✅ With UMW's loss-making oil and gas (O&G) assets out of the way, I believe the worst is over for the company. The diversified conglomerate, which has suffered two years of financial losses has already solidly turned the corner to profitability since FY18 (yet UMW share price back to 10 years low).
✅ UMW will focus on strengthening its three core business segments, namely automotive, equipment, and manufacturing and engineering (M&E), to drive growth. The main contribution was from automotive and the least is from M&E.
✅ Automotive segment - In partnership with Toyota, the company assembles and sells Toyota and Lexus cars. Besides, UMW is also Perodua's largest shareholder with a deep value stake of 38% ownership. According to the recent announcement, Perodua had recorded sales of 56,972 units (+11% YoY), bringing in 9MFY19 sales to 178,668 units (+6% YoY) driven by the all-new Perodua Myvi and the all-new Perodua ARUZ (25k bookings, 22.2k delivered). I believe UMW will continue to leverage on the growth of Perodua (Aruz, updated Axia and all-new Perodua D55L/Raize SUV).
✅ The new automotive plant (Bukit Raja Plant, BRP) is completed. Analysts are expecting Auto segment will grow at steady pace going forward as BRP almost hit the production capacity of 50k units/year with 80% utilisation rate and easily double the capacity with minimal capex requirement. In addition, analysts also expecting better margin from the cost savings derived from higher localisation rate in the all-new Vios and Yaris (previously 50% inputs can be sources locally, now 80%). It will help company to reduce foreign exchange risks and improve company's competitiveness in the long run as they can offer a much more lower selling price than its competitors.
✅ Aerospace/ M&E - UMW Aerospace has signed a 25 + 5 year agreement with Rolls-Royce Plc to manufacture and assemble fan cases for Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 and Trent 7000 aero engines, which power the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A330 neo aircrafts. Both Trent engines are the most advanced in aero engine technology, with increased fuel efficiency and noise reduction. UMW Aerospace is also the first Malaysian company to be a Tier 1 aerospace engine component manufacturer.
✅ The Rolls Royce Plant (RRP) in Serendah begins to turn profitable. According to management, UMW is ramping up production and starting contributing meaningful profits in FY20 when it reaches full capacity. The RRP has a capacity of 250 units per annum and is producing fan cases for the Trent 1000 engine. Further, production of Trent 7000 fan cases will be commenced in 2HFY20. According to one source, UMW will deliver 3-4 fan cases to Rolls Royce Factory in Seletar, Singapore every week. I believe UMW Aerospace unit will contribute positively in FY20 when it ramps up to 70%/90% utilisation rates (or 175 fans/ 225 cases) in 2020/ 2021.
✅ Equipment - Demand for equipment (mining, construction and logging) remains sluggish in the near term, given the slowdown of domestic as well as regional economic activity. The management also expects outlook for Equipment division to remain subdued in the near term on the back of sluggish demand from manufacturing, mining and logging sectors. However, the Group believes the division’s growth will be underpinned by revival of few mega projects by Malaysian government, stellar demand from Singapore and Papua New Guinea, as well as expansion of product line-up in Vietnam.
✅ Automotive players to ride on stronger ringgit. UMW will benefit from the weaker US dollar as a bulk of their input and operational costs are in US dollar. Weakened RM will increase the effective input costs for imported CBU cars, CKD packs and raw materials, and subsequently affect OEMs’ margins. OEMs that have major exposure towards USD include Toyota (UMW) and Nissan (TCM), while for JPY this includes Honda (DRB) and Mazda (BAuto).
✅ According to 2018 Annual Report, Top 3 largest shareholders are Amanah Saham Bumiputera (40.81%), Employees Provident Fund Board (8.64%) and Permodalan Nasional Berhad (7.74). Throughout the whole 2019 and the last 5 years, ASB, KWSP and PNB is still on accumulation mode.
✅ I was anticipating UMW will fly high due to its last 3 year historical price pattern (2017-2019 January, share price tend to mark up), its higher than expected contribution from the aerospace segment, a strong rebound in Toyota sales and higher associate (Perodua) contribution, pick-up in construction and mining activities which would spur equipment sales, strengthening of the ringgit and the drying up of selling pressure.
❗️Disclaimers: Stock recommendations and comments presented on this channel are purely for education purposes. All participants should do your own due diligence before performing any decision. Thus, All trading strategies are used at your own risk.
Actually all already bought at high price with no cut loss strategy. Most are holding between 4-8 after averaging. Average long term investor cost is min of 6 ringgit.
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ABSBOSS
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Posted by ABSBOSS > 2019-10-22 15:17 | Report Abuse
C20 lowest 4 cent expiry june 2020 boleh simpan ni