Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:30 | Report Abuse

2008 was a walk in the park

Posted by GGecko > 2019-03-30 17:30 | Report Abuse

Ok..yes at its lowest...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:35 | Report Abuse

After that the government set up danaharta and danamodel

Over the subsequent few years, these two entities were major players in the capital market

The younger generation never heard of them

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 17:35 | Report Abuse

Already reported 2019 q4 result is an overall loss for SAPE mah.....!!

All negative losses is already out and reported out in a kitchen sinking exercise for 2019 year end mah, we are looking forward to a wonderful positive result 2020 going fwd, starting with q1, the abundance period are here & coming very soon loh....!!

This is the time, when flowers will be blooming and birds will be singing from 2020 onwards loh....!!

The best thing is that u have position yourself heavily, on the upside buying at this cheap price & lock up for long term loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Mar 30, 2019 4:26 PM | Report Abuse

Gruesome company.

For FY 2019, expect EPS to be still negative (loss).

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 17:40 | Report Abuse

Post 1997. All hell broke loose. Losses faced by many. Truly sad to see those who were caught by this severe crisis. They suffered for many years subsequently.

Some of the stories I can recall.

1. This man invested in properties (not shares). He over-leveraged. When property prices were climbing, owning them made him look smart during that period. In 1997/98, he suddenly found the properties he owned were down in price. His income from other sources diminished. His rentals from the properties decimated as tenants left due to poor businesses. He had to put his properties up for sale at lower prices. He even had to ask his son to return from overseas to start work and thus forgoing his university education halfway.


2. This man made so much money during his stockbroking years. He built a big house. Costs were not an issue as time was so good. When the 1997 Asian Financial crisis came, his business diminished, his clients defaulted payments and he had to be responsible for their losses to his firm. His half built house was up in the market before completion looking for buyer and was eventually sold at a loss. Leverage can be a good friend and a terrible master indeed.

3. This lady operated a small simple business. At the height of the bull market, she neglected her business. It was often closed. She could be found in the local stockbroker. This went on for months. In 1997, she was not her usual self. Having lost almost all of her hard earned life savings, she was in a terrible financial shape.

4. The stock brokers and those in the industry, who were the envy of many during the bull run, faced huge losses threatening their financial survivals.

5. For many, there was no place to hide during the severe downturn in the stock market.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-30 17:41 | Report Abuse

Well I do hope it gets this cheap again, especially property prices... With our low income for fresh grads it's only fair for our generation. And also not to forget sky high education costs. Karma old unkers ! Hahaha

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:41 | Report Abuse

For sapura we are buying for future mah

PNB play. Government will swing juicy deals and assets to them

That is why we bought

Don't keep harping about its traumatic past and existing state of affair

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 17:41 | Report Abuse

Why do need yearn for 1998 depression to give u a 500% upside return for u when SAPE can give u a 1000% return to you over 3 years leh ??

Remember this loh....!!

Good point loh...!!

1st of all the Rm 17 billion is not a stagnant figure, it will grow to as high as Rm 34 billion order book within this 2 yrs loh...!!

2nd the revenue book in rate will grow to some rm 12 billion from around Rm 6 billion, a year going fwd loh....!!

3rd point is that the oil & gas oilfield will pump in 4x more volume over the next 2 to 3 yrs time, that will contribute Rm 600m to Rm 1.2b pa to sapnrg based on their 50% share loh....!!

4th there are potential writeback of impairment of close to Rm 4 billion of impairment previously already provided in the account, as the assets utilisation rate beginning to increase towards 80% to 90% level from the current only 50% mah....!!

5th the balance of the 50% oil field will appreciate from current about Rm 2 billion value to above rm 8 billion as the oil field increases its extraction and also increase in their proven P2 oil reserve loh....!!

6th There will be a financial cost savings from funding cost that can contribute about rm 400m pa to SAPE bottom line loh...!!

7th These figure do not include the potential cost rationalization of SAPE now undertaken loh...!! It is expected another potential cost savings of Rm 400m pa loh..!!

Posted by newbie8080 > Mar 29, 2019 7:08 PM | Report Abuse

@ stockraider

Current order book only RM17 billion.
It will last them for next 10 quarters with average RM1.7 bil per quarter.

Historically, the company average net profit margin in 2014 was the strongest at between 15% to 20%.
Let's be conservative at 15%.

Thus, in the next 10 quarters, assuming the RM17 bil is fully realised, it would have brought in RM2.55 bil excluding any sale or disposal of asset.

Even if assuming at 20% profit margin, total net profit would only be RM3.4 bil for the entire order book of RM17 billion in the next 10 quarters.


HOW TO ACHIEVE YOUR RM3BIL TO RM5BIL PER ANNUM EARNINGS?????????

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 17:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:46 | Report Abuse

Nothing to be fearful

You should be patient

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:46 | Report Abuse

Market is forward looking

They are ignoring the miserable EPS

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 17:47 | Report Abuse

Anyway, in the event that share price tank, it is buying opportunity for me

I am looking forward to that

What to be feared about ?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 17:48 | Report Abuse

DO U NEED TO BE FEARFUL WHEN U HAVE IRON BALLS AND REALLY COCKSURE ABOUT IT AS SUREWIN LEH ??

WHY ? WHY ? TELL ME WHY ??

Investment in sapnrg are real smart move loh...!!

Thats why PNB is willing to jump in and stick their neck out bcos there are feed of insider priviledge info seeking their support loh...!!

Just ask yourself the investment manager of PNB are just salaried workers, if sapnrg collapse their jobs are less affected compare to them opening their big mouth asking the Board Of Directors to increase exposure in sapnrg loh..!!...why they dare leh ??

Posted by stockraider > Mar 12, 2019 11:24 PM | Report Abuse X

My friend paperlane,

Use head to think lah.....!!

PNB willing to increase their shares from only 12% to 48% ...that means the prospect very very good mah....!!

They don have to increase their stakes to more than their share of 12% mah......!!

Who dares to stick their neck out to propose increasing their stakes, after seeing tabung haji, felda and MARA all got fired for fail investment performance leh ??

They must have positive insider info....they must done deep due diligence to verify, confirm and...check the viability b4 they dare mah....!!

Don forget it is new PH govt...where they are not so lenient like BN mah......!!

furthermore the board of directors of PNB are big guns like zeti they are no mickey mouse directors...they are financial savvys and understand what is value & growth mah...!!

Thus have confidence loh....!!

Raider bro.need your opinion.this company heavily in debt. Even with pnb new fund injection,with 16bil contract,what makes you think it can revive. 16bil contract,what's the margin like,I bet low single digit. Their debt even with latest fund raising still high! Mgt is lousy,this why it was in slump . What makes the so call expert drawing few million salary every yr again and again?? Why pnb want to save them ???


Posted by 3iii > Mar 30, 2019 5:45 PM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 For sapura we are buying for future mah

PNB play. Gov r Meng will swing juicy deals and assets to them

That is why we bought

Don't keep harping about its traumatic past and existing state of affair

Its EPS and DPS for 2020 are projected to be 0.5 sen and 0 sen.

AT 33.5 sen today, it is trading at a prospective 2020 PE of 67x with DY of 0%.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 17:54 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

On the lower quality borrowers, my view and his is about the same.

I felt its more than compensated by the higher rate. He felt I should probably think about it deeper.

The thing that was a perspective shift for me was the collateral being terbalik.

Well maybe it was just the fact we were talking face to face. Next time then.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 17:58 | Report Abuse

Raider.

I really want support you for sapura. But just too hard for me. I'm not smart enough.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 18:02 | Report Abuse

CHIVO,

Thanks for your morale support
It is ok ...u are still young there are plenty of opportunity in the future but please mark up SAPE for your learning journey loh....!!


Posted by Choivo Capital > Mar 30, 2019 5:58 PM | Report Abuse

Raider.

I really want support you for sapura. But just too hard for me. I'm not smart enough.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 18:04 | Report Abuse

Everytime I read 1997 horror stories, I just get goosebumps. I can't even imagine index dropping 80% or more.

It really explains why the previous generation is so traumatised about stocks, and consider it so risky.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 18:11 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by Choivo Capital > Mar 30, 2019 5:54 PM | Report Abuse

Phillip,

On the lower quality borrowers, my view and his is about the same.

I felt its more than compensated by the higher rate. He felt I should probably think about it deeper.

The thing that was a perspective shift for me was the collateral being terbalik.

Well maybe it was just the fact we were talking face to face. Next time then
>>>



Between RCECAP and Aeon Credit, which do you prefer, and your reasons?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 18:11 | Report Abuse

This is Raider view : In order to beat the horror, u must jump into the horror 1st mah.....!!

Sapura price has collapse from Rm 4.00 to 30 sen within a period of less than 2 yrs mah.....!!

The fall may even be greater than 1997-1998 depression mah....!!

So why do u need to fear anymore leh ...when worse already happen leh ??
Already reported 2019 q4 result is an overall loss for SAPE mah.....!!

All negative losses is already out and reported out in a kitchen sinking exercise for 2019 year end mah, we are looking forward to a wonderful positive result 2020 going fwd, starting with q1, the abundance period are here & coming very soon loh....!!

This is the time, when flowers will be blooming and birds will be singing from 2020 onwards loh....!!

The best thing is that u have position yourself heavily, on the upside buying at this cheap price & lock up for long term loh...!!


Posted by Choivo Capital > Mar 30, 2019 6:04 PM | Report Abuse

Everytime I read 1997 horror stories, I just get goosebumps. I can't even imagine index dropping 80% or more.

It really explains why the previous generation is so traumatised about stocks, and consider it so risky.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 18:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 18:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockguru123 > Mar 30, 2019 5:32 PM | Report Abuse

to become value investor , we must get rid the emotion, stay focus at fact, read more, study more , do own research n ndependent rhinking .Through this fundamental characteristic, we stand a chance to sustain profitability in long run. any company also having their up n down cycle or trap.in unexpected business or economy situation. but if you can foresight the potential of the "crown jewel "stock , you can make ton of money. for me , SAPE is one of the stock who undergo a total radical restructuring in term of debt ratio, financing aspect , collaboration wth prominent player and expand the nextwork & infrastructure. Why i said SAPE stock can make you a great return in investment coz this stock suffered pessimism outlook previously and stock price been plummeted to the floor.. based on fact , economical aspect, technical n fundamental analysis, this SAPE is SHOUTING BUY & stand a chnace to big win wth their new prospects after series of restructuring, the only loss side is SAPE go PN17 which for me unlikely. That the reason i rated SAPE IS "SHOUTING BUY "

***I been bought a lot of SAPE share & my SHOUTING BUY recommendation on SAPE doesnt mean encouraging anyone to buy or sell.it just purely sharing the info whicb hope everyone can gain from it tq



Posted by stockguru123 > Mar 30, 2019 5:36 PM | Report Abuse

based on my comprehensive analysis on SAPE, SAPE will reporting profit wth increase iin revenue as well on their 1st quarter 2020 (end on 30 April 2019) which the result will announce in 4th week in June 2019

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 18:17 | Report Abuse

2018 transformed me

I have become very patient

: )

Posted by cheoky > 2019-03-30 18:19 | Report Abuse

Sap crowd jewel was sold half. Give u consolation .5cents. what forward looking is there? Peak earning when oil USD 120 is the future
+Bonus on interest saving.

Can help Philips promote gkent bo. That is real forward looking with upside

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-30 18:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 18:27 | Report Abuse

My realised loss in 2018 was 25%

Was that big ?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 18:28 | Report Abuse

Raider is going strong mah...!!

What losing pants leh ??

Posted by 3iii > Mar 30, 2019 6:22 PM | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 30, 2019 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

2018 transformed me

I have become very patient

: )

>>>


What caused your change?

Your big losses? or your big wins?


raider lost his pants in 2018, swimming naked. Of course, he doesn't like to talk about this.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 18:36 | Report Abuse

Is sapura brown field or Greenfield leh ???

Definitely brownfield already extracting oil mah....!!

Its revenue is above Rm 6 billion and going to grow to Rm 10 to Rm 12 billion for 2020 mah....!!

When the price of SAPE is cheap with big margin of safety u call it good opportunity investment & not speculation bcos it is back up by fundamental loh...!!

Remember this loh....!!

Good point loh...!!

1st of all the Rm 17 billion is not a stagnant figure, it will grow to as high as Rm 34 billion order book within this 2 yrs loh...!!

2nd the revenue book in rate will grow to some rm 12 billion from around Rm 6 billion, a year going fwd loh....!!

3rd point is that the oil & gas oilfield will pump in 4x more volume over the next 2 to 3 yrs time, that will contribute Rm 600m to Rm 1.2b pa to sapnrg based on their 50% share loh....!!

4th there are potential writeback of impairment of close to Rm 4 billion of impairment previously already provided in the account, as the assets utilisation rate beginning to increase towards 80% to 90% level from the current only 50% mah....!!

5th the balance of the 50% oil field will appreciate from current about Rm 2 billion value to above rm 8 billion as the oil field increases its extraction and also increase in their proven P2 oil reserve loh....!!

6th There will be a financial cost savings from funding cost that can contribute about rm 400m pa to SAPE bottom line loh...!!

7th These figure do not include the potential cost rationalization of SAPE now undertaken loh...!! It is expected another potential cost savings of Rm 400m pa loh..!!


Posted by 3iii > Mar 30, 2019 6:27 PM | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by GoodTrade > Mar 30, 2019 6:22 PM | Report Abuse

Let us talk about a simple business sense ... It applies to every businesses ... A simple example for a durian orchard, the business owner of this durian orchard definitely earn more money than their labourers ( outsourcing jobs ), they won't outsource it in case it's so lucrative or higher profit margin than their main business ... this will apply to other businesses like Palm Oil or Oil n Gas industries ... So, the key point is, Oil n Gas producing business is more lucrative than it's servicing businesses ... Invest in a company that owns oil fiend n producing crude oil ... Hv a nice weekend ...

>>>

Exploration business is speculative.

Servicing the oil industry is cyclical, competitive and capital intensive.

All these service providers will need to maintain and repair their OSVs. Some may need to buy new OSVs.

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2019-03-30 18:48 | Report Abuse

PNB

Khazana had good intentions for Malaysian Airline too

See what happened

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2019-03-30 18:50 | Report Abuse

Pathetic fallacy

3 year time wat may happen to oil price?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 18:59 | Report Abuse

U need to understand the difference between MAS v Sapnrg loh...!!

Why MAS failed so many time leh ??
This is bcos the Govt was conned by the MAS employees that Malaysian boleh... many time mah....!!
It is tak boleh bcos u cannot mix politic with business...just look at Proton after taken over by GEELY...it is started to do well loh..!!

Why SAPNRG will succeed leh ??
Bcos the Management already realised they need help, thats why they sold 50% of their oilfield to OMV loh...!!
This reform is equivalent to like MAS selling 50% of their airline business to SIA loh....!!
The determination to success is already seen in SAPE within their reform plan loh....!!

Posted by OrlandoOIL > Mar 30, 2019 6:48 PM | Report Abuse

PNB

Khazana had good intentions for Malaysian Airline too

See what happened

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:09 | Report Abuse

Icon, comeon. 98 was the best! All in. I miss tht period, I was too young, not having enough capital... Damn, i miss those years. Pbbank selling like pasar malam paper

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:14 | Report Abuse

Danaharta now under. Prokhas. Prokhas control danainfra, sjpp, etc if you notice

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:21 | Report Abuse

Raider bro, only reason i putting my hard earn money into sapng is because of PNB. PNB is chaired by our top ex governor. I believe sje wont let me down.

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:24 | Report Abuse

Choivo. Harta if you met Mr. KWAN in person you shld know, it is so damn undervalued!! Mkt judge it wrongly, most analysts are so naive asking them on cost and price. So naive. PE50 also to be undervalued. I wont tell you why, i just know it after seeing them in person. Haha.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 19:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:29 | Report Abuse

Choivo, you really need to think deeper and think harder. Our education systems spoil your mind half. Look beyond numbers! I always love to read Dr. NEOH advise when im in doubt. DR. NEOH said before, stock investing is a simple math game,. Max to loss is 100%, and you got no max on the upside! Think deeper my friend. Try get Dr. NEOH ARTICLES, he is real damn good!

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:31 | Report Abuse

Raider bro, sapng i dont plan to add aggressive as you do. Looking at all planning in activities and cashflows projections, the real turnaround is actually in 2021. Buying it next year i guess still can ride the bandwagon. But not too big for now. I would have my big portion now in myeg, and johotin. Harta will be a long game to do dollar cost average investment

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:32 | Report Abuse

Raider bro, i trust your pick. I know when you speak, you meant your words. I studied it, by reducing borrowing cost and add on impairments reversal plus extra profit, it should do well 2019 also

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 19:33 | Report Abuse

3iii,

Both of them should face npl spikes during recession. Although if you look at aeoncr, it's not that bad.

Business wise. I'd prefer aeoncr as theirs just have so much more room to growth. Motorcycles sales are growing at close to double digit each year.

And the worse off the economy the more people will ride motor. Its easily 10x cheaper including maintainence and fuel.

And the thing about motorbikes. Is that even the poor people don't like to buy second hand. They would rather get a motor bike hire-purchase at 1.5% per month to buy a 5k hike.

Rce, if I'm right. And if the ir didn't lie to me, and less than 1% of the loan book is from contract staff, should be safer during recession.

Because if economy is bad. Gov servants sure won't resign, neither will they ever get fired. And if that is the case, every month your salary cut for me.

But, unlikely to have any growth more than gdp. Esp since govt slowing down hiring.

But given the valaution. Should be ok.

Rce main risk is they don't collect the money in their own, it needs to go through angkasa and the co-ops. So there is a very clear black Swan there.

Aeoncr have a very strong team for collections. Since they rely on people actually banking in the money monthly.

Aeoncr is the better bsuienss I think. More diverse, less black Swan points.

Personally I own both. Rce is alot more than aeon though. But I'm always looking to buy more aeoncr.

Posted by probability > 2019-03-30 19:37 | Report Abuse

myeg is a gem - blockchain is picking up

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/my-say-make-my-palm-oil-great-brand

As a result, olive oil is one of the most adulterated food products in the world. In 1981, more than 600 people died in an epidemic that spread across Spain. “Olive oil”, adulterated with industrial colza oil (from rapeseed), was blamed. In 2016, The New York Times warned, “Much of the extra-virgin Italian olive oil on the market is not Italian or virgin.”

To protect this high-value oil from fraud, Spain is introducing blockchain technology to trace all stages of extra virgin olive oil production and distribution.
...................

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-30 19:39 | Report Abuse

I notice u r very positive on HARTA despite its PE 40x still very high after the huge selldown...and your bullish comment on their new special gloves...!!

Do u not ;

1. Worry there will be teething problem on this new gloves ??
2. What if competitor like topglove & supermax just simply copied?.
3. The marketing may encounter resistance like product registration.
4. Can this new gloves the game changer to Harta ??

Maybe u can enlighthen me...i remember we make alot of monies on KESM despite 3iii bad mouth the stock, i hope we can do something successful again

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:55 | Report Abuse

Raider. Thts because i met both Mr. KWAN in person. After speaking to them, for me PE40, 50 also cheap. U got to know how efficient is their factories, their productions line are state of arts, can easily switch to nitrile, to natural rubber, to antimicro, anything you name it. Its their technology tht gives them the edge. I still remembered many years ago, harta introduce this nitrile. Everyone still sleeping! See where is topglov now, where is kossan now, where is supermx now?? Thniking of producing more gloves is not the answer anymore

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:57 | Report Abuse

Some of the gloves companies really need to think harder. Gloves is no longer huge number games. If your competitors can sell a glove killing bacteria at almost same price, with patent. You think who gonna get the winner gets all mkt shares

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 19:59 | Report Abuse

U look at how many factories top glove have, how many harta have. How efficiently both running them

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-30 20:08 | Report Abuse

Paperplane,

What is the size of the surgical glove market in the US?

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-30 20:11 | Report Abuse

paperplane don't promote lah... now so cheap you can buy more

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-30 20:12 | Report Abuse

I give you a hint choivo boy, with increasing aging population globally , more people will need to go to hospital. and by 2026 the disposable glove market will reach 18.7 billion USD

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-03-30 20:15 | Report Abuse

Don't Everyday warren Buffett moat moat moat margin of safety etc

For example, think about the following :

“Patience... followed by pretty aggressive conduct. It is given to human beings who work hard at it—who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet — that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple.”

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 20:19 | Report Abuse

Choivo, some info is p&c, i suggest you read more. I cant share too much details.... Easily can be find i guess. Haha

Posted by paperplane > 2019-03-30 20:24 | Report Abuse

Invest Malaysia got tht top glov rpt right, read it