For those who intend to accumulate Tadmax, now is wonderful time. Prices plunge due to irrational panic and perhaps forced selling. Just look at its current biz. This alone worth more than current price. If you include the value of IPP, the value would be way above.
Market in general likely to be bullish on Monday, Tadmax will definitely do very well to say the least. Well done to those been following closely Tadmax. Innitially and still currently Tadmax owns 100% of the Project and will sell down its ownership to 40%. Tadmax already make profit from selling its 60% stake at a premium when the project has not really started yet!
Just the value of PIPP, Pulau Indah Power Plant, based on the valuation done for selling a 35% stake to WHB @rm 58.4 millions, is rm167 million after discounted for 20% and 30% for illiquidity and lack of marketability. It implied the PV of PIPP with a DCF of 8% is approx Rm300 millions.
The market Cap of Tadmax @17.5 cent is only rm137M.
The sales of another 40% to WHB should be at a premium as WHB is buying a major controlling stake of 75%.
The sales proceed for 75 % stake of PIPP to WHB would be at least rm125 million, if there is no premium attached which is unlikely. This sum could be injected for Tadmax's 25% equity interest for the rm3. 3B Power Plant. With an equity to debt ratio of 20% to 80%, Tadmax's equity cash injection would be rm165 millions.
Tadmax likely would not need to raise RI and will hold a 25% stake in PIPP after selling 75% stake to WHB. The sales proceed to WHB could fetch Rm150 million if there is a 20 premium attached.
Market Cap still below the value of PIPP, rm167 M, after a discount of 20% and 30% due to illliquidity and marketability.. to arrive at RM58. 4M for the sales of 35% to WHB.
The company has another huge asset in Papua New Guinea, 80,0000 HA of forest land for timber logging and later to be planted with oil palm.. The asset was bought in 2011 with cash of rm200+ million.
Just go back and check what are the costs of the major shareholders who accepted the Private Placement, settlement of the company debts with shares over the years. Check Bursa announcement on "Additional Listing.."
Can safely say that their average cost is about 30 to 40 cents a share.
Take the extreme lower end, since the company is net cash, assume the forest land and concession and the property business are bonus and have zero value, just the value of the power plant, PIPP @ rm225 million, gives a share value of at least, 225/783, 28.7 cent per share
Actually I think the calculations by the company, the Present Value of PIPP @approximately Rm300 million is understated. Bear in mind that Tadmax has a piece of land in Pulau Indah, about 60 acres, is injected to PIPP as the site of the Power Plant. The land has a market value of RM100 million.
A RM3. 3B Power Plant with 21 years concession and 3 years to construct and more than 3 years to plan, only add value of rm200 million? A return of 6%?
Jaks has a 30% stake in the Hai Duong 1200 MW coal fired power plant in Vietnam costing USD1. 87 B, which is about RM7. 8 B. Compare this with Tadmax's PIPP Combine Cycle Power Plant in Pulau Indah which also has the same capacity 1200 MW costing RM3. 3B.
With Posco as EPCC contractor no need for Kepco.There is only 25% holding left and it has to be Tadmax as it is their project.They have to give 75 % to Worldwide in order for the financing package to be successful as the lenders probably insist on them giving a corporate guarantee.So no 75% WW no guarantee no financing and no project takeoff.Even with 25% share Tadmax should be happy with it as profit could be as high as 350M or eps of 0.44.Tadmax share could reach 4.40 on completion of the power plant
steady31 With Posco as EPCC contractor no need for Kepco.There is only 25% holding left and it has to be Tadmax as it is their project.They have to give 75 % to Worldwide in order for the financing package to be successful as the lenders probably insist on them giving a corporate guarantee.So no 75% WW no guarantee no financing and no project takeoff.Even with 25% share Tadmax should be happy with it as profit could be as high as 350M or eps of 0.44.Tadmax share could reach 4.40 on completion of the power plant 07/04/2020 10:17 AM
Steady31
You make a lot of sense..
Kepco is a foreign company, ownership may have to get approval which may not be forthcoming, so it is better to rope in WHB, which is a company of the Selangor State Government.
The 60 acres land in Pulau Indah alone worth rm100 millions
The 80,000 HA forest land with timber concession rights, in Papua New Guinea, bought at rm260 million in 2011. Turnkey Contractor already appointed to harvest the timber and develop the land into Oil Palm Plantation. The company reserves the right to sell the asset if a buyer could be found anytime.
PIPP, the power plant In Pulau Indah has a Present Value of approx Rm300 million. 35% selling to WHB for RM58. 4million, at 20% and 30% discount due to illliquidity and lack of marketibility (LOL). If Tadmax sells its 100% in PIPP, it would be much more than rm167 million, as the illiquidity and lack of marketibility discounts of 20% and 30 % discount applied in the 35% stake sales to WHB would not be valid ANYMORE, IF it is selling the controlling stake. It should fetch much more than rm200+++ million.
The Market Cap now @19.5 cent is ONLY rm153 million.
The company now in net cash position. Directors and major shareholders, holding shares, issued to them for debt settlements, at costs ranged from 36-50 cents per share.
Uptrending,watch the price action carefully.Once the financing is raised,it is all system go for the power business.And ot is only possible if WW ,one of the most successful government entity which operate 760 MW Langat Plant ,gives its backing for the sukuk loan.with that ,Tadmax price trajectory can follow that of Jaks and MFCB..It should be at least 0.60 as what its NTA is .
As said earlier Tadmax is in the process of totaling exiting the 1,2000MW IPP by selling its 75% (35%+40%) interest in the project company to Worldwide. The Project will finally be owned 75% by Worldwide and the balance 25% by Kepco. Kepco will be a partner in the IPP as part of condition of approval by the government. The reason why Tadmax is exiting from the IPP Project is best known to Tadmax itself. In biz and life too, there no certainty. Things beyond your expectation can happen any time.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stncws
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Posted by stncws > 2020-02-17 00:16 | Report Abuse
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