Posted by tch123 > 2021-07-14 09:20 | Report Abuse

Read about how Bursa market & Syndicate listed companies carry out corporate raid here
https://site785.wordpress.com/

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-14 09:48 | Report Abuse

Stay far far away from dubious companies and person. Always do homework and focus on quality.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-07-14 12:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tch123 > 2021-07-14 16:48 | Report Abuse

Only if Bursa enforcement were to be REAL. https://savem3tech.wordpress.com/

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-15 16:33 | Report Abuse

Mkt vol today not bad. More than RM3.2 bil. Good income for Bursa. Gloves up, Bursa benefit. Good business to be in.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-16 10:47 | Report Abuse

lionel messi , as the old saying goes..."one swallow doesn't make a summer"............or a marriage :)

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-16 12:05 | Report Abuse

haha agree. but more swallows are coming.

Posted by Lioncity > 2021-07-16 14:40 | Report Abuse

Consolidation at 7.63-7.64, good entry point I’d say.

Posted by Jeffreyteck > 2021-07-17 14:47 | Report Abuse

With higher vaccinated rate in UK and confidently open up, free gift came immediately for its prime minster. As for us, nothing to worry as gov works very hard. Afterall as politician said no country successfully fight against covid.
Est market to move in positive correlation with gov efforts and number of genious politicians we have.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-18 09:07 | Report Abuse

LOL Jeffreyteck, thanks for making my smile on a Sunday morning. Your last sentence is pure gold :)

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-19 09:31 | Report Abuse

A lot done at RM7.50 this morning. Nice. Error or forced selling. Best buys.

Posted by Valgrovest > 2021-07-19 11:36 | Report Abuse

Aiya..missed 7.50. Still got chance?

Posted by Valgrovest > 2021-07-19 11:39 | Report Abuse

QR to be released on 28/7 (next Wed)....Hope got declare dividend too

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-19 11:56 | Report Abuse

Sure to have. Cast in stone. At least twice a year. Only question is the quantum.

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-19 16:55 | Report Abuse

Mkt vol today not bad. Almost RM3.5 bil. I sense more swallows are flying in Treetop. Be prepared.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-20 08:27 | Report Abuse

lionel messi, I will be waiting to see the upcoming quarterly before I make any decision :)

Anything is possible in this current market environment.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-07-20 08:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-20 09:38 | Report Abuse

Good morning Bgt and agree Treetop. You are so prudent your risk management is so high. Suspect you seldom ever lose money in the market. Happy investing.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-20 10:17 | Report Abuse

lionel messi, anyone who says they have never made a loss at some stage investing in the stock market is either a liar or has never bought a single share :)

Actually, I am quite new to the Malaysian stock market, only buying my first stock last year. I have spent about 20 years investing in overseas markets with various levels of involvement. For about 18 months I was a consultant writer/analyst for a stock market magazine, mainly researching exploration/early start mining companies but eventually moved out of the business after an offer from an Australian company. Those 18 months as a researcher taught me a lot about the industry (probably why I left....lol) but it did also teach me more about risk and reward and to not jump into hype.

My interest is more in line with investing as compared to day to day trading, although I do take the odd punt now and again, but rarely.

Best of luck with your investments, buddy.

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-20 17:18 | Report Abuse

Sweet spot Treetop. Actually investing in the Malaysia market can be an easy "basket" case. Meaning one doesn't have to be too smart or think so much and just put all eggs in one very very good basket which is reasonably priced, consistently high div, monopolistic or oligopolistic, cash business, debt free, good corporate governance and recession proof.

Bursa is one good example. Start at a relatively low entry price(like now), keep on buying gradually and consistently if it goes down further. Just hold forever (like what Buffett says) and live happily ever after. Collect yearly high div every year. Blissful.

No need to spread your bullets too thin by having a big portfolio which you may need to keep averaging. Investment 101.

Posted by Sailangking > 2021-07-21 10:52 | Report Abuse

who managed to catched 7.5 on monday...

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-22 12:11 | Report Abuse

The chart looks a bit shaky right now with the downtrend obviously still in play.
Just putting this out there for debate, if anyone is interested:

a) How do you think the market will react if the revenue/profit for the upcoming quarterly is 5% to 10% lower than the previous quarter?

b) Likewise similar question if the revenue drops more that 10%?

IMO, either option is quite possible.

Posted by sakurako > 2021-07-22 21:08 | Report Abuse

Looking at value transacted, I predict coming qr profit drop around 25%, EPS 0.11, take pe 20, Bursa can reach RM 8.8 (just wait patiently), RM 7.35 is a resistant, hold it guys

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-23 09:20 | Report Abuse

Waiting is the worst thing isn't it? All the above scenarios can be true. No rocket science. But market is a strange forward looking animal. It often does not behave as expected. Notwithstanding, hope there will be best buys for everybody at below RM7.00. Happy and savvy investing. Cheers.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-23 12:41 | Report Abuse

Not long to wait now for the quarterly, which will be released next Wednesday.

Posted by bullcock > 2021-07-23 15:28 | Report Abuse

@TreeTopView, looking at the price action I think market already priced in a slight drop in revenue/eps for the 2Q of between 10% to 25%; but you will still be seeing a respectable eps of between 11 sens to 13.5 sens. So I opine that Bursa is unlikely to fall much further from the current 760 level, perhaps a small knee jerk drop below 750 from panicky retailers. Also @ sakurako, if eps is at the low end of 11 sens, that's still very respectable and if assume the same for the remaining 2 quarters, we will still see a healthy 48 sens full-year eps. Bursa has a declared consistent payout ratio of 90% dividend policy . So my expectation is a full year dps of at least 43 sens; I would expect an interim dps of 17 sens maybe even more and a final dps of 26.5 sens maybe even more. Patience is a virtue when investing in a slow and tardy market like Bursa; if you want excitement and adrenaline rush you might want to consider the US market. @ lionel messi, don't lose patience and waiting is part and parcel of happy and savvy investing .... Cheerios guys and let's see what goodies the 2Q results bring.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-24 10:58 | Report Abuse

I've jotted down some of my thoughts to consider on Bursa. I'm certainly not going to say they are correct but merely some of my own thought bubbles about the current market situation.

Personally, I don't think there is much point in focussing too much with the upcoming EPS in the quarterly. Even if it was to drop to somewhere between 10 to 12, it wouldn't make a huge difference to the rolling 4 quarters average. As Bursa has had a stellar previous 3 quarters (outstanding, actually), any blip in earnings will have minimal effect on the rolling 4 quarters. So attributing a preset PE on the earnings, at this point anyway, is probably ineffective.

What is important though regarding the 3 previous outstanding quarters is to question if it is sustainable, even if this current quarter slips a little.If you go back only 12 months ago the EPS of 10.7 cents was seen as very good result, only to find that the following quarter's EPS increased to 15.10....a magnificent result on top of the previous very good result.

So what drove such a rise in earnings over those 3 quarters? The time frame was from July 2020 to end of March 2021. Revenue actually started to increase prior to July 2020, as can be seen in the previous quarter lead up. I'd say some of the reasons are quite clear:

a) Market sell off due to initial Covid outbreak.
b) A large number of new entrants into the market (Covid related)
c) "Hot money" entering the market due to the loan moratorium.
d) A 200+ point rise in the KLCI from October to December 2020.

With those points in mind, can anyone really see that "perfect storm" of market engagement anytime soon? I'd suggest we would need to see that to have any realistic chance of achieving EPS of 15 cents per quarter over a sustainable period. In the current climate I'd say it would have a very slim chance of happening, in the short term at least

Perhaps the final quarter of this calendar year might show stronger market sentiment as things gradually recover. I have an end of year target for the KLCI of around 1,650 which seems like a madman's dream right now but a 100 to 130 point rise isn't too unrealistic if there are no curve ball traps from Covid. If that's the case then the market and Bursa may have a decent final calendar quarter.

Being conservative, I'm not seeing an EPS of 15 over a sustainable period for quite some time.Sentiment is the key and that needs to change, the BIG question is when will that occur.

Apologies for blabbing on, once I get started I sometimes don't know when to stop :)

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-24 13:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by sakurako > Jul 22, 2021 9:08 PM | Report Abuse

Looking at value transacted, I predict coming qr profit drop around 25%, EPS 0.11, take pe 20, Bursa can reach RM 8.8 (just wait patiently), RM 7.35 is a resistant, hold it guys

********************************************************

Hi sakurako,
I can see from the chart why you mention 7.35 as a support area. Should that break then we could possibly see 6.95 to 7.10 coming into play.
I'll take a look at the Fibonacci numbers but I suspect there might be too many variables for a detailed result. I'll post those numbers if I can see anything worth posting.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-24 13:33 | Report Abuse

Just to bore you all a bit more :) here are some Fib numbers.

8.12, broken. Interestingly, it flirted around that area for the last 2 weeks of May before eventually falling. No surprise there considering the overall market sentiment.

Next, 7.46. Still to be tested. Whether it gets there is an unknown.

Next, 6.80. IF 7.46 breaks down then the next Fib target is 6.80. That doesn't mean it will drop to 6.80 but if it was to get close then you wouldn't want to see it broken.

Posted by bullcock > 2021-07-24 14:24 | Report Abuse

@TreeTopView, you've posted some very interesting thoughts and numbers. Bursa 1818 is not a well traded stock; these past few months especially after the glove-induced euphoria collapsed dramatically, the volumes traded on Bursa also came down in tandem. Looking at those Fibo numbers 7.46, 6.80 you stated .... yes, they are not too far fetched considering that Bursa was hovering around the 620 level only around Dec20/Jan21 before plunging along with every other stocks to the Covid19 low of 4.32 on 19 Mar 2020. But I am not that pessimistic and I don't see why a stock that's earning such a very decent eps and paying a regular respectable dividend should drop to these levels again considering the progressively improving outlook in dealing with Covid19 through increased testings, vaccination etc. I believe the situation will improve from hereon and your year end target of 1650 for the KLCI is a realistic one; in fact I think it will overshoot once the euphoria returns to the malaysian market. And when that happens, sakurako sir crossing your 8.80 target should be a breeze ! I am vested since long long ago patiently.....

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-24 15:58 | Report Abuse

Hi @bullcock, thanks for your response, always nice to get some reaction from other posters, especially when it's not the usual i3investor shouts of "going to the moon", or that other favourite of so many here, "limit up tomolo"....lol :)

Just to correct you on something that was probably an understandable typo, it was Dec19/Jan20 when Bursa was around 6.20 before the March 2020 plunge.

Probably what we should be looking at is what we believe the EPS of Bursa would be in a regular stable market. If we could define that figure, then it would be much easier to place valuations. Using the previous 3 sensational quarters might not be the ideal starting point. Would prior to that run, where it was having quarterly EPS' of around 6 cents, 8 cents and 10 cents be more of a realistic starting point, then adjust for one or two more positive quarters during the year to be the extra cream?

This is my current dilemma, I just can't define a sweet spot to use as an average, as the last 3 quarters have blown everything out of the water.

Thanks again for responding and best of luck.

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-24 16:30 | Report Abuse

You guys are so so smart. Me....just happy it's a very safe stock and if div yield is much better than bank's FD. Although like you all said, past performance does not guarantee future achievement, believe div yield will always be above 5% at current price. Of course lower the price the better for yield. Mkt will always be in a flux and super volumes will return. Don't read or predict too much the numbers. Buy gradually and consistently. Sorry for being too simplistic. Happy and savvy investing.

Posted by bullcock > 2021-07-24 19:42 | Report Abuse

Well said TreeTopView ! Thank you for your correction and insightful comments. You are very right to not place too much weightage to "the previous 3 sensational quarters" for the purpose of deriving a "sweet spot" to use as an average. I've been a smalltime retail investor in Bursa since 2010 and perhaps I might be able to give you a clearer historical perspective on it's EPS :
Fy 2008 was 19.90 sens (the Low) and FY 2020 was 46.70 sens (the High) in between every year was profitable somewhere in between these two numbers- remember all these years the shareholding base was only 531m shares. Then came the bonus share (ex date was 10 Apr 2018) distribution "1 for 2" in FY 2018 this was the bumper year where dps for the year was a whopping 53.50 sens. So you can see how juicy it was "all these good years" for those 531m shares for longterm shareholders of Bursa! Fast forward to today - Bursa is now a much more progressive exchange with several more sure-earn "money spinners" (you can see what these are and their relative contribution to the bottomline in their segmental income streams by downloading any of the recent quarterly results). Now fast-forward to our discussion today where TreeTopView rightly pointed out that these 3 recent quarters' eps of 15.1 sens (3Q ending Sep20), 13 sens (4Q ending Dec20); and 15 sens (1Q ending Mar21) and mind you, these are based on an enlarged shareholding base of 810m shares - just imagine if not for this, the numbers would have been 22.65 sens, 19.5 sens and 22.50 sens respectively -- I think you are spot on when you used the word "sensational"... indeed ! So , I think 11 sens is a good sweet spot plus/minus a sen or two more no big deal for investment decision making.
Our friend here sakurako's also been looking closely at the daily volume/value of transactions on Bursa's bourse and his estimate of 11 sens is quite an educated guess, I think. Perhaps, at the end of the day being small time retailers our trades as well as our comments will not make an iota of difference to Bursa's price/volume behaviour; so our great footballer namesake @lionel messi simplistic approach may well turn out to be the best. You guys are indeed savvy investors, Cheers and thank you for all the good wishes : may we all be happy, peaceful and comfortable in our own individual investment decisions !

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-07-25 09:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-25 09:58 | Report Abuse

Thanks @bullcock for an astute and polite response.

The key to everything we have brought up this weekend is probably summarised in your final paragraph. It confirms, to me anyway, that debate in a forum like this can be a benefit to whoever reads or joins in. We are not here to force or persuade others with our thoughts and opinions, but merely opening up discussion. With discussion, all of us may find variables that we hadn't considered before, so that has to be a good thing.

I would certainly never say my opinion on any matter in the market is always correct but I do like to do some research and then share my thoughts with others for debate. A logical process for a stock market forum, in my opinion.

All the best to those who joined in and let's see what unfolds in the short term. Enjoy the rest of your day and stay smart and safe.

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-25 10:11 | Report Abuse

Wow, you guys must be straight As students. Me just did some lazy and elementary homework and found out that fellow listed exchanges like SGX, HKSE and ASX have much lower div yield at less than 3%. Just to share and try to bring some value to the table. Shy Shy.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-25 10:31 | Report Abuse

Hi @lionel messi, don't ever put yourself down. Whatever investing style that works for you and produces a profit is a good outcome. Your input is as valuable as anyone else s, so keep posting. And, you're clearly a better football player than I ever was :)

You mentioned the ASX company dividends, which I'm very familiar with and you are correct to state that generally their divi payouts are much lower than we see here. Various reasons for that but generally because of the tax system over there, where receiving a fully franked dividend ( full tax paid) is more beneficial to investors.I wont go into detail in here about their tax system as it's a total head f**k!! :)

Keep smiling, buddy !

Posted by Nalab72 > 2021-07-25 19:50 | Report Abuse

Hi tree top, thanks a lot for posting the link to find bursar's monthly trading volume. Much appreciated.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-26 07:38 | Report Abuse

Nalab72, you're welcome.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-07-26 08:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jeffreyteck > 2021-07-26 12:51 | Report Abuse

Market momentum will chart its direction as bursa fundamentals is given.
... Domestic... Uncertain justice for 23k contract dr (how accurate, why so many?)... Sudden shortage of teachers.... Plan may be failed but without a plan, need to pray hard for success.
Amid working hard to do covid testing which resulting in a rising trend of cases, and possibility of losening for those completed vaccination, future looks so bright as in uk.

Posted by yfchong > 2021-07-27 13:53 | Report Abuse

Just join this ship...

Posted by Jack_Kaw > 2021-07-27 23:16 | Report Abuse

Hello, how are you all doing? I'm new to investing and just brought this stock recently
Any stop-loss advise? or DCA....

Posted by lionel messi > 2021-07-28 08:08 | Report Abuse

Excellent choice Jack. Cannot guarantee it will not go under water in the short term but long term you will be very very fine. Like guru Buffett said: the best time to buy is when you have the money and the best time to sell is never. Caveat though: only applies to quality shares at reasonable price. Keep adding whenever possible or necessary. A good thing is never enough.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-07-28 08:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jack_Kaw > 2021-07-28 08:55 | Report Abuse

Thanks @lionel messi ;)

Posted by Loh Kok Wai W > 2021-07-28 11:01 | Report Abuse

Bursa is Captain of Robber.....look at all penny stock.....like Fntec,Lambo,XOX,Anzo,Dolphin,Mtouch,Inix,Netx.n more......all those counters all push thier price high...after that press price down price and getting smaller or ESOS .....but Bursa never take action anymore......many investment unlike ............

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-28 13:45 | Report Abuse

Quarterly out.

Revenue Rm196.1 Mill ( down Rm36 mill from previous Q)
Profit Rm88.97 mill (down Rm32 mill. from previous Q)

A good surprise for holder, 24 cent dividend.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-28 13:46 | Report Abuse

Forgot to add, EPS 11 cents.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2021-07-28 13:50 | Report Abuse

Probably in line with what @bullcock and I were thinking over the weekend. I was 50/50 on whether revenue would dip below $200 million and it ended at Rm196 mill, so we weren't too far off.