Will India buy more palm oil from Malaysia? Yes. Will China buy more palm oil from Malaysia? Yes. Will biodiesel gain more ground? Yes. Will corn oil, peanut oil, soy oil price sustainable? Yes. Will Ringgit depreciate further against RMB and USD? Yes. Will inflation round the globe manageable around 5% in 2021? No. Very unlikely. Inflation surely will exceed 5% in Malaysia in 2022. Will salary of estate workers, lorry drivers, oil mill workers increase by 5% in 2022? Very definite. Will estate land appreciate in price near term, medium term, and long term? Yes.
iron ore productions can increase anytime of existing mine area.oilpalm tree must wait at least 4years with yeild less.you are right ,oilpalm prices may face correction.us and china trade problem destroy the supplies chain,spurred inflation up a lot.even oilpalm prices will face correction, but it won't go back to the beginning.
When the cpo too high price.... demand will reduce accordingly, follow by market the price adjustment due to more production output.. same for glove price cycle..
“High palm oil prices should start to bite into demand and we believe the outlook for consumption in 2022 deteriorated somehow in recent months. We see global consumption growth slowing down in 2022 to 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with our forecast back in August of a 3.4% growth in consumption in 2022, and with a 3.4% growth expected for this year.
“In particular, we have revised down our India's palm oil consumption forecast,” it said.
Many Analyst including Fitch have been predicting Fcpo to fall back below Rm3,000
Who do we trust?
We can only trust those with long years of experience like Sime Darby plant which stated very clearly that Cpo prices will be above Rm4,200 a ton till 1st quarter of 2022
We already got these figures
July 2021 Aug 2021 Sept 2021
All 3 months Cpo averaged price is Rm4,417 Thplant cost of production is Rm1,465 (Uplant with its own rail even cheaper below Rm1300)
So Thplant profit is Rm4417 Less Rm1465 = A whopping 201% profits
Last Friday Cpo closed above Rm5400 for Nov 21 futures
This shows Oct 2021 Cpo now at new world record high at Rm5000
Feb 2021 will report the once a century result of palm oil Outsized earnings
If can sustain by early 2022 then Results for May 2022 should be fantastic as well
How not to see bull run as no other industries can come close in real , incremental and solid cash flow earnings like niagara falls ?
Of course cpo price is not sustainable like any other commodity example steel, gold, silver n oil once they reach a break recording level, that's expected but over the long run, palm oil price is on the uptrend, mind u. So how accurate is kyy assessment, I am not sure, maybe he had his own reasons which we don't know.
don'tbe silly, when palmoii price went bellow 1000, small holders would let the ffb rot on the trees. production cost at ordinary time is around 2000, now labour shortage , complicate the cost issue.
Since Remisier King Peter Lim invested $10 Millions to become a $1.5 BILLIONAIRES
Robert Kuok became Malaysia Richest Man by Investing in Palm oil
When Palm oil was only Rm1,000 to Rm3,000. Now Palm oil CPO is at world record of over Rm5,400 there should be many more Successful Palm oil Millionaires if not Billionaires
Why People like Fitch, Malaysia's IB Bankers & others don't buy palm oil and also tell others not to buy palm oil
If they don't want then why bother to tell others palm oil no good?
Is it like Those Pharisees (Religious Teachers) of old forbidding people to enter the Kingdom of God while they themselves refuse to go in?
This is bad. To divert people from a very good thing
AMP “But woe (judgment is coming) to you, [self-righteous] scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites, because you shut off the kingdom of heaven in front of people; for you do not enter yourselves, nor do you allow those who are [in the process of] entering to do so. AMPC
CJB “But woe to you hypocritical Torah-teachers and P’rushim! For you are shutting the Kingdom of Heaven in people’s faces, neither entering yourselves nor allowing those who wish to enter to do so. CEV You Pharisees and teachers of the Law of Moses are in for trouble! You’re nothing but show-offs. You lock people out of the kingdom of heaven. You won’t go in yourselves, and you keep others from going in.
DLNT “But woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites, because you are shutting the kingdom of the heavens in-front-of people. For you are not entering, nor are you permitting the ones entering to enter.
EHV “But woe to you, experts in the law and Pharisees, you hypocrites! You shut the kingdom of heaven right in front of people’s faces. You yourselves do not enter, nor do you permit those who are trying to enter to do so.
EXB “·How terrible for [L Woe to] you, ·teachers of the law [scribes] and Pharisees! You are hypocrites! [L Because] You ·close [shut; lock] the door for people to enter the kingdom of heaven. You yourselves don’t enter, and you ·stop [don’t allow] others who are trying to enter. GNV ¶ Woe therefore be unto you, Scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites, because ye shut up the kingdom of heaven before men: for ye yourselves go not in, neither suffer ye them that would enter, to come in. GW “How horrible it will be for you, experts in Moses’ Teachings and Pharisees! You hypocrites! You lock people out of the kingdom of heaven. You don’t enter it yourselves, and you don’t permit others to enter when they try. GNT “How terrible for you, teachers of the Law and Pharisees! You hypocrites! You lock the door to the Kingdom of heaven in people's faces, but you yourselves don't go in, nor do you allow in those who are trying to enter! HCSB “But woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! You lock up the kingdom of heaven from people. For you don’t go
anythings above RM3000 will be good price to plantation companies.and unlike glove,share price of plantation companies did not rise much even CPO rally rise from RM2500 per ton to RM5000.so whats could possibly goes wrong even CPO fall back to RM4000 per tonnes?
1. As I repeatedly explained to Calvin, CPO increased doesn't mean corporate profit increase. Labour shortage, production challenges etc pushes up cost and lower yield.
2. Next problem will be even more expensive fertilizer. Fertilizer is more expensive than feed and will be in shortage soon enough. No fertilizer, no oil palm.
3. Maybe those strong players like HSP and IOI can be considered. Others susah sikit.
Outlook & Prospects Palm oil commodity prices are expected to remain volatile in the next financial year. Many factors affecting the prices are to be closely monitored. The current low world vegetable oil stocks will continue to provide the underlying support to the prices. The recovery in stocks depend on the coming production in the producing countries. Weather conditions are one of the many factors to look out for, especially in the US, in the coming crop progress. The COVID-19 pandemic is still affecting demand in many consuming countries and disrupting the production in producing countries. The inoculation rates that are picking momentum in many countries will help to mitigate some of the challenges. Another factor to watch out for is the heightened Business Performance Review 2021 inflationary risk in global economies. Central banks of many countries are sounding more hawkish and this may lead to the imposition of higher interest rates and the adoption of tighter monetary policies in order to rein in the inflation. Having integrated Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) into our business, we are confident that our ESG investing will lead us to overcome the rising interest cost. Going forward, we opine that palm oil prices will remain strong for some time due to lower inventories in both origin and destination market. The palm oil stocks may take longer to replenish to normal levels due to severe worker shortage in Malaysia, disruption from the pandemic and the forecasted La Nina phenomenon towards the end of 2021.
If I'm ceo of large plantation company, I will keep the workforce and palm oil output at current level rather to put in more fertiliser and workers for 20% more output, while selling price of palm oil drop 50% due to over supply
Brazil's 2021-22 soybean output forecast at record 140.7 million mt: Conab
Global supply of the oilseed in 2022 is likely to be ample as a result; Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of soybeans, accounting for more than a third of the world's soybean production.
Aiyah, just because he hasn't bought ma....... in 2 months time when the cop touches Rm6000 , he will say he bought a lot...... Cunny fellow, last bull on plantation he asked people to sailang on Jtiasa when the price is 2.50rm. Haha.... please listen to him and sell, he will buy.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
abang_misai
2,425 posts
Posted by abang_misai > 2021-10-31 16:03 | Report Abuse
Kns uncle.
Steel workers also back to work lah. Uncle is blind or what? Only see the plantation workers back to work after pandemic. Hehe