Posted by Minagrace > 2020-11-13 10:45 | Report Abuse

Good job, first plantation stock to break September high.

Posted by ethan > 2020-11-13 11:02 | Report Abuse

@101st_airborne, i strongly believe it will > RM1.6x based on the current momentum and volume (Weekly volume is the top compare past 3 years). It's first resistance will be RM1.53 and i believe it can break it today. Then it will try to challenge the next resistance of RM1.6x.

There are few major catalyst, increase dividend payout soon, acquisition of palm oil estate complete soon that will contribute 10% more FFB, and ongoing strong demand for CPO due to bad weather, soybean oil surge and crude oil surge, plus coming fantastic quarter report release by Dec.

Just be patient and collect the gems.

Posted by 101st_airborne > 2020-11-13 15:01 | Report Abuse

ethan, i have looked at the CPO chart, it is climbing up without resistance meaning that it will still go up. I have reached the target sell price for my shares but with the cpo price soaring, i will still the lots.

Posted by ethan > 2020-11-13 16:57 | Report Abuse

@101st_airborne, you may still keep for a while. Myself only bet is KMLOONG, so i unload 20%, then rest of it wait for the pullback next week. I believe it can break into RM1.60 by early next week, and consolidate a while before it move higher.

Posted by Ravin Cheema > 2020-11-13 20:57 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/india-imported-half-million-tonnes-palm-oil-malaysia-october

Posted by newbie2y > 2020-11-16 22:07 | Report Abuse

from IOI Qr, "Crude palm oil (“CPO”) price has increased sharply, reaching a 8-year high in November this year. CPO price is expected to remain high – more than RM3,000 a ton until February 2021, due to low palm oil inventory and seasonal low crop production until early next year, although its narrowing price discount against other competing vegetable oils and the coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere will dampen its demand."

Posted by Dakewlest > 2020-11-17 15:59 | Report Abuse

Furthermore, Maybank IB is anticipating a strong recovery in palm oil output next year.

Posted by Dakewlest > 2020-11-17 16:04 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/11/13/tight-supply-set-to-support-cpo-price?utm_source=smt&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BNL_November_17&utm_content=third_article+&__sta=vhg.hhksexov0sj_foj%7CTBVI&__stm_medium=email&__stm_source=smartech

Posted by Ravin Cheema > 2020-11-17 17:55 | Report Abuse

km loong should b having an excellent QR next month.... even fgv did well :)

Posted by chshzhd > 2020-11-20 23:44 | Report Abuse

cpo price rise rise rise .. but oil palm shares "dare not" to wake up:)
.. the volcano is going to explode :) 火山要爆发了：） gunung berapi akan meletup:)

Posted by newbie2y > 2020-11-26 21:22 | Report Abuse

two bullish engulfing pattern in a mth, lets see the next 1-2days how it goes..

Posted by ensome88 > 2020-11-29 11:04 | Report Abuse

Kmloong next qr sure meletup, and perhaps will announce special dividend..

Posted by daretocutandchange > 2020-11-29 12:09 | Report Abuse

km loong good management,huge cash rich company. oil mills as down stream sector,own plantation(up stream sector) areas 15826 hectares 83% are mature above 6 years old. be patient.......

Posted by ethan > 2020-12-01 00:39 | Report Abuse

come on, please break the new high and fly high as much possible.

Posted by Kensington > 2020-12-01 11:02 | Report Abuse

In view of the forthcoming good results, a special dividend announcement this coming Xmas cannot be ruled out. Even the major s/holders were accumulating shares through their nominees the past couple of months.

Posted by slts > 2020-12-02 05:41 | Report Abuse

cheapest n under value smallcap palm oil stocks

Posted by sausagex99 > 2020-12-02 06:18 | Report Abuse

Guys palm oil price up does not mean good for palm stock
Proce up bit demamd down

Posted by sausagex99 > 2020-12-02 06:18 | Report Abuse

But

Posted by joerakmo > 2020-12-02 09:21 | Report Abuse

slts: cheapest is INNO.(EV per hectare) Div policy 80%

Posted by slts > 2020-12-03 10:19 | Report Abuse

buy 3QR pat> 50m

Posted by slts > 2020-12-04 16:18 | Report Abuse

cpo price another rm10 hit 3400
buy now don wait

Posted by newbie2y > 2020-12-04 21:56 | Report Abuse

closed above MA10 line, looking forward to next week :)

Posted by slts > 2020-12-06 09:18 | Report Abuse

do u know kmloong is cash rich 33sen per share = solid fundamentals

short term funds 127m
cash 183m
no. of shares 935m
cash per share = 33sen
loan 12m

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-06 11:59 | Report Abuse

What does this cpo price trend below tell U leh ??

Date Settlement Price RM
3 Dec 20 3332
2 Dec 20 3316
1 Dec 20 3347
30 Nov 20 3305
27 Nov 20 3338
26 Nov 20 3227
25 Nov 20 3285
24 Nov 20 3249
23 Nov 20 3326
20 Nov 20 3288

Ans; Rising CPO price and Rising Profit loh!!

Until Sept latest qtr result cpo average is roughly rm 2600 mah!!

December QTR we will be seeing conservatively Average Price Rm 3200, that is 23% increase in price n this increase revenue will all goes to the bottom line profit as there are no cost applicable to revenue generated from price increase loh...!!

Just imagine if Average palm oil price is Rm 2800, U already see super strong profit loh!! But now we are at above 3500 loh...!!

Can U forecast & project what will palmoil company potential profit at rm 3500 cpo leh ?

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-12-06 12:12 | Report Abuse

Keyman188 still can recall...


During 2014, when CPO average price was 2780, Plantation index was around 9400 level...


But as per today, CPO average price is standing 3350, Plantation index only 7349 (as per Friday closing) level...


So any CPO expert can guide this naive Keyman188 why so much different ???...


Perhaps CPO price gradually increased but overall oil palm planter companies unable to deliver great performance results !!!......

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-06 12:44 | Report Abuse

The main usage for Soy Bean are as food for human & Pigs and the oil for cooking. It is therefore more economical compare to Oil Palm as it has dual purpose. So, market willing to pay higher price for Soy Bean compare to Soy Bean. Soya Bean food for human, Soya meals food for animals & soya oil {SOB} for cooking.

SOB 4th Dec is USD0.3841 per pound or RM0.3841x4 x 2.2x1000 = RM 3380 per MT. Which is lower than RM3502 for CPO on 3rd Dec.

SBO has been traditionally USD50-80 higher price than CPO.

But Since Nov 2020, CPO price overtook SBO by USD15/MT and now is higher by USD30. This happens could be few reasons,

1) Africa Swine Flu have killed many pigs. The main food for pigs are Soy Bean Meals. When number of pigs are low, the demand for Soy Bean also lower. Cause is not economical if just buy to press oil.

2) Market shortage of Soy Bean due to dry weather and Soy Bean Oil from the bean are very much lower % compare to Oil Palm, so, it will not be economical if purely press the Soy Bean just for the Oil but not to feed the pigs and human. So, the SBO become shortage.

3) The main exporter for Soy Bean is shortage of Soy Bean and have to import Soy Bean this year. When SBO shortage, price for SBO increase, CPO price also increase.

4) End November 2020 India reduces Taxes for CPO to 27.5% from 37.5%. This has increase the demand for CPO.

But, what ever reasons are. The most important good CPO price is good to Malaysia, good to Oil Palm planters, good for Oil Palm investors like us ..

Posted by lcng123 > 2020-12-07 09:19 | Report Abuse

With the current CPO price at RM3,500, the PE no longer at 20x, it was around 10x

Posted by slts > 2020-12-08 09:34 | Report Abuse

breakout

Posted by slts > 2020-12-09 09:01 | Report Abuse

today will try to do another breakout
hopefully successful

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-09 19:57 | Report Abuse

When result out this month, Raider see Rm 1.80 coming loh...!!

Just stay put loh!

Posted by ethan > 2020-12-10 22:12 | Report Abuse

Dec 2020 fcpo move to new high, time to break the new high and move all the way to RM2.00 ? Gogogog!!

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2020-12-10 22:13 | Report Abuse

100.00....coming

Posted by slts > 2020-12-14 14:22 | Report Abuse

q3 pat> 50m, jus buy. 1.65 resistant can be broken easily
q4 pat even better with asp 3k+

Posted by slts > 2020-12-18 05:53 | Report Abuse

have u consider higher cpo prices

Posted by ethan > 2020-12-18 17:48 | Report Abuse

@trader808, few points that you may have missed.

1. Plantation land acquisition that expected will increase total FFB and CPO production yield by 10%, which in progress to settle soon.
2. The contribution from the solar in mill that contribute additional income, which i think will increase and achieve better cost saving and revenue.

1Q EPS : 2.45
2Q EPS : 3.55
3Q EPS : between 4 - 5 (Forecast) (Factor in high CPO, but not post acquisition)
4Q EPS : between 4 - 5 (Forecast) (Factor in high CPO, but not post acquisition)

At the low side , total EPS for 4Q maybe 2.45+3.55+4.00+4.00 = 14 cents.
At the high side , total EPS for 4Q can be 2.45+3.55+5.00+5.00 = 16 cents.

Assuming the FAIR PE for KMLOONG is 15 due to its excellence yield and nett cash position and using low side EPS = it should worth RM2.10

Fair PE : 15 , EPS 14 cents, Price = RM2.10
Fair PE : 15 , EPS 16 cents, Price = RM2.40

Do not forget, it also has the nett cash position of about RM0.33 per share (at this moment, but i could be wrong). (Total share: 933,607,000, Current asset (Mostly cash , inventory and receivable): 398,679,000 , Current liability : 94,094,000 )

Formula : (current asset - current liability)/ Total share


Information from latest quarter release:
The Acquisitions are expected to be completed by the end of the year 2020 and management forecasts the FFB production for the financial year ending 31 January 2021 to be about 10% higher than the quantity achieved in the financial year 2020 after taking into consideration of the impending completion of the recent acquisition of landbank and the impact of ongoing replanting programme.

The management expects the milling operations to achieve 10% higher processing quantity as
compared to the financial year 2020. The performance of the milling operations will also be
supplemented by revenue of about RM6 million from supplying power to grid.

Based on past year records, the production of Fresh Fruit Bunches (“FFB”) from our mature estates is normally low during the second quarter of each year and will rise in the third quarter, peak in the fourth quarter and then slowly decline in the first quarter of the following year.

However, the Group’s FFB production for the current quarter had increased by 7,900 MT or 11% to 79,600 MT as compared to the preceding quarter. The increase in production was mainly on the
account of continual peak crop season started in the preceding quarter in the Group’s mature estates in Sabah where about 75% of the Group’s plantations are located.

Not a buy/sell call, but just to share more informed information.

Posted by trader808 > 2020-12-18 20:43 | Report Abuse

Thank you very much for the invaluable information. It is undeniable that kimloong is a well managed company with healthy balance sheet and strong net cash flow. Its plantation although very small only 15.3k hectares are well managed and efficient.
Kimloong actually derived most of its revenue from mill operation. I believe its OER is better than many other companies in the plantation industry.
I am not aware that it has a grid that hook up with the local authority that could bring in 6m revenue. In additional, It is hope that the high price of CPO trading above Rm3500/ mt will help to mitigate the slight fall in output and yield in the coming qtr announcement. I like kimloong and it has all the ingrediants of a value investing company. Over time its hard work and result and performance and true value will be reflected in the share price.

Posted by ethan > 2020-12-18 22:22 | Report Abuse

No problem. We share, learn and earn together.

for the OER, it is one of the best and above the national industry average.

In fact, check on quarter release on september, there are few key metrics that lead to the believe that coming quarter will be flying color one.

Page 8 of the quarter report, its CPO production (MT) is 82,260 with average selling price of RM2336. (for May, June, July).

However, the CPO production for (August, Sept ,and Oct ) = 24,610 + 25,254 +25,633 = 75947, which is about 8% drop from the May, June, July.

Source from MPOC suggest that the average of May, June, July = RM2335, which is as per listed in Kimloong Quarter release. So we use the same benchmark for August, Sept and Oct , it is RM2906.

For the CPO itself, for May, June , July (RM'000), it is 192,159 revenue, while for August, Sep, Oct (RM'000) is estimate of 220,702. This is about 15% increase of revenue on the CPO part only. So i believe the revenue increase for coming quarter will be +-3% of 15%.

So to make assumption of the breakeven cost of CPO with other income remain constant,

Revenue from milling = 231,651, profit = 32,042, so it is about 14%, backward tracing, we assume that the cost of milling per mt = RM2000

If the assumption is correct, mean coming quarter profit will be very impressive as RM2900 - RM2000 = Nett RM900 extra profit per mt CPO.

Well , if that's the case and other things remain constants, possible it's eps to be around 9 -11 eps

As i do this calculation in rush and might make wrong assumption, so reader to analyze yourself. If any mistake, appreciate the feedback and will make revision. I am still learning in investment.. cheers!

MPOC source: http://mpoc.org.my/monthly-palm-oil-trade-statistics-2020/

Posted by newbie2y > 2020-12-18 22:37 | Report Abuse

1 thing i like abt kmloong is the power generation with biogas, in the annual report, there will be upto 2.0 megawatt commencing 1H21, and another 1.5 pending authority finalisation...all these are additional recurring income :)

Posted by ooihk899 > 2020-12-18 22:56 | Report Abuse

ethan, Its not that straight forward. This is because the price of FFB purchased by them will increased too. So, the EPS will be lower than your estimation.

Posted by ethan > 2020-12-18 23:21 | Report Abuse

@ooihk899, yupe.i agree but so far they did consume and use back their own FFB, so there will be some consolidation in between. In fact, what i try to trying to put here is actually as a remarks to see how close my expectation versus the reality.

Oya.. thanks newbie2y for pointing out it is the biogas than solar that in return earn some 6 million in revenue.

Posted by newbie2y > 2020-12-25 15:17 | Report Abuse

cant wait for the qr in a few days time! cheers!

Posted by trader808 > 2020-12-28 19:40 | Report Abuse

3rd quarter result announcement is due today. Disappointingly it has not being announced yet.

Posted by ethan > 2020-12-29 00:25 | Report Abuse

Hope that today the company will release quarter result to see if it match my estimation. Seem a bit late for this quarter

Posted by ethan > 2020-12-29 17:29 | Report Abuse

too bad. My estimation seem too optimistic, but overall the performance is still impressive. Sigh, got to improve on prediction.

Posted by Ravin Cheema > 2020-12-29 17:31 | Report Abuse

Atleast got special dividend

Posted by newbie2y > 2020-12-29 19:02 | Report Abuse

cpo price above 3700, additional estates purchase by next qr, increased cash balances, and more importantly, management is willing to share profits with smallholders like us. thumbs!

Posted by trader808 > 2020-12-29 19:15 | Report Abuse

The company announced 28.8m profit. This is 109% better than last year corresponding figure, but 13.05% lower compare with the current year preceding quarter. Although the average selling price of Rm2865 /M/T is high, it is not enough to mitigate the huge fall in FFB and CPO output for the 3 months ending Oct 2020. KL has a very strong balance sheet and continues to generate huge cash flow. Considering the current 9 month financial performance and the CPO and FFB output for NOV month, I would envisage the whole year EPS to be around 12.5sen.
The fair value at various reasonably acceptable PE multiples are as follow.
PE 12X IS 150
PE 13X IS 162
PE14X IS 175.

All is not lost. In my opinion,the 3 sen special dividend would sustain the share price.

Posted by ethan > 2020-12-29 21:52 | Report Abuse

agree with trader808. the expected annualize EPS will be within 12cents to 13cents, as the high CPO price is offset by the huge fall of FFP and CPO output. Considering high CPO price, good dividend payout and prudent management, based on historical PE, i believe it deserve fair PE between 15 - 18, using forecasted annualize EPS 12.5

PE 15x = RM1.88
PE 16x = RM2.00
PE 17x = RM2.13
PE 18x = RM2.25

With consistent dividend payment for this fiscal year , (4 cents + 3 cents + 3 cents (forecast) ), i believe it is could be sustain PE of 15x or 16x.

Posted by KPH5328 > 2020-12-29 22:59 | Report Abuse

PBT for the current quarter was RM44.64 million which was 6% lower than RM47.27 million
achieved in the preceding quarter ended 31 July 2020. If the insurance compensation of RM7.62
million recognised in the preceding quarter was excluded, the PBT for the current quarter was 13% or RM4.99 million higher

Posted by bluelight > 2020-12-30 08:28 | Report Abuse

good company to invest