Didnt expect Ben Tan to publish an article after the prices drop so drastically, since all the supporters are long gone in the forum. Thanks for the article, allowing us to look from another perspective.
FCTITAN, I doubt they have left. I think everybody is just speechless and dumbstruck right now. The current market prices of the Malaysian glovemakers literally make no sense. For comparison, Intco's and Sri Trang's prices have both doubled over the last 4 months.
Ben, it doesn't make sense to catch a falling knife now does it? The chart doesn't lie. Whether is is IB's or PTD's selling, what difference does it make?
Price is the price. No point fighting or arguing. Throwing a tantrum like Fool Yew Yin isn't going to work. The banks can see the order book, so they know that there is no one left to push these counters up.
Last year was the only year that all forms of short selling was banned, combined with low oil prices and Covid, creating a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
If you'd followed a trading plan carefully, you'd stay clear of glove stock (stonks?), at least until Covid is over (advise to new investors).
With regards to older investors, that bought last year from March - May, you are still sitting on a hefty profit, so why worry (until it goes negative)?
As a matter of fact, those that did the pushing up last year (most likely the IB's themselves), with some foreign funds, need to sell to dumb money (retailers), so they can book those juicy profits, to buy the latest Florida condo, Mercedes Benz GLS, Rolex GMT, and RM5000 bordeaux wine. The shops don't accept Supermax shares. Only cash, credit or bitcoin (in some cases).
It seems like we have very different understanding of what investment means. Which is perfectly fine of course - different people have different understanding of things.
It appears that your asset allocation plan is a lot closer to what I would call trading/speculating rather than investing. As mentioned, this is fine and it appears that this is something many active participants in the Malaysian stock market (especially nowadays) consider a viable strategy.
From my perspective the market price is the last thing I look at once I have verified that the prospects of a business are good/great. If I am late, or if for some other reason I estimate that based on the business prospects the market price is too expensive, I won't invest. On the other hand, if I believe the market price is justified based on the business prospects, I am happy to buy a part of that business at the offered price. In my analysis, certain companies I have written a few times in the last few months about, became attractively priced around late November/early December last year, based on their business prospects.
In a properly functioning market, there won't be significant discrepancies between the true value of a company and its market price. An investor would be happy to find a bargain at 15-20% discount. The case is very different here, hence my quick post.
It seems like we have very different understanding of what investment means. Which is perfectly fine of course - different people have different understanding of things.
-No, I think we both understand each other perfectly. Whether you trade or invest, the end-goal is the same - make money, not lose money.
You can invest, just like trading - WISELY. That means being patient. If you want to buy glove stocks (to invest), wait for the sell-off to subside.
arv18, I humbly disagree. You seem to not understand where I am coming from.
Based on business prospects, a wise (to use your term) entry price on certain stocks I have written about, occurred during the period I mentioned. Extra market price manipulation, such as enormous short positions (biggest in the history of Bursa by value) or mispricing of derivative products, are neither something that can be predicted, nor something that has any relevance to the prospects of the business. I hope this explains things better.
The fundamental issue is a share is a digital/physical piece of paper that you need to convince someone else is worth more, to sell to at a higher price than you bought it at.
Now if for whatever reason, there is no one left to buy higher (bid up), you have to drop your asking price, lower.
Most of these call warrants expiring this wee kwere issued after Jun-2020; which coincided with the superbull run of TopGlove price from RM5 to RM10; and right smack at halfway point of 6mth (warrant tenor), Sept-2020, TopGlove price started the long downtrend.
Call warrants is just a call option, obviously issuers wont be selling a naked option when issued. They will have to delta hedge, which mean they will need to buy mothershares to hedge the warrant they sold to retailers. As the price go up, more ppl buying warrant, and more mothershares issuers need to buy to hedge. Hence the vicious cycle of TopGlove price of up and up.
And JPM obviously has spotted this, and started the RM3.5 price target and the big short on 4-Jan.
Nonetheless, it still surprise me, how fierce the sell down has been this week.
arv18, herein lies the difference between our understanding of what investments represent. My goal when buying part of a business is not to find a bigger fool who would pay more for the same piece of the business. This is what traders/speculators try to do.
While I appreciate your well thoughts, "hoping" and "an uncle said something last week" are not, and must never be, a part of the process of investing. They are usually what you would do when you play mahjong over CNY or when you try your luck in Genting.
You remind me of a fresh-faced wide eyed (innocent) investor that has just turned 18, made a few bucks in the stock market last year and is here to preach.
goldenluck16, BeLikeBuffett, thank you for your comments.
BeLikeBuffett, indeed it appears that this is what JPM (or whoever else the short seller is) have been looking at. Interestingly though, they started covering their shorts quite urgently the last couple of weeks at a significant loss. It is possible they might have gotten some of the shares recalled by the borrowers, it is also possible that they have not been expecting this deep sell-off either.
I have a sad feeling Ben the "long-term" investor is margin'd up to his eyeballs like Fool You 'Margin Call' Yin.
Medical professionals have yet to name it but non-stop articles about gloves are a symptom of the stress caused by drastically declining portfolio value due to the use of margin (and a lack of diversification).
Usually the articles are written when the stocks begin declining, NOT before (Ben's first blog post being Dec 11 2020).
This big gloves created too many free floted shares around. Like MRT trains, all passengers standing in out at every train stations stop. Not like a cruise ship where the passengers can enjoy long term stays. Lack of interest from long term local and foreign big players ...
TA & FA comes hand in hand...a wise investor uses TA first then FA...people can say anything they want, but chart will never lie...an example of wise investor i would say is OTB who has 23++ years experience in stock market has given a bearish remark for gloves since Dec 2020 and has confirmed that with his subscribers...get someone who can advice you accordingly and teach one two about risk management and diversification with STOP LOSS rule, that being the most basic thing a wise investor should keep in mind..
CCCL, I would say the problem is a lot more basic. The Malaysian market by design encourages short-term gambling-like behaviour due to small number of market participants, imperfect information availability, low public financial literacy, and lack of any tax on capital gains or dividends. The difference between now and the situation at other times is that since last year liquidity has been available more readily to a larger number of retailers due to cash handouts, low interest rates, and a limited number of options on disposable income allocation (for instance, people couldn't go on holiday abroad).
kelvin5349, we are running quite off-topic here, but thank you for letting me know about the basics of investment. I am yet to read about Warren Buffett using charts, let alone chartists' advice.
Thanks Ben for the article and you tireless research on the glove industry as well as the shareholding movement. One of the few who has great passion for the glove industry
Hi Ben, why top glove and not harta? Share your thoughts. From my understanding, as an investor there are several traits that would put harta as a standout glove company compared to the others. 1. Higher lever of automation resulting in a highest profit margin among the glove company 2. Always ahead of their competitor, you can read up on how they beat their competitor to reclaim the position of lightest nitril glove producer. Bcs the product was always in their warchest. They are also heading in the right direction with regards to R&D with their antimicrobial gloves 3. Building a lasting relationship with their customer by not hiking up the ASP. This will benefit them in the long run. 4. More focused on business then share price. No bonus issue or SBB. I believe they are investing in areas where it would give then competitive edge once ASP reduces.
Thank you Rational_Investor, you raise some very salient points. In addition, I would like to add, Harta has an established track record of rewarding investors with dividends, in stark contrast to Supermax (which failed to pay a cash dividend last year).
Can someone clarify.. based on Supermx-C92, assuming exercise price is RM5. Hence the cash upon maturity is (5-4.82)/3.4 = RM0.61 only. If investor bought the call warrant above RM1, by right investor is still losing $ and IB making money right? THanks
Yes, it is highly likely that investors holding the CWs until maturity have lost money, but so has the IB. The only person who would have earned is the one who would have bought early, and then sold.
Another thing is any long term investor will tell you is there is a time to take profits.
Even Warren Buffet sells positions. Long suffering Supermax investors that bought shares 2003-2008 between 9 sen and 25 sen (post split) will be selling shares slowly to pay for kids college, buy a new car, and travel to NYC once Covid is over. Even at today's share price they are sitting on huge profits.
There isn't some IB structured warrant conspiracy. After the 2009 H1N1 pandemic we saw a 66% pull-back in price. A conservative estimate such as this pegs the price @RM3.67.
Back in 2010, it took 14 months for the wash-out to occur. It's happening much faster this time, which is not bullish for this stock.
i believe its a concerted effort n gang up to press down the gloves stocks.
for whatever reasons we will never truly know.
however its too much of a coincidence lots of cw are expiring in these period. but i also think outside forces are doing it too... its smacks like a major gang up to short the prices down.
i suspect something big is coming. but this is just me speculating.
funny thing is 1. big 4 bosses didnt do anything. no news, just tg buyback in small amounts. maybe they already know this? 2. supermax boss bought a condo in usa 3. big shorter jp morgan is a USA company.
the big 4 now in the eyes of the world are dying nonstop...this is too weird.
btw vol is also very high. collecting?
my 2 cents speculation. i tell u something is brewing
I still think the glove frenzy is not over yet because i saw a lot of people still buying. That's the reason i not going to buy now because like epf is buying topglove again.
I will rather wait after covid ended giving after 2 or 3 years. When no news or people talking about gloves that time. They always say in stock market u figure the last person who are selling then you win.
CuriousGuy, Stockisnotfun, thank you for your comments.
CuriousGuy, factors for the fall in glove stock certainly go beyond CWs. However, I had been asked by people recently why there was such a sudden massive sell-off over the last couple of weeks, and CWs + local IBs selling is the only significant correlation (foreign IBs are buying, as seen from the graph). In terms of news, TG has resumed SBB, and company's CEO has restarted buying shares + Harta's CEO has restarted buying shares, there have been open market purchases by BoD members of Kossan. EPF has been buying shares of all 3 companies. It has certainly been disappointing that less action has been observed with Supermax, and that's another likely reason for the weakness in share price. Guidance on expected revenue and profits has been provided with the quarterly results by all the glove manufacturers, including most recently by Riverstone, Rubberex, and Care Plus.
Stockisnotfun, this might prove to be a good strategy, especially if you dislike volatility.
Ben, TG coming listing of 1,495m shares in HK is expected to bring in 7.77 b rgt. That works out to 5.20rgt a share. Today price is around this price! What’s your opinion as regard to the fall of TG share these few months. This hk listing has wiped off more than the 7.77b that TG is expected to raise.
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Mtrade
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Posted by Mtrade > 2021-02-25 11:19 | Report Abuse
very obvious local institution selling just to protect themselves in CW, make sense