leno next one can choose scomnet,scomnet in the will fly soon,next few months will have many good news for scomnet, I cant say what's the good news first,get it while haven't fly,most importantly scomnet is net cash,company keep expanding tasty company,faster get on boards,the cheaper can get,the happier I am
SCOMNET is in the business of manufacturing and assembling advanced high technology wires and cables for the medicaldevices, electrical appliances, consumer electronics and automotive markets.
The group, which announced net profit of RM23.5m (+21% YoY) in FY December 2020, has seen its bottomline increasingevery year since FY17, translating to a robust 3-year CAGR of 115.3%.
With the earnings growth momentum extending into 1QFY21 – as net profit jumped 19% YoY to RM4.9m – consensus isprojecting SCOMNET to make net earnings of RM30.0m for FY21 and RM48.0m for FY22. This implies forward PERs of40.2x this year and 25.1x next year, respectively.
Financially steady, the group has zero borrowings with a cash surplus of RM51.8m (or 7.2 sen per share) as of end-March2021.
On the chart, following a share price correction from a high of RM2.08 in late April this year, the stock has subsequentlybounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to pave the way for the shares to shift higher ahead.
With the RSI indicator already emerging from an oversold position and the MACD line crossing over the signal line in anoversold area, a technical rebound is anticipated.
Riding on the positive momentum, the stock will probably climb towards our resistance thresholds of RM1.89 (R1; 13% upsidepotential) and RM2.05 (R2; 23% upside potential).
Our stop loss price is set at RM1.48 (representing a 11% downside risk)
The Group kicked off the second half of the financial year positively, contributed by strong order from its medical segments.
The Group was affected by FMCO (MCO 3.0) due to the limiting of workforce to 60% from June to August. There was also a Covid-19 case detected in the factory which resulted in closure of the plants for 7 days in July 2021, which further affected production. With fully vaccination of employees on 26th August 2021, the Group will be applying to authority for approval of 80~100% workforce capacity.
I have transited from BPPLAS to here. I can see a strong organic growth in this Group. I have attended its virtual AGM. Main points : 1) It is confirmed by the Board that the Group will be transferred to Main Board next year. They will recruit a qualified CFO upon transfer to Main Board. (Pls share this info to anyone who interested the post) 2) Its AGM, Mr Lim Eng Chuan keeps emphasize that there will have an organic growth in next coming few years, where they will focus on medical products in future.
I am not going to repeat what has been written in the annual report. Please refer yourself to page 17 and 18 of its annual report. Let me summarise the growth factor below, after getting final update from Mr Lim in the AGM 1) The new 5-storey, costing around RM10mil, should complete by next year, and start operating in Jan 2023. This new building will contribute 70~80% additional capacity. Medical products generate higher profit margin of 40% as compare to its traditional E&E product of 10%. This factor is an encouraging growth factor. I estimate to be more than 200% growth in FY2023. (as compare FY2020) 2) They have completed another smaller building which is expected to contribute 20% to 25% capacity under normal condition (no MCO, lock-down, etc). This itself will contribute additional 30~50% growth in FY2022, given it has higher profit margin in medical product. 3) Other than its 2 main medical products customers, Edwards and Ambu, they have secured a third customer, Mermaid Medical. They have got the FDA approval to produce (OEM) D Clot HD and OWT Type. The mass production is in fact "delay" due to the COVID pandemic. The main 5-storey building is mainly cater for this operation. Mass production should start next year. (This is the main growth factor) 4) According to Mr Lim, once they got the FDA approval to manufacture the medical product. The customers can't simply change suppliers. (I am not sure why.....but he keep emphasize this is the industry practice) . This is definitely another plus point. They have signed the ever-green agreement (not allow to change suppliers ??). Meaning, it is a monopoly business. 5) As for its Fuel Tank, Mr Lim can't give us further update as their customer (Proton / Perduoa) still under lock down, and is expected to resume operation next week only. 6) As for dividend, you know lah....they wion't commit, and just talk (like no talk)
Well, this is the summary from the AGM above. (other than some shareholders asking for cash voucher). Valuation wise, it looks expensive now. But if you factor in the next year growth....it is reasonable. I will discuss more on its valuation part in later part. Hope this will help in your investing. Be safe !
divd they have alrd said still continue as 1.5sen ,but for a growth company still understand la,bcs capex very expensive too,but buy now will enjoy the high growth of this company
Their capex as I known they will only cost their construction fee for the 5storey building. All the machine are pay by their customer so know additional depreciation will be charge in their ar or qr
Smyang 11 yes copper price spike up might make their automotive segment lose money but most of the people just focus on their capex on the medical segment to bring in a high growth.
- 2Q21 revenue +36% yoy, PAT -9% yoy due to lower margin products and factory closure of 7days(Covid). PAT margin
- Revenue breakdown: SMP 69%,STB 26%, SAC 5%
- Restricted workforce capacity due to MCO3.0 resulted in revenue -13% qoq, but PAT +11% on effective cost savings and resolved freight/raw material cost hike in 1Q21.
- SMP and STB only allowed to operate on a 60% workforce from 24 May to 31 Aug, SAC 10%. But able to achieve 80% to 90% of total output despite lower workforce.
- Orders made by Edward Lifesciences and Ambu have been increasing steadily.
- Able to complete second dose of vaccination for all employees by mid-Sept. Miti has also granted Scomnet to run on 100% workforce from 1st Sept as the vaccination rate has already reached over 85%.
- Cost structure: Raw material 71% (1Q:76%), labour 16% (1Q14%), overhead 13% (1Q:10%)
*Key Reviews*
- Net margin: SMP: 25-35%, STB: 8-15%, SAC: 12-18%, currently implementing Lean Manufacturing for effective cost control, and introducing new automation to replace existing manual processes and reducing quality rejects.
- Current production capacity: SMP 95%, STB %, SAC 35% fuel tank & 50% harness. (Assuming 100% workforce)
- Cost issues resolved in 2Q21. For copper prices, customers agreed to charge based on monthly LME quote instead of quarterly. For freight cost, customers agreed to pay for extra container allocation cost.
- For freight cost, talked to Edwards as one to two container/week send to Dominican. Initial quotation is USD2800/container until last month USD13k. Edwards took up all. If the parts are sent by air shipment, all paid by customer as well.
- For copper, ApTIV use a lot copper, and margin for aptiv quite low. For aptiv start with monthly adjustments, cost transferred to clients.
- About 20-25% production is currently under automation process. In the midst of shifting towards higher automation.
*Expansion Plan*
- Current capacity at 32392 sqm, housed in 4 factories with total BU of 17308 sqm, STB 40%, SAC 15% and 45% respectively.
- 5-storey Building: RM10m capex, completion 3 years from commencement date. 2nd floor Expansion: Completed in Feb, added 360 spm. Further expansion on 2nd floor: Completing Jan 2022, +15-20% production capacity.
*Business Outlook*
- SMP affected due to halted orders of Mermaid, expect to commence their new product orders again in September. D*Clot HD, is now cleared by FDA and pending CE approval for the European markets. Expect a five figures' orders per annum for this D Clot HD. D Clot OTW pending both CE and FDA approval (better sales than HD, starting late 2022).
- Plass expected to obtain FDA approval in Q4, thus the orders will show in 4Q21 or 1Q22 onwards. Once they get it, 1st customer for Plass are the US special forces. Even if FDA approval not cleared, they’ll purchase 5-figures unit, regardless.
- If Plass cleared FDA, Defence Department of US will purchase millions units as it is the new standard of care in military medicine. Plass’ 2nd customer will be US Navy Marines. Every purchase of 3k Plass bullets, will require 1 Plass device. Group’s tooling setup is 40k units per month.
- Plass also approached by European Automotives to have 1 Plass device inside every car’s first-aid box. Didn’t get actual forecast, Plass keeps as secret and will only reveal once they obtained the FDA approval.
- STB remain unchanged.
- SAC will move after success of Fuel Tank and Wire Harness 1st localization mass production. Peugeot signed and delivered fuel tank. Expect to start the mass production of Fuel Tank in Dec 2021 and Wire Harness in Jul 2022. Nevertheless, LVA project(import from China) will continue until mass production success. LVA Project: Currently import from Wuhan (Peugeot approved vendor), and SAC assembles whatever Wuhan can produce.
- For SAC, can’t see the contribution in 2Q21 because of MCO, only customer for SAC is PSA. There is big potential for SAC to easily overtake STB revenue, because SAC ASP for wire harness is almost RM4k per vehicle, fuel tank is RM1-2k per vehicle.
- As per agreement, there is total 5 models with SAC. Currently initial stage on localization Stage 1 for Peugeot 3008 and 5008 fuel tanks and wire harness. Coming in addition will be 308 model right after this localization stage 1 complete and 1 more model which is due to Pakistan exports assembled in Naza.
- Expecting to see another double digit growth for FY2021.
- Catalyst 1: Production for new products such as Rotational Thrombectomy Device, Fuel Tank localization, oximetry sensors, wound occluder and Insertion Tube.
- Catalyst 2: Increased orders from existing customers, orderbook received mid-2022. More demand from clients not just for cardiovascular, stroke and respiratory devices, but also tactical military medical devices ad Tubing delivery system.
- Catalyst 3: Main board transfer by Oct this year and complete within 12 months
*Q&A:* 1. Discussed with APTIV, at this moment continue to supply for both proton and perodua until feb/march next year. From there onwards, will switch 45% of their PO (proton) to Tawin, only doing Perodua. For PSA, wire harnessing localisation starting July 2022 due to technical assistant in China not allowed to come Malaysia(Covid & MCO). For PSA, role wire sold to SAC is about 15% compared to APTIV 5-8% margin.
2. For Mermaid’s D Clot, initial projection 4000/month, then 10k/month followed by 40k/month. Production capacity of 10k/month in clean room is ready, but due to pandemic Mermaid unable to introduce its product. 2Q21 only 1000 pieces instead of 4k/month.
- Proceeded to obtain CE certification for D Clot HD as Europe demand higher than US. (CE mark know more detail in 7th Oct). FDA cert received earlier but CE cert was screwed previously, and they changed the new PIC and regulatory PIC for CE. Confident to receive in Oct.
3. For Ambu, Falcon CI and GI to Jan 2022, as they are facing issued with Falcon D (produced in German, faced technical issue in producing, thus have to improved all CI,GI, DI together, change the tooling). The testing quantity is still there, but commercial launching delayed to Jan 22.Ambu already become largest customer mainly due to insertion tube.
4. For Edwards, there’s a new product Oximetry sensor, took almost 2 years for design input. Official PO received, submitted to FDA and completed validations. The whole project about 5 years for 100k units. Every unit about USD125.
5. Orderbook: For SMP, on hand PO about 30% more than 2020 for until end of 2021. For SAC, PSA resumed back, will start to deliver fuel tank and harness, will have something there. STB remain unchanged.
6. Ambu became biggest revenue contributor to SMP, mainly due to endoscope’s insertion tube where demand increased. Besides in Penang, Ambu has second plant that produce complete endoscope in Mexico(new factory), and have to purchase their part from SMP as tied to FDA. Secondly, Although Falcon’s insertion tube extended launching to Jan 2022, SMP started delivering some to Ambu. The PO received until end of this year.
7. For Ambu endoscope increased, ASP +5% price on end-March to cover copper price surge. Edwards DPT price also increased(Sept/3Q21 onwards). Volume for Ambu endoscope 10k/day until March next year, then 13-14k/day start from April next year. - In 1Q21, say ambu contribute 35% of revenue, about 10% of it is from endoscope. Even though without covid, this product continues to run and Ambu mentioned that this volume will be remained although no covid as it is used in other parts of body.
8. SMP revenue breakdown: Ambu about 56%, Edwards 42%, others: 2%. Plass will wait for FDA approval in 4Q21, and mermaid waiting commercial production in 2022.
9. Much stronger 2H coming forward, Ambu and Edwards much stronger. A few new products that are going to be introduced in 3Q, obtained another new FDA and CE, high demand. Secured another new client for SMP from US, sample stage completed, nearly have this in pipeline(Oct?). 2nd new product submitted to CE and FDA(new technology). 3rd new product: heat cutting knife?
10. New Customer: US customer moving out from HK due to China affiliated. Forecast will only announce in 3Q. Tooling and machinery are consigned, most technology are already being used by Scomnet. Parts require high precisions, tried other companies but only Scomnet achieved it. Scomnet will do full assembly with label.
If we refer to UOB research dated 6/9, its TP is RM2.15. This is based on 32x PE of next year PE. However, if you can hold a little longer, say 2 more years, and based on Healthcare Index's 5-year mean of 44x, you could expect RM4.40 (Based on FY2023 EPS of 10sen with PE of 44x). Although this company is a small little company, if you look at its Top30 shareholdings, other than the directors' holdings, other top 30 shareholders are all institutional funds (mainly Public, Affin, Kenanga). Top30 accounted 74% of the total issued shares. UOB is rather conservative as it did not take in the additional 100% capacity expansion on its 5-floor buiding which to be completed in 3 years. Again, if you can even longer, I can expect its TP to hit RM8.80 ! Why, because this company product is almost "monopoly" and only can produce by them (with FDA approval). And the single-use endoscope will be the "future trend" due to the COVID risk. Hospital will be replace this single-use from re-useable endoscope. The company profile will be highlighted again once it transfer to Main Board in the 2nd half of the year later....So, BUY while still cheap
Don't just buy a company because of the institutional holdings. This is bad habit for investing lmao. High institutional ownership like Top Glove last year is a harbinger of bad things to come. When institutions own the majority of the float, there is not much upside. This company, however, has this unique moat.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
MrWinMoney
60 posts
Posted by MrWinMoney > 2021-08-14 09:06 | Report Abuse
this counter pening la, green 1 day, red 2 days....good fundamental company...but idk why doesnt shows via the share price.