Posted by gemfinder > 2020-12-19 22:44 | Report Abuse

Oil px play an important role in determining the profitabity. Stock holding gain, i guess

Posted by winghuat > 2020-12-19 22:48 | Report Abuse

When OTB said On means Buy. Dont be so stubborn. He is Master, I respect him a lot. We trust old bird, guru....words of wisdom speaking..

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-12-19 23:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BursaTornado > 2020-12-20 00:03 | Report Abuse

@start_of_the_bull. You can check the quarterly report. I remember there was tax return that made HY swing from lost to profitable.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2020-12-20 00:13 | Report Abuse

For O&G, I think invest in upstream company seems safer. The profit margin sustainable with high crude price.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2020-12-20 00:14 | Report Abuse

To be truth, I left this counter few days ago when I recovered most of my lost.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2020-12-20 00:18 | Report Abuse

Lesson learnt, no more trusting anyone. Especially 'con you in'. Learn to fish yourselves is the only way.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2020-12-20 00:25 | Report Abuse

Tag along with the 5G and autonomous vehicle wave. It is just the beginning.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2020-12-20 00:27 | Report Abuse

You will not want to get trapped in this counter for 3 years. There are plenty of tress out there.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-20 00:31 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
From Q3 report: Cumulative 9 month 30th Sept 2020
Manufacturing expenses: RM 166,920,000
Administrative expenses: RM 63,489,000
Depreciation and amortisation: RM 89,023,000
Finance cost: RM 18,864,000
Total: RM 338,296,000
Sales volumes Barrel: 25,400,000
Cost per barrel: RM 13.32
USD to MYR: 4.15:Cost per barrel: USD 3.22

HRC Q3 result: Page 21
The average market prices of oil products for the current quarter saw some improvement against the margins recorded in the immediately preceding quarter, although they continued to be in the negative region. The positive combination of stock holding gains and support from oil margin swaps for the current period resulted in a comparatively higher gross margin and net profit against the previous quarter.

Some improvement against the margins recorded in the immediately preceding quarter, although they continued to be in the negative region.
Mean refining margin still negative for the quarter. And quarter profit is from stock holding gains and support from oil margin swaps.

Q3 inventories gain base on Average Brent Crude per barrel Q2: USD 29 to Q3: USD 43 is USD 14.
Q4 result will again depend on this inventories gain again. If average brent crude Q4 (Oct, Nov and Dec) is USD 49 then the inventories gain is USD 6 compare to Q3 of USD 14.

HRC Q2 result page: 20
Refining margins were also adversely affected by poor product cracks and stock holding losses, as crude prices fell from USD67 to USD19 per barrel, before settling at USD40 per barrel in June 2020. These were cushioned by the effects of margin and commodity hedges, which the Company has put in place as part of its risk management measures.
Net forex gain of RM16.3 million (inclusive of fair value gains on the outstanding foreign currency swaps) was recognised in the current quarter as Ringgit Malaysia marginally strengthened from RM4.31 to RM4.28 against the US Dollar.
Tax effects for the current quarter and cumulative period includes the recognition of deferred tax asset on tax losses previously not recognised, taking into account the availability of future taxable profits against which it can be utilised. (A11: RM 48,421,000)

Mean without
1. Net forex gain of RM16.3 million
2. Deferred tax: RM 48,421,000
3. Margin and commodity hedges
Q2 will be a loss making quarter.

Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2020-12-20 08:45 | Report Abuse

Appreciate Sslee has burned the midnight oil to write a 1 kilometer long analysis.
So I think if Hengyuan has collected enough oil inventory in November 2020 at USD43 it should stand to gain on the oil price surge at USD52 now.
No?

Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2020-12-20 08:53 | Report Abuse

SO if Brent crude price climb higher, more inventory gain. Inventory gain is unavoidable in October - December 20 unless oil price drop back to USD42. Right?

Posted by OTB > 2020-12-20 09:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by winghuat > Dec 19, 2020 10:48 PM | Report Abuse

When OTB said On means Buy. Dont be so stubborn. He is Master, I respect him a lot. We trust old bird, guru....words of wisdom speaking..
------------------------
Ans : TA is bullish, I accept some of explanation of Sslee.
I want to study further before I recommend it.
I decline to comment on this stock, I need to study further.
Thank you.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-20 09:09 | Report Abuse

The oil inventory gain/loss basically compare the quarter average market brent crude oil price with the previous quarter average brent crude oil price.

As of how actually it was reported in the account, I have no idea.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-20 09:23 | Report Abuse

HRC last quarter:
Revenue: RM 1,588,139,000
Inventories: RM 1,072,354,000

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-20 14:01 | Report Abuse

Simple as this loh...!!

3 element in analysing Hengyuan.

1. Crack Spread

2. Actual Inventory mark to market gain or losses.

3. Actual Oil Derivative mark to market gain or losses mah...!

Posted by Sslee > Dec 20, 2020 9:09 AM | Report Abuse

The oil inventory gain/loss basically compare the quarter average market brent crude oil price with the previous quarter average brent crude oil price.

As of how actually it was reported in the account, I have no idea.


Posted by Sslee > Dec 20, 2020 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

HRC last quarter:
Revenue: RM 1,588,139,000
Inventories: RM 1,072,354,000

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-20 14:05 | Report Abuse

Haha stockraider remember the good old day in year 2017-2018 when crack spread is USD 8/barrel and he lead his army to take down the enemy defend line one by one.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-20 14:09 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....but crack spread now only USD 1 to 3 only mah...!!

Also Hengyuan management had make it more complicated by introducing speculative huge oil derivative in their business model not only for hedging but for speculation too mah...!!

Posted by Sslee > Dec 20, 2020 2:05 PM | Report Abuse

Haha stockraider remember the good old day in year 2017-2018 when crack spread is USD 8/barrel and he lead his army to take down the enemy defend line one by one.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-20 14:10 | Report Abuse

Normally when crack spread is USD 4....usually hengyuan can make more than Rm 100m profit loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-20 14:12 | Report Abuse

But this is subject to the adjustment of inventory gain v losses loh!!

Also derivative gain v losses loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Dec 20, 2020 2:10 PM | Report Abuse X

Normally when crack spread is USD 4....usually hengyuan can make more than Rm 100m profit loh...!!

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-20 14:19 | Report Abuse

Haha graduate from school of hard knocks speak from lessons learnt.

Posted by smartly > 2020-12-20 14:22 | Report Abuse

bitten once, twice wiser now...

Posted by LA777 > 2020-12-20 15:47 | Report Abuse

Next week can start to collect back.

Posted by probability > 2020-12-20 16:00 | Report Abuse

another factor to note is the jet fuel crack spread....

till all the flights resume, margin on this product would be very low, unlike gasoline and diesel with land and sea transport demand

jet fuel is an inevitable product of refinery when you produce gasoline and diesel, but there are no consumers presently

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-20 16:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by LA777 > 2020-12-20 16:11 | Report Abuse

Recovery on the way, go go go!

Posted by kakashi > 2020-12-20 16:58 | Report Abuse

Haha.. Nice complicated analysis.
So the cracks now is usd3? But with oil price getting higher, inventories should benefit much more compare to last quarter right

Posted by kakashi > 2020-12-20 17:00 | Report Abuse

I think ppl still waiting OTB decision to buy or not

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-20 17:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-20 17:01 | Report Abuse

Correct loh....!!

Raider trying very hard to find one more pretty than insas but cannot find any better loh...!!

Just go for insas it is the best mah...!!


Posted by leno > Dec 18, 2020 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

...
....' an old man was trying to find his wife in a very big supermarket, and he bump into another man who also lost his wife there. The man describe his wife to the old man .. very pretty, sexy, wearing onli underwear, nothing else ....what is your wife look like ? The old man answer, forget mine, let's go find yours...'

remember .... net cash alone already RM 1.16
Can u show me any other counter trading below net cash ?
If u can show me, please, but don't waste time trying to find one.

Posted by kakashi > 2020-12-20 17:04 | Report Abuse

Forex gain from 4.31 to 4.28 of 16 Mil. Now usd is 4.04

Posted by valuer > 2020-12-20 17:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by deadpoolstock > 2020-12-20 17:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-12-20 17:33 | Report Abuse

Forex gain wil b huge for 4th quater

Posted by Herlooo > 2020-12-20 17:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by raiderstock > 2020-12-20 17:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by James Ng > 2020-12-20 20:49 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2020-12-20-story-h1538310015.jsp
[转贴] [Video:浅谈HENGYUAN REFINING COMPANY BHD, HENGYUAN, 4324] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-12-20 22:08 | Report Abuse

James said next q report good

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-20 22:30 | Report Abuse

HRC Q3;
Net forex gain of RM36.5 million (inclusive of fair value gains on the outstanding foreign currency swaps) was recognised in the current quarter as Ringgit Malaysia strengthened from RM4.28 to RM4.15 against the US Dollar.

So Q4 expected another Net forex gain again due to HRC borrowing in USD.

But the Q3 stockholding gains and support from oil margin swaps for the current period resulted in a comparatively higher gross margin and net profit against the previous quarter will be less in Q4.

Overall Q4 profit will be less than Q3

Posted by LA777 > 2020-12-20 23:25 | Report Abuse

Don't waste time on Insas, no life there.

Posted by kakashi > 2020-12-21 00:07 | Report Abuse

Still profit. 51 cents in q3. If q4 30 cents, take 4 quarters = 1.60 maybe. Just saja tembak
So PE = 6. PRICE = 9.60

Posted by kakashi > 2020-12-21 00:08 | Report Abuse

I still think next price is rm10 to 12

Posted by Dartmaster > 2020-12-21 09:07 | Report Abuse

To holland ya. when oil price drop this thing drop like a tank ya.. remember... when oil price go up this thing stagnant and go down by abit

Posted by eki3invest > 2020-12-21 09:11 | Report Abuse

It's coming?

Posted by Dartmaster > 2020-12-21 09:12 | Report Abuse

Coming to holland.

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-12-21 09:13 | Report Abuse

sold all 5.87.

Posted by MagicGlove > 2020-12-21 09:37 | Report Abuse

MAYDAY....MAYDAY....RUN.....RUN....

Posted by MagicGlove > 2020-12-21 09:37 | Report Abuse

BACK TO 2-3

Posted by Bullrunrun > 2020-12-21 09:49 | Report Abuse

standby to buy soon this week

Posted by wiser_dude > 2020-12-21 10:52 | Report Abuse

Stupid con counter