Investing Theory 6 - Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of HARTALEGA
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Publish date: Thu, 12 Aug 2021, 11:30 AM
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Hi everyone,
My name is Philip. It has been quite a while since I posted, but I have been having a lot of fun on my VIP18K member only group which has made millions upon untold millions for my group members.
Actually... not. It appears that bursa is on a huge downtrend, with good stocks not moving, bad stock dropping like a rock, and speculative low float penny stocks jumping all over the place.
You have companies that barely make 10 million a year having a valuation of 800 million. You have UMA companies that repair plane parts that are barely flying suddenly doubling in value. You have companies which are making 2 billion in earnings every quarter dropping to precovid prices.What is the world coming to?
FEAR and GREED, the pendulum is always swinging. Right now for bursa it is FEAR, and for some companies, the FEAR is great.
The majority of new investors have been joining in the last few years since the onset of work from home and the ability to trade and buy/sell online. Alternative coins trading has reach new levels of leveraging, trading platforms are allowing leveraged coins to buy shares in companies (causing chaos of multiple leveraging). Cinemas which lie empty have valuations that are extreme, AMC valuation is actually HIGHER (double) its valuation precovid, bitcoin reached 1 trillion market cap, and gamestop which lost money (a billion +) for the last 3 years is now worth... 11 billion dollars. 10x its best year market cap.
WHAT IS GOING ON?
For the common investor, those who jumped in in 2019, they have made off like a bandit. I myself, doubled my portfolio (topglove, pchem, kpower and scib), and foreign investment portflio quadrupled (stoneco, novavax, palantir, uniqlo were my big bets for 2020).
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp - as usual i3 has very useful service in tracking portfolio and the buy/sell performance of every stock. I have since found out that you can actually delete and edit positions in the i3 online portfolio, so take my investment results at your own risk.
to put things into perspective, in 2021 things have slowed down. I bought tesla at 575, GE at 11.8, sold novavax (to my dismay) sold topglove (at double++ gains from 2019, which turned into an 6 bagger), had a huge drop of shocker in serba dinamik (down 40% pending EY review). And all signs seem to show that bursa is going to lag for many years yet. So, what do I do?
I BOUGHT HARTALEGA.
Why would I do such a thing you ask? Remember last year I put the cautionary tale of the cruise ship coming to the island and giving jobs and revenue to all the islanders, who became vastly richer than they ever had before. They all started believing that the party will never end, money would be available forever, and the cruises will keep on coming. And so they bought and bought and bought.
UNTIL THE PARTY ENDED, AND GREED TURNED INTO FEAR.
In this case, the fear started when the first buyers and traders who have made their x % started to pull out of the game. The obvious fact was true from the onset. how does a company that makes historically 400 million in earnings per year, and 2 billion in earnings a quarter in its best year yet, get a valuation of 75 billion market cap? this was obviously unsustainable, the key question was just when this will be questioned. And so the questions grew louder and louder as people started selling and selling.
And down and down it went. So from extreme greed it started to become extreme fear. Fear that ASP will drop to uncertainty, fear that china will start mass producing gloves and sell everywhere, fear that the demand will follow that of those face masks and shields. And so the new story comes.
Here you have a company that is valued at 24 billion (undervalued in my opinion now that clarity of earnings is here), where the earnings per quarter will be 2 billion+, the reality is covid has changed the perspectives on health and safety, and how people will be buying and using gloves. Hartalega still has the best staff and worker conditions in the business (compared to topglove and supermax) with few if any discrepancies in worker abuse. their ESG is top notched, and their attitude of taking care of their clients by NOT raising prices (unlike supermax and topglove) have allowed them to build a much stronger working relationship with clients and distributors. For young investors and traders this may seem counter culture, but for old men like me who prefer to look at the really long game: putting CUSTOMER FIRST attitudes will definitely reap benefits in the long run.
The simple fact that hartalega is not on the embargo list already speaks volumes about its core values, which I share. I was a long time investor in topglove, and have sadly turned a blind eye on the living conditions (because I myself have lived in those conditions myself staying in construction sites in rural areas and sleeping in container offices and homes with workers in sarawak), so I did not consider that as worker abuse. It was just a normal case of how manufacturing and construction is run in this part of the world. The fact that hartalega is reaching for international standards in R&D and worker safety and production standard speaks volumes for the long term capability of hartalega.
The rest is as usual, 2 billion in earnings per quarter should last for another 1 or 2 years, bringing earnings to around 15 billion+. at a valuation of 24 billion as per the time I have jumped back in, and looking at the long long LONG term picture, i think hartalega is easily going to be a 10 billion USD company by 2025, and huge dividends paycheck to wait for while waiting. Very low risk company, at a suitably clear return of investment over the longer term of 5 years+. I am happy to be a shareholder of a glove company again, as it is definitely within my scoper of competence.
Lim wee chai has done many silly things like mixing with the wrong crowd and listening to the wrong advise (make topglove more valuable than maybank?), using profits to buy back shares at all time high prices, multiple embargos due to worker abuse (imagine what 1 billion from that share buyback can be done to improve worker health and safety and sanitation and living spaces can do?) Instead throwing that money into the ocean to buy back shares instead of growing the business organically. There was never any doubt that glove companies were overvalued, it was just that the owners themselves couldnt believe that the cruise will move away.
So far however as usual, the rumour of cruise moving away has made everyone panic into thinking that the cruise has crashed. Everyone is selling their shares, sell side articles are furiously writing to move the market into tech and commodities. And right now as of today, everyone is predicting the sky to fall on glove companies. The prediction has already been overrun to make the investment a worthwhile risk effort for me today. So if everybody is selling, then I am definitely buy side.
I'm in.
Hope you learn something new everyday,
Philip
P.S. Dont worry so much, I have been in bursa for 20+ years now, it will be allright. Just invest in the monsters of the industry. Trust me on this-
P.P.S. Never look a gift horse in the mouth. The most important investing lesson is the risk/reward analysis of placing uncertain bets with the highest expected return with the lowest amount of risk taken. My serba investment has always been a high risk/high reward investment (thus the position size), while my pchem has always been the low risk/ok reward end (still good 30% returns to date) The key thing to remember in investing is that there is no extra points for difficulty (unlike olympics), so you really dont have to do anything complicated at all to make the necessary returns. most people seem to think that the less people understand a company, the higher your chance of making money out of it. But remember this: the key requirement here is: UNDERSTANDING. you would be surprised how many people actually dont understand what they buy, or accept the risks taken when they buy something.
P.P.P.S I think incoming news from Serba will be very interesting coming up soon. Hint: I have a extremely huge position on the serba bonds which expire soon. I bought it at a good price, and looks like I will not be selling any of it.
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 49 of 49 comments
Harta is the most efficient glove company in Bursa judging from its highest net margin. While Harta is running at 48000pcs/hour, others are running at 38000. Old Kwan once joked informally that if Harta drops ASP, many glove companies will disappear from the market.
2021-08-12 12:21
Quarter end 30 June 2021. NP margin: 57.96%
Quarter end 31 March 2021. NP margin: 48.92%
Quarter end 31 Dec 2020. NP margin: 47.32%
Quarter end 30 Sept 2020. NP margin: 40.84%
Quarter end 30 June 2020. NP margin: 24.03%
Quarter end 31 March 2020. NP margin: 14.87%
So next few quarters what should be the NP margin before customers make complaint you are a profiteer at my expense?
2021-08-12 13:27
It is for sure gloves gloves margin & profit after tax margin will be falling due to over production & intense competition loh!
But....is it still ....worthwhile based current price leh ??
U see we are looking....at a negative growth stock investment scenario for gloves loh...!
How do u value a negative growth stock which is the opposite of growth stock leh ?
2021-08-12 13:35
at RM6.50. buying at the price of 11th March 2021 when covid is announced as pandemic. the risk and reward. reward is higher than the risk of going down. look at face mask. is face mask going to pre covid level? no right. despite of monstrous capacity flow into the market. let alone glvoe where the barrier of entry is higher than mask.
2021-08-12 14:34
U see gloves is simply a cincai easy produce commodity product mah!
Newcomer like mahsing with no previous gloves experience....within less than 6 mths....already become a major gloves producers in the country with few billion capacity mah!
Like that, how leh ?....that means many competitors on the way mah!
Surely ASP will fall loh.....!
Posted by stockraider > Aug 12, 2021 1:35 PM | Report Abuse X
It is for sure gloves gloves margin & profit after tax margin will be falling due to over production & intense competition loh!
But....is it still ....worthwhile based current price leh ??
U see we are looking....at a negative growth stock investment scenario for gloves loh...!
How do u value a negative growth stock which is the opposite of growth stock leh ?
2021-08-12 15:47
If u plant palmoil u need to wait at least 5 years to fruits mah...but rubber gloves....6 mths already set up can produce rubber gloves already loh!
Posted by stockraider > Aug 12, 2021 3:47 PM | Report Abuse X
U see gloves is simply a cincai easy produce commodity product mah!
Newcomer like mahsing with no previous gloves experience....within less than 6 mths....already become a major gloves producers in the country with few billion capacity mah!
Like that, how leh ?....that means many competitors on the way mah!
Surely ASP will fall loh.....!
2021-08-12 15:50
The legendary guy who bought TOPGLOV & held for 10 years is back, investing in his circle of competence in glove companies.
The same guy who heaped praised on SERBA a few years ago, throwing Choivo Capital's caution to the wind.
Now, he suggests that HARTA's 2 BILLION EARNINGS PER QUARTER should last for another 1 or 2 years! Yet, his intrinsic value is only 10B USD or RM40billion or RM12.34 by 2025?
2021-08-12 21:28
Haha,
Only stockraider feel very lucky that at the last minute someone bought his 1 million q sell Insas-WB for half a cent and thus save him from RM 5,000 losses.
2021-08-13 08:41
I can only say the Board of Insas is too conservative and prudent almost to a fault.
Or maybe they find out better ROI if invest in hartalega rather than running a glove business.
2021-08-13 09:44
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Look at it this way, precovid
FOB 100 gloves was around 2.50
In April May as choivo pointed out to me the highest was 8.50 FOB 100 gloves
Definitely the reason for the crash in July it was selling at 5.30 FOB 100 gloves.
The asp is definitely dropping, but definitely also true is the fact that the volume is increasing.
But guess who is not being embargo to sell in USA ?
Who is not under investigation by NHS? Hartalega. As their reputation increases and not bullying their customers but selling at below the market price for gloves, my estimate are for the FOB to drop to around usd 4.20 per 100 gloves for nitrile.
The asp dropped with increasing production.
As for confidence: a simple question remains, what is the delivery supply times for hartalega gloves to date? Very simple question and very simple answer. How long is the waiting times for delivery?
Proton x70 waiting times now reaching 6 months due to supply constraints.
You can easily check for hartalega how long now is the supply chain wait times. They are still very much in demand.
That is the thesis for my investment. A company with products that is in demand with months to wait for supply selling at a reasonable price to market with the highest quality approved by all medical bodies around the world.
Selling at a fair price.
>>>>>>
wkc5657 What gives you the confidence to say that 2b per quarter can last for at least another 1 year to even 2 years?
Other glove makers also increasing capacities, and overall asp are forecasted to drop over the quarters. You implying that hartalega can maintain their asp for extended time frame?
12/08/2021 12:18 PM
2021-08-13 10:39
Philip ( buy what you understand)
If sslee is selling his warrants to you, what are you trying to sell snake oil? Your claims are full of nonsense.
Go back to your cave, they are missing their trolls there.
>>>>>>
leno Insas-WC 40 sen vs Hartalega RM 7.00
10 baggers in my hand is better than 1 bag in your bush.
U presume too much, u make up all the future revenues and profit.
Gloves is a no barrier business.
Anyone can become gloves producers in a couple of months.
All investors knew these already.
That is why gloves investors are in FEAR.
Betul tak ?
2021-08-13 10:43
Posted by leno > Aug 13, 2021 11:34 AM | Report Abuse
Sorry, cannot find any good news on gloves company.
But it's still not too late, to join Insas-WC 40 sen.
TP RM 3 Ringgit.
================
wouldn't it make more sense to join in Inari battle?
2021-08-13 11:39
It would make more sense in Inari ...no need mother and father just the daughter will do.
2021-08-13 11:41
I already say so many times loh...!!
If people like mahsing with no experience in gloves manufacturing can start gloves manufacturing & become one of the major producers in msia within 6 mths....that will mean entry barrier into gloves business are very low & easy mah!
That means alot of competitions are on the way mah!
That will mean huge competition & glut coming loh!
If u plant palmoil u need to wait at least 5 years to get its fruits but gloves cincai within can start production loh!
Thus it does not look good in this commodity gloves industry mah!
2021-08-13 11:55
This scenario is Gloves became a value investment with negative growth loh & no longer a growth investment mah!
How do u value negative growth investment leh ?
We know how to value growth investment but negative growth investment very tricky mah!
Posted by pjseow > Aug 12, 2021 9:59 PM | Report Abuse
Stockraider, The CEO of Harta ,Margma and other glove makers projected the ASP will drop to US 30 to 35 per 1000 post pandemic for Nitrile gloves. Nobody knows when.will be post pandemic. In 2 to 3 years time, Harta capacity will.reach 63.billions per year . The projected earning will be
63 x 32.5 x 0.8 x 4.25 x 0.25 = 1.740 billions
assuming 4.25 exchange rate , 80 % utilization, average ASP of US 32.5 .
EPS = 1740/3430 = 50.7 sen
Assigning a PE of 20 , its value is rm 10.14
Assigning a PE of 25 , its value is rm 12.68
From now until post.pandemic, enjoy the high dividend yield of about 10 %.
Is it worthwhile with these numbers ?
---------------------------------
stockraider It is for sure gloves gloves margin & profit after tax margin will be falling due to over production & intense competition loh!
But....is it still ....worthwhile based current price leh ??
U see we are looking....at a negative growth stock investment scenario for gloves loh...!
How do u value a negative growth stock which is the opposite of growth stock leh ?
Quarter end 30 June 2021. NP margin: 57.96%
Quarter end 31 March 2021. NP margin: 48.92%
Quarter end 31 Dec 2020. NP margin: 47.32%
Quarter end 30 Sept 2020. NP margin: 40.84%
Quarter end 30 June 2020. NP margin: 24.03%
Quarter end 31 March 2020. NP margin: 14.87%
2021-08-13 12:10
Hahahaha,
I am very happy to take 30-50% profit moreover my WC are free and I was also allocated 10% extra excess application above my entitlement.
2021-08-13 12:17
What for u make small trading profit leh ??
Just follow Leno & think big if u hold WC mah!
Posted by Sslee > Aug 13, 2021 12:17 PM | Report Abuse
Hahahaha,
I am very happy to take 30-50% profit moreover my WC are free and I was also allocated 10% extra excess application above my entitlement.
2021-08-13 12:22
If only qqq3 has keep his Vitrox untill now. It will be multi bagger many time over.
2021-08-13 12:23
Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.
Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit
2021-08-13 12:31
Correctloh...this is the ultimate measurement loh!
Posted by leno > Aug 13, 2021 12:26 PM | Report Abuse
to sslee :
free or not it is arguable.
At the end,
it is how much your WHOLE portfolio worth now,
compare to 1st Jan.
2021-08-13 12:32
Learn lah from qqq mistakes mah!
Posted by Sslee > Aug 13, 2021 12:23 PM | Report Abuse
If only qqq3 has keep his Vitrox untill now. It will be multi bagger many time over.
Posted by Sslee > Aug 13, 2021 12:31 PM | Report Abuse
Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.
Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit
2021-08-13 12:33
Philip ( buy what you understand)
that is a commendable result lee, i myself am down a lot from serba drop, hopefully the EY report incoming will do a bit to recover my costs. you are getting much better with reading and investing and trading, congrats!
>>>>>>>>
Sslee Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.
Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit
13/08/2021 12:31 PM
2021-08-13 12:42
Just cut loss lah!
Do not be stubborn loh!
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Aug 13, 2021 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
that is a commendable result lee, i myself am down a lot from serba drop, hopefully the EY report incoming will do a bit to recover my costs. you are getting much better with reading and investing and trading, congrats!
>>>>>>>>
Sslee Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.
Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit
13/08/2021 12:31 PM
2021-08-13 12:44
Philip ( buy what you understand)
so how much leno porfolio performance? I am sure it is goo... wait I think leno doesn't even have an imaginary portfolio. Talk so much nonsense for what?
2021-08-13 12:57
Dear leno,
To be more accurate:
I start the year with RM 2,000,180.40 portfolio and RM 743,089.27 cash in trading account for a total of RM 2,743,269.67.
As of today after another capital injection of RM 304,000 for subscription of INSAS-PB which come with free INSAS-WC.
My portfolio as of now RM 3,494,613.16 and cash in trading account: RM 131,237.14. Total of RM 3,625,850.30
Excluding the dividend received for the year since the dividend were credited directly into my bank account.
Gain for the year: RM 578,580.63 or % gain of 578,580.63/3,047,269.67 = 18.99%
Note: About 50% is in INSAS.
2021-08-13 14:27
Hartalega was buying back shares at prices as high as RM11 in April, then continued to buy back in May, before stopping at the end of June when the price fell below RM7.50. The amount of money used was not as high as that used by TG last year, but their retained earnings were not as high either anyway.
2021-08-13 14:29
Not only TG has forced labour issue. Harta also has in one way or another but it was not picked up by CPB only. TG being the biggest,kena hit loh. Kossan also has similar issue.
Only Supermax we have not seen any news on reimbursement of recruitment fees.
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/10/hartalega-to-reimburse-rm40mil-in-recruitment-fees-to-migrant-workers
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HARTALEGA-HOLDINGS-BERHAD-6500179/news/U-S-probes-two-Malaysian-glove-makers-over-forced-labour-allegations-report-35059585/
2021-08-13 14:35
Sslee,
Very Good Result
Keep it up
Good Luck
Posted by Sslee > Aug 13, 2021 2:27 PM | Report Abuse
Dear leno,
To be more accurate:
I start the year with RM 2,000,180.40 portfolio and RM 743,089.27 cash in trading account for a total of RM 2,743,269.67.
As of today after another capital injection of RM 304,000 for subscription of INSAS-PB which come with free INSAS-WC.
My portfolio as of now RM 3,494,613.16 and cash in trading account: RM 131,237.14. Total of RM 3,625,850.30
Excluding the dividend received for the year since the dividend were credited directly into my bank account.
Gain for the year: RM 578,580.63 or % gain of 578,580.63/3,047,269.67 = 18.99%
Note: About 50% is in INSAS.
2021-08-13 14:40
2 billion in earnings per quarter should last for another 1 or 2 years, bringing earnings to around 15 billion+. at a valuation of 24 billion...
Possible to achieve RM 2 billion every quarter for next 1 or 2 years? Sounds too good to be true.
Other than the above, everything in the article sounds good.
Having said that, harta is a good value buy
Thank you for the article.
2021-08-13 14:44
Stockraider,
Your stock pick year 2021 result is excellent
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2021/2021-07-30-story-h1568876480-Stock_Pick_Year_2021_30_Jul_Result.jsp
Stock Pick Year 2021 - 30 Jul Result
Name %
1 Stock Pick 2021 - curvinteo 69.90%
2 Stock Pick 2021 - Musangkingfarmer 56.41%
3 Stock Pick 2021 - stockraider 52.07%
4 Stock Pick 2021 - huikong 50.05%
5 Stock Pick 2021 - LA777 33.67%
6 Stock Pick 2021 - rajachulan 28.48%
7 Stock Pick 2021 - Joe Ng 28.47%
8 Stock Pick 2021 - aaronsia 24.80%
9 Stock Pick 2021 - Tom Tee 24.46%
10 Stock Pick 2021 - LuvLuv 23.66%
2021-08-13 15:14
so many trolls enjoying getting attention from Philip's post by talking non-sense and giving self org4sm. pathetic.
2021-08-13 23:15
Fascinating, so few intellectuals on klse.i3investor here are willing to discuss about the intrinsic value of Harta
2021-08-14 21:00
The intrinsic value of Hartalega is Liquid assets – total liabilities + (CF1/ (1+d)^1) + (CF2/(1+d)^2) + ----- +(CFn/(1+d)^n)
Where:
CF = Cash Flow in the Period
d = Discount rate
n = The period number. Year 1 to infinity
2021-08-15 09:49
Glove ASP, margin likely to normalise by 1Q22, but prices will remain above pre-Covid-19 levels — Hartalega CEO
By Justin Lim | theedgemarkets.com | 2021-09-07 14:58:23
KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 7): Hartalega Holdings Bhd sees the downtrend of its glove average selling price (ASP) continuing and expects prices to normalise in the first quarter of calendar year 2022 (1Q22).
In a virtual media briefing today, Hartalega chief executive officer (CEO) Kuan Mun Leong noted that the ASP started to ease in the April to June quarter and is expected to decline by 30% every quarter going forward until 1Q22.
However, Kuan believes the floor price of gloves will not return to pre-pandemic levels, owing to changes in the cost structure.
“We believe our ASP or rather our margin will be normalised by the first quarter of the next calendar year. The ASP will then be higher, meaning it will not be lower than pre-pandemic times, because the cost structure has actually changed for us. We are experiencing additional costs from social compliance and also the material cost seen today is actually higher.
“For example, nitrile gloves' raw material [cost] is still higher than pre-pandemic levels. So, the price should not be anything below US$35 [per thousand gloves]. Otherwise, this doesn't make sense in terms of margins,” he added.
At the time of writing today, Hartalega's share price had fallen four sen or 0.58% to RM6.87, giving it a market capitalisation of RM23.55 billion.
2021-09-07 15:23
Even though Hartalega share price is overly inflated IMO, but their management is really good. Their glove output is also much higher than industry stanards owing to much better design and material usage. However, as in many MNCs, when company gets too big, snakes will start to appear. It is unfortunate that they allowed themselves to be caught up. NGC should have completed years ago and yet they just completed it now. Going forward, I wonder if they still maintain the advantage over the rest that keep narrowing year after year.
2021-09-10 09:57
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wkc5657
What gives you the confidence to say that 2b per quarter can last for at least another 1 year to even 2 years?
Other glove makers also increasing capacities, and overall asp are forecasted to drop over the quarters. You implying that hartalega can maintain their asp for extended time frame?
2021-08-12 12:18