This stock has been sleeping for too long... With CPO prices jumped RM66 yesterday, it may be time to look at IJMPlant again. I remember last year July this stock was trading at around RM3.70
consider ioicorp, despite the forex and last year weak cpo, it's core earning STILL up 29.4% q-o-q and 19.3% y-o-y. with this year cpo expected to be above $27xx ~ $28xx, ioicorp earning can jump in fold. ioicorp is also a fully integrated plantation co. (end-to-end producer)
btw, ijmplant and ioicorp r top no.1 & 2 FFB yield company. yr $ yr choice!
KUALA LUMPUR (June 15): Mass Rapid Transit Corp Sdn Bhd (MRT Corp) has awarded an RM342.18 million contract to IJM Construction Sdn Bhd. The contract involves building stations along the MRT Sungai Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya (SSP) Line.
In a statement today, Malaysian Government-owned MRT Corp said IJM would build MRT stations at Sri Delima, Kampung Batu, Kentonmen and Jalan Ipoh.
“IJM Construction has a lot of experience working on the MRT project and this will be invaluable as they proceed with working on this newest contract. I believe they will maintain their very good track record with our project and will give their best to perform well for the SSP Line project,” MRT Corp chief executive officer Datuk Seri Shahril Mokhtar said in the statement.
Shahril said MRT Corp selected IJM from seven bidders on best-evaluated tender basis. He said MRT Corp had taken into account the bids' technical, commercial, legal and financial aspects.
IJM had earlier secured contracts from MRT Corp. According to MRT Corp's statement, IJM is also the contractor for the construction of the elevated guideway from Jinjang to Jalan Ipoh.
"Previously, IJM Construction had been awarded two contracts under the MRT Sungai Buloh – Kajang (SBK) Line, which are the construction and completion of the viaduct guideway and other associated works from the Maluri Portal to the Taman Connaught Station (Elevated Section V5), as well as the construction and completion of elevated stations and other associated works at Taman Pertama, Taman Midah, Taman Mutiara and Taman Connaught (Package S5)," MRT Corp said.
I thought RM2.5 is cheap, But keep dropping. What's going? company doesn't share buy back? 52 week share price drop from Rm3.5 to Rm 2.3. IJM board of director can you do something for shareholders?
1. plantation sector have only a neutral rating from most IB 2. unfavorable palm oil news in Europe 3. recent market correction 4. this company is just lame
Re: Kenanga's small picture ... In FY20, production yields are expected to improve as c.1,000 Ha comes into maturity. Maybe should look closer at the big picture that the Indon 23,730 Ha that was stated as immature palms in FY13 will eventually be classified as prime palms (8-10 yrs old) to contribute the bulk of production.
Indonesian palm oil stocks plunging.... Indonesian year-end stocks are seen plummeting by 6% to 3.650 million tons in December to the lowest in 9 months in response to lower production and unchanged domestic consumption in the country, according to median estimate from Bloomberg survey of analysts, refiners and plantation executives. Production is estimated to have fallen 7% to 3.870 million tons, also the lowest in 9 months and dipping below the 4 million ton mark for the first time in 6 months.
IJM Plantation is not the only plantation company that posted bad results in the most recent quarters. If you go through other financial reports, most (if not all) plantation companies are affected by the low CPO price in Jul-Sept period.
In terms of valuation, all plantation stocks are currently trading at a high PE multiple (for those that still managed to record profit) or in IJM Plantation case, negative PE. This is reflective of the downturn cycle of the plantation industry. Don't think that the industry will reverse their down cycle anytime soon given the general demand of the commodity is expected to go down in the future. China for example, is negotiating with US to take in more agriculture products from US which would potentially include soybean (or soybean oil). In general, Chinese consumption of oil would not actually go up that much so the increase of soybean oil import from US to China would actually be at the expense of other oil commodities from other countries (in particular palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia). Another issue is on the European demand of palm oil which is expected to go down exponentially given the proposed ban of palm oil use in food and transportation industries in the future. They have already agreed to phase out the use of palm oil in transport fuel by 2030. Some countries like France and Norway have already started to move away from palm oil.
If you are still interested in the plantation industry then you should try to look at other companies first (at least until IJM Plantation is really on a stable footing). You will notice that most plantation stocks have fallen but PE valuation is still high. As I mentioned earlier, this is normal given that the industry cycle is currently at the bottom as reflected by the CPO price. It is better for you to do a PE calculation using an average 5 years PAT to take into account the cyclical nature of the industry. With this in mind you need to have a slightly long-term investment horizon when buying into oil plantation companies.
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of IJM Plantation (due to its earnings uncertainties and bleak growth outlook) I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM10mil to RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
India's annual consumption of palm oil has increased from 5.7 M t in 2009 to 10.6 M t in 2018. Also, India relies on imports for 60-70% of its edible oil consumption. Import duty for refined palm oil in India is currently 45% compared to 54% earlier and this may reduce further as it will benefit India's consumers.
Urbanisation of farmers to Indian cities has translated to GDP growth and this will accelerate increase in employment and consumption.
Worldwide, demand for palm oil continues to rise. India uses the most, 17 percent of the global total, followed by Indonesia, the EU, and China. The United States currently ranks eighth. In 2018 global consumption is expected to reach 65 million tonnes, or roughly 9 kilograms of palm oil per person.
I find it difficult to come up with a consistent future projection based on the macro economics. There is too much input to be considered. I prefer to focus on an individual company financial performance.
The reason i like MBMR over IJM Plantation is not because i prefer the auto industry over the plantation industry. It's merely based on valuation. MBMR is currently trading at a PE of 6.9x and will be trading lower at 5.9x based on FY19 results backed by the reasons i mentioned above while IJM Plantation is currently having a negative PE. Even if the company managed to deliver a profit of RM115mil in FY19 which is similar to FY17 (where CPO price average at around RM2700 per tonne), at the current price the company would still be valued at 12.6x PE which is double that of MBMR. And this is only if CPO price were to increase to RM2700 which is a doubt given the negativity of the commodity outlook in the future.
Currently Indonesia and Malaysia are the 2 main producers of palm oil. But other regions have also started to explore the commodity especially regions with vast land supply like Africa and the South American countries (Peru for example has started to approach Indonesia companies for palm oil project. If you go to Lima you will be surprise to see a lot of Indonesians in the capital). Given our country's commitment to limit the expansion of the planting of new palm oil area, we might be faced with competitions from other nations to supply to our current existing clients in the future (India, China, African countries, US etc) which will affect the future business of Malaysian palm oil companies like IJM Plantation.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
necro
4,726 posts
Posted by necro > 2013-01-08 09:33 | Report Abuse
anak semalam da turun aini mak baru trun??