Learning from a plantation estate manager on this CPO 5100 now.
As jtiasa is pure upstream plantation stock and it is selling CPO instead of FFB, so it will be more accurate to look at jtiasa CPO production:
1) 1Q (July - Sept 24) - CPO production is about 70,000, which is more or less the same as 1Q 23, fertilizer is less costly in yr 24, CPO price is slightly higher in yr24. Expecting coming 1Q 24 is slightly better or same at 65 to 70mil.
1) 2Q ( Oct - Dec 24) - assuming CPO average 4500, all other things remain, it is expecting Jtisa CPO production will be around 70k as well, as we know that all the fertilizer and other cost are fixed and sunk cost, every cents increase in CPO will contribute to bottom line. So at CPO of 4500, an extra 500 up in CPO price will easily contribute 25 to 30mil(gross is. 70k x 500 = rm35mil) of net profit. Expecting 2Q FY 25 net profit will be Rm85mil to Rm100mil.
For jtiasa, don’t only look at P&L, the free cash flow is the real power, jtiasa’s cash flow will be more than 400mil for fy25 based on the company forecast FFb of 1.25 mil tons, which is about 10% increase from FY 2024. Jtiasa has quite a big amount of depreciation and impairment(timber division) due to the accounting standard, which I m not going to discuss here in details. Depreciation and impairment are NON cash items and is tax deductable.
Do your own judgement for any decision making. It is just a sharing here.

Rather than purely looking at profit, solid cash flow and cash in bank that is the power for coming dividend.. According to source, company will be giving out more and more dividend with no more further capex and in net cash position now.
Anyhow, that is my sharing, make your own judgements.

More passive funds are coming to invest in jtiasa as shown in the latest AR as expected. It is good sign. It is still in early day before more passive funds join the stocks after the dividend and coming QR. Just give a fair market PE of 15.. this stock will be star of year..

After disposing it plantation, TSH, it's monthly and quarterly CPO production volume was significant decrease QoQ, therefore, despite evelated CPO price, TSH upcoming EPS may report decrease earning QoQ. TSH will need to spend hundred of millions for expansion to plant the new land, this will take another 5 to 6 years to bear fruits, TSH's gearing may go up in coming years.

Only look at TSH in 5 to 6 years time later...
After listening to one of the Plantation expert in phillip group chat, who predictimg TSH will lagging for years and Jtiasa will be going up slowly to reflect the fair value RM1.6 to Rm2.2 coming yeas with 6 to 7 div yield. SO, i sold all my TSH and shifted to Jtiasa which is in the Best time to buy. GOOD and LUCKY,,,

hi, I3 is a good platform for knowledge and sharing, NOT for attacking. Sometime, it is pointless to attack if u are disagree with others opinions, everyone has their own opinions. So, take the good opinions and ignore the bad one...

Just a sharing for you and clear your doubt on Jtiasa FFB productions. Palm oil trees FFB production is seasonal, usually it is Lowest FFB production seasonal from Jan to May of the year and the production will slowly pick up from 3rd Q of the year and Peak at Dec.
By analysing plantation stock, u need to look at the whole yr FFB for your forecast, CAN'T look at the single months or particular Q.
If i m not wrong and in my memory, Jtiasa's whole year FFB was about 1mil MT In 2019 and CPO price was about RM1900 and the 1.155 MT for FY2024 (CPO RM3900 to Rm4000) was the highest FFB so far. Then in 2020 covid hit, FFB drop drastic and slowly picking up in 2021, 2022, 2023 and then 2024 1.155 mil MT.
Management forcasts FY FFB is 1.2mil+ MT which..

Seeing so many doubts here. Just a sharing on Jtiasa as i am involved in plantation business.
Jtiasa ONLY ventured into palm oil plantation business 20 years ago, it has been taking almost 15 years to fully planted the land 68,000 hectares, this has cost them almost RM1.5 to Rm2bil for the planting cost. FYI, Jtiasa's land cost is very minimium ( the rented land), if you need to buy the land( 68k hectares), this will cost you a BOM(another few bil). FYI, it is NOT easy and SUPER challeging to clear the FREASH land, to plant palm tress in fresh land, 68k hectares in 15 years. we should give them a credit for doing this in 15 years.

If you looked at Jtiasa Balance sheet 7 to 10 years back, the borrowing was about RM1,5bil. For replanting, it will be much easier and less costly as the land infastructure, roads, water dispensing river, worker house and so on are all ready. Planting on FRESH LAND IS SUPER SUPER HARD AND COSTLY compared to replanting.
As we know that Jtiasa's FCF is super strong, which has been utiized to settle all the borrowing past 7 years, NOW it is in NET cash position.
Now, All the debts have been settled, Jtiasa is in the turning and pivot point BIG BIG profit and Cash flow coming days with minimium capex. This is the BEST plantation stage to invest in plantation stock. COMING DAYS- Dividend. JUST AS INNO, KIMLOONG AND UTDPLNT,,

No body can predict the short term price movement due to speculative factors involved.

In the longer term, fundamental, earning and profit, will definitely determine the price.

Fundamentally, As compared to jtiasa, rsawit has very weak fundamental, cash in bank only couple millions, debt almost 400mil, cash flow is negative which can’t even support further capex. More, company is facing LHDN tax suit case of Rm58mil. Thus, the company need more fresh cash to survive by selling plantation lands lately. Going forward, Rsawit still need more cash for future capex and times I order to turn around. Expecting the company will be in challenging situation coming yrs.

Genuine longer term Market investors, cold eye, are smart enough to pick jtisa over Rsawit, which punters and traders will trade Rsawit due to good CPO price sentiments.

When water tide goes off, u can see whose is naked.

The BEST timing to pick and invest in a plantation stocks is when The company has gone through the EXPANSION AND PLANTING stage. During this stage, BILLIONS was spent and interest was incurred. Not only that, it is best after 7 years of the expansion stage, only the Palm trees bear Fruits and Debts is paid off.
In whole bursa, ONLY Jtiase meet this criteria and it is NOW in this timing to INVEST in Jtiasa. Soon Jtiasa will start to pay more and more dividends with almost RM 400 mil cash flow every years without further capex needed as 93 % of the land have been planted with tree age 7 to 14 yrs.
INNO and KIM Long were good example if those had invested when both of them at the after 6 - 7 after the CAPEX stage..

Jan to March It is traditional low production session for FFB, it is KNOWN to market. SO, Don't foresee market will have much impact on this.
Market usually value plantation stock bases on the forecast annual FFB and Average CPO price.

For Jtiasa, The company has forecasted FY24 FFB production of 1.1mil ton, based on last 2Q, company has achieved 68% FFB of its forecast of 1.1m tons. So the forecast for FY24 of 1.1mil ton is achievable and maybe surpass its target.

Coming Q results, Palm oil division will be flat or better, or maybe there will be surprised UPSIDE earning. As the timber price has bottom and is increasing lately, Jtiasa's timber division may have turning around to profitability. Last Q there is an impairment on biological assets of RM30mil on timber division due to accounting standard, without this, the coming Q results will be showing HUGE improvement for timber division coming Q.

Based on CPO of RM 3700 to RM4000, Jtiasa is estimated profit RM 220 mil to RM 240 mil, EPS of RM 0.22 to RM 0.24, Free Cash Flow of RM 400mil. Without debts now and No further capex, company is expecting to increase the dividend.

By comparing to the peers in plantation, PE is ranging from 10 to 20 times, Jtiasa's coming PE of less than 6 is seem to be attractive. Basically, you can hardly see a stocks in Bursa with so strong CASH FLOW, NO debts, strong BS and stable biz,,

If CPO can stay above RM4000, Jtiasa will hit Jackpot, an increase in 10 % in CPO will increase Jtiasa's profit by 25 to 30%..

In 2014, jtisa was worth tat price for the “assets”, but not earning. if u are buying the asset or the company is liquidating or sell the assets and return u all the money. .. Worth the assets. Now we are buying jtiasa for the earning, profit and cash flow, market and price will only appreciate and reflect the earning.
If u are looking to buy assets back stocks, should go for Property stocks or even better in Hong Kong which the share price is more than 70% discount form NRAV ..

When some and KKY shouted at jtiasa, in 2014, I did not join as I know well the plantation company’s operation when they are in expansion mode with huge debts, Profit will not come in as palm trees need 6-7 yrs to yield, there were uncertainty many during this period, e.g CPO fluctuation.. KKY was right in 2014 tat jtiasa would be blue chip company, but it is too early not in 2014.. it will be in 2024 when his estimation profit will start to kick in coming days..

@ integrity—

beside growth, At this moment, jtiasa is at turning point and deeply under value. Price will just need to slowly reflect it value to market peers of PE 10 to 15.
Let’s look at some figures here:
1) management estimate yearly FFB of 1.1 mil tons, as per six month, company has achieved 70% of 1.1mil.
2) Based on above, for whole year, estimating company profit RM220 to Rn240 mil, cash flow of RM360 to Rm400 mil.. PE of 6 times..
The above estimation is base on CPO of btw Rm 3700 to Rm4000 throughout the year.
If CPO can stay at this level, jtiasa will making huge profit, CPO above RM4000 will be another big bonus.

What is the downside risk: CPO crash to below 3000 which I think jtias profit will be half to Rm100 mil, cash flow Rm 200 mil.. which is still good..

The market still don’t see the value at this turning point.. many investors’ mind are still stuck 2014.

Figures, facts and solid cash flow in bank speak everything. In market, don’t assume and talk talk. Don’t simply listen to all guru.. do your own research..

Hi, Just bit of my sharing here. I am 1st time to look at Jtiasa for it super Rich valuation and i did not join in 2014 when KYY shouted on Jtiasa.

As i mentioned earlier, I have read an article on how to pick a plantation stock in one of the investing plaform by an Plantation Expert:-
Titled :- WHY Jtiasa is much better than TSH, even both are good company.
Just to highlight again the point on why i joined Jtiasa this time. By looking at the fundamental:-
1) Free cash flow is about RM 400 to 500 mil a year, Earning is Rm220 to Rm240 mil P.A. Last Quarter, depreciation and armotisation is about RM100 mil, total free Cash flow alone was RM 150mil, think the company is trying to delay the earning. We will be expecting the earning will surface and spike in coming days. More, The company have paid off the debt of RM1.4 bil since 2014 when KYY was shouted on Jtiasa. During the yr 2014, Jtisa was in the expansion stage with HUGE debts of RM 1.4 bil, Palm trees take 6 -7 yrs to mature and yielding. So, You will not see the Results till this 7 yrs time. This case will happen to TSH for coming yrs, Expansion and Gearing up and wait for another 7 yrs.
For Jtiasa, The expansion stage is over now and no capex is needed coming yrs. The free solid cash flow will be Used to rewarded shareholders for higher dividend or Buying new plantations.
Again, When KYY shouted In 2014, he was right this company would be another bluechip plantation stocks with HUGE earning. But his timing was a bit early, what he was expected the earning in 2014 is starting to KICK in now in 2024. Now, Jtiasa, 2024 No debts ( 2017 debts 1.4 bil) , 2024 interest expense NIL ( 2017 RM 50mil), 2024 cash At bank RM 300 mil ( 2017 Debts). Expecting the price will slowly reflect the earning coming days. It is a different Jtiasa now compared to in 2017. Many are still stuck in the mind in 2017,,,,

I learn that there are many long tern investors are looking at this stocks lately. It is in the eye of some funds who will need to wait till the results to be confirmed to BUY even they buy at higher price.

AT CPO btw RM 3700 to RM 4000, Jtiasa will be making Tons of money, CPO above RM 4000 is another BIG Jackpot...

Currently Only Jtiasa is turning around financially, operationally and printing money.
Rsawit, Debts few hundred million, palm trees NOT good, companies still burning money for new plantings which will take another 6 to 7 yrs to yield, Debt gearing is expecting to go up further for expansion as almost no cash at bank now, LEGAL case sued by LDHN 58 millions.... That why they need to sell land to survive, need time, 6 to 7 or 10 yrs to turn around... Results will be in RED for many yrs to come...

Jtiasa is in the best position for huge cash flow coming yrs among the plantation stocks. Forget other plantation stock like SOP or TSH which has either fully value or limited upside.

Jtiasa have started to diversify into palm oil 14 yrs ago, it take 14 yrs to plant the 69k Hecate, costing almost 2 bil +…it is a huge effort and long journey. With limited land now, no one can do this again. Expecting it will be another blue chip plantation stocks soon.

@ Super A:

look at the cash flow.. The timer loses is just and accounting reporting standard, NOT involved In CASH. It is not a business loses, just a accouting reporting only. When market timber price down last Q, the accounting standard require the company to adjust down, when timber price up next Q, they will adjust up,,,
Most important is to look at this:

6 months end 31/12/2023:
Free operating cash flow rm228mil
EBITADA - RM 253 mil
CASH IN HAND UP to RM300 mil from RM 200mil
Debts down to 230mil from RM 264 mil

Div 2.5 cents, 21% earning now, indicating increasing DIV moving forward,,,,

Really CASH COW printing machine now... CASH is more superior than paper profit...

6 months end 31/12/2023:
Free operating cash flow rm228mil
EBITADA - RM 253 mil
CASH IN HAND UP to RM300 mil from RM 200mil
Debts down to 230mil from RM 264 mil

Div 2.5 cents, 21% earning now, indicating increasing DIV moving forward,,,,

Really CASH COW printing machine now... CASH is more superior than paper profit...

The IPP is now Paper profit without solid cash dividend. Looking at the local biz, company still need some time to stop the bleeding, especially Mall & the property div, Empty mall and keep burning cash flow of RM10 to 20 mil per Q, the high admin and interest expenses don't seem to stop so fast. With current PP of RM24 mil which can last for another Qs. From the past years, the company is living on fresh cash, PP, borrowing and RI. Wondering how much the 50 MW cash flow can help the company to subsidy the local loses and high admin cost. Expexting another PP or RI in the near future? or waiting the IPP to declare more div coming year end...?

All "paper profit" from the IPP now without declaring any solid cash dividend from the IPP. The company is Burning its Cash now at almost RM10 to 20mil per Q for the local biz loses, without taking into the investing cash out flow, paying for loses in construction, property biz and interest, now bank balance left nothing, NEGATIVE. With the current PP of RM 24mil+, which can last for another Q. Wondering How to sustain the business into another Q.. Another PP at lower price again, and PP again? Company will only turn around unless the local construction and property biz stop bleeding...

Lets discuss some concerns on FRS 17:-

FRS17 full details is not released by BNM. There is no CASH flow impact on the company, there maybe some accounting profit if there is any. To my understanding, there will be minimum impact on the takaful, most of the insurance company has been preparing for the FRS17 years back instructed by regulatory body.

The impact on Takaful will be less less impact than expected, as Takaful is sitting on RM 1.2bil insurance reserve surplus which can be utilized..

Market is dynamic, there are so many players and opinions... No wrong or right.. Happy Investing...

Fundamentally, the profit has been growing 10% to 15 % annually without FAILED from RM140 mil in 2014 to RM 362mil in 2020, expecting the trend will continues with the majority muslim population in malaysia and strong tied up with banks & LPPSA & Gov. Comapany is siting with very healthy insurance reserve surplus of more than RM1.2bil ....... Do more research and make your investment decision based on JUSTIFICATIONS AND FACTS, instead of Pasar gossips...

Gamuda is one of best proxy for recovery. Gamuda business and earning is resilient, business division includes: 1) Construction and infra, 2) Property and 3) Infra and water utilities. For construction, it is the biggest in malaysia, coming job include Penang transportation master plan worth 6 bil and MRT 3 which will roll out next year. More, It is tendering JOB in Australia worth AUS 6bil. FOR MRT 3, it is certain that Gamuda will get the job with the previous expertise and the tunneling machine, i really cant think of others who has expertise and financial to undertake MRT work. For the property division, the business is well diversified into other contries, e.g. singapore, Vietnam which is doing well. Under the Infra and water division, gamuda controls four highways in malaysia, this division's earning is very resilient and contrubutes consistently about RM 200mil +++ yearly. In addition, It is proposing to set up a Highway Trust worth RM6bil+ to unlock the highway value, so expecting a special dividend if this materilise. Financially, the balance sheet is very strong with debt gearing below 0.3..

It is time to accumulate now, buying is coming back to ytl stocks... ytl power and mcement are moving now... YTL too,,,

Preference (PA) share will usually trade at a "discount or below RM 1 nominee value.
PA can only be used if U are exercising( surrender) your warrant @ 0.90.

MNRB Seem much better bet than Takaful in term of value....Both TA and FA seem better. Momentum is picking up...

hi, DK, OTB & SSLEE,
i read some of your comments on Jaks, i can see all of your have done deep and details research on Jaks. Can youy give some advise and opinion on Jaks for coming years. Regardless of the past and drop im price, Is Jaks a good buy for "future"? Is the power plant project going well? Thanks...

Hng33
When is the expected ex date for the dividend Rm 0.15 ?

New TP by analyst: Aminvest 1.13, MIDF 1.17, Kenaga 0.77

Market rebounded strongly and KLCI crossed 1400 pts following the global and US strong's rebound. The market has passed through the 1st "recovery phase" from recent sell down. The next phase is "Reality phase" with the reporting sessions coming. During this reality phase, those with good fundamental stocks will tend to out perform the market. Look out for Muhibah for it catalyst to explore.

In stock market, An investor is emphasized on FA, future prosper of the stock/business, that is why Warren buffer seldom talks about TA, e.g. the support & resistance on stock's daily movement. Trader is more concerned on TA, daily stock's price movement. Finally, syndicate/speculator is mostly concerned on "player" psychology and "pasar" news flows. This is so called NA (No Analysis).
13/04/2020 1:02 PM

This forum is for sharing and discussion, there is no right and wrong answer. This is share market which is so dynamics, even same theory/TA/FA, there are differences interpretations, that why there are buyers and sellers taking different positions. Anyhow, not a single theory and method suits anyone, all depend on investor's risk appetite. Do your own research and make your own judgement with FACTS & JUSTIFICATIONS.

GOOD to hear different opinions and noises in this forum, which is useful for stock analysis, and to learn investor's behavior and psychology...

Share market investment and analysis is a combination of many factors, TA, FA and psychology, it is so dynamics... SO investors should not BLINDLY follow any theory and BOOK. A top lecturer and profession does't mean he is GOOD investor...

When the dust is settled down, all goes back to Fundamental. Technical is just for indication, that is tracking the past "history" and predicting the "future". In fact, TA is not so sutable for stock that is not so liquid and small capitalised stocks. Fundamentally this stock is deeply undervalued. Waiting for good catalyst for upgrade.

The deal is expected be completed in 1st quarter 2020.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3017671

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/manulife-partners-takaful-ikhlas-tap-syariahcompliant-market

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cimb-islamictakaful-ikhlas-general-partnership-eyes-doubledigit-growth

Takaful Price is fully reflected of the earnings.. Infact, It is over valued at this P/E of 15. There are other Takaful stock with low PE like MNRB P/E 5, which is better choice...

In similar insurance sector, MNRB price just start to run, offering more upside and limited downside ..

Price momentum is picking up... Up trend ...

Takaful spike again to new high.GOOD..

solaris, is that reliable news privatization 1.80?

solaris, is that reliable news privatization 1.80? i see this MNRB deeply undervalued and it just have a restructuring last year. The profit is just started to kick in...

Anyhow, Takaful's price has up so much... MNRB can worth a look as the price is just started to move, down side is limited. RISK and Return.. Personal risk profile...

Price is picking up since Quarter profit of RM60mil, EPS rm0.125... It is good time to accumulate again.. BY looking at Takaful which has been running to Rm7+, mnrb is worth buying..

Takaful is flying, MNRB is another takaful insurance stock which is lagging... Will catch up soon,,

MNRB's financial & fundamental and the operation have improved substantially with RI and capitalization last year, expecting better financial ahead.

Malaysia takaful business is still has great potential by looking at Takaful's great QR result and takaful stock hit RM6+ today..

MNRB is lagging and deeply undervalued, it will be catching up very soon, expecting good result ahead. Good time to accumulate....

It is undervalue stock as compared to Takaful... The RI last year was BNM's requirement for MNRB to recapitalise its Life and General takaful business. Moving forwards, results will be improving..

MNRB is deeply under value as compare to Takaful which have been running up to RM5.25. Good time to accumulate more ..

TH have been disposing for last few days, but the price keeps trending up. It seem that the shares disposed by TH were slowly collected. Recalled that MRCB had received RM2 bil +++ from TH gov, somethings seem coming.. LOOK OUT...