We maintain BUY call on Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG) with unchanged fair value of RM20.60/share based on SOP valuation. We fine-tune our FY21/22 earnings by +0.5/-0.8% after tweaking our net interest and non-interest income (NOII) estimates.
HLFG reported a flattish net profit of RM573mil (-0.7% QoQ) in 4Q21. Higher net interest income (NII) was offset by a slowdown in non-interest income (NOII) coupled with higher provisions due additional pre-emptive provisions of RM157mil set aside by its key subsidiary, Hong Leong Bank (HLBB) in the quarter.
For 12M21, core earnings grew by 13.3% YoY to RM2.27bil with higher profit contribution from all divisions (commercial and share of results from Bank of Chengdu – associate company, investment banking and insurance).
Cumulative earnings were within our expectation, accounting for 104.6% of forecast. However, the results were slightly above consensus number making up 105.6% of street estimates.
Its key subsidiary, HLBB, reported a strong PBT of RM3.5bil (+16.1% YoY) for 12M21 contributed by higher total income and lower opex partially offset by increase in provisions due to pre-emptive allowances on loan losses of RM511mil booked in for the financial year.
HLBB’s loans grew strongly at 6.8% YoY with domestic loan growth outpacing the industry’s 3.4% YoY growth.
HLBB’s CI ratio for 12M21 improved to 38.0% with a positive JAW of 15.6% YoY.
The banking subsidiary’s asset quality remained sound with GIL ratio of 0.46% while loan loss cover including regulatory reserves was high at 304.0% significantly above the industry’s 112.0%. Credit cost of HLBB stood at 0.42% in 12M21.
HLA Holdings (HLAH) recorded a higher net profit after tax of RM394mil (+73.3% YoY) for 12M21.
The improved performance of the group’s insurance business was underpinned by higher insurance underwriting surplus (+RM38mil), fair value gains from equities (+RM78mil) and the release of contractual liabilities from higher interest rate partially offset by FV losses on bonds (+RM28mil)
For 12M21, HLA the key insurance subsidiary’s gross premiums and new business regular premiums (NBRP) expanded by 11.1%YoY and 29.7% YoY respectively.
HLA’s embedded value rose by 14.0% YoY to RM2.87bil in 12M21 focusing on growth of higher margin products (investment-linked). New business embedded value (NBEV) of HLA climbed 20.0% YoY to RM177mil in 12M21 from changes in product mix, new product launches and favourable impact from the steepening of long-term MGS rates. Non-par and investment-linked/ participating ratio for new businesses stood at 96:4. HLA maintained its ranking at No. 4 for investment-linked products while its market share in terms of NBRP for ordinary life products improved to the 7th position in FY21 from 9th in FY20.
HLA’s number of agents rose to 8,095. By delivery channel, gross premiums continued to be driven largely by agents followed by bancassurance. In FY21, agency and bancassurance’s NBRP grew by 27.0% YoY and 39.0% YoY respectively.
Its investment banking division under Hong Leong Capital (HLC) reported a higher PBT of RM177mil (+85.2% YoY) for 12M21 driven by higher contributions from investment banking and stockbroking business. Higher retail participation in the stock market benefitted its stockbroking business. Meanwhile, improved deals flows for equity and debt capital markets, coupled with higher treasury income lifted earnings contribution from investment banking. In contrast, its asset management business’s PBT declined YoY with lower average AUM of RM16.9mil as money market funds withdrew to invest in other higher yielding investments.
HLFG’s consolidated CET1 ratio, Tier 1 and total capital was 11.64%, 12.58% and 15.47% in 4Q21 respectively. The ratios stayed above the regulatory requirements of 7.0%, 8.5% and 10.5% respectively.
A final dividend of 29.2 sen/share has been proposed bringing the total FY21 dividends to 40 sen/share (payout: 20.0%). This was close to our estimate of 43.5 sen/share.
The issue of FBM index lies within the fact that the index consistently ostracizes the winners and embrace the losers. Hong Leong Financial Group is the few movers of the index with the least analyst upgrades/coverage and highest SD for earnings estimates. This is really boring
After 3 years pandemic already end, next year onwards surely is the years of recovery and economy start booming time ! Like previously economy downturn period of: 1)Crisis 1986-1990 start booming 1993 to 1997 2)Crisis 1997-2000 start booming 2003 to 2006 3)Crisis 2006-2010 start booming 2013 to 2016 4)Crisis 2016-2022 start booming 2023 to 2027
So, our economy and KLSE will be spike up like mad start from year 2023 which is next year and i predict our KLSE this round of bull run start 2023 will hit it’s record high of around 2,000 points !
KUALA LUMPUR: At the conclusion of its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, Bank Negara increased the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%, in line with market expectations. In a statement, it said it raised the ceiling and floor rate of the corridor of the OPR to 2.75% and 2.25% respectively.
This is the central bank's third consecutive rate hike, bringing the total increase in the OPR to 75bps so far this year. "At the current OPR level, the stance of monetary policy continues to remain accommodative and supportive of economic growth.
"The MPC is not on any pre-set course and will continue to assess evolving conditions and their implications on the overall outlook to domestic inflation and growth," said Bank Negara…..
HLFG own 1340m HLBANK shares HLFG total out-standing shares = 1134m Therefore, for every single share of HLFG that we own, it indirectly own 1.1817 share HLBANK.
For the last 4 quarters: HLBANK EPS=RM1.8873 HLFG EPS = RM2.514
HLFG EPS = 1.1817 * HLBANK EPS + other business EPS, other business EPS = 2.514 -1.1817 * 1.8873 = 0.2838,
(2.514 - 0.2838) / 2.514 = 88.7%, Meaning 88.7% of HLFG profit is from HLBANK.
Now, look at their Net Asset per share at 30th Sep 2023, HLBANK Net Asset per share = RM16.68, HLFG Net Asset per share = RM24.25,
Same way of calculation, HLFG other business Net Asset per share = 24.25 - 1.1817 * 16.68 = RM4.54 Meaning the ROE for HLFG other business = 0.2838 / 4.54 = 6.25%, Not Bad.
Now the question is why HLFG is trading at so much cheaper compare to HLBANK? Because there is a Conglomerate Discount or in Malaysia we call it holding company discount. But logically it should not be applicable to HLBANK / HLFG because 88.7% of HLFG profit come from HLBANK.
My opinion, Logically, holding company discount should only be applicable to those companies that owning non-controlling stake, which have no say in business operation, example INSAS holding INARI, ICAP holding a basket of companies.
But HLFG have full control of HLBANK and HLCAP, so to me, holding company discount is not applicable.
Does anyone have any idea about the carrying book value of hlfg's bank of chengdu 19.8% investment vs the current valuation of BOC in chinese stock exchange? EPS and NBV of BOC as well?
HLFG vs HLBANK (last fin yr info) Price 16.28 vs 18.96 (closing on 9th Feb) EPS(cts) 246.1 vs 186.37 NTA 23.62 vs 16.59 PE 4.51 vs 10.96 S-Issued 1.147B vs 2.167B
Today, I finally took a position in both HLB and HLFG. Compared to other local banks, in which I've had position since Covid, HLB seems to be the cheapest. Over the last few years, the profitability of HLFG has increased; and, yet, the price seems not to have kept pace. I wonder why. True, it is not that strong, financially, but so are other banks in Malaysia.
> what you meant by "True, it is not that strong, financially, but so are other banks in Malaysia."?
Over the last ten years, the Revenue per Share of HLFG has grown from RM 4.24 to RM 5.47. During the same period, the Tangible Book per Share has almost tripled from RM 8.16 to RM 22.67. Which raises questions (to me, at least) about the quality of the assets that are being accumulated.
Now, I also look at the Cash & Equivalents over the same 10-year period and compare it with Total Liabilities. Between the periods 2014-2020, the group's cash position was between RM16.3 bil and RM24.8 bil. Total Liabilities on the other hand has tended to be below RM200 bil. However, if we look at the current values, the Cash position has dwindled to RM 11.1 bil whereas the Liabilities has ballooned to RM 278 bil.
good analysis @i3gambler and @Thirai Thiraviam ..... im planning to enter HLFG mainly due to its low PER, based on current qtr eps of 72.1c, this works out to T4 PER of 6.06x.... which is so low!!! Or shd I just get into Ambank and RHB? Objective..... recession prove investment into financial services
raymondroy: > im planning to enter HLFG mainly due to its low PER, based on current qtr eps of 72.1c, this works out to T4 PER of 6.06x.... which is so low!!! Or shd I just get into Ambank and RHB
I increased my position in HLFG again today. It seems terribly undervalued. As per my estimates, it should be trading at around RM27. So, I really don't understand why it is selling at such a deep discount. I don't mind holding on to HLFG for the long-term, but with a dividend yield south of 3% (owing to a very low dividend payout ratio), I recognise it'll be pain. As to your question, both RHB and Ambank appear to be undervalued, as well. But RHB pays good dividend (payout ratio > 0.6). I have been holding on to RHB for four years now. No regrets.
Also, look at this forum. HLFG is one of the largest PLCs in Malaysia, and is part of the FBM KLCI, and yet, so few people post here.
I avoid HLFG and prefer HLBANK but my holdings in HLBANK is significantly smaller due to the Quek factor. He owns too much. Additionally, none of his children are likely to succeed him. Shares that are willed to children who don't take over from such a dominant person are likely to be sold, and the market simply cannot absorb ...
So, the combination of very high % holding, stinginess to share profits with shareholders, the longer it goes, the worse it'll get.
This is more likely to turn out to be a value trap i.e. if the payout is barely matching FD, I can't be interested to buy.
Malaysia is not the same as the US. There are too many situations where PE and PB is so cheap, but due to tight control, there's just no way for market/activists to take a seat in the Board to force unlocking and without a mechanism to unlock, and Quek decides on the % of profits to share with shareholders whilst he is still alive, it'll be a long long wait.
As usual, just my view, you are responsible for your own trading and investing decision.
thx @DividendGuy67 ...... did not know these info.... quek kids are not following his footsteps as in none will take over from him? Why dont other parties slowly take up the shares in open market..... can possibly reach a point for MTO :-) sad to see the state of affairs in the quek family like this..... will need a white knight
I don't think QLC cares about HLFG valuations. Put yourself in his shoes. He's in his 80s. Why should he divest his shares when he's alive, if this risks someone else kicking him out? "Over my dead body!" - QLC cries out! ;-)
Put yourself in the acquirer shoes - why should they pay a premium to buy QLC out, when MV is so low? First, QLC won't allow it - same "over my dead body" argument.
I'm sure there's better ways (e.g. cousins in Singapore, bypassing children?). I'm sure there's a solution somewhere if several parties are willing, but problem is willingness is not certain when multiple parties are involved. So, this looks like a 7 foot hurdle to me than a 1 foot hurdle. I'll let someone brighter and smarter figure this one out. So, I personally pass HLFG.
Imagine trying to go against the guy who owns 78% of the shares. What can anybody do? Let say someone plans to do a hostile takeover - he starts buying up the remaining 22% shares. In the process, he bids the price up. QLC can just ignore him. Let say there's only 2 parties left - Bursa will come in and say you have to delist because you don't comply with listing requirements. It gets delisted, QLC don't care, you are stuck with unlisted stock owning 22%. And QLC controls the dividends - he can simply cut down the dividends and your 22% now is not worth anything and doesn't even receive dividends. This guy controls everything. Nobody dares to try anything against him.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Keyman188
5,968 posts
Posted by Keyman188 > 2021-08-30 10:05 | Report Abuse
Great news...foreign funds coming back...