Posted by CharlesT > 2021-03-25 06:03 | Report Abuse
Export segment: both CGS-CIMB and Affin Hwang report that MSM has locked in 65% of its targeted export sales volume in the first half of 2021 (1H21) at a favorable price premium of USD140-145 per tonne.
Fm 2019's Annual Report (Page 8):
• 1,073,888 tonnes annual production output
• Wholesale sales volume of 448,347 tonnes
• Industry sales volume of 415,602 tonnes
• Export sales volume of 83,341 tonnes
Their export sales volume is less than 10% of their total production. The effect may not be so big
Posted by CharlesT > 2021-03-25 06:04 | Report Abuse
I dont think the good result in last Q can sustain for long
Posted by MattHann > 2021-03-25 10:30 | Report Abuse
@CharlesT, you have nailed one of the most important catalyst for MSM: Export. Contrary to what you have alluded, Export segment is likely the growth driver for MSM for FY21. 2019 numbers is a poor reference for FY21 volume precisely because this year they have penetrated new markets with new products.
Importantly, you highlighted 65% locked in volume. This is 220,000 tonnes already secured for FY21, a 150% increase from 2019. And we are only in first quarter of 2021. Hope that helps!
Posted by CharlesT > 2021-03-25 12:07 | Report Abuse
65% of its targeted export sales volume..
What is their targeted export sales?
Where did u get the figure of 220,000 metric tonnes oredi secured for 2021??
Posted by CharlesT > 2021-03-25 12:08 | Report Abuse
Anyway, do u think the management can always make the right bet on the hedging of their raw materials as per this year?
Posted by CharlesT > 2021-03-25 12:19 | Report Abuse
Summary of Facts for 1Q21:
Increased selling price for Industry and Export
Lower raw material cost from hedging positions for domestic
Lower refining cost from 35% reduction in gas price
Increased Selling Price - Low Raw Material Cost - Lower Refining Cost = Higher EBITDA
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, all 3 facts above points toward a strong 1Q21, which may surpass 4Q20 results and trigger a share price rally. In Part 2, I will share on the numbers deep dive and projections.
Yes, but the prices oredi increased fm RM0.60 to Rm1.70 now, almost 200%...
Can the above 3 positive factors be sustainable? For one more Q or two Q?
Posted by MattHann > 2021-03-25 14:41 | Report Abuse
@CharlesT For targeted export sales, you can refer to Affin Hwang's report. All figures I quote are publicly available info.
Whether or not the 3 factors can be sustainable, we shall wait for the 1Q report to make further judgement. For now, it is sufficient to say 1Q/2Q results will have a high chance of good results.
No result.
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Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-03-25 01:04 | Report Abuse
Fgv owns 40% of Msm
Since Msm share price jumped from low of 55 sen to over Rm1.70 the one the benefitted the most is Fgv
There should be a remeasurement gain of over Rm300 millions for Fgv in the price surge of MSM
Since Fgv is still not rerated up it offers a better proxy bargain to Msm