Hengyuan Refining Co. Maintain Overweight with a short term target of RM5.00 and medium term target of RM8.50
We have high conviction that Brent will continue its rally until at least Q2 2022 thanks to the commodity super cycle. Keep in mind that the oil rally is usually an indicator of a commodity cycle coming to an end.
At the same time, the beginning of the winter season and climatic factors such as rapid change in temperature is very likely to continue driving up demand, further contributing towards volatility in oil prices.
Political stability and military conflicts in Middle East countries could also put pressure on oil prices. Apart from that, the policy-driven transition to "carbon-neutral" or carbon-free infrastructure and the slow lifting of supply restriction by OPEC agreement (400,000 barrels per day as of late September), we could be seeing the beginning of oil rally which is actually a bad sign for the economy.
Goldman Sachs analyst in the recent investor note: "OPEC+ deciding “to an aggressively faster ramp-up in production by year-end would soften (but not derail) our projected deficit, it would only further delay the shale rebound"
"The bigger point, though, is that despite high energy prices and talk of crisis, both OPEC+ and the U.S. shale sector aren’t rushing to add more supply. It’s possible to interpret this as an effort to derail green agendas, but that feels unnecessarily conspiratorial. Rather, the cost of oil has increased, but for reasons above the ground rather than below." - Liam Denning, BB Opinion
After i sold my Hibiscus at 80 cents, i quickly bought Hengyuan at 4.60! So i didn't realise missout on Hibiscus surge! Happy with Hengyuan as i expect it to go to 10.00! So yeah, i jump to better horse!
I think Pang72 is right about Petron! I may sell half of Hengyuan and buy Petron! Thanks for your tips! I didn't realise Petron is much more stable and profitable!
As for Hengyuan, it may not go up as fast because investors want to see if Hengyuan turn profitable next quarter! Again, another amateur mistake from me! Haix, my skill is just not as good as it used to be! I think because of long gloom bursa outlook from 2018 to 2021 that my skill has suffer! Or maybe it's time for me to retire from bursa!
With Brent stood at $85.50, crack spread $10.50, cars on the road, plane in the sky, Hengyuan might be a good bet. Management already make 2 huge financial hedging losses, pray hard coming quarter to get a surprising eps of 115 cents. Double edge sword.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
HaroldHuong
384 posts
Posted by HaroldHuong > 2021-10-08 12:21 | Report Abuse
Let break up 5.0 first...