@choonyong. Property payment is indeed based on progress. But they can delay billing to decrease reported profit or expedite billing to increase reported profit. It takes a sharp-eyed auditor to spy this. But in Malaysia, the external auditors usually just cari makan and it's usually out of scope for the internal auditors unless there is fraud leading to actual losses for the company. Otherwise they also need to 'cari makan'.
Uptrend only start if it breaks 1.30. Confirmed if it breaks 1.40. Otherwise play KSL like hng33 is doing. But hng33 is experienced at playing corporate hit and run!
yea jusst play like hng33, when ksl low, you just keep saying collect collect. when it drop more, be quiet lor. then once a while said buy more, buy more. when it rebound back, said sell and earn few cents lor.
Dividend declared or otherwise historically had little effect on KSL shares. But reported quarterly profits have drastic effect on KSL's price. That's why KSL insider can profit immensely either by insider knowledge or better still, if they actually decide how much to report based on either billing or not billing 'unbilled' sales. In the past there is significant circumstantial evidence that KSL's share price was manipulated based on reporting of quarterly profits! Many KSL's investors were and still are spooked. They do not know how much profit is going to be reported next quarter. Visible evidence of profitability such as brisk sales of housing and overcrowded malls and hotels has little bearing on how much profit they will report in the quarter because they can arbitrarily decide whether to bill the sales or not!
They can do this with sale of properties (houses, condominiums), i.e. delay or expedite billing but not with hotel and mall income. That's why I said that the present KSL price has priced in the income from hotels and malls but seems to have priced out sales of properties!
play like hng33 can lose a lot commission if forecast wrong. I saw it in WCT before. What happen if KSL cannot drop anymore because RM 1.25 seem got strong buying support(from director?).
Maybe fake support from...! We will see. Don't worry if you lose a lot of commission so long as you net profit after minusing the comm and other charged. I played like hng33 in EG and made some money and was not caught when the price crashed.
@fyda74. No. Profit will only impact KSL price if reported quarterly profits based on income from operations is 1) more than last quarter and 2) more than corresponding quarter last year.
invest..dont see price..trust mgmt and company future, 1-2 quarter report cannot determine their future !!! you invest to a biz, please wait 2-5 years to bear fruits..not short term la..
@richkid1. You are right. Less risk with KSL. The only risk is what the bangsats will do. But risk still there. Real rock bottom may well be RM1-1.10, although CNY may lift it up for ang pow.
Absolute rock bottom is RM1.00 to 1.10. This is unless GST and rumours of terrorism severely affect the Mall and Hotel. If an actual terrorist incident occurs, all bets are off. If it falls to 70 sen. Take out your FD and buy - cheapest property cheap-sale in Malaysia - before the Chinese (China's Chinese) get into the act!
if coming last quarter eps got 5 sen, then total eps for 2015 got 26 sen... 40% dividend x 26 sen = 10.4 sen.. already gave 2 sen.. balance 8.4 sen must give at coming quarter. 0.084/1.24 x 100% =6.8% dy....
hng33. Very good point and thanks for the reminder. Therefore go by the charts and not by the trolls including KSL insider bangsats' 'support'! But you are hit and run trader. For this share, I'll still trade by the trend, which at present is still facing south!
@aunloke, i thought the dividend should all pay out within the financial year ended 31/12/15 which is coming quarter in next month February.. if pay in July 2016 then it should consider under the dividend of financial year ended 31/12/16.. am i correct or wrong? pls clarify .. thanks..
The management will declare the dividend payout in the coming quarter. However, the ex-date and payment date can be few months later. Nevertheless, the dividend still counted for FY 2015.
hng33. OK. For you all stocks are 'speculative'. Yours seems the safest way to trade any stock, provided one can catch the lows to buy and the highs to sell - which I must admit you are the master at!
@alexsee sorry for the late reply , your estimated 8.4 sen div. should be the final dividend for FY 2015 , it may not necessary be given on the next Q , I only assume that the X-date ( if ever the div. be given ) is in July, so if you can get 6.8% for a duration of 6 months it means that the yearly DY is 13.6%. Am I right ?
@119, thanks for clarification on the progress payment. If got chance, i will seek clarification with Mr Ku on coming AGM. If indeed, Corporate governance transparency need improve. To me, as a value investment practitioner, I am looking for much longer term and basically use the dividend for part of my retirement income. Corporate vision, strategy plan, executive capability, value is my consideration. I more concern on actual property sale progress rather than Qtr and Annual accounting figure. For JB projects, design of KSL shophouses reserve a huge space in front of the shop, it is high demand. Because of this, it attract me to look at KSL background and business model. For Condo, i understand that the margin at 50%. So, it break-even once 50% of units sold.
hng33, it seem you did very well on day trade or margin trade. i salute your skills. It may not suitable for anyone without good risk management, self discipline. It can be quite stressful and more sleepless night for old man. I still prefer invest as business, talk to people rather than look at the chart.
choonyong. Yeah, please raise those questions with KSL. My main point is manipulation of quarterly profits which are not audited. They have to catch up by the fourth quarter though, because the whole year's profit will be audited. But that's assuming that the external auditors are not just 'cari makan' auditors. In Malaysia, external auditors have very little power because they are effectively paid by the company's management and their continued employment is subjected to their recommendation to the shareholders at the AGM. Since management holds the majority share, their recommendation is effectively absolute.
I agree with you upsidedown119. Especially they have changed the previous auditor from EY to the current small medium firm. The bargaining power of the firm is much smaller.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
choonyong
26 posts
Posted by choonyong > 2016-01-15 16:25 | Report Abuse
Hope Mr Market will realise it value and rise like Padini, from RM1.30 to RM2.00..
Good Luck to All Shareholder.