Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-06-06 20:02 | Report Abuse

@MM,
I do wish some are foolish enough to believe you and dump their shares . I am waiting for bargain buy .
—————————
Current crack spread unsustainable @ wont last beyond Q2

So huge collapse coming..will be fast&furious b’coz low floating shares

Syndicate run few big sell orders - easily 20% drop daily / 50% drop 1week

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-06 20:45 | Report Abuse

EPS barely higher than Q1’2021 alrdy goreng soo high

Gdluck lo chase high..syndicate gladly sell to u

Later dont cry motherfather when get slaughtered

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-06 20:45 | Report Abuse

When crack spread widens, oil price will rise & narrow crack spread back to normal range

This is basic crack spread fundamental & historically proven..high crack spread definitely unsustainable

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-06 20:53 | Report Abuse

The crack spread spike up is because the fuel demand is more than the refinery capcity/capability to supply make worst by sanction on Russia crude and fuel products

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-06 21:30 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....people should be encourage to buy more of Petron but not hengyuan which have high risk of corp governance problem mah!

Posted by Sslee > 34 minutes ago | Report Abuse

The crack spread spike up is because the fuel demand is more than the refinery capcity/capability to supply make worst by sanction on Russia crude and fuel products

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-06 21:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-06 21:46 | Report Abuse

Once crack spreads normalise, share price immediately collapse 50% within few days b’coz low outstanding shares (only 200Mil vs gloves few Bil floating shares take longer to collapse)

Few big sell orders @ syndicate run totally waterfall share price

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-06 21:50 | Report Abuse

The future crack spread until Dec 2023 mths....is still above USD 10 mah!

Still Very healthy & profitable mah!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-06 21:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-06 22:07 | Report Abuse

Usually the unhedged position with an average Crack spread at USD 10 for Petron....can make at least profit of Rm 200m or eps of rm 0.74 pa mah!

This can easily support Petron current share price mah!

Do not forget the future crack spread of USD 10....is actually the lowest in december 2023....the current crack spread now is as high as USD 33 mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-06-06 22:11 | Report Abuse

I am a buyer and all in petronm

Win or break...
Wakakaka...
Lets see if my call or wrong..i betting on the right side...
:-)))))

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-06 22:15 | Report Abuse

Good choice loh!

Posted by supersinginvestor > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

I am a buyer and all in petronm

Win or break...
Wakakaka...
Lets see if my call or wrong..i betting on the right side...

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-06-06 22:30 | Report Abuse

Kikiki soo big BS

Immediate collapse to rm4 lo when crack spread normalise

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-07 08:33 | Report Abuse

never mind la.
hentam saja even if it goes to 0 then start over again.

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-06-07 08:34 | Report Abuse

Yeah huat ah
ALL IN

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-06-07 08:38 | Report Abuse

If this casino
I bet all on petronm
Ahahahaha

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-06-07 08:49 | Report Abuse

Dont be chickelittle
Have bals be a man la...

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-07 09:16 | Report Abuse

ya loh
go genting mah also one stack by one stack going down on table

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-06-07 09:20 | Report Abuse

gogo see u at rm8.00

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-06-07 09:21 | Report Abuse

Lai lai
Limit up

Posted by klee > 2022-06-07 09:21 | Report Abuse

Where is katak MM?come say good morning to uncles aunties.

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-06-07 09:21 | Report Abuse

Money.comes to those with big hairy bals.,

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-06-07 09:23 | Report Abuse

Heng ah huat ah ong ah
Lai lai $$$$

Posted by klee > 2022-06-07 09:23 | Report Abuse

broke recent high 7.61 ady,towards rm10 gogogo

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-07 09:24 | Report Abuse

can sailang now touched 7.61!

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-06-07 09:24 | Report Abuse

Limit up today can ah

Posted by aleroe > 2022-06-07 09:25 | Report Abuse

New 52w high

Posted by aleroe > 2022-06-07 09:25 | Report Abuse

This week can breach RM 9.00 perhaps

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 09:28 | Report Abuse

Moneymakers dah salah

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 09:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by mf > 2022-06-07 09:31 | Report Abuse

target rm 9.60

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-07 09:33 | Report Abuse

sorry, my sailang is to sell n buy on dip for new high!

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-07 09:35 | Report Abuse

MoneyMakers sek jeu lah

Posted by stanleyohh88 > 2022-06-07 10:03 | Report Abuse

big antenna if close red

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 10:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-07 10:24 | Report Abuse

Very steady accumulation mah!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-06-07 10:37 | Report Abuse

Remember this loh.....increasing share price & potential improving of profits will sucked in many innocent & naive investors to buy into a stock with corp governance problem like hengyuan ( U all should learn the lesson from Serba mah!}

If u like the prospect of refinery & strong crack spread and good oil price buying Petron is the answer, do not touch kon stock like hengyuan loh!

Posted by param1 > 2022-06-07 10:50 | Report Abuse

LOCK N LOAD!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-07 11:18 | Report Abuse

Overnight crack spread drop 15% to USD 28. This is because of Brent crude surge to USD 120

Posted by Karma4444 > 2022-06-07 11:33 | Report Abuse

Stable at 28 usd crack is good enuf

Posted by hengpetron > 2022-06-07 12:23 | Report Abuse

You see petronm price drop
Why bcou brian talk rubbish at hengyuan
forum

Posted by hengpetron > 2022-06-07 12:25 | Report Abuse

Today petronm could drop 0.80c
karma. Blame on brian and qqq333

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 12:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Michael Tan > 2022-06-07 12:52 | Report Abuse

Report: Shortage of Oil Refineries Haunts Africa as Fuel Prices Rocket

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-07 12:56 | Report Abuse

back to 7.73 new high as fuel shortage persist!

Posted by probability > 2022-06-07 13:05 | Report Abuse

The below is to help one understand, why i simply just see the difference in crack spread to derive the hedging loss between months
......................................


say in Feb 22' , the below was the pricing:

Crude: 100 $/brl
Avg refined oil: 108 $/brl
Crack spread: 8 $/brl (hedged, meaning they buy crude & sell prod forward - non physical)

in Mar 22' (when physical transaction take place):

Crude: 105 $/brl
Avg refined oil: 125 $/brl
Crack spread: 20 $/brl

Hedging loss/gain on Crude: 105 - 100 = 5 $/brl
Hedging loss/gain on Refined oil: 108 - 125 = - 17 $/brl
Net hedging loss / gain = - 17 + 5
= - 12 $/brl

The above value is the same as Crack Spread in Feb 22' - Crack spread in Mar 22' : 8 - 20
= - 12 $/brl

Both way you derive the same figure



Posted by probability > Jun 7, 2022 9:29 AM | Report Abuse X

example, say gross margin as per actual crack spread chart is as per below:

Dec 21': 7 $/brl

Jan: 8 $/brl,
Feb: 8 $/brl
Mar: 20 $/brl

Q1 gross profit: 3.5m brl/month x ( 8 + 8 + 20)
Q1 profit after hedging loss gain: 3.5 m brl/mth x ( 7 + 8 + 8)


Apr: 24 $/brl,
May: 24 $/brl
June: 30 $/brl

Q2 gross profit: 3.5m brl/month x ( 24 + 24 + 30)
Q2 profit after hedging loss gain: 3.5 m brl/mth x ( 20 + 24 + 24)

..........

why worry on hedging loss / gain? Its just the effects of lagging 1 month trailing 3 months profit

Posted by probability > 2022-06-07 13:09 | Report Abuse

They go Long on crude and Short on refined oil products such that if tail (margin shrunk) by following month they dont lose but if head (margin expanded) they will win on next hedging

Refinery is about ensuring there is profit every month. If they dont hedge - some months could be huge loss if the trend in oil price changes downwards

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-06-07 13:35 | Report Abuse

you thought market listen to how you want it to be mey? lmao
just happens it's moving in regression then you sound like a cock claiming credit for the dawn

Posted by probability > 2022-06-07 13:43 | Report Abuse

See detail derivations here:

https://www.mercatusenergy.com/blog/bid/72741/an-introduction-to-crack-spread-hedging

Extract from above:

Just as oil producers and consumers have the ability to hedge their exposure to volatile petroleum prices, refiners have the ability to hedge their exposure as well. In fact, one could argue that refiners face an even greater need to hedge than producers and consumers as their profit margins are based on the price of not one commodity, but at least two and often several: the price of their input (crude oil) as well as their outputs (bunker fuel, heating oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, gasoil, jet fuel, etc.).

In order to mitigate their exposure to crack spread price volatility, many refiners hedge the crack spread by purchasing crude oil futures or swaps and simultaneously selling refined products futures or swaps as the results allows the refiner to lock-in or fix the refining margin.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-06-07 13:44 | Report Abuse

Alot ppl listen to money makers…just look at ays and hiapteck