Posted by tuapuikia > 2016-04-27 13:57 | Report Abuse

bought?

Posted by jonatlau79 > 2016-05-13 08:24 | Report Abuse

Buy From RM2.00 - RM1.20 ... Then Collect Dividend ...

Posted by w0nd3r > 2016-08-15 12:02 | Report Abuse

Cam buy now?

Posted by Ah Ha > 2016-08-16 11:01 | Report Abuse

no... auto still die industry.. wait for next wave..

Posted by funkyway > 2016-09-27 15:38 | Report Abuse

So quiet this counter

Posted by hyi3 > 2016-09-30 12:17 | Report Abuse

Time to buy in.

Posted by wafu > 2016-12-11 23:10 | Report Abuse

can plunge down further, but will eventually go up

Posted by beso > 2017-01-09 12:58 | Report Abuse

cimb new tp 1.61 nia

Posted by wafu > 2017-01-12 16:03 | Report Abuse

everyday is another new low

Posted by Bullhunter > 2017-02-17 10:12 | Report Abuse

No new models to excite car buyers and losing out to competitors like honda

Posted by thinkndo > 2017-02-17 17:25 | Report Abuse

HUh...Unsure NIssan need to change most of the models' name....."Almera, Teana, Navara,....." sound weird.....like disease.....or form of virus...HAha...no offence to Nissan enthusiasts.......

Posted by vicky168 > 2017-02-22 09:32 | Report Abuse

Bought some at 1.72 yesterday, 1.68 is the lowest price since 2013. It will eventually go up once gain profit from overseas investment such as Vietnam & Myanmar etc...

Posted by 2721 > 2017-03-09 13:17 | Report Abuse

rm keep drop, stil can up so many today lolz

Posted by kuanhan79 > 2017-03-16 13:39 | Report Abuse

Waiting for your turn to go up and break 2!

Posted by alivetoinvest > 2017-03-20 16:06 | Report Abuse

So many seller. SELLLLLLLLL

Posted by ngyewchai76 > 2017-03-22 08:04 | Report Abuse

Dim outlook

Posted by alivetoinvest > 2017-03-30 17:41 | Report Abuse

Tan Chong should launch the Nissan Note in Malaysia? That would be something exciting.

Posted by Chua Zhi En > 2017-03-30 23:36 | Report Abuse

can buy?

Posted by Chua Zhi En > 2017-04-08 11:51 | Report Abuse

buy?

Posted by alivetoinvest > 2017-04-10 17:08 | Report Abuse

Sell

Posted by GreenTrade > 2017-04-22 18:05 | Report Abuse

It should go up soon.

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2017-05-04 18:25 | Report Abuse

quarters result increase..congrat..

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2017-05-04 18:29 | Report Abuse

ops..my mistake ..only increase yoy 5.07%

Posted by RKLee > 2017-05-05 08:20 | Report Abuse

What worry me is the sales. The sales seems like still being depressed.

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-05-05 10:42 | Report Abuse

We believe the domestic automotive sector will remain challenging as consumer appetite is still weak with the strict financing approval guidelines in the current economic environment.

The Group will continue to remain disciplined and maintain our focus on key priorities to ensure
sustainable financial position. Sales and marketing activities will be enhanced to maintain our
competitiveness in Malaysia. Overseas sales and distribution are expected to continue expanding in tandem with the robust economic growth in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar. However, as for Myanmar, its operations commenced production and sales activities in Q1 2017.

TChong has taken a smart move which is hedge the currency. Gain on derivative has helped them in this quarter result.

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2017-05-05 13:28 | Report Abuse

Losses still can be said increase.... = =

Posted by kuanhan79 > 2017-05-05 14:47 | Report Abuse

Useless counter unless you are willing to keep for years! At least, 3 years onwards...

Posted by MsfollowmeTeam > 2017-05-16 22:52 | Report Abuse

is making A come back 2

Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-06-07 07:19 | Report Abuse

From the above, we noted that there are many people with varied views as to whether to buy or sell TChong. As for me, I look at its management and Board, they are good and transparent, treating minority shareholders reasonably well. One such example is the privilege of being invited to TCM plant visit from 8.30 am. to 3.30 p.m. on 12 July 217. Thank you

Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-06-07 07:20 | Report Abuse

2017 July 12. Sorry for typo error

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-06-11 10:54 | Report Abuse

I got in at 1.82 on Thursday. Buying for long-term. At 0.42X B/V, this is considered cheap. If and when Tan Chong returns to profitability, it will eventually approach 1.0X B/V, and if the ROE can be sustained above 10% then it can possibly hit 1.2-1.4X B/V, which should mean at least a doubling or tripling of capital invested. The catch is...this may take 3-5 years to materialize. It's not a short game...it's a very long game indeed but with a good payoff potential.

Based on my risk analysis, I believe the downsides have been adequately priced in. I will top up more if the stock drops to 1.75, 1.68 etc (every 7 cents down) as long as the story hasn't changed. The few upside catalysts that will lead to a re-rating of the stock in the coming months and/or years are as follows:

1) New models launch. Tan Chong Motors has not brought in a single new model in 2017, and in 2016 they just brought in one or two minor facelifts. That means two new of almost zero updates, unlike its competitors such as Honda, Toyota and Mazda which have been actively launching brand new models here. In 2016, Tan Chong maintained that new models will be deferred to 2018. One highly rumored model is the Nissan Kicks, which should see good demand. The other is the Serena Hybrid facelift, also said to be highly sought after.

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-06-11 10:56 | Report Abuse

3) Stabilizing/strengthening Ringgit. In Q1 17, the Ringgit averaged RM4.43/USD, but in Q2 this has dropped to about RM4.35. This arguably means that the worst is over for the Ringgit as far as the FX with USD and JPY is concerned, and going forward there may even be a slight upwards/bullish bias for the Ringgit. Not to mention, Tan Chong would have been renegotiating cost of parts/models with Nissan Corp., which should also boost the bottomline.

4) Possibly taking over Mitsubishi distribution in Malaysia. Nissan bought a ~35% stake in Mitsubishi Motors in Japan last October. Now the entire group comprises of Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi. Tan Chong already distributes the former two in Malaysia, so its entirely possible they will take a stake in distributing Mitsubishi cars here to streamline operations and reduce costs for the R-N-M group.

5) Low base effect. Q1 2017 saw a very small volume of Nissan cars sold in Malaysia. Their marketshare was among the lowest seen in the past 5 years. Things have recovered in the following months. Inventories have been falling these past few quarters. When we get to next year, there will be a favorable bias when doing YoY comparisons due to the low base effect.

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-06-11 10:59 | Report Abuse

2) Refers to Indochina growth. But i3 keeps deleting the comment. Why can't I post it? I don't even use any vurgar words or talk about politics. Can't share as it keeps getting removed, sorry.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-06-12 01:23 | Report Abuse

Niki, im looking as well. But you're banking alot on hope and dreams when they are so many other companies out there that is doing well already and not fully priced in yet.

If im right, with the level of debts in australia, us, china, malaysia etc. We should be in for a recession soon. Whatever gains we have in the malaysian economy now is not due to real fundamentals, but because people feel optimistic and buy, and when people see people buy, they buy as well.

A recession is coming, debt levels is way higher than 2008. And when it comes, your turnaround play might take a very long time.

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-06-12 13:15 | Report Abuse

In that sense I disagree. It's not my job to predict a recession. Just buy and hold companies that WILL see a turnaround in a five year period. I do believe that Tchong fits the bill well.

Just my 2 cents. By the way if you ask me, I believe Malaysia's fundamentals will improve over the coming 3 years. 2017 Q1 GDP growth shows that we are in the beginning of such a process.

What other companies would you consider to be "safe" no-brainer investments for gains in a five year period? I believe Prlexus is one of them, Hevea is another. But I'm spreading my risk exposure in buying both "beaten down/fallen giants" and buying companies with "growth at reasonable price" such as Heveaboard. Both of course following the margin of safety concept, where you primary aim is to NOT lose money, rather than make money.

Posted by enid888 > 2017-06-30 00:52 | Report Abuse

Nikicheong, what is the growth story in Indochina that you want to talk abt? How abt their new model launching in Malaysia? I do not see any new model launched thus far this year.

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-07-05 20:44 | Report Abuse

Enid888, this is why these are UPSIDE POTENTIAL. You have to anticipate them. If you wait for it to be in the news, the share price would have reacted already.

Now, these are not a given. Which is why you must also do a risk analysis and establish a sufficient margin of safety.

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-07-08 13:31 | Report Abuse

Link: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/07/ram-tan-chong-motor-losses-to-persist-before-recovering-in-2018/

RAM downgrades Tan Chong outlook to negative, but reaffirm P1/A1 bond and corporate ratings.

Will be interesting if this results in a small sell-off on Monday. Anything below RM1.70 will be a nice buying opportunity and to top up for me (initial entry at RM1.82). Turnaround is not far off now, with a company like Tan Chong and its Nissan connections, it is hard to go wrong!

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-07-11 13:17 | Report Abuse

What a shame, not one soul sold yesterday! :(

Posted by geng59 > 2017-07-19 10:29 | Report Abuse

What's up with key directors buying for past few days but shares keep trending down? Appreciate some thoughts in this. Thanks

Posted by Cornerstone > 2017-07-19 10:51 | Report Abuse

hopeless stock...

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-07-19 22:08 | Report Abuse

"It is the darkest before dawn".

I got in at RM1.82...anyone who can buy in at RM1.75 should be even luckier!

It is in the deepest pits of hopelessness that hope emerges once more.

If you have studied Graham, Buffet and Lynch, then you know that this is a stock that screams "BUY". Of course, provided you have a long investment horizon and the patience and fortitude to believe in your picks.

Posted by thinkndo > 2017-07-20 16:48 | Report Abuse

Howerver, be alert...noticing that since end of 2014, has broken below RM4. Then after, achieving the lowest in every year. Hope this round is different and not going to repeat the same pattern..Huh.

Posted by Lau Choong Ling > 2017-07-27 13:12 | Report Abuse

If china cars not florish in Malaysia, possible

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-08-25 23:02 | Report Abuse

We might be headed into the RM1.50s soon...

Quarter report not pretty, but the substantial decline in inventories is a major positive.

Posted by Ohyea > 2017-10-04 08:12 | Report Abuse

Lol better buy media prima since both also fallin .. media got status quo .... tan chong on his own ... if Tey fail to boost the sales ... sooner later Nissan revoke their distribution rights ... then u all go Holland d

Posted by Ohyea > 2017-10-05 07:46 | Report Abuse

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/nissan-suspected-of-routinely-forging-inspection-documents-reports

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-11-01 20:54 | Report Abuse

Got more today @1.61. So I bought at 1.82, then 1.70, then 1.61. Avg price ~1.69.

Will keep topping up if it drops to the low 1.50s.

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-11-02 13:34 | Report Abuse

Victor, calm down.

1) Grab and Tan Chong are wholly unrelated. This has been said many times. Don't dream of anything happening.

2) Nissan Leaf is still too expensive. Do not expect any appreciable contribution from there.

However, look at this: https://paultan.org/2017/10/27/spied-2018-nissan-serena-seen-testing-in-malaysia/

Tan Chong needs to launch new models for Serena, X-Trail, Teana, Almera and Livina. This is where the high level impact will come from!

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-11-09 23:33 | Report Abuse

Not likely to be privatized, since Tan Chong does have major debt. Even then the credit rating is strong, since Tan Chong is publicly listed. If it is wanted to be taken private, the banks won't be too happy. Also Tan Chong's ownership is fragmented and no longer concentrated in a single person's hands (the family got many feuds, so hard to combine and get a controlling stake). Unlike Astro, which was mainly owned by one man and wasn't swimming in debt so relatively easy to take private then re-IPO when the market recovers.

In short, almost zero chance of being taken private or delisted. We are at the very bottom, if not darn near to it (~10% from the bottom). I.e. I see the absolute bottom being at ~RM1.42. Good buy!