Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

M+ Online Market Wrap - 20Jun22

FBM KLCI: 1,441.24 pts (-15.50pts, -1.06%)
The FBM KLCI (-1.06%) slipped below its immediate support level at 1,450 as the selloff worsen, in tandem with the mixed sentiment across Wall Street and regional stock exchanges as well as investors might be pricing in recession concerns amid heightened inflationary pressure environment. Market breadth remained negative as the decliners outplayed the advancers by 747-to-200 stocks. On the broader market, all the 13 major sectorial indices finished lower with the energy sector (-3.93%) suffered the most, led by YINSON (-6.0 sen), PETRONM (-43.0 sen), and HENGYUAN (-41.0 sen) amid declining crude oil prices, which is currently trading below the significant USD120 zone.

Top 3 Active stocks:
SFPTECH (0251): RM0.67 (+37.0 sen)
DNEX (4456): RM0.765 (-4.5 sen)
CYPARK (5184): RM0.37 (+3.0 sen)

Volume: 2.62 bn (100-day avg vol: 3.02 bn)
Value: RM1.69 bn (100-day avg val: RM2.44 bn)
Market Breadth: ⬆️200 ⬇️747
Crude palm oil: RM5,000 (-RM454)
Dow Futures: 29,981 pts (+112 pts)

Source: Bloomberg, M+ Online

Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Jerichomy
Spot on and otb is one of syndicate

Mdompeilee
Looks like sindikets may hv also taken a bath. Vol shot up to over 2 mil when price rose from $4.15 in late Apr. Suspect they were still buying on that 12 mil vol day when it rocket from $5.24 to $5.76. After that try to distribute from $6.50 to $7.70 but then a failed support operation from $6-$6.70 in late May to lure more blur sotongs in...Their avg cost may be as high as $5 or more so the last few days prob bleed like he!!...serves them RIGHT!
46 seconds ago
0 seconds ago

Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Jerichomy
Aiyoo otb, current share price movement and TAis not tally with your information below

OTB
Posted by dompeilee > 47 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Crack spread higher than 2017 peak when this fella went as high as $19.20. So looks like it won't last according to the shr price...but manipulation clearly contributed to the exaggerated volatility.
--------------------
In 2017, the crack spread is USD10.34, the PAT of Hengyuan is 909 million, EPS=3.03. The highest share price is 19.20.
The crack spread in FY2022 will be projected at least > USD20.00.
Projected PAT > RM 1 billion, projected EPS > 3.30
I talk with facts and figures.
I believe the FY2022 result will be better than FY2017.
What is the share price of Hengyuan in 2022 ?
Let Mr Market tells you.
Thank you.
56 minutes ag
1 minute ago

Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

If heng yuan rm3, petron rm4 haha

Jerichomy
Money makers let make heng yuan become rm3 like hiap teck become 30 cents
8 minutes ago

Posted by investor2021trading > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

PetDag, PetGas, Hengyuan n Petronm r beneficiaries of current Petroleum Crisis.

have it ever crossed ur mind that d sharp price hike of refinery products like diesel n gasoline r a major reasons causing inflation now in US, Europe n others non oil producing countries in Asia Pacific Regions? d spikes in crack spread price n oil refineries inability to meet its demand r causing an unprecedented global fuel crisis that will prolonged n not solved overnight!

Posted by NorAfan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Walaupun harga refinery crack spread begitu mantap tapi malaysia punya downstream oil company bertindak balas sebaliknya...speechless

Posted by Johnzhang > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Some can just talk and talk hoping the sky come down ! Smart one will just need to do what is right quietly.

Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Keep lar got chance to become rm14 haha

dompeilee
SOLD half my balance @ 5.61 after securing the dividend & selling 4 rounds above $6 & 3 rounds above $7 =)
37 minutes ago

Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Yeah IDSS and rebound going in hand in hand together haha

Posted by Plato99 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Any contra player still around?

Bought 5.28. Sold 5.81. TQ for the 10 % contra gain.

Posted by subwayzzz > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

nice move after div

Posted by investor2021trading > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

boom pipi up 6%!

Posted by NorAfan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Kita menjangka Q2 results akan melebihi Q1.

Posted by KingKoil > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

huat chaiiii

Hahaha..

Posted by investor2021trading > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

is it gud new? najib says d price of RON95 can b raised by 10 to 20 sen n export duty on palm oil increased to help d lower income group!

Posted by supersinginvestor > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Dont try bet against the fed and tape...

Posted by supersinginvestor > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

The fed will burn u kaw kaw...

Posted by RWG > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

petronm next year will give 40sen dividen

Posted by RWG > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

biden press oil price 9696

Posted by DevKrishna > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

What does this mean?

Posted by mikeazk > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Malaysia not sanction against Russia so Petron can buy Russia crude oil at discount since the West boycott russia. Be prepared for bigger profit !

Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

sharemarket21
Consolidating sign as expected. Less than 1M volume new low and Bursa recorded the lowest by far 1.5B. Any big incremental out of no where warrants sell off. The 1RM trading range. Bearish market means dog eats human world.
1 hour ago

Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Jerichomy
You also pandai looo….ask me to short klci instead of playing heng yuan rebound or blar blah…this waiting game not worth it…i will come bek to refiners in august haha
1 minute ago

Posted by Jerichomy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Jerichomy

MoneyMakers
Very2 low volume

Even syndicate (stuck high) not buying at this range..just queue defend from further drop
45 seconds ago

MoneyMakers
Now either [1] go up & collapse (syndicate breakeven + exit) or [2] go down & collapse (syndicate cutloss)

Either way collapse imminent
11 seconds ago
3 minutes ago

Posted by Johnzhang > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://newswav.com/A2206_5QFWSb?s=A_shy92o9

Posted by RWG > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

hope petron can give us RM1.00 dividen every year

Posted by investor2021trading > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

KUCHING, June 23 — Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department (Economy) Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed today said the federal government may have to come up with RM30 billion this year for fuel subsidies alone, over 170 per cent higher than the RM11 billion for 2021.

Guess how much Petronm will get from d RM30billion subsidy every quarter?

Posted by NorAfan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Masih janka Q2 results akan lebih baik daripada Q1. Tunggu saja the Q2 result keluar

Posted by Sslee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Just to help you to see what will be Q2 2022 NPAT.

In term of profitability vis-a vis crack spread :
Petron's NPAT :
Q12022 - RM106.4 mil ,
2021 - RM238.5 mil ,
2020 - (13.3 mil)
Avg crack spread :
Q12022 - about USD14 ,
2021 -about USD7.78 ,
2020 -aboutUSD1.44

The month end crack spread figures are as below (in the order Jan to Dec) :
FY2020: 5.99, 4.91, (5.22), (3.35), (0.91), 2.36, (1.00) , 1.77, 4.54, 2.82, 1.51, 3.92 (Avg 1.44)
FY2021: 3.51, 6.39, 7.05, 7.34, 5.82, 7.08, 9.71, 7.56, 7.61, 12.83, 7.28, 11.21 (Avg 7.78)
FY2022: 12.42, 13.33, 14.85, 21.01, 26.69. (YTD may avg 17.67)

Posted by Johnzhang > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

In 2017 when Petron made $1.50/share , avg crack spread for that year was 10.34 only .

Posted by Sslee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

By the way Petronm Q1 2022 also make a loss on derivatives of RM 230 million. This must be from their commodities swap (forward sale contract) of their products which suddenly surge up due to sudden surge of crude oil price.

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

As long as no inventory loss like Hengyuan.

Hedging loss is normal

Posted by Sslee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

With crack spread of USD 25+ Petronm should make RM 1.50 per share per quarter.

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I think EPS Rm1.50 or RM2.00 per share in coming Q is unlikely to bring share prices to break new high, especially after Glove Saga.

Most oredi learned the painful lesson n realised that super high ASP/Crack Spread etc are not sustainable.

So Sifu's fav pricing method of EPS (at super high profit) X 4 Q X PE 10 or 20= RM????? will not happen again here.

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

While many of u guys busy calculating yr swee swee projected Q profits EPS or PE, none of u have ever address on the sustainabilty of high ASP/ Crack Spread etc etc

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

The latest is CPO. Price suddenly plunged by RM2000pmt+ or 30%+ fm RM6000pmt+ two weeks ago

How to explain so? it takes 5 to 6 years for palm trees to grow n produce FFB.....

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Having said so, buying at current prices (after abt 30% plunge fm its peak of RM7.00+ few weeks ago) certainly stands a higher chance of winning should there is a rebound after the bombastic Q2 result in Aug then.

If that doesnt happen, then all will go to Holland together.

Dont worry, in stock mkt if u dont make money u lose money only. Not the end of the world.

Posted by Sslee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

You can build glove factory in 6 months that produce billions pcs of groves per year but it take 5 years and more to put up a refinery.

The current shortage of refinery capacity is due to under investment, close down of old unprofotable refineries, sanction on Russia oil and fuel products and China fuel export quota.

The recent spike in crack spread is cause by surge of demand post covid. The crack spread will start to come down only if demand start to come down.

As of palm oil the price is still very good about RM 5000. The sudden drop is caused by Indonesia policy flip flop that cause stock bulid up that need clearance sales to clear the stock ASAP. The world shortage of edible oil is still presist and when Indonesia stock reduce the palm oil price will move up again unless recession is coming and causing demand destruction.

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Dont worry CPO is still very good even at RM3K+ or RM4K+

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Crack spread is still very good even at Rm10+

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

No doubt on that

Posted by Sslee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

CPO price fall suddenly due to suden stock imbalance due to Indonesia flip flop policy and has nothing to do with supply and demand imbalance.

Gloves raise and fall sharply is due to supply and demand imbalance.
When demand sudden surge due to covid and supply cannot cope up then price increase many folds

But when every Tom and Jerry also put up gloves factories produce billion and billions of gloves then the sudden huge supply increase far excess the demand grow causing the inevitable price collapse

Posted by probability > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

charlest sifu not comparing apple to apple liao...sslee briefing is spot on

crack spread had been going up till to date

what basis is now at RM 4 plus cheap and not cheap at RM 7?

while share price was dropping crack spread rose by another 10 USD/brl already

market got disconnected with crack spread coz spooked by derivatives loss

basically it does not believe there is a connection till its proven

(Malaysian investors are mainly 'chicken' investors now looks like where cheap is measured by their price compared to recent high...LOL!)

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Or u wanna prove u r not chicken but a hero to buy high at RM7+?

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

In stock mkt, making money is everything....being chicken or hero aint matter

Posted by probability > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

simple logic la bongok...if crack spread now at 1 USD/brl you give HY at RM also i wont buy...


when u say cheap or expensive must got basis la...plug from sky argument me?

anyway...may as you are always interested to talk about the people than the share, you sold HY last week is it? LOL!

Posted by CharlesT > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I hv seen many calculation n projection of u in the past...HY 1.0, Lionind aka Steel 1.0, Glove n now this...

N i hv seen yr twist in Serbak so i know yr true face....lol

Posted by probability > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

walao..got true face ka? Si long in i3 with me still cant figure out me ah...aiyoyo...wonder what u actually trust..surely not your kids too

you make money or dont i dont give a damn...in fact i am happy if you are richer so that at least can effect the market...

for sure, if i start arguing with you..i will win but no interest actually..seriously its not motivating at this price...