Posted by probability > 2022-10-07 22:50 | Report Abuse

30/09/2022
...........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652

change in mogas92 spread between Q2 & Q1: 16.733
Change in net asset in OCI between Q2 & Q1:
[(1.751-0.261)-(0.339-0.045)] = 1.196 billion

change in mogas92 spread between Q3 & Q2: - 29.926
Thus, change in net asset between Q3 & Q2:

[(1.751-0.261) - (0.339-0.045)]*(29.926/16.733)
= 1.196*(29.926/16.733)
= 2.14 billion change (equivalent to RM 7)

OCI net asset in Q3 will be: (1.49 Billion) + 2.14 Billion
= 650 million

NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum in Q3

Posted by probability > 2022-10-07 22:52 | Report Abuse

Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 45/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel alone

= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (45 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 1027 million MYR ....


PBT = 947 million
PAT = 720 million
EPS = 2.40

..............

today's Diesel crack spread: 55 USD/brl

Expect Monday reading to be even higher...

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-10-07 23:51 | Report Abuse

Monday will remain the same price due to off day.

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-10-08 00:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 8 hours ago | Report Abuse
can HY realize all their hedging instruments on refining margin swap, e.g for gasoline in order to realize whatever gain they can make now due to present crack spread, in a single quarter instead of using it for hedging purpose distributed along with the physical market transaction, if they wish to do so?

If I understand you question correctly, it’s simple. Since the contracts were entered via OTC over-the-counter market, they can unwind their position by entering into the opposite direction of their existing refining margin swap contract (new contract) with another counterparty to square off their position. Traders/speculators usually did it. However, it is unlikely for HRC to do so as I personally do not see any commercial benefit at all. What comes around goes around. They can stop entering new contracts but not unwinding the existing contracts as it can be costly.

Unrealised loss on cost of hedging reserve will never be realised and hence, do not expect HRC can realise when they are in a gain position. Once unwind, their business is no longer being protected. It may expose them to greater volatility in the P&L.

By hedging, you will see erosion in the profit margin of HRC is delaying when spot refining margin is trending downward and vice versa. Due to this, at least now we know that the profitability for the next 3 months is intact due to hedging.

Cost of hedging reserve is mainly attributable to the widening gap between the spot and the forward contracted rate. If the gap is narrowed, amount shown in the cost of hedging reserve will also be narrowed, be it gain or loss, and it’s a non-cash item.

I mean, is it legally/based on audit requirement, acceptable to do so?

The only way is to enter into opposite direction of the contract (a new contract) to unwind. Nothing wrong from doing that but I see no commercial benefit in doing so.

HRC has been consistently applying its hedging strategy for many years and I didn’t observe any speculative behaviours at least for the past 3 years.

If they apply it selectively, their numbers will longer be predictable and I will be the one who is pulling out.

Posted by probability > 2022-10-08 00:28 | Report Abuse

ok thanks for the explanation Rabbit2..

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-10-08 00:44 |

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Posted by Fundamental Trader > 2022-10-08 05:42 | Report Abuse

Investors can avoid PE trap by looking at Hengyuan's past 4Q's total FCF which is negative with erratic performance, so go look at HARVEST instead.

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-10-08 07:41 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 07:52 | Report Abuse

You like this post very irresponsible leh. At least pun tulis lah details sikit mah. You threw a bomb at here without tulis the facts n igures and you promote harvest lagi leh. You meaning apa ni. Haiyoh. Correct?


Fundamental Trader

Investors can avoid PE trap by looking at Hengyuan's past 4Q's total FCF which is negative with erratic performance, so go look at HARVEST instead.

2 hours ago

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 08:19 | Report Abuse

Sifu OTB sudah cutwin when peak time mah. Bought back at lower price if still ada holding pun not much losses leh. Haiyoh. Correct?



Jerichomy

Karma for otb this time haha

5 seconds ago

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 09:08 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh why suddenly so angry throwing tantrum in the forum kah. Slow slow talk dont talk too fast leh. No one know who post removed why you leh. Cannot say is Sifu OTB punya kerja leh. You no proof also leh. If Sifu OTB punya friend ke macai ke or subscriber ke student ke punya kerja ke. You cannot cakap is Sifu OTB punya kerja leh. Unfair leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 09:13 | Report Abuse

Not bootlicker leh. Defending their sifu is nothing wrong also leh. Ular pun will do the same if someone like MM the coklat bad mouthed ular punya sifu leh. Sifu sharing only pun kena bully by the MM coklat sampai sifu pun gave up no more sharing leh. Understandable sikit lah. Once sifu forever sifu leh. You takda sifu you dunno one lah Haiyoh. Correct?



BobAxelrod

And so many other boot lickers and azzzz kissers here...why so afraid of this muther fcu ker???? You owe him money???

8 minutes ago

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-10-08 09:25 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 10:19 | Report Abuse

Haiyoh slow slow talk leh. Dont drag ular into your dispute with Sifu OTB and his freindly subscribers leh. Ular takda kisses anyone bontot leh. Ular is the referee mah. You talk like Ular also Sifu OTB macai ini macam leh. Ini macam ular very sad leh. You really know Ular so well. Really. Then you cakap Ular own by who lah. So far ular has been very low profile leh. You know ular so well. Possible or not. Dont angry time pun kutuk ular leh. Ular sudah cakap mah. Ular lepaking with all in the forum leh. Tak kira they friendly or not friendly one leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


BobAxelrod

There is no doubt about how I all my posts were REMOVED yesterday....even Non-abusive and harmless ones.....right after the CB Ooi sent his dog and I attacked back...
I told Ooi to go eat a dick....and the removal started....

No need to kiss asssss snake! I also know who you are and who OWNS you.

We have CLOSED all our accounts.....I have 10 days to fcuk these bustards. Nothing more to lose.

49 minutes ago

Posted by $$ BUYSELL $$ > 2022-10-08 10:20 | Report Abuse

monday no wet pant because it is holiday seem dow jones down 630 points last night.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 10:25 | Report Abuse

Anything thing ular selalu cakap one. If you want to lepak in the forum you cannot too harsh leh. Even you are offended by someone or trolled by someone. You just lepak with them lah. Then you cannot say you are very sad someone post removed why you and you claimed someone that not friendly towards you are the one post removed why you leh. You ada check with admin or not. If ada Admin confirmed chopped the one post removed why you or not. If takda you only can suspect but you cannot insist they are the culprits leh. Same as the one always aka aka Ular those lapsap ID ular pun dinno siapa mereka also leh. They only can suspect but cannot confirm it also leh. Let them aka aka aka lah. Ular pun tak kisah sangat mah. Thats why itu Pot Mike John Chew Cyacing always think he is correct padahal he also teka teki only takda proof mah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 10:31 | Report Abuse

Another thing to share lah. Ini pun ular selalu cakap one. If you want to follow sifu sifu any buycall ctrs. Whether theyvare really full of potential or not. You can follow also but you cannot earn more than your sifu leh. Your sifu do all the research and burn midnite oil and you apa pun takda buat and you just follow only leh. So you cannot so greedy want to earn more than your sifu leh. Later kena lightning strike leh. Understand or not. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by OTB > 2022-10-08 10:31 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 10:33 | Report Abuse

The best is when you want to judi. After beli saham you pray TiGong popi popi you can cutwin lah. This is what Ular been doing lah. Yesterday after beli Angmoh StockGod Buffolo ctr ular forgot to pai pai TiGong popi popi so ended up paper loss lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by OTB > 2022-10-08 10:36 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 11:02 | Report Abuse

Excuse me. This is what you know ular so well kah. Apa lah. Ular punya sifu not a remisier for 30yrs leh. Ular punya 30 yrs in OnG leh. Know alot of OnG big shot leh. Know HY since shell time leh. Never ask anyone to hold HY leh. He cakap HY is good for trading only leh. You ada salah or not. Lagi cakap know ular so well. Haiyoh. Correct?


Posted by BobAxelrod > 19 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Ular, your sifu with 30 years experience as Remisier can tell his customers to hold HY for 12 years since Chinese petroleum might overtaken Shell in 12 years???

Where are your brains? I thought you were smarter than this????

He had given you tips before and now you owe him your life???? Cannot be repaid????

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-08 11:06 | Report Abuse

If you dunno ular punya sifu is siapa. Pls consult MM the coklat leh. He know very well pasal he bullied Ular punya sifu leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by OTB > 2022-10-08 11:35 |

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