Posted by Michael Kwok > 2022-09-25 11:57 | Report Abuse

Freedom of speech.tht y.under pakatan harapan..

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 11:59 | Report Abuse

Free of speech is ok. But with guideline to follow mah. I3 set the guidelines for all to follow one leh. Now I3 give leeway for those Cafe Boss macai to post vulgarity leh. Mana boleh so unfair leh. Haiyoh. Correct?



Michael Kwok

Freedom of speech.tht y.under pakatan harapan..

1 second ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 12:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by $$ BUYSELL $$ > 2022-09-25 12:16 | Report Abuse

stock is up and down, must know your counter is uptrend or downtrend. never fight when downhill.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 13:15 | Report Abuse

Can Europe replace oil imports from Russia?

The fact that a large share of Europe’s crude oil imports are by ship rather than pipeline means that in principle, replacing Russian oil will be easier than replacing Russian gas. However, three major bottlenecks should be considered:

i) Intra-European oil infrastructure: if Russian oil supplies stop, it will be challenging to re-route crude oil and oil products inside the EU. The infrastructure is designed for east to west flows, and moving crude oil and products eastwards might entail abnormal movements of crude, including via rail, truck and river barge.

ii) Refineries: certain European refineries are optimised to use Russian oil and will be less efficient if producing with a different quality of crude. Iraqi and Iranian crude come closest to Russian crude. Particularly vulnerable are six large refineries along the Druzhba pipeline (in Poland, Germany, Czechia, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia). In 2019, these refiners were subject to a stress test as flows were disrupted because of contamination of oil. They passed the test using strategic reserves, crude stored onsite and re-routed seaborne deliveries. But these outages lasted only two months. If it is not possible to feed these refineries, slack will have to be taken up in alternative refineries to meet final product demand. While port refineries are still vulnerable to a drop from such a large supplier, they are typically better placed to: a) accept different crude types, and b) accept consignements from new suppliers.

iii) Replacing Russian refining capacity: beyond crude oil supply, the EU must also consider replacing Russian refining capacity that produces diesel, naphtha and fuel oil. European refiners could try to compensate for this by increasing refinery throughput. To replace lost Russian diesel supply, for example, European refineries would have to raise runs by about 10 percentage points, taking them to almost 90% of total capacity of 15-16 mb/d. It would be the highest utilisation rate this century.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-25 13:17 | Report Abuse

Walao King_trader asking sslee 4 advice about cutloss warrant

U dunno meh sslee dump high his warrants on ur head..u basically bought expensive tickets he dump aiyoyo

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-25 13:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-09-25 13:57 | Report Abuse

Hy a lot of loans in usd... sure kena

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 13:59 | Report Abuse

its a one time event where the increase in profit from gross margin in a single qtr easily offsets the loss on derivatives

while rise in profit from gross margin is recurring every single qtr


Posted by gemfinder > Sep 25, 2022 1:57 PM | Report Abuse

Hy a lot of loans in usd... sure kena

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-25 14:17 | Report Abuse

Unverified factual have no correlation with the share price performance. No fund managers, no qualifed research coverage, no one out there talk about it except this room. It was short term hype during the dump and pump music chair and oil price massive fluctuation. Good fundamental stock will not fall into this pressing level because they have proper reinforcement and under fund managers watch list. Let the storm pass through and do not support until the time you hardly see us around here. Then only make the move. Any short spike due to new low, must cash out. Otherwise keep in the fridge and wait for next cycle. Some say 3 months, 2 years, 5 years or the one you are seeing now the gloves sector. A few from here contributed to that sector disastrous. If one insist and a must, go for the one time big below 4 and averaging your losses and get ready to cash out when there is a quick spike. Otherwise you are on your own...

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-25 14:27 | Report Abuse

Whatever dude. Low end room and only low ed would understand. You don't even dare to speak from original ID. Should have sold but stubborn as rock. Stop whinning now.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-25 14:50 | Report Abuse

Its taunting the sore losers who part of the scamming and spammimg here. You cant even able to differentiate that. That's why you are hidden and we are open. Lots of learning dude.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-25 14:53 | Report Abuse

Dont be shy in public forum. Just split it out from the same ID or it's little rather too late right? Bunch of comments in your real ID and you have to hide behind the bush ?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 15:01 | Report Abuse

the fundamental issue that Fed is tackling is - inflation

1) what is the root cause of inflation?

It should be obvious that its the high oil price..


2) why is oil price high while demand is low?

its because oil producers do not want to increase output and reduce price especially saudi who wants to benefit on its only income source using present opportunity despite US persuasion'

so, eventually the Saudi has to give in....i.e increase production / reduce price..

there is a plan for russian oil price cap too to help (this could be a big game changer)



3) what happens when oil price comes down?

increase pressure for higher utilization at the refinery to meet higher demand for gasoline

refinery margin would strengthen



Posted by Vicky > Sep 25, 2022 9:49 AM | Report Abuse

As mentioned earlier Fed continuation to increase interest rate will slash economy growth. Oil utilisation will also reduce perhaps down to USD80/barrel or more. Even Saudis or Russia wants to maintain USD90 & above in not true. The demand is less. They produce less as well to maintain price but in terms of volume they are unable to break even. How long they can reduce volume ? Dr. Doom predicted it will be a long recession as inflations are 40 years high. So reduce your oil portfolio and spread to customer staples where even recession customer still need to use. Do not be carried away by so-called unqualified gurus. Save your money and prepare to re-enter during market massive slump. Oil once a while will rebound a bit but it is time to reduce portfolios. Check history of oil prices during recession. Tqvm

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 15:01 | Report Abuse

Currently 1 USD = 4.57 MYR
.............

With such weakening of MYR against USD, seriously HY would be save haven for the long term

you only need average 12.7 USD/brl margin:
..........................................


Gross margin using above hypothetical margin (considering reversal to mean under long term scenario)

= (10.7 million barrels/qtr ) x (12.7 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.57/USD)
= 621 million MYR ....


PBT = 541 million
PAT = 411 million
EPS = 1.37 per qtr

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 15:02 | Report Abuse

MALAYSIA DATA: DIESEL output at 8-month high, LNG nears record!

9 Sep 2022

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Malaysia’s output of diesel reached an eight-month high in July and LNG topped 3 million mt for only the second time on record, as producers responded to soaring prices for both products.

Diesel production grew 3.9% to 1.24 million tonnes, up around 2.5% on the year to its highest level since November 2021, according to data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics.

And liquified natural gas (LNG) ticked up 1.4% to just over 3 million tonnes for only the second time on record going back to 2009.

Both diesel and natural gas markets have tightened this year sending prices soaring, especially in Europe following the war in Ukraine.


..............


Diesel at 46% yield, at today's crack USD 44.9/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (44.9 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.55/USD)
= 1005 million MYR ....


PBT = 925 million
PAT = 703 million
EPS = 2.34

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-25 15:10 | Report Abuse

Whatever dude. Aren't you responding now? Have to be sharp what are you try to say here. Now just wait for the next day opening price and see the damages.No point talk about general personality when you dont have any clue what you want here. But I respect your effort creating the new ID and start belittling and communicating. Keep it up dude.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 17:16 | Report Abuse

once Q3 results out, i3investors would be able to see through HY like an x-ray...

all speculators can simply shut the fcuk up permanently after that


Posted by Sslee > Sep 25, 2022 7:49 AM | Report Abuse

Dear King_trader_shadow,
Another week to go before end of Sept and I am sure HRC Q3 will be another very profitable quarter.

Mamy people misunderstood HRC Refining margin swap contracts and keep repeating false alarm that q2 reported unrealised loss of (assets- liabilities) of over 1.4 billion will be realised in q3 without giving a thought that unrealised loss is based on 30/6/2022 and most likely the refining margin swaps contracts is for maybe over 12 months:
On 30/06/22
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964


On HRC share price.
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay rational/solvent."

I hold some HRC, C24 and C26. My C24 almost free for me as I sold part of it at RM 0.20 to get back my capital hence I can afford to wait for q3 and q4 result.

As for you you need to decide for yourself what is best for you.

By end of Sept 2022, you are free to fill in Gasoil, Mogas92, Jet-fuel crack spread and make your guesstimate what will be Refining margin assets and liabilities for Q3 end 30/09/22.

31/12/2021
Gasoil crack spread: USD 11.703
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 10.456
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 280,487,000
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)

31/03/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)

30/0620/22
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)

30/09/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD___
Mogas92 crack spread: USD___
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD___
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD___
Assets: RM___
Liabilities: RM_____

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 19:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 20:08 | Report Abuse

Why banned already I3 dunno how to cover the loopholes kah. Pay peanut to IT guy cant even catch the Cafe Boss macai kah. So memalukan lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Mikey1cyc
Mikey1cyc | Joined since 2022-09-24


This account has been banned for violating the Terms and Conditions of Use or Community Standards of this portal.
Investing Experience -
Risk Profile -
Followers

0

Following

0

Blog Posts

0

Threads

1

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
1
Past 30 days
1
Past 7 days
1
Today
1


Mikey1cyc

Haha Paling tak guna is Ularcacing ke.. talking trash only. No facts and figures.
Now Ularcacing tukar kulit ke.. Ularcacing tukar ID to SnakeSawa ke.. Cannot hide Ularcacing AKA SnakeSawa smelly smell. We otb gang will beatUp SnakeSawa or whatever Ularcacing IDs.
Kasi hentam mereka kaw kaw Sifu Otb and your geng. I support you Sifu Otb.
Sifu Otb and Otb geng must hentam sama MM, Ularcacing, sharemarket, qqq222, Jerichomy etc.
SnakeSawa, I challenge you to ask your friends monks to chant daily vulgarities written here by whoever writers they are to get the effects of all written vulgarities to happen to them and their families members. You know why I challenge you to do that? Because I don’t write vulgarities here. I am not scared. SnakeSawa please accept my challenge to your monks friends at your temple. Haha

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 20:24 | Report Abuse

using the below figures, one can determine that 90% of the hedging is done on gasoline.

HY was simply brilliant to capture the excellent margin of Diesel from market while had protected them self from downside slide on gasoline margin

...........

say x is the fraction of Gasoline that is hedged out of total barrels y , and ( 1 - x) is the faction of Diesel hedged, being the two major refined products


the change in liabilities between 31/12/2021 and 31/03/2022 is (339 - 187) = 152 million must be contributed by:

(Fraction of Gasoline hedged) * (change in crack spread of gasoline) * (total barrels of all products hedged) + (Fraction of Diesel hedged) * (change in crack spread of Diesel) * (total barrels of all products hedged)

x* (14.84 - 11.21)*y + (1-x)*(33.17-11.70)*y = 152 million...(1)

same way, the change in liabilities between 31/12/2021 and 30/06/2022 is (1751 - 187) = 1564 million must be contributed by:

x* (31.57 - 11.21)*y + (1-x)*(56.12-11.70)*y = 1564 million...(2)


Using Equation (1) & (2), you can determine x, and it comes to 0.90, i.e 90% of the barrels hedged are gasoline.



..........

31/12/2021
Gasoil crack spread: USD 11.703
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 10.456
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 280,487,000
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)

31/03/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)

30/0620/22
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 20:24 | Report Abuse

one should use net liabilities on above derivation, but it still yields approximately same results

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 20:24 | Report Abuse

Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis

(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter)
.........................

Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 39/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 29/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 39) + (0.07 x 29) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (17.9 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 23.2 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (23.2 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 558 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 558
= 798 million MYR

PBT = 718 million
PAT = 545 million
EPS = 1.81

Posted by probability > 2022-09-25 20:29 | Report Abuse

In 2017, the OIL PRICE was consistently below 52 USD/brl, but why did the margin improve and deliver exceptional earnings?

what matters is the CONSTRAINT ON THE REFINING CAPACITY not the oil price

thats why Diesel margin is spiking....

Lower oil price will drive demand for gasoline too later as more light vehicle owners decides to drive to work....

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 20:34 | Report Abuse

Ez divvy next week leh. You move your goal post kah. If want to move dont promised leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


MoneyMakers

Not surprised oil drop below usd80 - war almost over

Dont be surprised see HY crash rm3 nxt few weeks

11 minutes ago

Posted by harold8990 > 2022-09-25 20:44 | Report Abuse

See if can pancing at 3.8-4

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-25 21:28 | Report Abuse

Be careful what you wish for...........

Posted by Sslee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse
qqq3,
Once Hibby break below 90 sens, I will do some support.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-25 22:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-25 22:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-25 22:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 22:52 | Report Abuse

Media helping Shark to con retailers lah. You dunno meh. Haiyoh. Correct?


qqq3333

for 2 years, according to media, there is shortage of chips.........................now, some chips prices drop by 90%.............see what happens to those who buy Intel or TSMC at the peak la.

1 hour ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 22:53 | Report Abuse

It will rise back again but need to find the bottom first. Hope 4.20 not pecah leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

qqq3333

hy will sleep like hiaptek ays

3 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 22:58 | Report Abuse

Next week is critical week as ex divvy will remove 10sen from the share price. If follow last friday price 4.34 then the price is 4.24 ex divvy liao leh. Left 4sen to go only leh. Promoters sekalian need to work harder leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 23:00 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh Cafe Boss macai still working OT kah. Cursing and Swearing wont help leh. Be genuine sikit jadi promoters show your facts and figures leh. TP pun belum kira lagi kah. When can ask your Boss kasi TP leh. Haiyoh. Boleh?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 23:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 23:29 | Report Abuse

HY made a range of rm30 to rm909 mil per annum leh. But give dividend 16sen so far. Mana the money pergi. Still ada 1.5bil debt leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 23:34 | Report Abuse

2017 909.22 mil
2018 30.84mil
2019 34.98mil
2020 250.98mil
2021 82.67mil
2022 3Qtrs 714.94mil

Dividend payout 16sen only 48mil from 2018 to 2022.

Very kiamsiap leh.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-25 23:41 | Report Abuse

Mana all the money earned so far worth more than 2 bil gone. Debt pun increased lagi from 2017 till last QR. Mana the money. Anyone can explain where is the money. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by yamitsu > 2022-09-25 23:55 | Report Abuse

过去第二季度业绩创klse历史记录盈利 eps 2.22，未来两个业绩如果平均可以eps 1.0，那全年可以做到4.38。

裂解价差到目前还是保持着不错价位，很好

对冲只是降低风险保护利润，在3,4,5,6月原油期货平均在120-125价位，这几个月份需求量大同时在原料高价自然做对冲保护的合约比较多，7,8,9 月 原油在85- 110 价位，原油平均118-98=20。

fed 在5,6,7,9月涨息，为了是降低通胀，也是在原油高价位期间做对冲是利好的，4,5,6月 美元在4.2-4.4 。6,7,8月 在4.4-4.58。

欧洲能源危机，现在刚进入秋天，制裁俄原油冬天接近开始。

股价在3.80-7.5 0，4.34 -3.80=（12.44%,） 4.34-7.50=（72.8%）

大市悲观，经济衰退，市场非理性，油气是刚需产品，生活还是必须继续，车还是继续跑，厂继续跳，必须乐观在悲观找机会。

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-26 08:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-26 09:07 | Report Abuse

4.20 pecah!

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-26 09:08 | Report Abuse

OMG 4.20 support broken liao. Habis liao lah. Takda big player mau support kah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-09-26 09:10 | Report Abuse

Expected and lets see if there is any quick small rebound. Hopefully someone able to get the price you always wanted. Next looking forward to 4.13 or to where it belongs.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-26 09:11 | Report Abuse

Ada chance lagi. Ada supporters lagi. Mau tahan 4.20 lagi kah. Promoters sekalian support the 4.20 leh. Nanti pecah very ugly leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-26 09:13 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh rm 5.00 rm6.00 all kalam kabut to buy. The facts and figures cakap one. Now 4.20 facts and figures cakap can buy. Then why pecah 4.20 leh. Must support mah. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-26 09:15 | Report Abuse

No support then how. Cafe Boss mau send more macai keluar lagi kah. Cakap already dont send macai macai keluar disturbing the forum mah. Now you see no buyers want to buy lah. Ular kena jadi part time promoter again. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-26 09:16 | Report Abuse

Lelong price lelong price. Siapa mau kaya raya support lah sikit at 4.20. if pecah ular punya range nanti very ugly lah. Haiyoh. Boleh?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-26 09:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-26 09:24 | Report Abuse

Woi you boss lost many million kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Snake1Sawa

Lelong price lelong price. Siapa mau kaya raya support lah sikit at 4.20. if pecah ular punya range nanti very ugly lah. Haiyoh. Boleh? Siapa mau support mau cari mati kah. Ular tak ada tangan nak tangkap pisau jatuh ni. Banyak gangsters oottbb geng sini. Mau matikah support ini? Correct?

1 minute ago

Posted by TanDavid88 > 2022-09-26 09:30 |

Post removed.Why?