Posted by 1901 > 2020-08-21 23:38 | Report Abuse

bank analyst work with their UT arm ma. Read chart, better picture than analyst report

Posted by Erudite > 2020-08-22 20:23 | Report Abuse

TP FV RM9.43 by Tradeview

http://www.tradeview.my/2020/08/tradeview-2020-long-term-value-pick-4.html

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-08-22 21:43 | Report Abuse

Good good

Posted by James Ng > 2020-08-23 11:38 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2020-08-23-story-h1512482924.jsp
[转贴] [MEGA FIRST CORP BHD：随着六月的雨季来临，Don Sahong发电厂的能源利用率预计将在2020年下半年提高到90％以上，而1H2020年为78.7％] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by warrantKing > 2020-08-23 15:45 | Report Abuse

Management is confident that the hydroplant can get return in 4 years.
Afterward this is generate strong cash flow (60sens) annually

Posted by StockLORD > 2020-08-23 20:31 | Report Abuse

in two years....debt should be fully paid off. it will just be cash cow thereafter. next QTR onwards....result will just be greener than before. Accumulate la....Good steady company.

Posted by Erudite > 2020-08-23 22:31 | Report Abuse

Agreed man!

Posted by Kok Heng > 2020-08-24 08:17 | Report Abuse

Gogogo, today RM8!!

Posted by pjseow > 2020-08-24 08:25 | Report Abuse

MFCB can generate more than rm 400 million FCF per year. With a total debt of rm 690 million, technically MFCB can pay off all its debt in the next 2 to 3 years. MFCB can decide not to pay off the debt so soon.and keep the cash to pay some dividend . It can still.a be a nett cash company in 2 to 3 years time .

Posted by StockLORD > 2020-08-24 09:18 | Report Abuse

true....but my bet it would be more mega projects in the pipeline. There is a reason why the company has the name MEGA....always after mega projects in mind. Strong management with true leader that has proven record after record of demonstrating their leadership skill and results! Big KUDOS to the management team!

Posted by kai8994 > 2020-08-24 16:17 | Report Abuse

Both fundamental and chart also look great, breakout from the cup and handle formation :D

Posted by LoneWolf88 > 2020-08-24 23:31 | Report Abuse

JUST HOOT IT!

Posted by Lychien20 > 2020-08-25 10:02 | Report Abuse

shifted to MFCB EPS approx 19 cents. next QR EPS more than 20 cents

Posted by StockLORD > 2020-08-25 10:15 | Report Abuse

this share...just close eyes and BUY! keep for few years or even the next two quarters till year end....guaranteed better than bank FD la.

Posted by Lychien20 > 2020-08-25 13:18 | Report Abuse

StockLORD, later more and more crowded here. Latest QR report inside gt a lot of GEMS

Posted by chashao > 2020-08-25 14:28 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhJ5Ad8f-70&t=10s

Posted by Lychien20 > 2020-08-25 15:49 | Report Abuse

vroom........

Posted by StockLORD > 2020-08-25 17:13 | Report Abuse

even the blind can feel this stock with his fingers.....that it is a rock solid company.

Posted by Hahaqwe > 2020-08-25 20:19 | Report Abuse

Super duper clear visibility of better PAT for next quarter, what are you waiting for? If not foreign fund keep dispose, MFCB should be at RM8 right now!

Posted by Lychien20 > 2020-08-25 20:32 | Report Abuse

Hoot 9 Ee

Posted by LoneWolf88 > 2020-08-25 20:50 | Report Abuse

JUST HOOT IT!

Posted by probability > 2020-08-26 17:04 | Report Abuse

with such low interest rate, PE can even be 20 i suppose..

guess you are very confident on achieving 70 cents next year pjseow?
thinking of adding more

Posted by pjseow > Aug 20, 2020 12:39 PM | Report Abuse

Investor77, analysts are projecting very high earnings for both supermx and topglove for FY 2021. The PE range between 10 to 15 of 2021 earnings. Their earnings are few x of FY 2020 earnings. Thats is reasons why you see high tgt prices. I think.PE of 15 is a reasonable number for mfcb. I estimated mfcb earning to be about 65 to 70 sen this year and between 70 to 75 s next year

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-08-26 17:07 | Report Abuse

who the fucker keep pressing

Posted by pjseow > 2020-08-26 19:01 | Report Abuse

Probability, I am glad you still.keep mfcb . I and my.family members added mfcb from 6.40 to 7.04..My son use DCF and valued the power division at about 8.50 using discount rate of 7 %
instead of the usual 10% since the interest rates have been.coming down quite a lot. Other businesses are.valued using PE . Total value is about 10.50 to 11.00 .

Posted by probability > 2020-08-26 20:20 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the info pjseow, PE 15 does give a yield of about 7% your son had used on the DCF.

Referring to the below extract from qtr report, when availability factor increase by 90% from 78%, the impact on earnings can be more than proportional i suppose?

Planning to hold long unless it shoots up very high. This kinda margin and duration no business can provide.

.................



Power Division (Don Sahong Project)
....................................

Don Sahong achieved full commercial operation on 7 January 2020 following successful testing of and synchronization with EDL’s new 500 KV by-pass transmission line to Cambodia.

Reported power revenue of RM233.7 million for the 6-month period this year represented energy billing to EDL during the period on a take-or-pay basis, Despite the seasonal dry season in January-May, the period recorded an average energy availability factor of 78.7%, slightly ahead of management expectations.

With the onset of wetter weather in June, the average energy availability factor is forecast to exceed 90% in the second half of the year.

Posted by pjseow > 2020-08-26 21:18 | Report Abuse

You are right, probability. If we use the estimate of 90% utilization for second half, the revenue from DS is about 267 million. Using a profit margin of 71%, second half profit is about 190 million. Assuming the resource and packaging divisions contribute 10 millions, total profits for the year will be about 338 millions. This will translate into 68 s EPS for the.whole year .

Posted by probability > 2020-08-26 21:36 | Report Abuse

pjseow, you mean EPS of 78 cents right?


Posted by pjseow > Aug 26, 2020 9:18 PM | Report Abuse

You are right, probability. If we use the estimate of 90% utilization for second half, the revenue from DS is about 267 million. Using a profit margin of 71%, second half profit is about 190 million. Assuming the resource and packaging divisions contribute 10 millions, total profits for the year will be about 338 millions. This will translate into 68 s EPS for the.whole year .

Posted by probability > 2020-08-26 21:42 | Report Abuse

Taking out the non-controlling interest, about 72 cents i guess?

Posted by Lychien20 > 2020-08-26 22:37 | Report Abuse

thanks pjseow sifu and probability sifu. this company gt short, medium n long term project all gt

Posted by pjseow > 2020-08-26 22:45 | Report Abuse

probability, I mean 68s . 338 million divide by latest number of shares of 494 million

Posted by probability > 2020-08-27 00:37 | Report Abuse

The total number of share options granted to the Group’s employees and directors which remained unexercised as at 30 June 2020 was 18,181,409 (31.12.2019:22,888,411). Of the total 475,994,642 (31.12.2019: 438,342,263) issued ordinary shares as at 30 June 2020, 20,497,300 (31.12.2019: 20,497,300) ordinary shares were held as treasury shares by the Company. The number of outstanding ordinary shares in issue as at 30 June 2020 was therefore 455,497,342 (31.12.2019: 417,844,963).

............

the above is the extract from qtr report.

guess you add the outstanding shares of 455.5m with unexercised option of 18m and the treasury shares of 20.5m to obtain 494m shares?

Posted by steven832 > 2020-08-27 09:51 | Report Abuse

All warrant and ESOS already exercised.... share cap net of treasury is 473 million shares

Posted by probability > 2020-08-27 10:04 | Report Abuse

thanks steven832

Posted by pjseow > 2020-08-27 11:12 | Report Abuse

probability, I took the number from klse screener

Posted by probability > 2020-08-27 11:50 | Report Abuse

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070715/what-pricetoearnings-ratio-average-utilities-sector.asp

What Is the Average Price-to-Earnings Ratio in the Utilities Sector?

Feb 24, 2020

For 2019, the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the utilities sector was approximately 28.23. This number applies to water, electricity, and gas utilities, as well as any ancillary companies that independently produce or distribute power. Looking forward to the remainder of 2020, analysts project a 39.18 P/E ratio, which is well above the 23.35 market-wide P/E ratio estimates.

.........

even half of that would do...he he

Posted by Joe Ng > 2020-08-27 11:51 | Report Abuse

why fidelity is disposing shares when the price just breakout?

Posted by probability > 2020-08-27 12:02 | Report Abuse

may be need some money for coming election in US...may be expect US market crash if trump loses...can be many reasons

Posted by Joe Ng > Aug 27, 2020 11:51 AM | Report Abuse

why fidelity is disposing shares when the price just breakout?

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-08-27 12:02 | Report Abuse

c u at 8

Posted by probability > 2020-08-27 14:25 | Report Abuse

when i see Maybank's results, it makes me realize how a precious gem MFCB is

Posted by VegeBird > 2020-08-27 14:58 | Report Abuse

FA ady explained by so many sifu, about TA, today is the breakout of prior highest price, 1st station will be RM8. Long run up to next QR, with the expectable incoming eps with at least maintained at 18 to 20. RM10 is only matter of time, I have in the boat with you guys, lets ride to the peak! happy trading to all!

Posted by Hahaqwe > 2020-08-27 20:30 | Report Abuse

Add on another 50lots today, lets make it

Posted by probability > 2020-08-27 21:15 | Report Abuse

Further OPR cut of 25bps or 50bps in near term likely — AmBank chief

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/further-opr-cut-25bps-or-50bps-near-term-likely-%E2%80%94-ambank-chief

.........

where can you park money, if not for stock like MFCB

wonder, if MFCB loan interest rate has the potential to come down..

pjseow, any idea how their loan interest rate works - is that fixed?

Posted by probability > 2020-08-27 21:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mega-first-gets-us150m-loan-don-sahong-hydropower-project

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 10): Mega First Corp Bhd secured a US$150 million (RM634.88 million) loan to part-finance the construction of the Don Sahong hydropower project in Laos.

Mega First told Bursa Malaysia today its wholly-owned subsidiary Mega First Investments (L) Ltd had yesterday entered into facility agreements with various financial institutions for the "club deal facilities".

The US$150 million loan comprises conventional term-loan facilities of US$85 million and an Islamic financing scheme of up to US$65 million, read the filing.

According to the company, the conventional facilities' interest rate and Islamic financing scheme's profit rate are based on a "variable rate that is linked to the financial institution's cost of funds. Based on today's cost of funds, the weighted average interest is 4.51%".

...

so it means it will be adjusted?

Posted by pjseow > 2020-08-27 21:38 | Report Abuse

probability. yes .the interest rate for its loan.is not fixed. In fact, in.2019 Q4, there was a.big interest saving . I expect further interest saving.this year with the low interest environment .

Posted by probability > 2020-08-27 21:44 | Report Abuse

ok thanks for the confirmation pjseow

Posted by Lychien20 > 2020-08-28 06:59 | Report Abuse

MFCB gt probability sifu and pjseow sifu perform details analysis then can invest and no need to worry liee

Posted by Lychien20 > 2020-08-28 07:00 | Report Abuse

liew

Posted by Togetherweearn > 2020-08-28 16:32 | Report Abuse

Just curious I am pretty new to share market, what are the differences between this company than the rest of utility players? Company like YTL Power and Malakoff ? Share price is so big different. Market cap is also smaller for MFCB.

Posted by terence775 > 2020-08-28 17:26 | Report Abuse

Management, projects, scope of work, business model for their projects, and so on.

Posted by terence775 > 2020-08-28 17:27 | Report Abuse

Among the 3 you mentioned, MFCB is the smallest company. Don't be misled by the share price being so high.
However, among the 3, MFCB has shown the most prudent management and capability to execute works to generate strong income sources.