Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-04-21 16:11 | Report Abuse

Yup,saw the Q today quite interesting,look like someone come in to play liao.

Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-04-21 16:15 | Report Abuse

its might at least keep its support level @ 0.32 before next movement.

Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-04-28 09:33 | Report Abuse

is it journey start for Melewar?

Posted by anson938 > 2017-04-28 14:47 | Report Abuse

Be ready on Melewar.......

Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-04-28 15:25 | Report Abuse

0.33

Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-04-28 15:29 | Report Abuse

Highest price for Melewar 0.335

Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-05-03 09:01 | Report Abuse

Any good news?toward 0.435!

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-03 10:59 | Report Abuse

[转贴] 钢铁第6报告之长钢五月炎阳天! - Leo Ting
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 3 May 2017, 10:00 AM

Tuesday, 2 May 2017





本来打算写建筑业研究第6篇，
但是钢铁正热，所以来个提油救火。

目前钢铁股开始了新一轮的狂飙，
其实还在反映2017年第一季度的业绩，
虽然目前只开了SSTEEL一家的业绩。
但是也足够知道其他钢铁业的成绩了。















这篇文章并不是关注第一季度的业绩，
而是看长钢的总体趋势。
先看中国的长钢螺纹钢20mm,
从2016年的7月人民币2374，
到2016年的12月破人民币3000，
再到2017年3月的高点人民币4000，
在国际大宗商品铁砂下跌后，
在2017年中月回跌稳定在人民币3700。
所以，11个月的时间涨了人民币1326左右。























现在看回本地长钢的价钱，
长钢最高的平均价钱是在2017年3月的前半个月。
大约在平均RM2300左右。
3月之后回跌稳定在平均RM2200左右。
而且，保护税宣布延长后，价格继续维持，也没有提价。
为什么这么好啊? 有钱不赚?
原因是成本跌价了!!!




中国钢铁在2017年3月的时候达到极高价位，
一吨螺纹钢20mm人民币4000,
以当时马币1.57转换，
大约是RM2547。
如果大马长钢商长期以这样RM2547的高价交易，
那会是比天高的盈利。但是，顾客应该全部也完蛋。
好在铁砂终于在3月中后下滑。
从接近USD90回跌到2017年5月的USD68。

如果可以跌到USD60，那安裕会开心的跳起来。
原料的跌价，所以大马的市场销售价也从平均RM2300，
回稳到平均RM2200。实际上，成本跌价会赚更多。

也由于铁砂的跌价，大马废铁市场也跟随跌价。
四月每吨先跌了个RM30，5月起又跌了个RM50每吨。
这些原料跌价，使得使用废铁的电炉有了比较便宜的成本。
但是在3月铁砂高涨的时候，四家本地长钢商都在拼命抢废铁。
之后铁砂开始跌到USD68，安裕放缓了脚步抢废铁。
但是其他3家还是拼命争抢中。

后话，

由于保护税的因素，长钢的市场突然扩大很多，
以前从中国进口的市场份额，都得靠本地供应了，
这块大饼就只有本地4家长钢业者瓜分。
可以预期2017一整年将会是长钢4家业者的大丰收年!!

后后话，
市场目前有一说，安裕也有供应billet给其他3家长钢商的扎钢厂，
用来扎成wire rod 或 rebar。
这代表安裕的生产力可以使用到最高。
当然，股东大会就到了，可以当场问问老板，

是不是有此事。

Posted by Leo Ting at 06:12
http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/05/6.html

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-03 14:40 | Report Abuse

0.36 now....

Posted by myuptownboy > 2017-05-03 14:42 | Report Abuse

flying...

Posted by steelmaha > 2017-05-07 20:00 | Report Abuse

I bought at 0.40.....waiting to long

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-08 10:11 | Report Abuse

Just need few step to touch it!!!

Posted by safewinner > 2017-05-08 11:02 | Report Abuse

small retailer play play,no fund manager,operator try to made some

Posted by steelmaha > 2017-05-08 12:33 | Report Abuse

yeah...all small retailer....but once sold...price will shoot!

Posted by pang651 > 2017-05-08 21:27 | Report Abuse

Gonna shoot up agn or shoot down....??

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-09 10:36 | Report Abuse

shoot up....shoot up.....flying............

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-09 10:40 | Report Abuse

flying now...its might same movement trend as per year earlier...wait and see...hehe...

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-09 10:43 | Report Abuse

0.36 now....

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-09 10:43 | Report Abuse

Ready to sapu all 0.36-0.39.....

Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-05-09 10:47 | Report Abuse

First Target 0.435.

Posted by safewinner > 2017-05-10 00:02 | Report Abuse

close 0.345 only up half cent, 0.365 also cannot break,wait for big volume,play safe just monitor
YES wait n see

Posted by Josephine Ong > 2017-05-11 16:29 | Report Abuse

mycron already run...melewar next

Posted by tan8620 > 2017-05-11 17:28 | Report Abuse

high chance for melewar will follow mycron....mycron going to cheong toward 1.00...then melewar will follow to 40sen

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-18 14:38 | Report Abuse

Melewar is a high potential turnaround company in steel sector. Its top and bottom lines are almost completely correlated with Mycron from now on. The valuation in term of a PER is less than half of Mycron if you exclude losses in Engineering segment. Buy while many are not interested in it.

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-18 15:03 | Report Abuse

As stated in latest QR, the Engineering division will only incurred minor losses in future as full provision has been taken into account and supported with special audit report. The future of Melewar is rather bight given the good prospect of Mycron.

QR 31 Dec 2016

The Group’s engineering business suffered significant losses for the current quarter as the Engineering subsidiary recognized additional expected losses on onerous construction contracts ahead of their completion. (Refer to Note A5). For the remaining financial year, the Engineering subsidiary will focus on completing the aforementioned construction contracts within the budgeted losses and unlikely to take on further engagements. Barring any further overrun on budgeted cost-to-completion for these projects and the discharge of contractual obligations thereof, the Group is not expecting further material negative contribution from the Engineering subsidiary apart from its overheads and debt-service costs for the remaining financial year.

Whilst it is possible that the Group’s steel businesses’ performance may eclipse its engineering business’ performance in the 2nd half of the remaining financial year, this would unlikely be enough to surpass the Group’s current year-to-date losses. In this regard, the Group’s prospect outlook for the remaining financial year remains at negative.

Posted by abangadik > 2017-05-18 15:05 | Report Abuse

wow up_down bro..you should start writing blog. This really looks like an interesting valuetrade but I think most people are not fond of the management.

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-18 15:10 | Report Abuse

abangadik. I cut and pasted information in the latest QR. Don't worry. The investors and traders would change their view when the company starting show good profit. If you believe that Mycron has good prospect, why not for Melewar. Melewar owned 71.4% in Mycron.

Posted by abangadik > 2017-05-18 15:14 | Report Abuse

You got a point there. :D Mycron Melewar, Abangadik. If take out engineering means no lost for Melewar.. contribution is from Mycron. In another words, can consider have both to ripe more upside and control safety for coming qr. after qr we will know if what they say is true for Melewar unless anyone got insider info..hahahaa...

Posted by probability > 2017-05-18 15:18 | Report Abuse

:)

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-18 15:30 | Report Abuse

The signal of showing good profit is very clear for the next few quarters unless Mycron cannot perform well.

Posted by safewinner > 2017-05-18 22:29 | Report Abuse

Up-down ...i cant see any signal of showing good profit ,from 0.66c drop to present 0.33c
better wait for end may QR,Mycron is steel,Melewar is engineering

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-19 10:23 | Report Abuse

safewinner. You take a look of their P/L by making a comparison between Melewar and Mycron then you can only understand. Do your homework la....

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-19 10:26 | Report Abuse

I apply theory " “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” in Melewar. wakaka

Posted by probability > 2017-05-19 18:39 | Report Abuse

thanks for sharing your opinion VenFx

Posted by probability > 2017-05-19 18:52 | Report Abuse

ok. I bought Mycron only so far.

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-19 19:10 | Report Abuse

Melewar got nothing....errrrr but 71.4% stakes in Mycron. Mycron is controlled by Melewar. lol

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-19 19:18 | Report Abuse

Melewar is traded at 34 cents was mainly due to its sucking Engineering division. It won't be cheap when Engineering division suffer minor losses. We don't even know whether there is a reversal of provision for onerous contract in future. I feel comfortable a bit as special audit has been conducted.

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-19 19:21 | Report Abuse

I don't know if there is any further provision in onerous contract...and this is the risk I got to take.... A matter of Risk and Reward.

Posted by abangadik > 2017-05-19 19:28 | Report Abuse

lets see if we yumseng or loss some money..wakakaka..

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-19 19:36 | Report Abuse

Abangadik. It's so nice if they shut down their Engineering division. wakaka

Posted by abangadik > 2017-05-19 19:50 | Report Abuse

To be honest, to be greedy when people are fearful implies if do homework properly. Of course if you are a trader then TA and momentum will be great indicator. For investors like us that has multiple jobs, reading and studying during night and weekend, can buy these shit company when in deepshit and hopefully they turnaround and HUAT!!

Posted by VenFx > 2017-05-19 21:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by John Lu > 2017-05-19 21:24 | Report Abuse

Ven sifu, i sai lang annjoo ssteel and lion

Posted by Wai Hoe Chai > 2017-05-19 23:26 | Report Abuse

melewar really a turnaround company or not? my opinion is to ask the engineering division dun be so stupid again to underbid the project in future. learn from this good lesson. lost money now doesnt mean will lose forever, for me, give the engineering guy some time. see they can perform or not. i choose to stay here. same to last year, i choose to leave lionind at 36sen. due to poor QR result. but now. what happen to lionind? lionind really a turnaround company with proven good QR result.

Posted by Wai Hoe Chai > 2017-05-20 00:01 | Report Abuse

then now should say im taking risk on the journey to west? time will tell. i choose to stay. thanks for advise. think too much will make shorter life. better fix my mind heading to west. haha.

Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-05-22 11:14 | Report Abuse

0.365 now...

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-22 11:29 | Report Abuse

Good.....

Posted by Superhero77 > 2017-05-22 11:40 | Report Abuse

First target 0.395....0.435....... then towards highest....

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-22 11:45 | Report Abuse

Its might be going to another territory...Predict QR is good and might got some special announcement....Trade at your own risk!

Posted by anson938 > 2017-05-22 11:47 | Report Abuse

0.37 now,it's might break 0.38