trading.they know the news and dump 1st.now only he tell u all already to late only 50cts......hahaha

Alex™

12,591 posts

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-02 13:05 | Report Abuse

icon sifu terbest!

Alex™

12,591 posts

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-12-02 13:06 | Report Abuse

only hurt -4% total portfolio in episode, many traders would have considered it a very good fold from poker perspecitve

Jon Choivo

3,668 posts

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-02 13:38 | Report Abuse

That is a very interesting way of looking at risk management.

One thing i've always found interesting is how veterans here often say they are going in big, and it turns out to be 15% and now 4% of portfolio, which is probably not what the average retailer considers big, but speaks a lot about the experience of these veterans ability to manage risk.

Anyway, lets delve a little deeper into this method.

Based on what i've read, its almost as if your risk management strategy, consist of first determining the return you expect in absolute value (Lets say RM100,000), and then using the highest leveraged (non recourse) instrument to help you get what you want in order to minimize the size of the investment relative to the fund.

This strikes me as a little inefficient, because mathematically, the most efficient method is to use the Kelly's Criterion in order to determine the most efficient bet size.

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2018/06/14/the-kelly-criterion...

And because of this, it appears to ignore the line of thinking, where one puts the most money on what they consider to be their best investment.

But by doing so, it effectively caps the profit and the loss in absolute figures. And reduces the risk of ruin to close to zero.

From an investment perspective its a little odd.

But from a speculative perspective, if one looks at stocks etc as just numbers on a screen, does so adventurously (ie not really knowing what it is they are holding or the probabilities/expected value with a high level of confidence, but rely instead of trusting gut feeling and "feels good"), and want to maintain the ability to think straight by limiting exposure.

This works very well then.

I'm not sure if its for me, because i'm effectively 105% in equities and i like to put the most money in my best ideas.

But the allocation size definitely speaks volumes about how much confidence you actually have in your investment in jaks or others (if this is considered big).


=======
Why did I sell my shares ? Because that was the right thing to do from risk vs. reward point of view ! Let's look at the mathematics.

By holding Jaks at 80 sen, my maximum downside risk is 80 sen. But by holding warrants, my maximum downside risk over the next five years is only 25 sen (my rights subscription price).

My target price for Jaks is at least RM1.50. If that is achieved, the warrants will register gain of RM0.61, being RM1.50 less RM0.64 exercise price and then less RM0.25 cost of investment (based on conservative assumption of zero conversion premium).

If I hold mother shares at RM0.80, my upside is RM0.70 (being RM1.50 less RM0.80).

A 25 sen Warrant can give me potential gain of RM0.61 while an 80 sen mother share will give me potential gain of RM0.70. Do you really need to be a genius to figure out that it makes sense to replace mother shares with Warrants ?

Subsequently, I averaged down by buying several more batches. But for sake of simplicity, you can assume my cost is RM1.17. By selling at 80 sen, I incurred a loss of 32%. But Jaks makes up about 15% of my portfolio. So the effective impact is negative 4.8%. Not an insignificant amount, but if I didn't buy Jaks and instead bought some other shares, I might have registered some losses also (in this bearish market). So, as far as I am concerned, my exposure in Jaks is still quite manageable.

Now that I have switched to warrants, my exposure to Jaks has been further scaled down to 4% of my portfolio (being RM0.31 / RM1.17 multiplied by the original 15% exposure). Do I really need to lose sleep over that amount ? The best thing is that if Jaks price goes up, I have the exposure to enjoy the upside.

For me, as long as you manage your risk properly, it is ok to be a bit adventurous. No pain no gain.

kclux

2 posts

Posted by kclux > 2018-12-02 14:08 | Report Abuse

Dont forget to take ur medication, Icon8888

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 14:58 | Report Abuse

But by doing so, it effectively caps the profit and the loss in absolute figures. And reduces the risk of ruin to close to zero. 



Bukan zero tapi cost warrant tu klau 100% burnt

Mungkin relative to whole portfolio x besar x ruin

Tapi mother now mcm tu mcm mana ??

Ayoyo

379 posts

Posted by Ayoyo > 2018-12-02 15:00 | Report Abuse

@jonchoivo

As I said earlier, you may have some degree of competence in theoretical thinking and financial jargons but still much raw edges to polish in practical aspects

Putting a mathematical equation to computate what effectively is the tug of balance between something as complex as human emotions at play is self fulfilling, at best..

Here's a tip for you, Sharpen your edge on trading psychology and as a young trader then, I find these articles particularly helpful in my subsequent years in shaping my thinking and seeking an edge that worked for me

http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/articles.htm


After all, the markets is ultimately a battle between 3 people - me, myself and I - and not between anyone else, so make your own peace with what others do, for if a trade is not a profit, it was for well spent valuable information of how far you are to your goals and objectives

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 15:00 | Report Abuse

Taksiran tukar ke warrant tersilap kali ni cos x ambil kira nowadays ada IDSS to crash harga mother for u

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 15:03 | Report Abuse

Jaks klau dihalusi is actually d best candidate to IDSS


Shareholder paling besar use margin


Banyak yg nak tukar ke warrant


Result pun teruk

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 15:05 | Report Abuse

Lagi Koon berjiwa gatal

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 15:09 | Report Abuse

Skrg harga mother crash mcm ni mcm mana?

apolloang

18,163 posts

Posted by apolloang > 2018-12-02 15:09 | Report Abuse

sekarang ini I tak tahu but if 40cts I buy lah…..hehe

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 15:21 | Report Abuse

Beli tetap beli

Tapi masa kini fundamental takin a back seat

Tapi lambat laun harap harap return to d mean

Tapi mcm mana nak subscribe warrant bila harga mother ni ?

Warrant kan under subscribe

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 15:23 | Report Abuse

Sarifah tanya sekali lagi

Kan Koon subscribe d warrant?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 15:25 | Report Abuse

Catch 22?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-02 15:26 | Report Abuse

Stupid Koon x ambil kira dia shareholder besar

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-02 15:41 | Report Abuse

if your portfolio is RM100K, you put 50% of your money in one stock, that is RM50k.

Is 50% big ? Yes.

But is RM50k big ? Nope. Most Malaysians can afford to lose it.

However, if your portfolio is RM100 mil (just an example, not to say that I have it), 15% of your portfolio translates into RM15 mil.

In Malaysia, RM15 mil is a lot of money. It is an amount that I will hate to lose.

So, when someone say he goes big into something by punting 15% of his portfolio, there is nothing contradictory in that statement

Is that so difficult to understand ?

===========

Jon Choivo That is a very interesting way of looking at risk management.

One thing i've always found interesting is how veterans here often say they are going in big, and it turns out to be 15% and now 4% of portfolio, which is probably not what the average retailer considers big, but speaks a lot about the experience of these veterans ability to manage risk.

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-02 15:42 | Report Abuse

you find this kind of concept alien because you have not really played big in the market. When you grow older and nest egg becomes bigger (in terms of actual money). Many of the things will begin to make sense.

apolloang

18,163 posts

Posted by apolloang > 2018-12-02 15:43 | Report Abuse

why uncle sold 20 mil no disclose to bursa yet? this bursa also buta must set new rules.those who sold a few million stocks must immediately inform bursa

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-02 15:45 | Report Abuse

he has few days to do it. Not immediate

Jon Choivo

3,668 posts

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-02 16:07 | Report Abuse

Dear Ayoyo,

I do not punt or trade short term. Not because i'm holier than thou etc.

But because our time is limited, an i think what i can gain from that is probably less efficient given my life philosophy and goals.

Others may feel differently.

When i do trade or speculate. Which is essentially predicting the price in the next 3-6 months.

Its only when there is a clear catalyst, and i'm very certain my view, which is contrary to the market is the correct one. And the market is thus severely mispriced.

I punted on the Malaysia elections, betting 3% of the fund, that PH will win with 3:1 odds. I punted on Brexit, buying put options for pounds denominated in USD. and I had friends punt on the american elections, shorting the Peso against RMB.





=====
Ayoyo @jonchoivo

As I said earlier, you may have some degree of competence in theoretical thinking and financial jargons but still much raw edges to polish in practical aspects

Putting a mathematical equation to computate what effectively is the tug of balance between something as complex as human emotions at play is self fulfilling, at best..

Here's a tip for you, Sharpen your edge on trading psychology and as a young trader then, I find these articles particularly helpful in my subsequent years in shaping my thinking and seeking an edge that worked for me

http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/articles.htm


After all, the markets is ultimately a battle between 3 people - me, myself and I - and not between anyone else, so make your own peace with what others do, for if a trade is not a profit, it was for well spent valuable information of how far you are to your goals and objectives
02/12/2018 15:00

TYS_Capital

1,691 posts

Posted by TYS_Capital > 2018-12-02 16:09 | Report Abuse

penny stock in making. collect only when the price below 0.30

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