Icon8888 Gossips About Stocks
(Icon) Jaks Resources (6) - Uncle Koon Not The Only One Selling. I Did The Same Thing
First of all, my apology for writing so soon. I mentioned in my previous article that I will only write again after Jaks turns around. But yesterday Uncle Koon wrote that he has disposed of 20 mil shares. This generated a lot of interest among i3 members. So I am tempted to also chip in.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/184749.jsp
Uncle Koon is not the only one selling his Jaks shares. I did the same on 21 November 2018 after the Rights Issue has gone ex. Subsequently on 22 November 2018, after the rights were listed, I bought more at 6 sen.
Note : The yellow areas above are some details I prefer not to disclose (account code, number of shares transacted, etc).
Why did I sell my shares ? Because that was the right thing to do from risk vs. reward point of view ! Let's look at the mathematics.
By holding Jaks at 80 sen, my maximum downside risk is 80 sen. But by holding warrants, my maximum downside risk over the next five years is only 25 sen (my rights subscription price).
My target price for Jaks is at least RM1.50. If that is achieved, the warrants will register gain of RM0.61, being RM1.50 less RM0.64 exercise price and then less RM0.25 cost of investment (based on conservative assumption of zero conversion premium).
If I hold mother shares at RM0.80, my upside is RM0.70 (being RM1.50 less RM0.80).
A 25 sen Warrant can give me potential gain of RM0.61 while an 80 sen mother share will give me potential gain of RM0.70. Do you really need to be a genius to figure out that it makes sense to replace mother shares with Warrants ?
Note 1 : Since the rights issue is on 1 for 2 basis. To fully replace my mother shares with warrants, I have to buy additional rights from the open market, which I dutifully did so the next day at 6 sen. Meaning my second batch warrants cost is 31 sen.
Note 2 : the mother shares have since dropped to 50 sen. At 25 sen cost, the warrants will have conversion premium of 78%. I see the relatively high premium as academic. I cannot be having all the right things at all the time. The most important thing is still whether Jaks can go up in the future. Rising water lifts all boats.
Concluding Remarks
I started buying Jaks at RM1.17 (as mentioned in my first article).
Subsequently, I averaged down by buying several more batches. But for sake of simplicity, you can assume my cost is RM1.17. By selling at 80 sen, I incurred a loss of 32%. But Jaks makes up about 15% of my portfolio. So the effective impact is negative 4.8%. Not an insignificant amount, but if I didn't buy Jaks and instead bought some other shares, I might have registered some losses also (in this bearish market). So, as far as I am concerned, my exposure in Jaks is still quite manageable.
Now that I have switched to warrants, my exposure to Jaks has been further scaled down to 4% of my portfolio (being RM0.31 / RM1.17 multiplied by the original 15% exposure). Do I really need to lose sleep over that amount ? The best thing is that if Jaks price goes up, I have the exposure to enjoy the upside.
For me, as long as you manage your risk properly, it is ok to be a bit adventurous. No pain no gain.
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Discussions
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So buying mother JAKS now at 0.50 assuming koon has stop selling will be safer than buying the Wa at 0.25.....
2018-12-03 08:50
To be honest, I don't think your opinion below is wrong. But neither am I too excited about it. I just like the warrants at 25 sen so that when Vietnam's war ship bombarded China oil rig (because Trump guarantee to the Vietcong that it is ok to do so) , I only have 25 sen to lose, not 50 sen
of course I know WA is expensive from conversion premium point of view, but I can live with this temporary anomaly
because I think it is worth RM1.80 ultimately
Posted by CharlesT > Dec 3, 2018 08:46 AM | Report Abuse
Anyway I think JAKS at 0.50 shall have limited downside by now...should bet on mother io WA at 0.25 at this level
2018-12-03 08:51
Sarifah, Mr koon did not screw up the warrant. If he abandons his warrant, who benefits ?
The timing for the corporate exercise is extremely bad. Why plan it with a poor results ? Most corporate exercises are done with lots of feel good factors.
The vietnam IPP is a game changer for jaks', not only Andy won't risk the construction works, CPECC will not allow Jaks to jeopardize the whole project.
2018-12-03 08:52
this icon have been very aggressive with warrants in i3 competition......
now , it seems in real life too........
your good friend kcchong from nz pengsan.
2018-12-03 08:54
If say yr conspiracy is correct they push down mother prices as to discourage people from buying WA
then mother shall rebound upon listing of WA...
WA will still trade at hefty premium at 0.25 even mother goes to 0.70 or 0.80
But u will make 50% or more from mother
2018-12-03 08:55
When you sold the share below your average buy price is a loss lar . Even you swap to warrant after sold to leverage and minimize the risk.
Must have confident with mother share then get reward from warrant.
If no confident better dont get any of the warrant, later 100% burn.
2018-12-03 08:55
Sarifah, I cannot confirm.
---------------------
SarifahSelinder DK66 as at npw can u confirm Koon wil subscribe d warrant?
2018-12-03 08:57
kcchong just wrote an article telling people the maths calculations and his reservations......
kc chong not imaginative....the word IF can launch a thousand boats.....
2018-12-03 08:58
I know my numbers
Posted by CharlesT > Dec 3, 2018 08:57 AM | Report Abuse
Yr sweet dreams in Wa will only comes true when mother reach RM1.50 or RM2.00 or higher
2018-12-03 08:58
charles....
so still want to blame? blame me for what?
and what culprit? I no culprit, I not so powerful one.
2018-12-03 09:48
So Koon is 100% responsibled for all the massive loss here?
U are totally innocent?
2018-12-03 09:51
where got culprit...I still receive this message from kyy in whatsapp yesterday.....".I believe I will be able to make back some money with my tested skill."...and 99% of the time, not talking about stock market.....
2018-12-03 09:57
Tested skill?
does he meant sialang in JAKS n Sendai using margin?
I scare n worry for the poor students loh
2018-12-03 09:58
I suggest him to donate more now....just in case he wanna test his tested skill again
2018-12-03 09:59
when a large stakeholder start selling ( amid depressed conditions ) price of this category will drop faster . lack of institutional support can be clearly seen from the chart pattern. just my personal take
2018-12-03 09:59
kyy is his own man and there is only one kyy in Malaysia. That is all I want to say.
2018-12-03 10:13
qqq3 > Dec 3, 2018 10:13 AM | Report Abuse
kyy is his own man and there is only one kyy in Malaysia. That is all I want to say.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
true! and there is only one jesse livermore, one ed seykota
2018-12-03 10:26
I think there are two qqq3 in this world...one in holland another one in i3
2018-12-03 10:34
Koon pondan x berani confirm he subscribe warrant
No support IDSS x takut lagi dah jadi berani
2018-12-03 10:50
".I believe I will be able to make back some money with my tested skill."
Wait wait wait...on the second thought could he be implying he will join Koon Bee System again? Like how he dumped all his Mudajaya/Rsawit etc without hesitation n switched to export counters in 2014??
Omg will he dump all his JAKS n Sendai and.......
2018-12-03 10:50
Koon x jawab jawab
Conclusion Koon not subscribe his lebih kurang 50,000,000 warrant
2018-12-03 11:28
charles....who says trade war is good for steels in Malaysia?
now, all kaput......
2018-12-03 14:16
All self professed gurus and super investors here seem to missed it. I said from the start that Jaks is not a good stock to put your hard earned money into and for the gullible using margin too. I mentioned that the most pertinent criteria in stock picking is the management that runs the company. Jaks has a very poor track record. Yet there were self professed super investors that were attracted to this stock. There's no free lunch in this world. So, what goes around comes around. Hopefully, this will serve as a lesson to all to buy companies that are managed well and not prices ramp up through private syndicates and gullible followers that think they're invincible. These people has finally got their fingers burnt. This is their karma for boasting in the past on their track record. Their modus operandi was to attract unassuming investors to help push their share price up. Hopefully, they will be more humble in their writing in future, cheers.
2018-12-03 22:58
seems like a lots people has gave up the warrant...黄金十年....i will not subscribe as well.
2018-12-04 00:25
Jon sell Jaks! Everyone run. God of Stocks run from Jaks already! Jon Fund sell, Jaks price fall, waterfall!
Wait wait.......... Jaks how many % of your fund? 1.5% got? I count count is 25 to 30 lots only. Need to make announcement here?
2018-12-04 12:38
I'm referring to icon's article title (and chronology).
You really need to improve on your reading comprehension.
Its embaressing really.
------
Posted by i3Value > Dec 4, 2018 12:38 PM | Report Abuse
Jon sell Jaks! Everyone run. God of Stocks run from Jaks already! Jon Fund sell, Jaks price fall, waterfall!
Wait wait.......... Jaks how many % of your fund? 1.5% got? I count count is 25 to 30 lots only. Need to make announcement here?
2018-12-04 12:40
Out of no where post "Jaks- I have sold" did not mean you sold shares but referring to something else?
You really need to improve on your writing ability. Its embaressing really.
2018-12-04 12:50
Its a public forum.
Pay me RM5 per word, and i'll write properly.
OthERwiSE I'll WRite MY EngLAND lik tis. If i want to.
Your sentence below is wrong grammatically btw.
Coldeye have a 1/2/7 view. Out of 10, one make profit in markets, 2 breakeven, 7 lose money.
How lah, read or write also dunno, probability of you being in 7, went from 80% to 90% d. Sad man.
====
Posted by i3Value > Dec 4, 2018 12:50 PM | Report Abuse
Out of no where post "Jaks- I have sold" did not mean you sold shares but referring to something else?
You really need to improve on your writing ability. Its embaressing really.
2018-12-04 12:57
Im flaterred you checked back that far. Ancient history also can find. You want baby photo's anot? Haha.
Feel free to finish your research and write a wikipedia page for me. I lazy type.
Don't forget i was also a bit of an asshole, and a strict taskmaster as a manager.
2018-12-04 13:08
Where got ancient? You just left BDO Binder but you so quickly want to wipe off from your memory your dark sad episode of life - unpopular, disliked.
You promote yourself to Manager? Like that also can
2018-12-04 13:15
Given your reading comprehension skills and abitlity in buying seacera at 0.31.
I won't put too much stock in your reserch or comprehension abilities. But, feel free to continue.
Maybe one day something will stick. With luck you may even make money!
2018-12-04 13:20
Sad to disappoint you. I bought Seacera closer to 50% of the price you said i bought. That was a big kill.
2018-12-04 13:26
Why change subject? We were talking about BDO Binder. When you promoted to Manager?
2018-12-04 13:28
investor,
can you substantiate you claim with a more convincing example that a general statement
if i find what you said is believable , i will sell all my warrant the first day
Posted by Investor 999 > Dec 3, 2018 09:42 AM | Report Abuse
谨慎点不是坏事，未來不一定如我們想像那么完美的。公司最重要是最高管理层效率和诚信，偏偏是这间公司最大的问题
2018-12-04 13:35
do not blame qqq3
when he promoted sailang
i did not sailang , why you sailang
uncle koon is my sifu when he buy I did not buy
I buy only after i am convinced by DK66 homework
dare not buy mother shares, only dare to play-play warrant to test my lucks for the coming 2 years
why so funny one ?
not funny at all
KC is my sifu mah ....
2018-12-04 13:41
this year seems a bad year for i3 readers
semua suka cari salah
semua suka gaduh
not only aseng gor
2018-12-04 14:07
halite....yalah....why so many people want to blame me? I very innocent one.
I so close to KYY, but I not burn by Jaks.....everyone should be responsible for their buy and sell and not blame anyone.
2018-12-05 00:57
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Then u reduce yr total exposure in JAKS...OK loh
The main issue now is whether Koon will continute to sell mother and whether he subscribes the WA at 0.25
2018-12-03 08:48