Posted by Sslee > 2022-10-28 11:44 | Report Abuse

I am shocked the kenangan IB analyst equate Petronm as pure refinery play and totally discount the petronm petrol stations earning contribution.

Initiate coverage with MARKET PERFORM, and TP of RM4.65 – pegged to 5x PER on FY23F EPS, in line with average valuations of its closest peer HENGYUAN. Our ascribed valuation is also broadly in line with some of its other listed refinery peers globally (e.g. TOA Oil, Phillips 66, HF Sinclair, Valero, Marathon Petroleum). Note that our TP has taken into account our in-house ESG rating of two stars, which warrants a 5% discount to our initial valuations.

Should have applied sum of parts valuation for refinery contribution and retail petrol stations retail contribution.

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-10-28 11:44 | Report Abuse

Yeah..hedging means tie up hands and legs...where got hedging means eat from both sides

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 11:44 | Report Abuse

Talking about Insas. Did Sifu OTB ever buy this ctr b4 kah. If remember correct Sifu OTB ada mentioned about Insas b4 right. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-10-28 11:48 | Report Abuse

Hahaha
Crack spread high time they say hedging loss
Negative crack they don’t say hedging gains
Oklah hy is poor man stock
So we need JJPTR to save us

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-10-28 11:50 | Report Abuse

Ular please don’t mention that name….. later no peace at here

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-10-28 11:53 | Report Abuse

Sentimen yg baik kerana berita ni saya rasa

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2022/10/27/shell-posts-us6-7bil-net-profit-in-q3-on-stronger-prices/

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-10-28 11:58 | Report Abuse

Sslee....the analysts community don't like petron...they have given their reasons. They want petrol stations they buy Petronas dagangan

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 11:59 | Report Abuse

Why cannot mention Sifu OTB name. The word not banned by I3 leh. Haiyoh. Correct?


kebling98

Ular please don’t mention that name….. later no peace at here

7 minutes ago

Posted by Sslee > 2022-10-28 12:01 | Report Abuse

The best part according to probability are:
1.Hengyuan enjoy the diesel and jetfuel crack spread margin to the full.
2. At the sametime the negative mogas crack spread is covered by mogas crack margin hedged at USD 12 per barrel.
3. Q3 marked to market outstanding refining margin/mogas swap contracts should become hundred of million in derivatives assets.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:06 | Report Abuse

Shell profit from refinery ada breakdown figures or not. report tulis Shell refinery margin turun leh. Haiyoh. Correct?



The latest profit was however far less compared with its second-quarter net income totalling US$18 billion.

Shell alerted the market on the comparison earlier this month, blaming the drop on a slump in refining margins.


IshraaqNor

Sentimen yg baik kerana berita ni saya rasa

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2022/10/27/shell-posts-us6-7bil-net-profit-in-q3-on-stronger-prices/

10 minutes ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:11 | Report Abuse

Shell tulis refining margin down. Assume HY refining margin also down lah. You all cakap Hedging will have papergain right. So one side drop one side up right. So net is down also kah. So rm2.00 EPS as many said HY will get one possible or not. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-10-28 12:13 | Report Abuse

I m hy supporter but I don’t believe probability statements loh
He magnifying the positive part, minimise the bad factor.
Q3 is good but not as good as he claimed loh

Posted by Sslee > 2022-10-28 12:13 | Report Abuse

HRC running at full capacity whereas Glove run at maybe 50% so whose products are in demand?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:15 | Report Abuse

Assume you all like Shell so much. Then we use shell as a reference lah. Shell profit down from 18bil to 7.6bil. Then kira drop 57.8%. Then HY EPS 222let say also drop 57.8% lah. then can only get EPS 93sen leh. Like this HY can fly or not. Haiyoh. Boleh?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:17 | Report Abuse

Thats why you TP EPS 90sen only lah. In line with Shell report leh. Hiayoh. Correct?


kebling98

I m hy supporter but I don’t believe probability statements loh
He magnifying the positive part, minimise the bad factor.
Q3 is good but not as good as he claimed loh

3 minutes ago

Posted by Sslee > 2022-10-28 12:18 | Report Abuse

Sorry ular,
I mean world refineries are running at almost full capacity.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-10-28 12:21 | Report Abuse

Shell formula yah
The formula provided will be reviewed quarterly and typically updated annually, reflecting any changes in our refining portfolio.

Calculation formula ($/bbl) - note that brackets indicate a negative sign

Brent*(29.0%) + MSW*(11.5%) + LLS*(16.0%) + Dubai*(33.5%) + Urals CIF EU*(7.5%) + NWE Naphtha (RDAM FOB Barge)*9.5% + NWE Mogas premium unleaded*13.0% + NWE Kero*12.0% + NWE AGO*27% + NWE Benzene*1% + Sing Fueloil 380 cst*7.5% + USGC Normal Butane*3.5% + USGC LS No 2 Gasoil*8.0% + USGC Natural Gas*(2.0%) +TTF Natural Gas*(1%)+ USGC CBOB*14.5% + RINS*(22.0%) + NWE Propylene Platts*1% – $0.92/bbl

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-10-28 12:22 | Report Abuse

Gross refining unit margin is defined as the hydrocarbon margin net of purchased/sold utilities, additives and relevant freight costs, divided by crude and feedstock intake in barrels. It is only applicable to the impact of market pricing on refining business performance, excluding trading margin.

Actual historical indicative margins based on the 2021 indicative margin formula are available on the Refining & Trading page in the Quarterly Data Book.

Q3 2022: $15.03/bbl

Q2 2022: $28.04/bbl

Q1 2022: $10.23/bbl

Q4 2021: $6.55/bbl

Q3 2021: $5.70/bbl

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-10-28 12:25 | Report Abuse

Sslee, the test is in the eating. If 50% can make money from share price then 50% is good.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:29 | Report Abuse

Good leh. You ada do homework leh. So 28.04 for Q2 2022 and 15.03 for Q3 2022. drop 46.4% leh. So assume HY also same then EPS 222 drop 46.4% laso lah. Then can only get 119 sen. So can accept this figure. Still short from 200sen EPS leh. Ini macam below expectation leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

kebling98

Gross refining unit margin is defined as the hydrocarbon margin net of purchased/sold utilities, additives and relevant freight costs, divided by crude and feedstock intake in barrels. It is only applicable to the impact of market pricing on refining business performance, excluding trading margin.

Actual historical indicative margins based on the 2021 indicative margin formula are available on the Refining & Trading page in the Quarterly Data Book.

Q3 2022: $15.03/bbl

Q2 2022: $28.04/bbl

Q1 2022: $10.23/bbl

Q4 2021: $6.55/bbl

Q3 2021: $5.70/bbl

6 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:31 | Report Abuse

You changed from history will repeat toyou dunno can huat or not kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Q3 2022 result
EPS = 2.00 is good enough for Hengyuan.
Cumulative EPS for 3 quarters will be = 2.38+2.00 = 4.38.
No stock listed in KLSE has this type EPS.
The share price of Hengyuan is very undervalued.

Can huat or not, I do not know.
I know FA of Hengyuan is damn good.

11 seconds ago

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-10-28 12:33 | Report Abuse

Talk what also no use...if 2022 eps is $ 2 then pe 5 the share is $10 share....but it is not. This is because good above the line is lousy below the line

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:35 | Report Abuse

So we all assume EPS 119sen, What will be HY PE then. 59.93 + 15.82 + 222 + 119 = 416.75 sen

current price 4.20 PE = 420 / 416.75 = 1.01 only leh.

PE = 1.50-2.0 still ada 50% margin leh.


Correct?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:38 | Report Abuse

Walao you all waiting for what leh. Millionaires pun takda sapu saham kah. Increase your HY saham in your portfolio lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Permutation > 2022-10-28 12:38 | Report Abuse

I agree with probability's analysis of Q3 EPS of >RM2. In fact Q4 should also be v good.
We have a month to go to see the real thing.

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 12:41 | Report Abuse

Wei 119 sen is enuf leh. No need super high EPS also mah. Ada 50% margin lagi you can sapu more saham leh. You dare or not. Sapu more lah. Agree with others and must ada action also leh. Beli more saham lah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Permutation

I agree with probability's analysis of Q3 EPS of >RM2. In fact Q4 should also be v good.
We have a month to go to see the real thing.

1 minute ago

Posted by Sslee > 2022-10-28 12:42 | Report Abuse

Q3 EPS shoold be good, I am more interest to look into:
Q3 marked to market outstanding refining margin/mogas swap contracts should become hundred of million in derivatives assets.

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-10-28 12:44 | Report Abuse

Yahloh , we have hedging gains lagi lei

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-10-28 12:46 | Report Abuse

Millionaire go buy gloves loh
Only poor man buy hy lah

Posted by kebling98 > 2022-10-28 13:05 | Report Abuse

46% of hy product is diesel lei
Shell produce much less than this level lei
Shell also import russia oil lei but only 7.5%
Hy at least 16%lah
Hy should have higher margin lah

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-10-28 13:29 | Report Abuse

U think bull market meh? Bull market, quarter profits x 4 x 10.... Now bear market, for hy it is normalised annual profit x 5 meaning market assumes full year normalised profits is 80 sen....taking into account above and below the line....I think this is what it is and market has valued it accurately at 4

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 13:32 | Report Abuse

Someone posted Shell very good result leh. So cannot take shell as comparison. Then use what company for comparison. So many good one also cannot make HY price up kah. Dont tell Ular HY mati pucuk kah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Posted by kebling98 > 23 minutes ago | Report Abuse

46% of hy product is diesel lei
Shell produce much less than this level lei
Shell also import russia oil lei but only 7.5%
Hy at least 16%lah
Hy should have higher margin lah

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 13:33 | Report Abuse

Ok 119sen someone cakap not enuf. Then you cakap 93sen only leh. Apa lagi lu mau lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-10-28 13:36 | Report Abuse

any thing above $4 is premium, speculative premium. ...how much speculative premium u want for this kind of stock?

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 13:38 | Report Abuse

Someone want history to repeat. Above rm10 if possible. Haiyoh. Boleh?


brightsmart

any thing above $4 is premium, speculative premium. ...how much speculative premium u want for this kind of stock?

43 seconds ago

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-10-28 13:38 | Report Abuse

SINGAPORE -Oil prices fell on Friday after China, the world's top crude oil importer, widened its COVID-19 curbs, but were poised for a weekly gain on supply concerns ahead of Europe's pending cut-off of Russian imports.

Brent crude futures eased 78 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to $96.18 a barrel at 0350 GMT, after rising 1.3 per cent in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1, or 1.1 per cent, at $88.08 a barrel.

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-10-28 13:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by John Lu > 2022-10-28 13:42 | Report Abuse

Hang Seng big drop now, drop to 52 weeks low. Better sell.

Posted by brightsmart > 2022-10-28 13:45 | Report Abuse

koon bee minus koon means the batang become useless already.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-10-28 14:17 | Report Abuse

HY price could fall below RM4.00??........not possible.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-10-28 14:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-10-28 14:20 | Report Abuse

That's an affirmative......grows every morning.

Posted by tehka > 2022-10-28 14:21 | Report Abuse

veru beautiful green

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-10-28 14:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cactus81 > 2022-10-28 14:49 | Report Abuse

I think eps q2 will be better than q3. However, NTA q3 will be much higher than q2.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-10-28 15:10 | Report Abuse

You have all the strong positive elements to push the share price higher recently but failed to materialise. Get ready when it turned the other way round.

Posted by John Lu > 2022-10-28 15:17 | Report Abuse

Hang Seng big drop now, drop to 52 weeks low. Better sell.