Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 10:01 | Report Abuse

Please share your thoughts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 10:11 | Report Abuse

Anyone thinks this article is useful ?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 10:54 | Report Abuse

Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020, I m glad that you like this article.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 11:28 | Report Abuse

Investor1458, I m glad that you found this article helpful

Posted by probability > 2020-02-16 11:28 | Report Abuse

look at our GDP growth rate recently...and Germany which was almost nil...
it will be increasingly difficult to have good returns in the future that central bank will reduce interest to extreme low level like in Japan , Sweden...

At such low risk-free return rate, valuation of high certainty recurring earnings (25 years) from a utility business will be much higher...

JAKS price has only one direction as the years progress due to increasingly lower risk-free interest rate.

Posted by probability > 2020-02-16 11:32 | Report Abuse

All these stimulus by the malaysian govn without real increase in productivity will only weaken the RM against U.S$ in the future.....

as such keeping a US$ cash flow stock in portfolio would be a must

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 11:37 | Report Abuse

30% holding make an average of $ 300 million a year, sure or not?

$ 300 million a year sounds like 100% holding................we are talking about after depreciation and interest costs, are we not?

Posted by Ng Chian Zhong > 2020-02-16 12:28 | Report Abuse

Even if you take the most conservative valuation but still give you RM 4 valuation price. At of today price at RM 1.45 it just a huge bargain!

Posted by Taehyung > 2020-02-16 12:47 | Report Abuse

Simply can't believe ! haha

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 12:51 | Report Abuse

Vietnam give u US$ meh? Vietnam will give u in Vietnamese dong lah.......US$ is just a convenient conversion..........

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 12:53 | Report Abuse

is qqq3333333333 qqq3? qqq3 should have read my articles to know the answer

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 13:03 | Report Abuse

I have to use new name because old name keep getting incorrect password message..............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 13:10 | Report Abuse

I just want u to check your workings again.........also, u can forget about the 40% option ...........its not finalised and will be based on re-negotiated price if it happens....

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 13:14 | Report Abuse

Jaks is close to the previous President who has passed away.........Jaks has no more leverage, and u can say the plant is totally under Chinese control..............Jaks is best described as a passive investor now.........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 13:16 | Report Abuse

If the auditors decide Jaks has no influence and can only adopt dividend accounting and not associated company accounting............then its another ball game........

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 13:27 | Report Abuse

Jaks currently controls 50% of JHDP with 3 out of 5 board seats. Passive investor ??

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 13:35 | Report Abuse

10% option is based on cost plus carrying costs.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 13:37 | Report Abuse

qqq3 I feel shameful answering you knowing that you purposely downgrading Jaks after you have sold. You used to be super optimistic about Jaks.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 13:57 | Report Abuse

Jaks will own at least 30% of JV, more than the 20% threshold for equity accounting of JV or associate companies. How can auditors so decide?? qqq3, what is your intention here ??

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 13:58 | Report Abuse

Talking bad after disposal is not a respectable behaviour

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 14:15 | Report Abuse

KHDP is Jaks vehicle.....it is not where the plant is.........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 14:16 | Report Abuse

sted by DK66 > Feb 16, 2020 1:35 PM | Report Abuse

10% option is based on cost plus carrying costs.
===============


as for the 10%, nothing is finalised......

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 14:40 | Report Abuse

qqq3, you have proven that you do not know anything about JHDP.....

--------------------
qqq33333333 KHDP is Jaks vehicle.....it is not where the plant is.........
16/02/2020 2:15 PM

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 14:43 | Report Abuse

they foot the bill, did every thing...........let u control meh? u think Chinese are idiots meh?....some more your contact passed away already.......

Posted by qq44 > 2020-02-16 14:46 | Report Abuse

If Jaks good why must Razali Merican sold and KYY talked bad?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 14:46 | Report Abuse

qqq3, you have already answered such kind of question yourself.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 14:47 | Report Abuse

qq44 also qqq3 ???

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 14:48 | Report Abuse

at one time, the Chinese have to hide behind Jaks...........now, still need to hide behind Jaks meh? Now, the Vietnam officials are no longer afraid to deal directly with the Chinese.............

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 14:49 | Report Abuse

qq44 is not me/qqq3/stockman

Posted by qq44 > 2020-02-16 14:51 | Report Abuse

JAKS' future is hopeless - Koon Yew Yin
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-02-09-story-h1483734882-JAKS_future_is_hopeless_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 14:58 | Report Abuse

I am not predicting share price..........just giving u some thing to consider...........

U already know OTB track record already.........he very one sided one.......

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 14:59 | Report Abuse

To say I m one sided is not fair, I have to write off the entire property segment.

Posted by firehawk > 2020-02-16 14:59 | Report Abuse

DK66 qqq3 I feel shameful answering you knowing that you purposely downgrading Jaks after you have sold. You used to be super optimistic about Jaks.
16/02/2020 1:37 PM
DK66 Talking bad after disposal is not a respectable behaviour
16/02/2020 1:58 PM

~ Not only this one, another "sifu" also behaves similarly ... if they still hold, they will promote it like no tomorrow, if u ask something of doubtful, they will deviate from the real topic, and try to hitting u by talk3 talk4 ....the can deceive newbies or not observant type of readers, but for sharp mind readers, their selfish and hypocritical is actually easily exposed ....

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-16 15:02 | Report Abuse

fireman............giving u some thing to think is not called selfish or hypocritical........its call fair and balanced............

Posted by firehawk > 2020-02-16 15:04 | Report Abuse

my remark is about "sifU" ... sorry for misunderstanding .....

Posted by firehawk > 2020-02-16 15:20 | Report Abuse

can refer to any person with similar characteristics too :D

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-02-16 17:38 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro...if those SIN KA LANs cum naysayers currently badmouthing Ms JAKS without FACTS N FIGURES to back up ...i hope u SIFUs consider them to be TIN KOSONG n no TIEW them...pardon my french !!! ...replying these shallow people only wasting your gas ...might as well save it to warm your tummy ...literally !

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-02-16 17:44 | Report Abuse

after having said this ...i sincerely hope that Ms JAKS will stand up able n capable ( n move up to my 1st TP of 2.50 in a few mths time) so that i can show my middle finger to those undesirable buggers ...and say NA !!

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-16 20:37 | Report Abuse

Taking 50% discount of the RM 5.40 valuation is RM2.70. There is still more than 80% upside from current price.

Posted by edkfc > 2020-02-17 00:18 | Report Abuse

Dk66..thankyou for another outstanding write up. Although this is a compilation , it comes with a new insight on law of averages .This certainly boost our confidence level much more . Also , within two year 40% ownership and with that PE of 15 or more s realistic. Great job !

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-17 08:26 | Report Abuse

edkfc, thank you for your compliment

Posted by paperplane > 2020-02-17 12:08 | Report Abuse

so do OTB and KYY still fight over this ah? haha

Posted by newbie8080 > 2020-02-17 12:14 | Report Abuse

Based on 30% Ownership in JHDP. Value Per share are calculated based on 651m+102m(warrant)=753m shares and 15 times price earnings ratio (PE).
For a more conservative computation.
Just my 2 cents.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-17 12:20 | Report Abuse

Fair enough. Do whatever adjustment to suit your comfort. Please note that 8m warrant has been converted into mother shares by Razali. Total warrants outstanding is 94m.

----------------
newbie8080 Based on 30% Ownership in JHDP. Value Per share are calculated based on 651m+102m(warrant)=753m shares and 15 times price earnings ratio (PE).
For a more conservative computation.
Just my 2 cents.
17/02/2020 12:14 PM

Posted by newbie8080 > 2020-02-17 12:40 | Report Abuse

On the bright side, this counter had hit as high as RM14 during its heydays in 1995.
This price is more than double @DK66 FV.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-17 12:43 | Report Abuse

wow !

Posted by mustinvest > 2020-02-17 16:26 | Report Abuse

rEALLY?

Posted by newbie8080 > 2020-02-17 17:20 | Report Abuse

Try KLSE screener app, set 10 years, drag backwards till 1990s

Posted by newbie8080 > 2020-02-18 17:15 | Report Abuse

@DK66,

Are all the newly developed power plant in Vietnam between 2010-2019, running at maximum capacity?
If the power plant do not run at max capacity, the tariff payment does not offset the balance of the plants unutilised capacity?
Kindly elaborate as I couldn't recall if you had write of this items previously.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-02-18 19:09 | Report Abuse

newbie8080,

It is impossible to operate at 100% availability as you have to make time allowance for maintenance and downtime. The 12% IRR and 8 years payback period given by the management was based on 6500 annual utilization hours (74.2% availability). Vinh Tan 1 registered 7238 annual utilization hours in 2019.

The 2 tiered tariff payment is calculated on;
1. capacity payment - capacity made available regardless of utilization.
2. Energy payment - net output generated

Therefore, while capacity payment is pre-determined and paid with or without operation, energy payment is based on output. ie no output no payment.