Malacca Security reiterate buy call , target price revised from RM1.74 to RM1.91 with target PE of 16. The PE range for mid cap plantation should be within PE range 14.5 to 17.5.
Trader808, great sharing. Indeed it happen all the time for those stock with many call warrant, like tnb, takaful etc. So trader808 hypothesis could be correct, and if we able to trade it factor in the risk, the reward could be very good for short period of time.
When the boss is buying in own share, and with FCPO future is at 3,919.00 for Feb 21, and 3,618.00 for March 21, strong believe that the price setback is just temporary.
Unlike IOI which has upstream and downstream industries, KM financial performance is quite straight forward. You can track it in advance with reasonable accuracy by monitoring its monthly output performance that has been announced in Bursa.
Here are the numbers
3Q 4Q % Diff FFB 68990 56355 (18.3% )
CPO 75497 56274 (25.4%)
PK 19187 12913 (32.6%)
profit 33.16 ???
KM will announce its 4Q result in march. Basing on these numbers, it is quite unlikely to match 3Q performance.
High CPO prices directly benefit plantation companies but share price laggard... look at suppliers of plantation companies, the agrochem companies such as Ancom and Hextar, all engine started and flying up!
Its share price should climb higher with higher earnings which would results in higher profit. Cash rich company with low debt and dishes out good dividend yield.
Q4 result holding back, request for extension for 1 month due to covid19 pandemic. Other company able to do meet dateline or even earlier. Unlike in this past Qtr result announced promptly. Keep the good practices to give confidence to investors to trust the company's management team
Looks like ESG is putting lot of weights on plantation stocks.
Obviously, US is playing on force labour issue to justify for their high premium price delta between soy oil and palm oil as we never see this force labour issues being so dramatize in the pass until lately; just like glove sector.
Sadly, many institutions and fund managers; including our local institutions are also singing along with this but neglecting the fact that: 1. Palm oil is the most efficient vegetable oil per hectare in the world. (8 times more efficient than soy oil, the major competitor for palm oil) 2. The recent published "Palm Oil - Global Market Trajectory & Analytics" report has indicated that palm oil market will be growing at 5% CAGR from 2020 to 2026. 3. Palm oil is most widely used vegetable oil ranging from all range of product in supermarkets due to its temperature stability. 4. Land used (allowed) for palm trees is plateauing with Malaysia limits at around 5.8 million Hectare and Indonesia at around 15 million hectare. 5. Climate change is not going away and there will continue to have volatile weather like extreme hot and dry weathers recently in Latin America and now in most of corn belt region in USA. These will seriously affecting the yield of soybeans and other vegetable oil such as corn and rapeseed as they are more sensitive to weather changes but not so for palm trees.
So, CPO price will continue to be at elevated level in the coming years as demand is growing and supply will be limited due to caps put up by both Malaysia and Indonesia governments on lands to be used for palm oil. As long as CPO price are at RM2200 and above, well managed plantations companies will be making profit.
Investing in plantation stocks needs a long term view that you just want to have better returns than your FD interest rate and relative stable capital fluctuations. So, good and consistent dividend yield shall be primary consideration and capital gain shall be secondary. At current price level, there are numbers of plantation stocks that gave you 7% to 9% dividend if you have bought it 10 months ago.
With this mindset, you will be able to slept at ease when you put your money in plantation stocks. :)
" CRAZY AMOUNT OF SHARES BOUGHT , " NON STOP BUYING ORDERS " another IJM Plantation --- T ENACIOUS S AMSON H ERCULES ( TSH )
sub total : number of TSH shares bought from 1 March 2021 to 1 September 2021 = 21,850 ,000 shares ( 21,850 lots X average prices RM 1.08 = RM 23,598,000.00 almost RM 23.6 millions onwards
A potential indicator of a stock’s future performance is the level of stock that insiders are buying. In this context, an insider is an employee of the company, usually, a high-level executive (e.g. CEO, CFO, COO) or it can be a hedge fund that is providing capital. Their access to non-public information puts more weight on their buying and selling decisions. With that in mind, it’s important to note that insiders may sell shares of stock for many reasons. However, they only buy for one reason.
That is, they believe that information is going to be released that will boost the stock price in the near future.
Or , the next step is to take the company into serious consideration for private exercise.
Let us endeavour to find the
REAL MOTIVES & OBJECTIVES OF THE TOP MANAGEMENT -
AT CHAIRMAN LEVEL -
KELVIN TAN AIK PEN ----
MASSIVE CONTINUOUS BUYING ORDERS
(FROM 1 MARCH 2021 TO 1 SEPTEMBER 2021 )
NOT MORE THAN 132 TRADING DAYS ON TSH SHARES .
sub total : number of TSH shares bought from
1 March 2021 to
1 September 2021 =
21,850 ,000 shares
( 21,850 lots X average prices RM 1.08 =
RM 23,598,000.00
almost RM 23.6 millions on wards
THERE ARE NO INSIDERS FROM OTHER COMPANIES BUYING SO MASSIVE SHARES IN THEIR COMPANIES IN KLSE.
Please note at this current time the KLSE market conditions are not favourable
in view of political uncertainties and
also the economic conditions , coupled with the cases of Covid -19
are on the increase thus creating poor sentiments in KLSE.
CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q.. KMLOONG's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 11.22 sen Est EPS Q4 21 is 5 sen FY21 EPS shall be 16.2 sen. Share price @ 4/1/22 $1.69 PE is( 169/16.2) = 10.4X % return on share price is (16.2/169 )=9.6% If dividend payout is 100% same as last year, DY is 9.6%
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ethan
60 posts
Posted by ethan > 2020-12-30 21:07 | Report Abuse
Malacca Security latest analysis:
我们重申“买入”评级,目标价从1.74令吉上调至1.91令吉,相等于明财年16倍本益比;一般中型种植股的本益比介于14.5倍至17.5倍。
Malacca Security reiterate buy call , target price revised from RM1.74 to RM1.91 with target PE of 16. The PE range for mid cap plantation should be within PE range 14.5 to 17.5.
Source: https://www.enanyang.my/%E8%A1%8C%E5%AE%B6%E8%AE%BA%E8%82%A1/%E3%80%90%E8%A1%8C%E5%AE%B6%E8%AE%BA%E8%82%A1%E8%A7%86%E9%A2%91%E3%80%91%E9%94%A6%E9%9A%86%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90-%E4%B8%A4%E5%B9%B4%E8%B4%A2%E6%B5%8B%E4%B8%8A%E8%B0%83