One need to be objective and not too brain-tunnelled to just profits and high crack spreads to justify the reasons it should go up.Sometimes there are reasons unknown to us why it drops.The fact recent extremely good results and almost all time high crack spread did not push the price up but down instead made me very uncomfortable holding this stock.Our market is extremely bearish for many counters that normally all up gaps will close but not down gaps.The low in March 2020 is 2.20 closed the up gap on 19th Jan 2017as the low on 19th Jan 2017 was 2.54 whereas the high was 2.53 on 18th Jan 2017.Can you imagine it not only closed the gap on 19th Jan 2017,it went to hit almost the low achieved on 6th Jan which is 2.19.The 76.4 and 61.8 retracement from 7.33 of the low 2.2 are 3.41 and 4.15 respectively.Calculation of 61.8 of 4.15 and and 3.41 is 3.69 and it had hit 3.65 before it rebounded then again 3.67 then recently 3.70 despite the catalyst for upward thrust were there.If I look at the balance sheet the net gearing excluding debtors is 2.7 billion of a capital paid up of 300 million is extremely high.In addition account receivable and payable is also very high.There are three up gaps namely nov 10th at 2.75 a day high was 2.73,3.1 on 20th nov 3.1 a day before 2.99 and 27 th nov 3.64 a day before 3.55. A million dollar question now ponders in my mind,will all these up gaps closed?The government has also announced the ban of interstate travels even for unvaccinated citizens,why did it choose go down instead of up?The mthly chart shows,it has broken the center bollinger band for many mths and it's still far from the lower band.However it's now resting on the lower band of the weekly chart.It's best not too gung ho and be objective and look at price action.In my opinion the syndicate seems able to manipulate the price without much resistance either up/down.This is not to advise to buy/sell.We all do not know which route it will take and this rest entirely to your risk appetite.
I think the possibility is high to close all gaps if it breaks 3.65 cause this will be the 4 th time it breaks that level.Again I could be dead wrong on this,hopefully I am wrong on this uncomfortable feeling.
I still feel very comfortable with Hengyuan share price is cheap given oil price is trading around $100 for the past 1 month... Surely profit is handsome
Sure as long as you are comfortable,good for you.Risk appetite differs from one another.No one knows the route it takes,only the syndicate knows what he wants to do.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Annetan
850 posts
Posted by Annetan > 2022-04-01 14:26 | Report Abuse
One need to be objective and not too brain-tunnelled to just profits and high crack spreads to justify the reasons it should go up.Sometimes there are reasons unknown to us why it drops.The fact recent extremely good results and almost all time high crack spread did not push the price up but down instead made me very uncomfortable holding this stock.Our market is extremely bearish for many counters that normally all up gaps will close but not down gaps.The low in March 2020 is 2.20 closed the up gap on 19th Jan 2017as the low on 19th Jan 2017 was 2.54 whereas the high was 2.53 on 18th Jan 2017.Can you imagine it not only closed the gap on 19th Jan 2017,it went to hit almost the low achieved on 6th Jan which is 2.19.The 76.4 and 61.8 retracement from 7.33 of the low 2.2 are 3.41 and 4.15 respectively.Calculation of 61.8 of 4.15 and and 3.41 is 3.69 and it had hit 3.65 before it rebounded then again 3.67 then recently 3.70 despite the catalyst for upward thrust were there.If I look at the balance sheet the net gearing excluding debtors is 2.7 billion of a capital paid up of 300 million is extremely high.In addition account receivable and payable is also very high.There are three up gaps namely nov 10th at 2.75 a day high was 2.73,3.1 on 20th nov 3.1 a day before 2.99 and 27 th nov 3.64 a day before 3.55. A million dollar question now ponders in my mind,will all these up gaps closed?The government has also announced the ban of interstate travels even for unvaccinated citizens,why did it choose go down instead of up?The mthly chart shows,it has broken the center bollinger band for many mths and it's still far from the lower band.However it's now resting on the lower band of the weekly chart.It's best not too gung ho and be objective and look at price action.In my opinion the syndicate seems able to manipulate the price without much resistance either up/down.This is not to advise to buy/sell.We all do not know which route it will take and this rest entirely to your risk appetite.