Posted by free2invest > 2018-01-06 14:50 | Report Abuse

Stock markets party time now will benefit TA Enterprise.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/01/06/bursa-and-ringgit-on-a-high-fbm-klci-moves-higher-past-1800-mark-while-ringgit-breaches-rm4-level/

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-06 19:12 | Report Abuse

the lows for the day are getter higher, try to q for 64.5 sen, cannot get

Posted by newbie_2017 > 2018-01-07 05:07 | Report Abuse

sifus stock market drop in Q4 2017 except CI ctrs how TA can gain?

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-07 12:01 | Report Abuse

Let make it simple,

TA dividend policy is 40% to 60% of net profit.

Net profit 2017
Q1= RM83,217,000
Q2= RM70,894,000
Q3= RM78,850,000
Q4= RM77,000,000 - This is based on first 9 months net profit average forecast.

Scenario 1,
Take conservative 40% of net profit RM309,961,000, TA will pay RM123,984,400 as a dividend to shareholder next year.

Dividend per share = Total dividends paid out / Number of shares
Dividend per share = RM123,984,400 / 1,711,909,630 units
= RM0.072

TA closing price = RM0.65

Dividend Yield = Dividend per share / Price per share
Dividend Yield = RM0.072/RM0.65
= 11%

How if i am wrong? Ok, never mind, let say TA Q4 net profit is RM0

Scenario 2,
Take conservative 40% of net profit RM232,961,000, TA will pay RM93,184,400 as a dividend to shareholder next year.

Dividend per share = Total dividends paid out / Number of shares
Dividend per share = RM93,184,400 / 1,711,909,630 units
= RM0.054

TA closing price = RM0.65

Dividend Yield = Dividend per share / Price per share
Dividend Yield = RM0.054/RM0.65
= 8.3%

It tell you that,
If you buy 10,000 units TA shares @ RM0.65 = RM6500 now, you will get dividend RM720 if company declare RM0.072 dividend per share, which translate to dividend yield of 11%
OR
If you buy 10,000 units TA shares @ RM0.65 = RM6500 now, you will get dividend RM540 if company declare RM0.054 dividend per share, which translate to dividend yield of 8.3%


Scenario 1
Earnings per share (EPS) = Net income / numbers of shares
= RM309,961,000 / 1,711,909,630 units.
= RM0.18

PE ratio = Price / EPS
= RM0.65 / RM0.18
= 3.61x
= That mean 3.61 years can get back my capital investment

Scenario 2
Earnings per share (EPS) = Net income / numbers of shares
= RM232,961,000 / 1,711,909,630 units.
= RM0.13

PE ratio = Price / EPS
= RM0.65 / RM0.13
= 5x
= That mean 5 years can get back my capital investment

If all above forecast come true, RM1.00 above is achievable within 5 months from now.

Scenario 1,
Target price: RM1.44
Still have 121% upside from current price RM0.65

RM1.44 is based on forward PE ratio = 8

Let say Ta share price is RM1.44, it still got dividend yield of 5%.

Dividend yield = Dividend per share / Price per share
Dividend yield = RM0.072 / RM1.44
= 5%

Scenario 2,
Target price: RM1.04
Still have 60% upside from current price RM0.65

RM1.04 is based on forward PE ratio = 8

Let say Ta share price is RM1.04, it still got dividend yield of 5%.

Dividend yield = Dividend per share / Price per share
Dividend yield = RM0.054 / RM1.04
= 5%

Posted by free2invest > 2018-01-07 12:41 | Report Abuse

@villa1668, your analysis is very detailed. Thanks for sharing.

Can you share with us how many shares you have in ta entry?

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-07 14:11 | Report Abuse

@free2invest, thanks for the compliments:) Just hope everyone can understandy easily.
I am holding nearly 500k units now. How about you?

Posted by Seek > 2018-01-07 14:23 | Report Abuse

Villa, is it possible that to avoid draining cash Ta surprise us with impairment for q4?

Posted by free2invest > 2018-01-07 16:16 | Report Abuse

@villa1668, I have 30k only.

Posted by free2invest > 2018-01-07 16:25 | Report Abuse

@Seek, how can there be impairment? You need to understand the business nature of TA. All their business activities are in full stream and contribute a lot profit, how can there be impairment?

I think talk you like wasting gas or you just speculate and hope it will drop, so that you can buy cheap.

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-07 17:04 | Report Abuse

@Seek, i don't know whether this thing will happen, that why i wrote scenario 2.

What is asset impairments? Let make it simple again.

On Jan 1, 2013, i purchased a property in KL for RM500,000 for rental income. Its estimated useful life at that date was 20 years and I uses straight line depreciation method. On Dec 31, 2017, government embarked on a plan to build a plastic factory or burial ground near my near thereby decreasing the value of my property.

I estimated that i can sell the property for RM250,000 but it has to incur costs of RM5,000. Alternatively, i can continues to use it the present value of the net cash flows the property will help in generating is RM300,000

The basic rule is to recognize impairment if carrying amouts exceeds the recoverable amout.

First, we need to determine the carrying amount. Ther property has a cost of RM500,000, useful life of 20 years and is used for 5 years so far. This means that accumulated depreciation is RM500,000/20 x 5 years = RM125,000. Carrying amount is RM500,000 minus RM125,000, equal to RM375,000.

Second, we need to determine the recoverable amount. The recoverable amount is the fair value (amount for which the item could be sold) or value in use (cash flow generated), whichever is higher. Fair market value minus costs to sell in this scenario is RM250,000 minus RM5,000, equal to RM245,000. Value in use is the present value of future cash flows which amounts to RM300,000. Recoverable amounts is the higher of RM245,000 and RM300,000.

Carrying amount is RM375,000 while recoverable amount is RM300,000. An impairment loss of RM75,000 is to be recognized.

Posted by Seek > 2018-01-07 17:23 | Report Abuse

Tqvm Villa. Holding Ta for few yrs alrd. Followed Tony when he bought back lots of Ta shares then. Hope to get good dividend this year!

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-07 18:33 | Report Abuse

Market sentiment is getting better, it benefits TA a lot.

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-07 19:19 | Report Abuse

Tq villa for v. clear explanations Was t dividend policy followed in prev. Year ?, thks !

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-07 22:59 | Report Abuse

noted tht for fin. yr 2016, eps = 6.59 sen , gross dividen is 1.70 declared

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 08:59 | Report Abuse

Number of shares : 1,711,909,630

Net profit attributable to equity holders of the parent
Dec 2016 - RM112,845,000
Dec 2015 - RM 2,286,000
Jan 2015 - RM113,379,000
Jan 2014 - RM137,379,000
Jan 2013 - RM 82,329,000

Final dividend of x sen per ordinary share
Dec 2016 - 1.70
Dec 2015 - 0.40
Jan 2015 - 1.80
Jan 2014 - 2.80
Jan 2013 - 1.80

Let conservative again.
Let say TA net profit in Q4 is RM0. Full year profit will be RM232,961,000( equal to first 9 months). This is still the highest within 5 years. Assuming TA declare final dividend 2.80 per ordinary share (i use the highest within 5 years).

Total dividends payout 2017 as per below:
0.028 x 1,711,909,603 : RM47,933,469

Dividend per share = Total dividends paid out / Number of shares
Dividend per share = RM47,933,469 / 1,711,909,630 units
= RM0.028

TA closing price = RM0.65

Dividend Yield = Dividend per share / Price per share
Dividend Yield = RM0.028/RM0.65
= 4.3%

Dividend yield 4.3% is still attractive compared to fixed deposit. I hope everyone can understand and benefit from it with my simple explanation.

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 09:04 | Report Abuse

After reading my explanation, do you feel want to buy or sell with current price?

Posted by Bruse > 2018-01-08 09:20 | Report Abuse

BUY !!!

Posted by Lele > 2018-01-08 09:26 | Report Abuse

But after ex dividend date the price will normally go down. If u sell now you can get more than 10% profit margin leh. Then you can get monthly interest from bank. If price down again you can buy it back. Which want is better ?????

Posted by luckypunting > 2018-01-08 09:27 | Report Abuse

Wow! Gapped up opening today!

Only took 4 days and longer uptrend is formed, it is still very early stage of the long leg! :D

Posted by luckypunting > 2018-01-08 09:31 | Report Abuse

If trend go like this, can hit pass 1.00 in coming weeks, great capital gain! :D

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 09:37 | Report Abuse

We buy based on the facts, not because of the price suddenly surge and simply sell it. High can go higher.

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 09:38 | Report Abuse

great start on Monday !

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 09:41 | Report Abuse

Lousy stock, we need to follow the trends already. Good fundamental stock, why we need to against it?

Posted by starhock > 2018-01-08 09:46 | Report Abuse

lele, you going to miss this round! it is going to fly.

Posted by luckypunting > 2018-01-08 09:53 | Report Abuse

@Seek, below is the cash position of TA in last 3 years (RM '000):

2013/14 (revised financial year) = 183,527
2015 = 323,430
2016 = 655,098

Base on 2017 qr, ytd cash = 615,253

There was higher interest paid and repayment borrowing this year. Hope the coming gearing will reduce further....

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 09:58 | Report Abuse

Posted by Lele > Jan 8, 2018 09:26 AM | Report Abuse

But after ex dividend date the price will normally go down. If u sell now you can get more than 10% profit margin leh. Then you can get monthly interest from bank. If price down again you can buy it back. Which want is better ?????

actually, most difficult factor in BURSA INVESTING GAME is ourself, yes, we our our own hindrance to excel in shares, not outside factors.


once u make a decision to sell n wait for lower to backup, very difficult to reverse the decision one

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 10:02 | Report Abuse

looks like from now on, its up,down,, up down to tp.

no more straight line up like from 85-1.00, normal loh !

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 10:04 | Report Abuse

wrong posting ! sori eh !

Posted by luckypunting > 2018-01-08 10:10 | Report Abuse

@Bystander123, which counter eh? Pls share. :p

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 10:13 | Report Abuse

ALCOM mah ! cannot compare to TA one, but just coming out frm 6 mths downtrend, got new mgmt , going for second revenue front in industrial property dev.,, safer option for some

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 10:14 | Report Abuse

esp. the contra players

Posted by Lele > 2018-01-08 10:16 | Report Abuse

Unless there have some very very..... good news is coming. If not the price will not up to RM1.00.

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 10:23 | Report Abuse

looks like big brother give chance to battle scarred heros, to dip their toes into the water, to give some confidence to enter n make money, its 2018 no more 2017 mah !

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 10:23 | Report Abuse

haiz ! sori !!

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 10:29 | Report Abuse

Target break RM0.70 this week first.

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 15:14 | Report Abuse

yes, looks like will close on a high note

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 15:27 | Report Abuse

Kenanga up 4.39%, what is that mean? Market sentiment is become better, we should not against the market.

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 15:39 | Report Abuse

The journey to RM1.00 above is the process of working through each step to arrive at the next one. You will hear some people say the price will drop, better sell it now, switch to other stocks, etc. This things happen in everywhere, and we are unable to stop it. Profit taking is normal in the stock market. The person want to sell, just sell it. What i know is as long as the company is doing well & have good potential outlook, i will hold it.

Posted by dudu > 2018-01-08 15:41 | Report Abuse

http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=37688&extra=

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 15:41 | Report Abuse

lows of the day for 4/1, 5/1,8/1 are : 62.5, 64.5, 65.5

cannot get back if sell now, more profitable wait for tp

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 15:46 | Report Abuse

Malaysia stock market have been lagging other countries many years. Everyone expects Malaysia market will catch up this year. Who are the winners? TA is one of them.

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 15:48 | Report Abuse

Dudu, thank you for the research. It is interesting, i like it a lot.

Posted by dudu > 2018-01-08 16:01 | Report Abuse

This coming Q4 results sure profit. Dividend if less than dividend policy, can complaint SC. Next coming Q1 2018 still profit as land sales make RM 231 million net profit. No doubt !!

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 16:07 | Report Abuse

wah ! aftr 4 pm, buy by the 100,000 shares one

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 16:08 | Report Abuse

kenanga up 6% already

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 16:08 | Report Abuse

TA wont lose face one ....

Posted by villa1668 > 2018-01-08 16:23 | Report Abuse

U can queue to buy last time, but if u do the same time, hard to match.

Posted by Bystander123 > 2018-01-08 16:42 | Report Abuse

big brother here v pro, 4.40 pm only move

Posted by invest turtle > 2018-01-08 17:01 | Report Abuse

Low PE. Kyy will buy this stock soon.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-01-08 17:09 | Report Abuse

dudu, got english version?

can't read chinese. thanks