Analysts like to mention the early/ late CNY effects. However, it’s hard to find the evidence from the historical revenue data.
For example, the CNY of 2017, 18 and 19 fell on 28Jan (early), 16Feb (late), 5Feb (normal). The Q1 as a percentage of full year revenue was 21% (low), 21% (low) and 23% (low).
2023 CNY fell on 22-January (early), but 1Q23 revenue as a percentage of FY2023 was 28% (high).
Of course, this maybe explained by the weak consumer sentiments in the subsequent quarters of 2023. Maybe the revenue distribution was also skewed by price hikes (unfortunately I don’t have volume data to work out the effects).
My point is the data doesn’t seem to show much of a correlation.
If Heineken shift factory to Vietnam, and close down all Malaysia brewery, how much will this share worth? will it drop 90% to RM 2? since that's the only asset they have in Malaysia.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
alibiii
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Posted by alibiii > 1 month ago | Report Abuse
Don't forget this year CNY is on February so festive purchase will roll over to Q1 24 from Q4 23.