For timber stocks, AmInvestment Bank observed that Ta Ann and Jaya Tiasa have fallen between six per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, over the past one month.
“While it has partly to do with declining log prices from a high of US$270 per cubmc metre last year, investors also feared an election result that could jeopardise their timber concessions,” it added.
Ta Ann closed unchanged at RM4.74 per share, while Jaya Tiasa closed three sen lower at RM1.35 per share.
“To note, all of their timber concessions have expired and are being extended annually, pending the state’s decision on longer term plan to grant the timber players a longer concession period of 60 years.
“Though the degree of decline of log prices is still not clear ahead of the companies’ result announcement this month, it could be over 20 per cent from last year’s high, with the prices now averaging about US$220 to US$225 per cubic metre.”
Ta Ann has said it had already anticipated log prices to moderate in the beginning of the year but expected it to trend higher in the following months. Jaya Tiasa’s log prices are lower as a portion of its logs is sold in the domestic market.
“We maintain our hold call on Ta Ann, with a fair value of RM5.28 per share. A 1-for-5 bonus issue is pending,” it added. “Jaya Tiasa is still a buy, with a fair value of RM2.18 per cent share, as we continue to expect its fresh fruit bunch yield to recover, which will have a significantly impact on its palm oil division.”
Jaya Tiasa on track to achieve 900,000 tonnes FFB for FY16 May 14, 2016, Saturday Jonathan Wong jonathanwong@theborneopost.com Share this: KUCHING: Jaya Tiasa Bhd (Jaya Tiasa) announced the production of 75,559 tonnes of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) for April 2016.
AmInvestment Bank Bhd’s research arm (AmInvestment Research) enthused that this is positive, as it means that it is on track to meeting the research house’s annual FFB assumption of 900,000 tonnes, with only two months’ harvest remaining for the fiscal year ending June 2016 (FY16).
“It now only requires circa 79,000 tonnes per month for May and June to achieve our FFB yield assumption of 14.7 tonnes per mature hectare (ha),” it noted.
While April FFB data was in line, its 3QFY16 was seasonally low with a harvest of over 160,000 tonnes. However, it was a vast improvement of 42 per cent from the previous year’s corresponding quarter.
Rising CPO prices in 3QFY16, averaging RM2,495 per tonne, would have mitigated low FFB production’s impact on earnings. Jaya Tiasa achieved an average CPO price of an estimated roughly RM1,986 per tonne in 1HFY16 vs. RM2,068 per tonne a year earlier.
AmInvestment Research added that Jaya Tiasa’s 3QFY is traditionally the low harvest season before production picks up and peak in the following 1QFY. Our CPO price assumptions are at RM2,250 per tonne and RM2,300 per tonne for FY16F and FY17F, respectively.
“While FFB production in on the rise, log harvest has slowed, with the 10-month to April period showing an 18 per cent decline to circa 630,000 cubic meter – representing only 75 per cent of our total volume assumption for the full year.
“We understand from industry sources that log export prices have remained relatively strong, at circa US$220 per cubic meter in 3QFY16. We expect Jaya Tiasa to cut domestic sales and push for more exports, which garner better prices.
“We expect Jaya Tiasa’s log prices to average US$210 per cubic meter, and plywood prices to fall by five per cent on year,” it added.
For 3QFY16, the research house expect the timber division to remain profitable, while the oil palm division would be impacted by the low FFB yield.
“We reiterate that Jaya Tiasa continues to an FFB recovery play.”
Revenue came in at RM3.7 billion, which was 20.8% higher than its 2QFY15 revenue of RM3.07 billion, thanks to improved performance by its plantation processing operations, as a result of higher palm kernel selling prices and better sales volume from Europe and China for its manufacturing operations.
KUALA LUMPUR : Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd is benefiting from higher-than-expected plywood prices but log prices remain under pressure, says Affin Hwang Capital Research. The research house said on Thursday since late last year, the escalating tropical log costs and depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar has pushed India, a major buyer, to source for lower priced logs elsewhere. “We cut our average log price assumptions for Jaya Tiasa by about 2-8% for FY16-18 to US$215-220 per cubic meter to reflect lower market prices. On the other hand, we raise our plywood-price assumption by 14-16% for FY16-18 to US$510-525 per cubic meter. We believe Jaya Tiasa's plywood prices did not decline in tandem mainly due to its diversified end markets for plywood,” it said. The company's total log production for the first eight months of FY16 declined by 21.4% year-on-year to 506,557 cubic meters due to a labor shortage after the termination of its main contractor for logging activities since November 2014 and more stringent environmental safeguards, Affin Hwang said. As it is below expectations, the research house is cutting the company's total log production forecast by 9-10% to 739,680-772,800 cubic meters. “On the other hand, Jaya Tiasa's fresh fruit bunch (FFB) and crude palm oil (CPO) production are likely to keep rising as more oil palm estates mature. This, coupled with higher CPO averag selling price will likely help boost earnings from the plantation side,” it noted. Affin Hwang is maintaining its "Hold" recommendation for Jaya Tiasa's stock with a target price of RM1.54.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Ring
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Posted by Ring > 2016-05-11 13:20 | Report Abuse
Malaysia expects lower CPO yield in May and June
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/11/malaysia-expects-lower-cpo-yield-in-may-and-june/