Posted by pang72 > 2017-05-12 16:53 | Report Abuse

Everybody enjoy the profits for the week...
Me t week continue to RM10.00

Posted by pang72 > 2017-05-12 16:56 | Report Abuse

Superstrong, you are confuse?
I am more confuse of you...
Luckily , every toe you ask me carefully , I buy more

Posted by startinvesting2017 > 2017-05-12 17:06 | Report Abuse

Wheres all his post? ><

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-05-12 17:06 | Report Abuse

Anyone can advice me on my calculation below?
Last year 1st quarter (PMRMB + PFISB + POMSB)s' net income = 131m / 3.35 = 39.1m.
Then, last year 1st quater PMRMB's net income = 16.6m,
which means PMRMB contributes 16.6 / 39.1 = 42.46% of the total net income.
Subsequently, coming quarter PMRMB's net income should be 131m x 42.46% = 55.63m,
which translated to eps of 55.63m / 270m (number of shares) = 20.60 cents?

Posted by probability > 2017-05-12 17:10 | Report Abuse

Alex...when earnings has risen by 100% you need to divide the current earnings by 2 to obtain the previous earnings. So when earnings has risen by 335% , you need to divide by 4.35 on 130 million to obtain the 1st quarter 2016 composite earnings.

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-05-12 17:18 | Report Abuse

probability, thanks for pointing out the mistake, then the work out eps should increase to 26.74 cents. However, I think we should divide the peso by 4.35 before converting to RM since the exchange rate is different at that point of time. Anyway, this is just a rough estimation.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-12 17:19 | Report Abuse

Alex 4.35 is not the exchange rate, it is = 335% + 100% = 435%

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-05-12 17:21 | Report Abuse

@ Alex, personally I think your assumption is not correct, as PFSB & POMSB business model are relatively stable (as their business nature is petrol retail) hence using % to divide will not be that accurate.

For 2016 1st Qtr PFSB & POMSB net profit is around $22+ mils, let say we assume them get 10% growth hence their estimate 2017 1st Q net profit will be around $25 mils. After consider that, Petronm estimate profit will be $105 mils

Just my 2 cents, I might be wrong

Posted by probability > 2017-05-12 17:22 | Report Abuse

use a variable 'x' for 'PFISB + POMSB' as the earnings in 1st qtr 2016 for the non listed Malaysian contributor.

'x + PMRMB 1st qtr 2016' = 130Mliion / 4.35

from above, you will derive 'x' to be 13.3 Million as the PMRMB 1st qtr 2016 earnings was 16.6 Million.

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-05-12 17:26 | Report Abuse

Sorry, I means divide the net income in term of peso (1.5 billions) by 4.35 = 344.83m peso, before converting to last year 1st quarter net income 344.83m peso / 11.88 (exchange rate on 31-3-2016) = RM 29m
Then, last year 1st quater PMRMB's net income = 16.6m,
which means PMRMB contributes 16.6 / 29 = 57.24% of the total net income.
Subsequently, coming quarter PMRMB's net income should be 131m x 57.24% = 74.99m,
which translated to eps of 74.99m / 270m (number of shares) = 27.77 cents?

Posted by probability > 2017-05-12 17:26 | Report Abuse

now if x = 13.3 Million, meaning 'PFISB + POMSB' earnings in 1st qtr 2016 is 13.3 Million.....what do you think their earnings could have been in 1st qtr 2017?

sumato88 assumed it (x) had increased by 10%.

You can use 100% if you want....but still you will get 1st qtr 2017 earnings of PMRMB to be above 100 Million ringgit minimum.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-12 17:28 | Report Abuse

please go through carefully first what i have written above and revert if you still could not understand.

Posted by pang72 > 2017-05-12 17:34 | Report Abuse

Geng!! You all are the best

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-05-12 17:35 | Report Abuse

逍遥子 & probability, you are right, I might overstate PFISB & POMSB s' net income by assuming their earning also ballooned by 335%.
But, my estimation is based on worst circumstances & very likely actual eps will be above my eps of 27.77 cents~

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-05-12 17:36 | Report Abuse

shall be 100mil per quarter minimum moving forward

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-05-12 17:42 | Report Abuse

PFISB & POMSB business are petrol retail, their profit will not have a sudden surge unless they increase their petrol stations, hence 10% yearly already very good.

Whereas Petronm earning will be much volatile due to refinery margin, forex rate & oil price, hence with the healthy refinery margin + strong oil price (the average price stated on Petron Corp financial report as USD53) + stable exchange rate. Petronm is expected to have a decent earning

Posted by win_win > 2017-05-12 17:43 | Report Abuse

Guys, read carefully the report release by Petron Corp. They are reporting a total of 5.56bil of profit for 2017 Q1.

Which 1.5bil peso is the profit purely from Petron Malaysia. And this 1.5bil peso profit from Petron Malaysia 1Q2017 compare to 1Q2016 has a 335% of profit gain.

You can simply find Petron Malaysia profit for 1Q2016, it was declared, and is RM16.6mil.

1.5bil peso = RM130mil

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-05-12 17:46 | Report Abuse

PetronM meaning only listed PetronM?

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2017-05-12 17:51 | Report Abuse

which mean the profit 16million x 2 = 32 million? why so less profit

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2017-05-12 17:52 | Report Abuse

no wonder it hit 8.95 and then u-turn back..

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-05-12 17:57 | Report Abuse

Ha ha ha.......

Funny !!

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-05-12 18:08 | Report Abuse

It's record profit for Petron corp , that istaelf should justify it's going to be Petron my without considering the percentage of segment contribution...

Posted by zexon > 2017-05-12 18:13 | Report Abuse

Haha.Petron is in danger now. Monday limit down

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-05-12 18:16 | Report Abuse

130 million is 335% up from 1st 2016 ... the contribution by 100% fully owned Petron Corp in 1Q2016 is roughly 13 million ... even if you double it it's 26 million ... so current contribution of 130 mil - 26 million = 104 million .. EPS 104/ 270 = 0.385 cents and this is gen worse case scenarios.....

My take it's going to be above 40 cents surely ..

Posted by probability > 2017-05-12 18:18 | Report Abuse

exactly

Posted by Equityengineer > May 12, 2017 06:16 PM | Report Abuse

130 million is 335% up from 1st 2016 ... the contribution by 100% fully owned Petron Corp in 1Q2016 is roughly 13 million ... even if you double it it's 26 million ... so current contribution of 130 mil - 26 million = 104 million .. EPS 104/ 270 = 0.385 cents and this is gen worse case scenarios.....

My take it's going to be above 40 cents surely ..

Posted by possible88 > 2017-05-12 20:13 | Report Abuse

So Monday will see a down trend? Pengsan liao.. bought in CC at 0.290

Posted by suregain > 2017-05-12 20:25 | Report Abuse

I dun understand leh.. Kejap said eps 49sen kejap said overestimate profit??? Wat d hell is tis?? Dun play play la

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-05-12 20:29 | Report Abuse

I think today just a profit taking by punters... let's see next week .. will hold till qr

Posted by startinvesting2017 > 2017-05-12 20:31 | Report Abuse

Lol come on guys, learn to look at the accountings as well ;)

Posted by skyea > 2017-05-12 20:46 | Report Abuse

guys, ive seen the calculations and boy are they complicated, and i think very vulnerable to errors. let me simplify this. Last qtr, Petdag earnings growth was very muted compared to Hengyuan. Petdag is a pure retailer and Hengyuan is a pure refiner. so it is very clear who the winner is in this cyclical recovery, i.e. YOU'd wanna be on the refinery side.

hence petronm which owns both refinery and retail, is what you should want right now.

Lastly, petroncorp philipines which is also a refiner and retailers, has posted record profits. which is the exact business profile of petronm, so record quarter, record shareprice. the price now is justified what. why everyone worry it touch or go below 7 again?

the numbers are way too complicated. and might make one make a mistake in trading

Posted by Blacksails > 2017-05-12 21:07 | Report Abuse

Dont guess work here, very amateurish and misleading. Better leave it to the QR factsheet. Facts!

Posted by suregain > 2017-05-12 21:29 | Report Abuse

Im scare the result is below expectation.. N share px wil gap down when open

Posted by 7skies > 2017-05-12 22:33 | Report Abuse

didnt sumato88 showed the net profit computations on 10.5.17??

Posted by stockraider > 2017-05-12 22:37 | Report Abuse

U all worry for nothing loh.....!!
Petron EPS for the whole year will exceed Rm 1.00 whether 1st Qtr Eps exceed Rm 0.25 or rm 0.40 immaterial loh....!!
It surely more than rm 1.00 in 1 yr....the qtr result are short term the annual result is more reliable loh...!!

Posted by superstrong > 2017-05-12 23:20 | Report Abuse

So how??

Posted by HaoRan > 2017-05-12 23:27 | Report Abuse

Keep larh lol

Posted by superstrong > 2017-05-12 23:32 | Report Abuse

Go pub and drink beer

Posted by superstrong > 2017-05-12 23:33 | Report Abuse

Time to celebrate , all can't answer the question correctly

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-05-12 23:39 | Report Abuse

Answered already wat... its which to believe only

Posted by suregain > 2017-05-12 23:45 | Report Abuse

@equityengineer, u mean the eps for petronm in q1 2017 at least 40sen?

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-05-13 00:19 | Report Abuse

@@

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-13 00:26 | Report Abuse

this kind of thing normally have a reversion to the mean...I say 20 sen EPS this Q.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-05-13 00:52 | Report Abuse

Haha...stockraider bro is the only guy have sense here. 0.40x4, RM1.60eps.
Using pe10 is rm16. Not joking

Posted by nocindycat > 2017-05-13 02:43 | Report Abuse

shooting star, better run.. gonna gap down hard when results is out, everybody punting results to be good

Posted by zoizai > 2017-05-13 07:47 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sumato88/122720.jsp

Posted by suregain > 2017-05-13 07:54 | Report Abuse

@nocindycat. It is not punting.. It is d figure given by petron corp during press conference.. If sumitomo calculation is corect, then petronm should hv eps around 42sen in q1 2017..

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-05-13 08:33 | Report Abuse

Auto. Easy calculation. Last quarter also 0.40 Liao. With now weekly pricing of petrol, they will even improve tremendous. Look at others, shell result superb, same to petdag. What makes u think perform can't? It is proven some more.

Posted by AllWin > 2017-05-13 10:40 | Report Abuse

Goodstock, those that seldom post not necessarily left. In fact, those likely are long term investors.

Posted by zoizai > 2017-05-13 11:45 | Report Abuse

Petronm was one of my pick for 2017 stock

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/70742.jsp

Posted by nocindycat > 2017-05-13 12:19 | Report Abuse

run, over cook!