Once the rights floats in the main market, I think it will trend downwards to +5% to +10% of the rights issue price due to the profit taking by those bought at $0.59, and I do not think there will be a V shape recovery thereafter due to poor market sentiments, will have to stay long for this one...but it is a good price to enter for long though.
fellow investors, i dun think prices will drop much coz the MBSB-OR price when added to it does not make much profit. will be strategic now to collect and keep for - real money.
Yes, cost of the right is around 70sen not 59 sen after added up with OR.. why so many newbie here simply comment and said will drop to 59 sen.. nonsense la..pls study before invest in klsr ok?
based on total valid acceptances 96.63% and total valid excess applications 12.50%, excess application on pro-rated basis can get 27% of their excess application.
My guess could be wrong, if let's say out of 12.5% excess, 5-10% are from the existing shareholders (who owned MBSB mother shares on Ex Date), most (if not all) of the 3.37% under-subscribed portion will go to this group first before goes to those non mother shareholder who purchased OR from the market
My friend work in investment bank (underwriter of MBSB) alrdy checking for me, and can sell ahead after confirmation. I think i should able to get at least 20% of my excess application
Posted by Woo John > Jul 26, 2016 09:43 AM | Report Abuse
Hmm.... hitting 0.72 now, about the cost price.
I think price may come below yr cost...0.60+ in short term...they will annouce their next Q result on 08 Aug. However, it's rather unlikely for it to go below RM0.59
Can sell ahead? U mean before this Fri? So good ah? If u really can do it (i doubt lah) then I believe major shareholder also can do so...that means there will be more selling pressure these few days
MBSB next quarter result to be release 8 Ag will give 'GOOD' but 'MISLEADING' earning.....MBSB will record profit without take into account dilution share volume, but share price in the open market alrdy diluted.....
therefore will give 'fake impression' to market that MBSB EPS is alike double surge in EPS as market alrdy price in MBSB base on 1 for 1 right share dilution but upcoming EPS still record result based on last 3 month undiluted share base volume
In short, these fake impression of MBSB earning may mislead market or thought MBSB EPS is good compared to current market share price.....it may prompt market to react POSITIVELY...then, perhaps it only ripe time to take profit for right share subscriber.
hahahaha, you never know the market sentiment at time of release result 8-8-16....the time is too close between right share listing vs quarter result (to be based on undiluted share volume)
At current market price is just 72sen vs previous selling price 78sen....different of 6sen.....i think will wait for its Q result to release to capitalize 'potential catalyst' from 'misleading EPS'
Based on previous right OR commence trading....MBSB slump down to low 71sen....then range bound between 71-73sen for a week.....then final day of OR ease trading and then after, MBSB share rebound back to as high as 79sen.....
Therefore, it fair expectation now, upcoming right share listing may also cause MBSB share to weak to low 70sen, then upcoming Q result, about a week ahead later may offer ease pressure due to 'misleading EPS' which to be based on undiluted share volume, may offer catalyst for MBSB to rebound back to 78sen again :)
Based on total valid acceptances 96.63% and total valid excess applications 12.50%, excess application on pro-rated basis can get 27% of their excess application. Lets clarify what is meaning of prorated based on 27%.
based on my understanding accord to information from investment bank,
If you are shareholder of MBSB at the time before ex-date of right, then these group of shareholder have top priority to get excess application but still limit to pro-rated quota.
1. e.g. If shareholder own 10,000 lot of MBSB before it ex-right, therefore own 10,000 of OR, shareholder opt to fully subscribe his entitlement 10,000 and at the same time opt to apply excess 5,000 lot.
Then, based on prorated, shareholder will get FULL 27% (due to top priority) but, allocation is based on its OR volume instead of based on its excess lot.....in short shareholder will get 2.700 lot excess...and void for its remaining 3,300 lot.....The success rate is 54%
2. Another scenario is If shareholder own 10,000 lot of MBSB before it ex-right, therefore own 10,000 of OR, but opt to selloff most of its OR to open market to cash out....and retain only 2,000 lot to fully subscribe his entitlement 2,000 but, at the same time opt to apply excess 5,000 lot.
Then, based on prorated, shareholder will get FULL 27% (due to top priority) but, allocation is based on its OR volume instead of based on its excess lot.....in short shareholder will get 0.540 lot excess...and void for its remaining 4,460 lot.....The success rate is 10.8%
3. scenario for OR holder will be based on lower pro-rated % (<27%) as priority already given to those shareholder opt for excess and these % allocation is based on remain excess lot after meet priority group allocation.
In short, original OR volume to subscribe right share is key determinant for excess lot allocation, whereas, original shareholder is key determinant for priority allocation. Nonetheless, as actual parameter could be very variable, the end result could be differ depend on investment bank final allocation
You may consider to buy once MBSB right share official list on these Friday. As the share volume is enlarge by 100%, supply vs demand, share price may on weakness. Then, you can wait for for its upcoming result to be release on 8-8-16. The EPS is based on previous undiluted share volume...therefore, the EPS may 'mislead' overlook as VERY GOOD if based on current market share price which alrdy in diluted enlarge volume base....thus, may offer arbitrary opptunity to reap profit.
hng33, with regards to excess share allotment in MBSB, please refer to the propectus under section 10.5. It is different from what you claimed. Base on the number of MBSB share you have before ex-date
I still awaiting reply from investment about my excess application status.....my ratio on application is (55 right: 10 excess). i think need to wait till tomorrow for them to get back to me.
You better go back and re-read again the prospectus under section 10.5 (page 28), it ONLY highlight the priority of to get excess lot, which alrdy state clearly ALL based on pro-rated basis, with priority given to shareholder to before ex-right and least priority given to OR (renounce) holder, and allocation also base on pro-rated basis.
The mechanism on how pro-rate basis work only can get from investment bank that underwrite these fund raising. Each underwriter investment bank already allocated certain amount of volume aside from those alrdy undertaking by major shareholder. These investment bank then will allocate excess lot in the event of unsubscribe portion and the allocation of excess is base on what i highlight in the earlier post. Clear mind
Remark: MBSB major shareholder all given their undertsaking based on their respective shareholding EPF and PNB (Yayasan Perlaburan bumuputera), BUT, both are not given undertaking to take EXCESS lot.....imply major shareholder are not apply any excess lot apart from their original entitlement, that why, MBSB appoint appoint 5 investment bank to absorb or undertake any potential under-subscribe portion in these right fund raising.
Fundamentally the company has improved a lot in order to meet the BNM banking standard, eg the leverage ratio increase from 8% to above 12.5 %... BUT the supply of share is plently due to current right issue... Short term selling pressure...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
murali
5,723 posts
Posted by murali > 2016-07-22 09:22 | Report Abuse
Price comes down everyday, what will be the mother price comes 29 July?