Posted by cheoky > 2017-06-21 09:28 | Report Abuse

refinery profit margin to be offset by inventory lose. as long as no drastic drop of crude. should be ok?

Posted by sheldon > 2017-06-21 09:29 | Report Abuse

Steep drop in crude oil prices. Retail sure to be revised downwards.

Getting crude for as low price as possible from hard negotiations / hedging is the key to prosperity but it's difficult to achieve that.

Posted by mamatede > 2017-06-21 09:33 | Report Abuse

Actually hard to say low crude equal better profit. See if everybody process lower crude and competiting for market share, they can end up selling lower product and this will translate to lower profit margin. so whats the point? if high crude price meh pass the cost to consumer, easy like that

Posted by LaLaLa > 2017-06-21 09:39 | Report Abuse

@Newmaster, IMHO, it is not as simple and straight forward as that, as from what I understand from the AGM, the result involves many things, such as refinery margin, their hedging process (important) for crude oil and currency fluctuation.

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2017-06-21 09:40 | Report Abuse

when at may crude price at 51.36 per barrel and petronm price at RM8.9. if crude drop to 51.36 x 15.5% = 43.53 per barrel,so petronm price at RM8.9 x 15.5% =RM7.52 .. is this calculation acceptable?

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-06-21 10:02 | Report Abuse

Drop more than RM1, I cut loss lah & will come back after price break RM9 resistance~
Don't want to take so much risk already, my cost at RM8.50 & cut loss at RM7.38 already enough~
Better play safe~

Posted by LaLaLa > 2017-06-21 10:05 | Report Abuse

one must be very busy to buy sell this stock based on the fluctuation of crude oil price... haha...

Posted by godofgamble > 2017-06-21 10:05 | Report Abuse

may drop to 7

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-21 10:09 | Report Abuse

those holding warrant gg

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 10:11 | Report Abuse

Panic selling, time to accumulate

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-21 10:17 | Report Abuse

sell sell

Posted by pitbull > 2017-06-21 10:20 | Report Abuse

Don't against the trend

Posted by Apollo Ang > 2017-06-21 10:23 | Report Abuse

where the RM 16 target price person gone to? hahahaha

Posted by popo92 > 2017-06-21 10:24 | Report Abuse

Hmmms after considering, I still add in more today.

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-21 10:25 | Report Abuse

paperplane top up a lot at 8++... now go hiding

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 10:26 | Report Abuse

Sold 20 lots earlier at 8.80 without dividend, now buying back

Posted by godofgamble > 2017-06-21 10:34 | Report Abuse

fundamental is still attractive.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 10:36 | Report Abuse

When panic, no one cares about anything, that's the human behaviour.

Posted by George888 > 2017-06-21 10:39 | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/saudis-see-oil-market-balance-despite-added-barrels-from-libya

Let us see what happens in Q4 :)

Posted by popo92 > 2017-06-21 10:39 | Report Abuse

My understanding is as long as crude oil does not fluctuate too much, either way oil prices go they also can manage to take profit

Posted by George888 > 2017-06-21 10:45 | Report Abuse

Petron key factors:
1) Cost efficiencies - Able to manage cost and be profitable in low crude oil price environment as seen in 2015 / 2016.

2) Sales volume - Market share has been increasing for both retail & commercial components.

3) Refinery Margins - Crack spread is climbing, better than Q1.

4) High margin products - New products are sold with much higher profit margin.

5) Inventory loss - Depends on its inventory levels and how fast oil price drops. Hopefully its not a huge loss.

In my view, the current crude oil environment and Petron current operating position seems much better compared to FY2016. Hence am expecting a much higher profits for FY2017. Limited downside, but huge upside potential.

Posted by Cornerstone > 2017-06-21 10:54 | Report Abuse

wahhh fell so much today..

Posted by little_snake > 2017-06-21 10:54 | Report Abuse

i wait rm5... kikiki

Posted by Cornerstone > 2017-06-21 10:54 | Report Abuse

will it break RM7?

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-06-21 11:05 | Report Abuse

From 8.93 to 7.28, 18.5% gone in less than a month, what a goreng stock.

Those bought at high need to gain 23% to just breakeven, that's why never chase high.

Now cheap already, dare to buy?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 11:05 | Report Abuse

Most would only buy when it moves above 8, that's common too.

Posted by Cornerstone > 2017-06-21 11:05 | Report Abuse

ok u lose first.. then we will see how it goes.. haha

Posted by Cornerstone > 2017-06-21 11:07 | Report Abuse

yes I think so ... haha

Posted by Cornerstone > 2017-06-21 11:07 | Report Abuse

top 3 loser today...

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-06-21 11:11 | Report Abuse

If one month ago someone said want to buy at 7.50, I think many will laugh.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 11:26 | Report Abuse

Adding double and lock up till end of the year, see if time can tell the price will go up above 8 or not. High chance won't go very far wrong.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 11:40 | Report Abuse

Hopefully cleansing is done thoroughly again this round, all short term players knocked out

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-21 11:56 | Report Abuse

dun play play... if oil px keep falling, c u at 6.50

Posted by vvv1 > 2017-06-21 11:59 | Report Abuse

time to top up! normal adjustment after dividen payout la...so many years buying shares already, panic what? it's just normal, happen on every counters after dividen/bonus shares/share split etc etc

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-06-21 12:51 | Report Abuse

So many experts !!

Ha ha ha....... good to see that.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 13:10 | Report Abuse

If in three years time can reach rm16. You think rm8 now still high? Don't be so short sighted. Here got many big institution funds. They know how great the management team are. They will buy on some fools action. And I am buying more now even top up some earlier at rm8. Buy with no worry. Why? It is reaching net cash soon.

Posted by zoizai > 2017-06-21 13:10 | Report Abuse

Good price to enter now

Posted by lloydlim > 2017-06-21 13:16 | Report Abuse

7.00 coming?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 13:18 | Report Abuse

I am waiting below 7. Long long time waiting Liao. Please lah, sell it fast during pucks a month

Posted by pitbull > 2017-06-21 13:27 | Report Abuse

截至截稿时间，布兰特原油期货跌0.22%至每桶45.92美元，而美国原油也下滑0.14%指每桶43.45美元。

Inter-Pacific证券油气分析员Brian Yeoh表示，尽管油价下跌趋势或持续一段时日，但却难以断定跌势会持续多久。

他指出，利比亚重启油井作业和美国的额外油井平台，这些因素都将导致石油供应过剩。

“如今的情况很糟。布兰特原油从1月6日的57美元，跌挫19.47%至今日最低位。难以推测油价何时会走高。" "投资者如今应远离油气股。”"

Posted by pitbull > 2017-06-21 13:29 | Report Abuse

I accumulate later..7.20 i buy

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 13:38 | Report Abuse

stock loss of PetronM due to say 2USD/barrel after tax is actually only 2.5 cents. From 50 USD to 43 USD, maximum EPS implication is :

= (2.5 cents/2USD) x (50 - 43)
= 8.7 cents
this is a one time event

assuming the current CCS margin of refinery is maintained, the coming qtr results will be at worst :
EPS 40 cents - 8.7 cents
= 31 cents

Retail segment is growing....
I see it can easily report 35Cents.

Market is too irrational....superb opportunity (if you have $$ cash).

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 13:40 | Report Abuse

Haha. I have money and I have brain. I am buying petronm instead of insas.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 14:07 | Report Abuse

@ probability, like your sharing which makes sense. Anyway, tqvm

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 14:20 | Report Abuse

what is the maximum level crude oil price drop could get into in a sustainable manner?

40 USD/brl


why?

For U.S. producers (shale oil), they no longer make profit when oil is below that level.

it can go momentarily below that level...but it cannot sustain.
So, at the worst you can discount further by another 'on time 4 cents' eps reduction which are recoverable.

so further stock loss risk is almost zero for future qtr results..

i could not see a better time to get in.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 14:32 | Report Abuse

i could not see a better time to get in.....because its almost impossible to see an opportunistic irrational behaviour due to such significant crude price drop ever again.

Even it drops way below...it will only take a few weeks to go back to 40USD/brl level.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 14:48 | Report Abuse

Relax probability. Don't underestimate the fools who is selling. I guess some fool will sell below 7 soon. Let's wait for that. Hehehehehe

Posted by TakeProfits > 2017-06-21 14:50 | Report Abuse

Wah petron drop. If got money buy and hold. Or else careful, don't catch a falling knife. Relax everybody.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2017-06-21 14:51 | Report Abuse

Maybe below 7, may take a look at it. People who bought at the lows are probably selling. Careful everyone.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 14:55 | Report Abuse

Yeah. Some fears emerge. When ppl in fear, I am in greedy. Oil price drop, ppl fear. So apply it.