10 people like this.

63 comment(s). Last comment by i3lurker 2020-05-14 22:27

johnmasino

771 posts

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-14 16:28 | Report Abuse

Good stuff. Lets hope that PBB will correct their huge mistake

johnmasino

771 posts

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-14 16:28 | Report Abuse

Good stuff. Lets hope that PBB will correct their huge mistake

valuelurker

1,133 posts

Posted by valuelurker > 2020-05-14 16:39 | Report Abuse

Lol dont even know the difference between fcfe and npv and now telling people to value a fixed stream of money using PE lol

Ive said it before and ill say it again, stay within your circle of competence, dont know irr fcf npv discount rate go and invest in an ipp really noob

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 16:43 | Report Abuse

It is clearly stated FCFE, do not simply said it is NPV

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 16:44 | Report Abuse

Im sure PBB is more than capable to differentiate between NPV and FCFE

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 16:53 | Report Abuse

Ehome009 has proven that the amount derived by pbb represents the annual free cash flow discounted at 12%

Kyou

1,225 posts

Posted by Kyou > 2020-05-14 16:59 | Report Abuse

i think PBB is giving PE 3 to Jaks only..

hng33

19,946 posts

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-14 17:17 | Report Abuse

DK66
Your way of presentation is even clearer in these article, well done

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 17:21 | Report Abuse

Hng33, Thank you. why do you think some people want to interpret the FCFE as NPV ?
--------------
hng33 DK66
Your way of presentation is even clearer in these article, well done
14/05/2020 5:17 PM

hng33

19,946 posts

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-14 17:22 | Report Abuse

The payback period Is about matched with Jaks management guideline......Jaks' CEO Andy Ang has indicated during the recent AGM that the power purchase agreement and hence earnings estimate of JHDP was formulated on the basis of 6500 annual utilization hours.Therefore, management guidance of 8 years payback period and 12% IRR were based on 6500 annual utilization hours.

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 17:30 | Report Abuse

The equity cost of JHDP is 25% x USD1.87 x 4.3 = RM2b. To say the RM1.096b is NPV is crazy. Invested RM2b into something worth only today's value (NPV) of RM1b. Immediate loss of RM1b.

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 17:42 | Report Abuse

hng33, can you do it? I do not wish to confront them. Thanks

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 17:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 5:30 PM | Report Abuse

The equity cost of JHDP is 25% x USD1.87 x 4.3 = RM2b. To say the RM1.096b is NPV is crazy. Invested RM2b into something worth only today's value (NPV) of RM1b. Immediate loss of RM1b.
==========


NPV in this case takes into account every things, including the project costs, loan repayments.........it is the surplus from the project.


so, u have NPV of $ 1 billion and 30% of that....that is $ 300 million.....your expected NPV over 20 years, discounted at , I don't know what rate.


In concept PBB is correct..........



the NPV represents....if u invest...u get this much more compared to if u do not invest.............it is a residue figure from the spreadsheet.........it is not some thing tangible....The some thing tangible is what is already shown in your balance sheet...........

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 17:53 | Report Abuse

qqq3, public bank told you he calculated NPV this way ? Don't ruin its name. Nobody calculate NPV this way. PBB said FCFE and you read it as NPV.

----------------------
qqq33333333

NPV in this case takes into account every things, including the project costs, loan repayments.........it is the surplus from the project.


so, u have NPV of $ 1 billion and 30% of that....that is $ 300 million.....your expected NPV over 20 years, discounted at , I don't know what rate.


In concept PBB is correct..........



the NPV represents....if u invest...u get this much more compared to if u do not invest.............it is a residue figure from the spreadsheet.........it is not some thing tangible....The some thing tangible is what is already shown in your balance sheet...........
14/05/2020 5:50 PM

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 17:58 | Report Abuse

DK66 > May 14, 2020 5:53 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3, public bank told you he calculated NPV this way ? Don't ruin its name. Nobody calculate NPV this way. PBB said FCFE and you read it as NPV.

---------

that is what PBB intended every thing to mean.........

I agree with PBB........it is u who does not agree with PBB.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 18:14 | Report Abuse

dk...........

say if u want to negotiate a PPA with me....and we both agree that the return to you shall be 12% of your investments, (not the project cost).....then u go work on a cashflow projections assuming 75% borrowings , 25% equity, discount the figures at 12% and come to zero NPV (Cash outflows equals inflows on a discounted basis) ..........then we agree on the coal prices and tarifs as based on the projections. Now, we have deal.

then, u take the deal...........put into your spreadsheet and discounted at your own cost of funds , say 6%.............so, now, u have the so called NPV of $ 1 billion..........

the NPV here represents the additional assets in your balance sheet after 20 years assuming u invest.

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 19:00 | Report Abuse

qqq3, don't invent NPV. It is not the way. Don't guess your way thru to get a logical answer. NPV works on the future cash flow and discounts them to present value. simple. Don't make it sounds complicated.

I should drop this subject on NPV, a simple method. Anyone else not sure please ask.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 19:01 | Report Abuse

dk

don't pretend........U know exactly what I mean.........

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 19:12 | Report Abuse

dk

don't understand IRR, NPV, want to invest in IPP......?

PBB got a lower figure compared to u, so PBB is wrong?


and everybody pretending they are in lalaland...........

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 19:51 | Report Abuse

actually its very basic concepts....

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 19:57 | Report Abuse

in beginning 2017, PBB had an adjusted NPV of $ 2 , discounted 25% gives a tp of $ 1.50. eventually , the share went to $ 1.80 and collapsed.


since then, the company had many private placements and a revised NPV of $ 1.70 and discounted 30% gives a tp of $ 1.13.

all very fair to me.....


but, there is a problem.....if there are structural/ corporate/ funding issues , the company may not even survive in its present form in next 2 years.

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 20:00 | Report Abuse

so many years, if there are careless conceptual issues, u think PBB do not know meh?

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 20:54 | Report Abuse

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 14, 2020 12:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear All,

From now on, I will keep posting this remark to remind you that you may seek my comment if you wish to clarify what you read in this forum no matter how stupid they are. I will not be responding to comments here unless requested by sincere readers.

I trust most readers here are able to differentiate for themselves comments that are reliable from those that are ridiculous. If you are not sure, ask.

Thank you.

P/S Aseng may help to post this remark frequently. TQ
14/05/2020 8:28 PM

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 21:03 | Report Abuse

dk....stop pretending............u lose money, your business.....don't drag every one down with u..........

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 21:21 | Report Abuse

DK66 Shan Kee Tiow, 我真的希望每个人都有您这样的了解。如此我便不必一直为JAKS辩护。
---------------------------
Shan Kee Tiow DK66
不要吐血,快乐一天也算赚到!我告诉你,其实很多人自以为是,但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate,而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate,也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method(DCF),这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率?贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/(1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式,但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b,以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow(FCF)?原因很简单,8.04b就是NPV,12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m,再以12%的discounted rate(贴现率)计算,你就会找回8.04b的NPV,只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的,因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么?现在NPV?现在投入8b,结果说NPV是1b,我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价,说target price是npv(现金价值),倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗?因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来,发电厂正要完成,就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累!我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的,而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢
14/05/2020 9:17 PM

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 21:22 | Report Abuse

qqq3, stop pretending to be the good guy. You are already very well known.

Ehome009

89 posts

Posted by Ehome009 > 2020-05-14 21:25 | Report Abuse

qqq333 & i3lurker,

Shan Kee Tiow has posted by far the best explanation on IRR & NPV in laymen term. Hopefully u all can digest it. Thank you.

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 21:28 |

Post removed.Why?

elbrutus

1,454 posts

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-14 21:32 | Report Abuse

yeaaaaa...good riddance....sayonara...aufwidenshen...ciao....p..s off

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 21:34 | Report Abuse

ehome, it's not difficult.... just think about it.... and don't challenge PBB. u are wrong, PBB is correct at least based on information supplied to them by management

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 21:37 | Report Abuse

hmm Public Bank sure 100% sue

of course Public Bank just dun know that you are claiming Public Bank made an error

I can confirm that Public Bank are always very particular on this.

If Public Bank know they will sue.

can someone please inform Public Bank that someone is damaging their reputation?

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 21:39 |

Post removed.Why?

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 21:40 | Report Abuse

ehome... PBB figures are based on information given to them by management..... if u insist the plant can make $1 a year... then managent and PBB are wrong. That is the summary as things stand

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 21:41 | Report Abuse

$1 billion, not $1... correction above

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 21:43 |

Post removed.Why?

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 21:45 | Report Abuse

elbrutus bro, are you scared ?

Ehome009

89 posts

Posted by Ehome009 > 2020-05-14 21:47 | Report Abuse

qqq333,
Please read carefully what Shan Kee Tiow has written, it's self explanatory.

Please be true to yourself, does his explanation and reasoning make sense?

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 21:48 | Report Abuse

I know enough about cash flows and Jaks to know PBB figures are based on what makes management and conceptually at least, they are correct

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 21:50 |

Post removed.Why?

qqq33333333

3,053 posts

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 21:51 | Report Abuse

if Otb thinks his margin calculations are better, or if people think Jaks management misled them... then buy and keep.... but don't drag others down the drain

Ehome009

89 posts

Posted by Ehome009 > 2020-05-14 21:53 | Report Abuse

qqq333,
I am talking about facts, never intend to challenge PBB, i just want to point out the mistake made by the analyst. We are human being and bound to make mistake, so do u.

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 21:53 | Report Abuse

I wrote the article, sue me

Ehome009

89 posts

Posted by Ehome009 > 2020-05-14 21:56 | Report Abuse

Lol, when u can't refute, u use threatening method that the authority will go after me for spreading lies. Hahahaha

elbrutus

1,454 posts

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-14 21:59 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro ...just p.. in my pants !!!

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 21:59 |

Post removed.Why?

DK66

4,269 posts

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:00 | Report Abuse

Ehome009, a widely used tactic. You can ask OTB. He was threatened a few times.

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 22:01 | Report Abuse

IBs use Valuation Programs
cannot make mistake one.

never ever claim any IB make mistake

just say you disagree.

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 22:05 | Report Abuse

dk66

you are very hostile
no one is threatening you.
You think the whole world wants to fight you.

dk66, you threaten yourself.
I am telling you how to disagree with Public Bank.

Dun piss and poo inside Public Bank pond and think that you can get away with it.

There are consequences to you messing with Public Bank reputation.

In fact, any Public Bank shareholder can sue you, any Public Bank shareholder has locus standi.
You damaged a Public bank shareholders' investment.

Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:00 PM | Report Abuse
Ehome009, a widely used tactic. You can ask OTB. He was threatened a few times.

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 22:06 | Report Abuse

In fact, any Public Bank shareholder can sue you, any Public Bank shareholder has locus standi.
You damaged a Public bank shareholders' investment.

Please be aware that there are plenty of fanatic Public Bank shareholders inside i3.

Think carefully

i3lurker

13,680 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 22:07 | Report Abuse

Dun piss and poo inside Public Bank pond and think that you can get away with it.

Post a Comment
Market Buzz