Posted by Asengkianjoo > 2023-07-13 16:07 | Report Abuse

Any calculation without the sufficient management guidance is liable to serious variation. Dk calculation was proven incorrect . Your speculation of RI is also proven incorrect . Do not forget narket is full of unexpectation and surprises. You good intention may turn misleading and creates big damages to those who follow your calculation blindly . Cypark price reversal is a good example of what surprises and unexpectation I am talking about . Why I am so positive at the current price if 0.18 ? 1. Power plant has value 2. Evolve mall has value 3. Pacific Tower has value 4. Solar plant has value . Any of these can create good new to iniate a price reversal like cypark . Why is it not possible a Singapore big boy to express his intention to acquire the mall , why it is not possible jaks will restructure its business . These are the surprises no power and logical calculation can cover sufficiently.

Posted by Asengkianjoo > 2023-07-13 16:36 | Report Abuse

If I were you, at the current price of 0.18, I will not present my calculation. Most probably I will be proven wrong for the truth I tell. Be wise not smart

Posted by stockraider > 2023-07-14 10:51 | Report Abuse

Avoid this counter loh!

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-07-14 11:24 | Report Abuse

USD interest rate is peaking and will drop next year.
In recent AGM, mgt guided that retention sum around RM 80m-100m( cannot remember) as i only have small n insignificant holding of Jaks.

Posted by Gotyou > 2023-07-14 13:16 | Report Abuse

valueinvestor888, any retention sum would have been included in the net current assets already.

Posted by Asengkianjoo > 2023-07-15 10:52 | Report Abuse

Jaks cash squeeze is well know fact like duck can swim .but it doesn't mean its net worth is negative. An over emphasis on the well known fact is not necessary and will turn misleading especially at current price , an almost a 80 %below its audited NTA. In my opinion , jaks has a strong recurring income , the loan repayment and business activities can possibly restructured anytime and initiate a price reversal like cypark. So, Your good intention can anytime turn a damage to those who has a weak heart and make a panic non rational trading decision .

Posted by Sslee > 2023-07-15 12:08 | Report Abuse

Jaks received dividend of RM 70,120,000 from JHDP in Q4 ended 31/12/2022 (JHDP start operation end Jan 2021)

30% share of profit: 2021: RM 140.7 million. 2022: RM 156.2 million: Q1 2023: RM 28.3 million

So you just need to wait till Q4 end 31/12/2023 result to know what will be the dividend from JHDP and compare with what the author calculation of RM 23 million.

Till then just hold your judgement whether the author is right or wrong.

Posted by Gotyou > 2023-07-15 21:43 | Report Abuse

The sole purpose of this article is to demonstrate by rough estimation that Jaks maybe facing tight cash flow over the next few year mainly because of the short 10 years tenure of JHDP loan. As a big portion of the distributable cash in JHDP will be utilised for repayment of borrowings thus resulting in much less amount for dividend distribution. Nonetheless, this article does not assume that Jaks will default on its loan repayments. By all means, Jaks can refinance its borrowings or carry out fund raising exercises through private placements/ rights issues to address its cash flow deficiencies.

Posted by Asengkianjoo > 2023-07-16 09:33 | Report Abuse

Yes. Thank you for the clarification. You had made your analysis more reliable now .

Posted by Sslee > 2023-07-16 10:14 | Report Abuse

By all means, Jaks can refinance its borrowings or carry out fund raising exercises through private placements/ rights issues to address its cash flow deficiencies.

Only after 2030 the dividend from JHDP should be able to pay off the borrowing in X years. So no cash dividend for the next xx years.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-07-16 10:25 | Report Abuse

As an investor, how Jaks raised this capital is of interest.

Going to the bank for loans, and able to get a loan will give confidence to the shareholders. Banks do not simply give money without doing due diligence.

On the other hand, raising cash from new share placements, such due diligence maynot be so stringent.

Posted by Just88 > 2023-07-16 17:02 | Report Abuse

Gotyou, you have not considered the 24% corporate tax on foreign source income upon remittance into Malaysia.

Posted by Gotyou > 2023-07-16 21:31 | Report Abuse

Just88, the dividend received from outside malaysia by a malaysian tax resident company is exempted from tax if the headline tax rate of the income origin country is not less than 15%. In this case, HK or Vietnam both have headline tax rate of not less than 15%. The RM70m dividend received from JPP last year did not seem to have attracted any tax.

Posted by Asengkianjoo > 2023-07-18 14:19 | Report Abuse

Well done gotyou . What we want is a fair and unbiased view . A reasonable deduction is not always not always necessary a right deduction . You recent RI deduction is a good example . Dk indepth calculation is another . So a responsible writer never like to guess when the dividend will be paid out because it is itself already a biased view .

Posted by Gotyou > 2023-07-19 17:21 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/gotyou/2023-07-19-story-h-245593807-SORRY_I_MADE_A_BIG_MISTAKE_ON_JAKS_RESOURCES_CASH_FLOW_PROJECTION

Posted by Gotyou > 2023-07-19 17:21 | Report Abuse

Sorry about the mistake

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-07-19 18:57 | Report Abuse

Those who are slightly marginally affected by the "Sorry about the mistake" please reconsider your trip to Penang Bridge.

Posted by Sslee > 2023-07-21 09:01 | Report Abuse

Your JHDP cash flow projection based on Q1 2023
30% profit sharing amounts to RM28m per quarter.
100% profit on full year projection = 28 x 4 x 100/30 = RM373m
Cash inflow = profit + depreciation + interest expense
Cash inflow = 373 + 318 + 265 = RM956m

Is wrong because the interest expense is based on 2022 figure and not the current quarter figure.

Summarised adjusted statements of profit or loss and other comprehensive income
JPP Group
2022 2021
RM RM
Adjusted profit for the financial year, representing total comprehensive
income for the financial year 520,633,162 469,043,075

Included in total comprehensive income are:
Revenue 2,553,073,558 3,011,637,528
Amortisation/Depreciation (317,750,163) (296,585,635)
Interest income 3,493,288 1,736,511
Interest expense (265,209,747) (275,461,575)
Taxation (17,199) (1,530,307)

Cash inflow 2021= 469.04+296.59+275.46=1041.09 million
2022: 520.63+317.75+265.21= 1,103.59 million

Project IRR of 12 % for period of 25 year base on USD 1,870 million
ZERO = - 1,870 + A1/(1+0.12) +A2/(1+0.12)^2+……………till A25/(1+0.12)^25

USD 1,870= 7.8431A thus A= USD 238.425 million

Project payback period of 1870/238.425= 7.8 years

Posted by Gotyou > 2023-07-21 11:15 | Report Abuse

Yes, I m aware that 2022 interest expense was used in the computation. The projection itself was based on rough estimation using the most recent figures made available. Thank you for pointing it out.

Posted by Jack Khan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

IT is true now another PPP