there's many timeframe for technical.. if the longer time frame didn't giv hints, there's always shorter timeframe to confirm.. i can't follow u all who hv enormous fund to average down & down..
Yes CPO price is going up. But the production will be greatly affetced by the weather. Go to Bursa Malaysia and check the monthly production of Jtiasa. It has drop a lot from the previous quarter. Be careful higher CPO price doent mean higher profit if the production is dropping significantly. When CPO price is up because of the supply side and not the demand side there is nothing to shout about unless you want to trade this theme because of the El Nino. Remember the production will be down because of the EL Nino.
the best way to play the wether effect is buyig the CPO future directly not the compnies because you won't know how much it will affect it's profit. It could be lower from previous quarter because of lower production. El nino = lower harvest of palm oil but higher price.
we have to compare production by Year to Year same period.As kindly remember,There are a lot of Public holiday last few month.Which will affect the production.In other meaning,its production is seasonal
Production is seasonal agreed, comparatively oil price from 2000 to 3000 there is extra 1000 now d question is, what is their production cost n it range from 1500 to 2000. Anybody know their cost?
production price between 1300-1750. My boss use to be estate manager. He said when price are bad, plantation normally scale down on fertilizer as the it is one of the biggest operational cost. But when palm oil price increase, they will full swing on the fertilizer. It can quickly reap huge yield if the trees are 6th to 15 years old.
I roughly get this figure from Bursa ( correct me if I am not right ) and assuming this month production same as Feb 2016. Figure complied from Jan 2015. I do not own Jtiasa and not inteding to buy. Just layoing out the figure. I am vetting palm oil companies to look for some value buy. So far no luck yet.
Latest NewsCommodities Crude palm kernel oil hits five-year high on El Nino concerns By Reuters / Reuters | March 28, 2016 : 6:43 PM MYT
Translated by Google Translator: Translated by Google Translator:Pilih Bahasa▼KUALA LUMPUR (March 28): Crude palm kernel oil prices rose to the most in five years on Monday over concerns that lower output could tighten supplies in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest palm producer.
Assessment prices by Thomson Reuters showed prices reaching 5,406 ringgit (US$1,347) per tonne on Monday, rising by over 20% since the start of the month.
Production of palm kernel oil, like crude palm oil, is taking a hit from a crop damaging El Nino, with some traders estimating output to be lower than usual in March. The El Nino brings scorching heat and drought across Southeast Asia, impacting palm fruit yields in the world's top two growers Malaysia and Indonesia.
"Buyers are buying (palm kernel oil), as there are concerns over further tightness in kernel due to weaker crude palm oil supply," said Ivy Ng, plantations analyst at CIMB Investment Bank.
Rising prices of substitute coconut oil have also led to buyers switching over to kernel oil, said traders in Kuala Lumpur, supporting the surge in price levels.
The El Nino has also impacted the output of coconut oil in the Philippines, the world's top supplier of the commodity, leading to forecasts of an 11% drop in exports this year. This may boost demand for palm oil-based alternatives.
Further price rises could squeeze the margins of oleochemical manufacturers who buy palm kernel oil, as a raw material for use in commercial cooking and the manufacturing of chocolates and cosmetics.
An official at an oleochemicals producer who asked to remain unidentified said his plant had not yet been impacted by the spike in palm kernel oil prices, as they buy forward, but problems would arise if prices keep rising.
"I think this is temporary... But if this lasts for another one to two months then we'll have some problems," he said. "Consumers are not going to buy your oil at this price, they will use alternatives, unless the market completely moves up for all the oils to the next level."
whether anybody like or not like is inmaterial, young plant means low production , low production means low income , low income means , low dividend, low profit, low stock price, all you can do it to wait ,wait and wait few more years,at least
last year yield around 10% , the latest yield around 14% already improve a lot. Sarawak plantation industry yield around 17% only, Sabah yield more than 20%. jtiasa is a high growth plantation company bcoz its ffb still increase more than 20% this quarter...see bursa Malaysia each month production as compared to others like ioi now has negative ffb grow rate due to elnino....
jtiasa is enjoying high production and high cpo sale prices as compared to last year. jtiasa also enjoying high timber price now around 300 as compared to last quarter +-250. This factor can offset the weakening of usd. BETTER FINANCIAL RESULT akan diumumkan....hope useful
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
57,225 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-27 23:01 | Report Abuse
AlanGan
Jtiasa was Rm2.70 when CPO was Rm2,600 a ton
Now CPO already crossed Rm2.700 a ton
So Jtiasa going back to Rm2.70 is only a matter of time.
Just buy and forget!
After CPO Cross Rm3,000 a ton then you only SEE how much is Giant Treasure worth.