Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 16:15 | Report Abuse

Dear forum participants,


Mr 1015 shares with us his good fortune from his investing.

The lessons I learn from him are obvious. I have been investing along similar strategies all these years.

However, I do hold more stocks than Mr 1015.

The more intelligent questions to ask are:

Can you understand why he is so successful in his investing?

Can you also benefit from his sharing to be successful in your investing?


I believe the answer has to be YES, but then, you have to be appropriately wired like him.


Cheers.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 16:16 | Report Abuse

raid...for most people, safety means blue chips, government monopolies like Tenaga, big caps like Maybank....but for raider, safety means penny stocks......like Xingguan la...got $ 1 billion cash.....weird fellow.....

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 16:17 | Report Abuse

Good question.

But i think u no need to sailang mah....!!

Just buy reasonable moderate meaningful amount loh...!!

Posted by i3Value > Jan 16, 2019 04:14 PM | Report Abuse

You guys write long long but if no guts and conviction, read a million books also no use. If you are Buffett or Graham best friend also no use.

When you find a stock that match all your criteria, you have killer instinct to buy BIG and believe in your gem? Super-investors who dare to do it got rich doing it, if not they will forever be poor and unknown. If you dont have killer instict, let you find 100 super stocks also no use.

After buy, market go into cycles. During down cycle, you have the balls to ride the storm over and over again? Share price will never go up up up. When share price down, will you be shaken and cut loss? If you already make profit, can you handle your profit erosion and not take profit? You think multi-bagger so easy earn? You need balls of steel.

Talk is easy. Reading books easier. Can do it in reality only talk.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 16:18 | Report Abuse

>>>>
i3Value

When you find a stock that match all your criteria, you have killer instinct to buy BIG and believe in your gem? Super-investors who dare to do it got rich doing it, if not they will forever be poor and unknown. If you dont have killer instict, let you find 100 super stocks also no use.
>>>>


Yes, having the cash and the courage are important too.

When you have a stock you like (based on your criteria) and available at low risk and high reward situation, have the cash and the courage to bet big into it.

I have on occasions, bought the equivalent of a bungalow into a stock I like over a short period of days.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 16:19 | Report Abuse

Yes penny stock loh...!!

Every year ....a new special selected penny stock become a ql, dialog and pmetal mah.......!!

Catch it & get it right...u r route to become rich loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 16, 2019 04:16 PM | Report Abuse

raid...for most people, safety means blue chips, government monopolies like Tenaga, big caps like Maybank....but for raider, safety means penny stocks......like Xingguan la...got $ 1 billion cash.....weird fellow.....

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-16 16:22 | Report Abuse

No need sailang. Sailang technically means all money into 1 stock. Risk management wise, that is not recommended (although not necessarily wrong).

But it MUST be significant. That's how the super-investors get rich. Not just because their methodology found them a formula for success. You must make big money out of it.

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Posted by stockraider > Jan 16, 2019 04:17 PM | Report Abuse

Good question.

But i think u no need to sailang mah....!!

Just buy reasonable moderate meaningful amount loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 16:25 | Report Abuse

in the final analysis, this is what matters


by i3Value > Jan 16, 2019 04:14 PM | Report Abuse

You guys write long long but if no guts and conviction, read a million books also no use. If you are Buffett or Graham best friend also no use.

When you find a stock that match all your criteria, you have killer instinct to buy BIG and believe in your gem? Super-investors who dare to do it got rich doing it, if not they will forever be poor and unknown. If you dont have killer instict, let you find 100 super stocks also no use.

After buy, market go into cycles. During down cycle, you have the balls to ride the storm over and over again? Share price will never go up up up. When share price down, will you be shaken and cut loss? If you already make profit, can you handle your profit erosion and not take profit? You think multi-bagger so easy earn? You need balls of steel.

Talk is easy. Reading books easier. Can do it in reality only talk.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 16:25 | Report Abuse

yes the last time raider make very good meaningful profit on insas loh.....!!

of course u need to buy meaningful amount mah...!!

Posted by i3Value > Jan 16, 2019 04:22 PM | Report Abuse

No need sailang. Sailang technically means all money into 1 stock. Risk management wise, that is not recommended (although not necessarily wrong).

But it MUST be significant. That's how the super-investors get rich. Not just because their methodology found them a formula for success. You must make big money out of it.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 16:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 16:37 | Report Abuse

qqq3 > Jan 16, 2019 04:25 PM | Report Abuse X

If you dont have killer instict, let you find 100 super stocks also no use.
================

I am good at recognising excellent stocks....in recent years, I recognised the following stocks at an early/ mid stage and still cheap relative to today price : Vitrox, Scientex, AeonCr, Harta,

but never able to make as much as I should have ...big problem....well....one day....

killer instincts...not easy la...market got too many fears, fear of this fear of that.....I not scared of my selections...scared the market collapse.......

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 16:41 | Report Abuse

use brain lah....!!

don be naive lah...!!

Do u understand 20% of the stock investment contribute 80% of the profit loh...!!

Your most favor stock, allocate more is always like that mah...!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 16, 2019 04:28 PM | Report Abuse

napshot 45 stocks of raider


Assuming he invested equal amounts into each of these stocks, it will only be 2% or so of the portfolio value in each of the stocks.

Meaningful investing should be concentrated. At least 4% of portfolio value in a stock is meaningful, any smaller amount is not meaningful (my point of view).

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-16 16:48 | Report Abuse

3iii, i believe percentage is relevant in terms of portfolio value only.

If portfolio capital is RM100k, invest 4% (RM4k) in a hard found super stock is a waste of time. Stick to office job and earn monthly fixed salary better. This take forever to earn meaningful profit from investing. Plus here minus there, better off put in FD. Or unit trust. Or buy insurance policy.

If portfolio size is like hedge fund then different story. Percentage matters.

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Posted by 3iii > Jan 16, 2019 04:28 PM | Report Abuse

napshot 45 stocks of raider


Assuming he invested equal amounts into each of these stocks, it will only be 2% or so of the portfolio value in each of the stocks.

Meaningful investing should be concentrated. At least 4% of portfolio value in a stock is meaningful, any smaller amount is not meaningful (my point of view).

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-16 17:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 15, 2019 07:55 PM | Report Abuse

For Sam engineering, it is a company based it's factories and plants in Penang, ergo usually led, semiconductors and hard disk drive. I personally don't like this business, as I don't see any long term future in manufacture of drives. As someone who started with floppy disks on my 186, then moved to hdd, then the move to solid state, I have a good friend who worked with Seagate. He was retrenched. I realized the tooling industry is not very amenable to change with new equipment expenses and long term return. Especially if your equipment and entire manufacturing methods change almost overnight.

For it's aerospace division, the only company that I have looked at before was Boeing, Airbus and Barnes aerospace. My take on this: the aerospace business is dominated by Boeing and Airbus and they have new and old engines to be maintained. It does not favor the MRO suppliers and market. By doing a comparison of the business in Barnes and Sam you see a very clear similarity. There are only a limited amount of planes that need to be replaced and maintained every year. And each new growth will be driven by new and different types of planes, meaning new upgrade in capex, lower margins and most importantly, an inability to grow organically because best competing prices are always wherever is nearest to the planes. It's a very standardised business, and cost of export hampers growth.

Then again, if it wasn't everyone would be sending engine casing from plants in China, UK and US.

Personally, it's a interesting business, but the profit margins compared to Barnes aerospace division gives me a skip.

I still think it's a fine business with ok prospects 5-10 years from now, but I'd rather look for companies with either high growth and low profits, or lower growth with high profit earnings, while protecting shareholder value. But I do like to buy companies with a clear business advantage ( like boring and Airbus), or superior tool manufacturing model. I don't see that for sam within the next 5 years.




SAM is in my core portfolio.

Semiconductor outlook remains strong given the increasing adoption of smart sensors, IOT etc. though the earnings from this division is highly cyclical and inconsistent.

The main attraction of course is the aerospace division. Their major growth driver. Management is keen to grow this division to 80% revenue through expansion and opportunistic acquisition with Aerospace business in their 2016 Crossover Project.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 17:04 | Report Abuse

Fabien...but why would Temasek help Malaysia?

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-16 17:05 | Report Abuse

Which is why i dont see any good in Conman Choivo. Read a lot means pandai? Always quoting big names like he is their best friend. All just to show off knowledge - signs of inferiority complex.

He stick to same style, forever cannot make big money. Now he is toying his method with his investors' money. So confident why not use all of own money and all of parents money to trial and error?

To top it up, Conman Choivo attitude is repulsive.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 17:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-16 17:12 | Report Abuse

On other note, i wish i have the conviction such as yours.

4 stocks.

My core portfolio consists of 5-6 stocks. Include small exposures will add up to 28.

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-16 17:14 | Report Abuse

Hit a few big ones enough. Well done!

Many naive people actually believe people like Warren Buffett everyday find good stocks to make money. Use 'proven' method all stock buy also make money, this world where got poor people some more?

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Posted by stockraider > Jan 16, 2019 04:25 PM | Report Abuse

yes the last time raider make very good meaningful profit on insas loh.....!!

of course u need to buy meaningful amount mah...!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-16 17:18 | Report Abuse

Stockraider, do you think I dont buy moderate meaningful reasonable amount? You think i earn 40-50k a month? When I first started, I was only manager earning around 4K+... how to sailang? you teach me?

The difference between you and me is i buy reasonable, moderate amounts every quarter, ever year for 9 years straight. On one stock.

You can call me lucky, I call it understanding the business.

You say hengyuan business very very good, I ask you why Shell sold it in the first place if business damn good. They sold 51% for 66m USD (120 million for the whole thing at below bursa market rate that time?)

You pick a stock go up from RM3 to RM18 you say you are pro. I ask you why would you EVEN consider buying a stock that oscillate that much in 1 year.

You call Hengyuan stock a good buy. I think not.

Luckily you never sailang on hengyuan.

Full disclosure: I did go nuts and sailang 200K in QL 2009. but after is just regular reading of quarterly reports and regular purchases of reasonable, moderate amount every quarter. I dont have the clout of a KYY to go all in and keep buying until become biggest shareholder in a couple of months.

I took 9 years to build my shareholding until now.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-16 17:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 16, 2019 05:04 PM | Report Abuse

Fabien...but why would Temasek help Malaysia?


Oh...i don't look at it from this angle.

I look at business fundamentals only, aerospace prospect is good...their track record...good management...strong relationship with major aerospace...decent moat..

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-16 17:20 | Report Abuse

Of course then we have people like Conman Choivo who think they are poor becasue they dont read. If read also they dont understand. Only Conman Choivo will succeed because Conman Choivo read a lot finance books since wearing diapers, Conman Choivo can decipher and put together x and y. Conman Choivo only is correct, if you cannot agree then you wrong. You forever be poor.

Note: "Conman Choivo only in correct." Except Icon. Nowadays everything Icon say is also correct. Yes or not, Conman Choivo?

---------

Posted by i3Value > Jan 16, 2019 05:14 PM | Report Abuse X

Hit a few big ones enough. Well done!

Many naive people actually believe people like Warren Buffett everyday find good stocks to make money. Use 'proven' method all stock buy also make money, this world where got poor people some more?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 17:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 17:24 | Report Abuse

Correctloh...people like 3iii everyday make monies....bcos he make reference to his purchase of nestle 15 yrs ago loh...!!

If nestle 2018 is rm 148.00 and 2019 is rm 138.00 he still says he makes alot of monies mah....bcos he don mark to market like raider every mah...if raider has nestle rm 138.00 in yr 2019...raider will say lose rm 10.00 monies in yr 2019...bcos raider mark to market value is rm 148.00 loh..!!

U need to be honest with ur self & not be defensive to tell grandfather story like my cost is rm 14.00 15 yrs ago loh...!!

Posted by i3Value > Jan 16, 2019 05:14 PM | Report Abuse

Hit a few big ones enough. Well done!

Many naive people actually believe people like Warren Buffett everyday find good stocks to make money. Use 'proven' method all stock buy also make money, this world where got poor people some more?

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Posted by stockraider > Jan 16, 2019 04:25 PM | Report Abuse

yes the last time raider make very good meaningful profit on insas loh.....!!

of course u need to buy meaningful amount mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 17:27 | Report Abuse

Fabien Extraordinaire > Jan 16, 2019 05:19 PM | Report Abuse

I look at business fundamentals only, aerospace prospect is good...their track record...good management...strong relationship with major aerospace...decent moat..
=========

ok I have no quarrel....

Posted by i3Value > 2019-01-16 17:47 | Report Abuse

raider, to be fair, that is a 10-bagger and 3iii rode it all the way. A clap worthy achievement. I hope he bought significant amount of nestle.

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Posted by stockraider > Jan 16, 2019 05:24 PM | Report Abuse

Correctloh...people like 3iii everyday make monies....bcos he make reference to his purchase of nestle 15 yrs ago loh...!!

If nestle 2018 is rm 148.00 and 2019 is rm 138.00 he still says he makes alot of monies mah....bcos he don mark to market like raider every mah...if raider has nestle rm 138.00 in yr 2019...raider will say lose rm 10.00 monies in yr 2019...bcos raider mark to market value is rm 148.00 loh..!!

U need to be honest with ur self & not be defensive to tell grandfather story like my cost is rm 14.00 15 yrs ago loh...!!

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-16 18:01 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr. Philip,
Please do not twist and turn the meaning of my writing. I just want to point out your error like many of your errors committed before under Moneylenders Act 1951 interest for an unsecured loan shall not exceed eighteen per centum per annum. Not what you quote without a basis “borrowing to them at huge amounts at 18%+24% rates”

Let’s look into RCECAP financial Report:
The Group’s revenue for the financial year ended (“FYE”) 2018 rose to RM245.9 million, representing an increase of 10.1% from RM223.3 million in FYE 2017. The increase was primarily backed by stable growth in the consumer financing loan base, giving rise to RM212.6 million interest income as compared to RM188.8 million in the previous
financial year. As our market share in consumer financing remains steady, we have expanded our consumer financing loan base from RM1.5 billion in FYE 2017 to RM1.6 billion in FYE 2018.
This work out interest rate for loans to be = 212.6/1600 = 13.28 %

With the increase in borrowings from RM1.2 billion to RM1.3 billion, interest expense has risen by RM7.9 million from RM61.4 million to RM69.3 million in FYE 2018.
The borrowing rate: 69.3/1300 = 5.33%

The profile of the loans and receivables is as follows:
Performing: RM1,195,708,081
1 to 150 days past due but performing: RM 381,001,798
Non-performing: RM 66,679,519
Total: RM 1,643,389,398
Performing loans total: RM1,576,710,000. Interest on performing loan work out to be = 212.6/1576.7= 14.05%

So a commercial bank give you almost no interest in current and saving account and charge a secure loan at 5.33%.and how much they charge for house loans? I still remember when I obtained my first bank loan to purchase my first house and during Asian Financial Crisis 1997 the bank keeps sending me interest rate increase every month till the interest payment is more than the monthly installment and how many businesses closed down because bank suddenly pulled the carpet out from their feet. Since that day onward I never borrow any money from bank again.
Tell me are bank ready to give unsecured loan if someone needed emergency loan to pay for sudden medical emergency for parents and family members?

I rest my case and please do not put words in my mouth “Wow! SSLEE you agree with this? YOU REALLY AGREE WITH LENDING TO IGNORANT PUBLIC AT 18% A YEAR. YOU DONT SEE HOW GAMBLING AND LENDING TO A 20 YEAR OLD KID WHO THINKS HE FOUND FREE MONEY BUT DOESNT REALIZE WHAT 18% INTEREST REALLY MEANS? ”

Thank you

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 18:04 | Report Abuse

RCE? RCE is Azman Hashim personal toy...not for u guys to invest.

Get over it....RCE live or die, AH could not be bothered.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 18:21 | Report Abuse

I understand what u say lah...!! yes credit to be given to 3iii for him buying into nestle at rm 14.00, 14 yrs ago & he has make a 10 baggers at say compound rate say 22% pa for the 14 yrs loh..!!

Now it is 2019 & going fwd, u cannot every time, when u under perform each yr...it still fallback to ur grandfather success 15 yrs ago loh..!!
We need to look at sustainability to help the newbies mah..!!

Another thing, if this 3iii keep quiet & lay low ok....but this fellow when around everyone belittling margin of safety investor like raider acheiving 10% to 14% pa as lousy, but he did not know for the yr he is achieving 6% to 7% pa average return loh...!!

Thats why raider tembak 3iii loh....for his arrogrance after all most of margin of safety investor come out from the same sifu of ben graham including warren buffet loh...!!

If Ben Graham, is that lousy, like 3iii says, do u think warren buffet want to give so much tribute to his sifu leh...???

Posted by i3Value > Jan 16, 2019 05:47 PM | Report Abuse

raider, to be fair, that is a 10-bagger and 3iii rode it all the way. A clap worthy achievement. I hope he bought significant amount of nestle.

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Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-16 18:24 | Report Abuse

Fabien, for me I look at it this way, of course I may be wrong, because I dont follow SAM engineering very closely or the airline industry either.

Now that I have more time to digest the aerospace industry, lets look at this:

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xpar/air/quote.html
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ba/quote.html

SAM specializes in manufacture engine casings. Assuming there are 2 engines per A320 neo (which i think brought their sales up), the main rise in revenue was due to deliverables of airbus which delivered on time.

if for a320 NEO we are looking at 386 deliveries this year. As I cant find the breakdown of SAM deliveries into engine casings and revenue gain projection. So I cant really extrapolate which part is the big earning point.

Anyway... you can use broad strokes and exact DCF figures here of the entire lifetime of A320 deliverables, backlog through entire lifetime of plane deliveries, their cost per plane (a320 neo costs 110 million usd, you can fraction it out to the cost per engine casing i guess)

From here you can have a good guess how big the market for SAM will be in the future.

However... if you look at your end customers for example,

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/5099.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3786.jsp
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/C6L.SI/financials?p=C6L.SI

you quickly notice one thing, its a competitive game , where you cant actually build planes to go everywhere. There is always certain routes which are flyable, and AA is good at quickly canceling routes that are not workable. Then they are also selling planes, to reduce over utilization exposure.

Worse problem is, after the fantastic rise is revenue for Boeing and Airbus, they are showing slowing growth and reducing revenue. You can do your own analysis from there.

Aka --> IF APPLE TELLS YOU THEY ARE SELLING LESS PHONES, DO YOU THINK INARI WILL ALSO START TO SELL LESS SEMICONDUCTORS?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 18:31 | Report Abuse

Raider don see what is the issue loh, ethics is ethics..religion is religion..politics is politics...u do not need to mix them like rojak loh...!!

That means all listed good business as long as it is legal u go ahead n invest loh...!!

This is the most efficient where & most business like manner loh, if u mixed ethics, religion, politics, ur inlaw relationship....etc in investment u can get a bunch of rubbish loh...!!

Yes be religious...be ethical on your personal basis but don kacau ur careful investment selection loh...!!

Most important if u make monies donate some to the unfortunate mah..!!

Posted by Sslee > Jan 16, 2019 06:01 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Mr. Philip,
Please do not twist and turn the meaning of my writing. I just want to point out your error like many of your errors committed before under Moneylenders Act 1951 interest for an unsecured loan shall not exceed eighteen per centum per annum. Not what you quote without a basis “borrowing to them at huge amounts at 18%+24% rates”

Let’s look into RCECAP financial Report:
The Group’s revenue for the financial year ended (“FYE”) 2018 rose to RM245.9 million, representing an increase of 10.1% from RM223.3 million in FYE 2017. The increase was primarily backed by stable growth in the consumer financing loan base, giving rise to RM212.6 million interest income as compared to RM188.8 million in the previous
financial year. As our market share in consumer financing remains steady, we have expanded our consumer financing loan base from RM1.5 billion in FYE 2017 to RM1.6 billion in FYE 2018.
This work out interest rate for loans to be = 212.6/1600 = 13.28 %

With the increase in borrowings from RM1.2 billion to RM1.3 billion, interest expense has risen by RM7.9 million from RM61.4 million to RM69.3 million in FYE 2018.
The borrowing rate: 69.3/1300 = 5.33%

The profile of the loans and receivables is as follows:
Performing: RM1,195,708,081
1 to 150 days past due but performing: RM 381,001,798
Non-performing: RM 66,679,519
Total: RM 1,643,389,398
Performing loans total: RM1,576,710,000. Interest on performing loan work out to be = 212.6/1576.7= 14.05%

So a commercial bank give you almost no interest in current and saving account and charge a secure loan at 5.33%.and how much they charge for house loans? I still remember when I obtained my first bank loan to purchase my first house and during Asian Financial Crisis 1997 the bank keeps sending me interest rate increase every month till the interest payment is more than the monthly installment and how many businesses closed down because bank suddenly pulled the carpet out from their feet. Since that day onward I never borrow any money from bank again.
Tell me are bank ready to give unsecured loan if someone needed emergency loan to pay for sudden medical emergency for parents and family members?

I rest my case and please do not put words in my mouth “Wow! SSLEE you agree with this? YOU REALLY AGREE WITH LENDING TO IGNORANT PUBLIC AT 18% A YEAR. YOU DONT SEE HOW GAMBLING AND LENDING TO A 20 YEAR OLD KID WHO THINKS HE FOUND FREE MONEY BUT DOESNT REALIZE WHAT 18% INTEREST REALLY MEANS? ”

Thank you

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 18:44 | Report Abuse

U need to understand this simple business real life loh...!!

Yes Apple sell less handphone does it mean apple going to bankrupt leh ??

Yes Inari sell less component to apple does it mean inari going to bankrupt leh ??

Yes insas will get less profit from inari does it mean insas going to bankrupt leh ??

THE ANSWER ARE NO..!! NO...!!...NO....!! THIS IS BCOS EACH BUSINESS HAS AN ANCHOR VALUE LOH...!!
BUT IF U R A GROWTH STOCK LIKE QL OR NESTLE PEOPLE EXPECT U WILL SELL MORE....BUT U DID NOT....THAT MEANS THE SHARE PRICE WILL FALL VERY BIG, JUST LIKE WHAT HAPPEN TO TOPGLOVE, PADINI & HENGYUAN LOH..!! THIS IS THE PITFALL OF GROWTH INVESTMENT LOH...!!

BUT INSAS U ALREADY HAVE A BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY ANCHOR VALUE, COUPLE WITH VERY LOW EXPECTATION FROM INVESTOR, HENCE A DROP IN SALES WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT, THATS WHY BEN GRAHAM ASK U TO HAVE HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY TO ABSORBED ANY UNFORSEEN SITUATION MAH..!!


The Above is the reply to Mr Long cheeky comment
"Aka --> IF APPLE TELLS YOU THEY ARE SELLING LESS PHONES, DO YOU THINK INARI WILL ALSO START TO SELL LESS SEMICONDUCTORS?"

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 19:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-16 19:32 | Report Abuse

A high PE ratio by itself means that either:

- the valuation is very expensive (where the stock price is high as compared to its EPS) or

- it has such great potential for growth that investors are willing to accord it with a high PE ratio.

In general, the lower the PE ratio, the better it is.



For high growth stocks, their PE ratio if viewed on absolute basis is usually very high.

How do we then decide if it is still "cheap" enough for us to hold or even buy?

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2019-01-16 20:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 16, 2019 06:24 PM | Report Abuse

Fabien, for me I look at it this way, of course I may be wrong, because I dont follow SAM engineering very closely or the airline industry either.


Thanks for the insight, Phillip.

I'll study more over this weekend.

What i have gathered from various reports, some pertinent points:

1) currently there is a backlog in orders worth RM3.1billion. most of the models are in early stage of lifecycles. Airbus and Boeing have combined order backlog of 13k+ aircrafts which will take min 9 years to fulfill all the orders and this does not include new orders over the 9 year period
2) significant contribution will come from their 2 FMS lines to produce nacelle beams
3) Starting from FY2020, will see contribution from additional facility for LEAP-X engine casing manufacturing

Anyway, SAM is in my core holdings. And i dont want the share price to go up because i am still accumulating.

Having said that, it's good to have opposing views. I'll take some time to study more.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-16 21:46 | Report Abuse

Hi Fabien, that is a very smart attitude to life!

Listen to sifus but don't follow them.

Make up your own mind, and decide on your stock principles based on business growth prospects, not on what the sifus tell you.

Most importantly is to read a lot. As much as you can. Business sense can only be increased by reading and absorbing as many similar companies as you can compare with to see the growth prospects, incoming humps and challenges, and future growth triggers.

Reading up also on Barnes aerospace group might be an interesting parallel. They also have 50% in aerospace, and balance in industrial tooling. You would be surprised at the parallels in their businesses. Obviously one is 1 billion myr, and the other is 3 billion USD, but you get the picture

I repeat my saying,

You can't reinvent the wheel, but you sure can remember a good story.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-16 21:56 | Report Abuse

If you ever wrote seriously on it, id really like to read.

Im personally very curious why you and icon8888 etc like it so much.

I personally just figured it had a pretty decent management, in a growing ish industry, with capacity expansion down the line.

But i just cant properly estimate the real economic power or its position, versus say precision castparts.

id like to see what special insight you have into that.


=====
Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Jan 16, 2019 08:36 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 16, 2019 06:24 PM | Report Abuse

Fabien, for me I look at it this way, of course I may be wrong, because I dont follow SAM engineering very closely or the airline industry either.


Thanks for the insight, Phillip.

I'll study more over this weekend.

What i have gathered from various reports, some pertinent points:

1) currently there is a backlog in orders worth RM3.1billion. most of the models are in early stage of lifecycles. Airbus and Boeing have combined order backlog of 13k+ aircrafts which will take min 9 years to fulfill all the orders and this does not include new orders over the 9 year period
2) significant contribution will come from their 2 FMS lines to produce nacelle beams
3) Starting from FY2020, will see contribution from additional facility for LEAP-X engine casing manufacturing

Anyway, SAM is in my core holdings. And i dont want the share price to go up because i am still accumulating.

Having said that, it's good to have opposing views. I'll take some time to study more.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-16 22:08 | Report Abuse

SSLee.

You are very good with numbers and you want exact details. I can accept that. If I said 18%+ on ahlong loans ( which is exactly what unsecured loans are), if I missed a percentage point here and there, if that irks you. Then I apologize. Like I said, I am not good with numbers. But no one ever said you had to be perfect with your numbers to be good in investment.

I repeat be: If we see someone who weighs 300 pounds or 320 pounds, it doesn’t matter – we know they’re fat.

All you need is to understand the logic behind the numbers. If you think rcecap is not an ahlong company then you need to rethink your logic. And if you think all those loans from rcecap is for emergency family loan than you really have another thing coming. Majority of those loans are for frivolous things that they never really needed until they found a lender willing to extend credit.

If you need to borrow money for an emergency, just borrow based on trust. If you trust that person there is no need to extend high credit rates to make it worthwhile. If you don't trust that person, why borrow in the first place?

As for stockraider thinking that any investment in stocks is ok as long as you make money, then my respect for you is below zero.

Investors like you will never do well long term.

Why?

All you have is the habits you cultivate and the character that you observe.

If you build good habits and invest with those habits, your results will reflect that.

If you choose to invest in businessess where the owners and workers earn by victimising the uneducated, the poor, and the addicted, know that the management of those companies usually have reliability issues as well.

You want to be looking for great businessess where the management and workers enjoy going to with every morning, work their hardest for something the believe in.

That is definitely one of my criteria for a wonderful business.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 22:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 23:04 | Report Abuse

don't challenge philips...he is experienced enough....unrealised profits enough....make money lose money , his business...

raid...u are odd, just odd...too odd...

your idea of safety is penny stocks, everyone else idea of safety is blue chips, quality companies, government monopolies...so u are really odd., being so odd, we should call u out.

yes...sometimes, penny stocks grow into blue chips.....that is what investing is about, look for companies with prospects....not buy penny stocks for safety.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-16 23:06 | Report Abuse

From my years of reading i3, I dont think anybody is of long numbers guy level yet except Felicity

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 23:12 | Report Abuse

Posted by Flintstones > Jan 16, 2019 11:06 PM | Report Abuse

From my years of reading i3, I dont think anybody is of long numbers guy level yet except Felicity
========

and the beauty is...it is probably repeatable, high probability of repeat ability. With an attitute that 99% of companies are rubbish...slowly invest in the 1%, low turnover....right temperament, right interest and right work attitude...it should be repeatable for others.

the winning edge....


.only good management stocks
...very low turnover of portfolio
....learn to say NO....



.and if u want to make a real difference, have not more than 5 stocks at a time.

.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-16 23:18 | Report Abuse

Philip guy talk big only loh....our competition todate his Ql is the last todate mah.....!!

Of course still long way to go loh....but i don see he got any special mah....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 16, 2019 11:04 PM | Report Abuse

don't challenge philips...he is experienced enough....unrealised profits enough....make money lose money , his business...

raid...u are odd, just odd...too odd...

your idea of safety is penny stocks, everyone else idea of safety is blue chips, quality companies, government monopolies...so u are really odd., being so odd, we should call u out.

yes...sometimes, penny stocks grow into blue chips.....that is what investing is about, look for companies with prospects....not buy penny stocks for safety.

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-01-16 23:36 | Report Abuse

waow learnt so much from Mr Long Number

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-16 23:40 | Report Abuse

stockraider
9033 posts
Posted by stockraider > Jan 16, 2019 11:18 PM | Report Abuse

Philip guy talk big only loh...

=======

its the process...but u wouldn't know anyway......forget it.....

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-16 23:54 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr. Philip,
Please do not make moral judgment when people are working hard and honestly to apply what they know to make money in stock market. What I most against is people using deceive and pump and dump like “You-Know-Who” where JAKS and SENDAI were promoted by him with "sailang" and margin finance non-stop day and night which had trapped many investors chasing the shares to RM1.80+ and lost a fortune, but he himself made a "killing", again and again, and still has the gut to boast about it and talk cock in i3.
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 2, 2018 01:43 AM | Report Abuse
kc u fail to understand, Jaks and Sendai are the 2 counters I made the most money...and why not? when I know the chong ker.....and I have the killer instinct..........

I even rebuke Mr. Koon when his investment article went against his noble intention of education but more toward manipulation. I even confronted the red chip companies CEO and external auditor during AGM and knowing they lie through their teeth make follow up with SC, Bursa and substantial shareholder to take action.

I subscribe to the view/believe/theory “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” Edmund Burke. “To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men" - Abraham Lincoln

I had to admit that I am obsessive with finding out the truth and nothing but the truth no matter how much the truth hurts. Now I am wondering is this the best approach as there are so many people rather living in their make to believe unreal world than facing the cruel reality like the movie (Matrix). May be I should let them continues with their make believe world instead of awaking them to face the reality.

Thank you
P/S: If you interest in knowing what shape me you are welcome to read the below link.
http://chedet.cc/?p=2387#comment-136954

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-17 00:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-17 00:11 | Report Abuse

qqq,

U r very rude & useless loh...!!

People polite also cannot ah ??

U R real idiot loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 17, 2019 12:07 AM | Report Abuse

sslee

the truth...u are just an idiot....

anyway...never like people who so polite like you....ending every post here with thank you....just like that OTB...same same gene, I guess.

tricky people.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-17 00:17 | Report Abuse

raid....just feel odd la.....reminds me of people with evil intentions...

they always say thank you to their victims....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-17 00:49 | Report Abuse

in places where thank yous are norm...then it is normal and natural....done by sslee here...just feel so unnatural......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-17 07:38 |

Post removed.Why?