Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-19 16:31 | Report Abuse

choonyong & steady88. Here are further analyses.

1) On Aug 16 2014, StarOnline reported that the Executive Chairman (EC) said its sales target for the year ended 13/12/2014 was RM1 billion and 75% of that already achieved. KSL's half year revenue was RM428 million with and net profit of RM140 million. NET profit margin at 32.7%. This means that there was RM572 million of sales and net profit of RM187 million from PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT were coming during the 2nd half year ending 31/12/2014. Add in the recurring income from Hotel and Mall of RM49 million and what the EC was effectively saying was that RM236 million NET profit was expected in the 2nd half year. That was why KSL's price sky-rocketed. But what was the actual result reported? The third quarter net result was RM70 million which INCLUDED RM22 million of Hotel and Mall income. The fourth quarter result, reported in Feb 2015, smacked of a suspicious repeat of the corresponding quarter reported in Feb 2014. Reported Net income for the quarter was RM130 million. But RM88 million was fair value adjustment i.e. asset revaluation of their Investment properties in Hotel and Mall (they are not allowed to revalue properties held for development because of tax implications). After deducting income from from Hotel and Mall of RM27 million, KSL net income from property development was only RM15 million as against expectations of RM93.5 million (187/2) based on the EC's statements to StarOnline. The total income from property development in the 6 months to 31/12/2014 amounted to RM63 million as against RM187 million based on EC's statement to StarOnline as reported on 16/8/2014. This massive discrepancy was what caused the massive sell-down in Feb 2015. But this did not explain the massive double sell-down in Dec 2014 which should have been cushioned by the generous 5 sen dividend which extends to new bonus 1 for 1 issue, both with ex-date end of Dec 2014!

2) So what's in IT for the KSL insider bangsats? Your guess is as good as mine!

3) The double whammy, in February 2014 and February 2015 are what make investors wary as the February 2016 reporting date nears. Would it be ang pow or holland for KSL's investors?!
19/01/2016 16:18

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-19 16:32 | Report Abuse

That was why I have been saying that KLSE should investigate KSL. The evidence are staring them in the face if they care to analyse. The sell-down and buy-back data are all in the KLSE system. All KLSE's Market Surveillance Unit need to do is to key in the selection criteria and the system will generate the reports for investigation i.e. if the KLSE's trading system is as good as some systems that I know. Such reports should be standard to the system. And share buy-back support is to support the share from speculation so that the share price reflects the fair value. KSL's share-buy-back (unlike Matrix's) did not do this. Why?! KSL share buy-back looks more like a sandiwara to me!

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-19 16:35 | Report Abuse

If it is KSL Klang Mall you are referring to, it is a work in progress and it's income is recurring and in cash and receivables. So it is harder to manipulate. It's the income from property development that is easier to manipulate quarter to quarter!

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-19 16:48 | Report Abuse

upsidedown199, great analysis & works done.

SC should investigate this kind of bullshit talks by the company's key man as their statements or views may have impact over the share price. Any incorrect or misleading statements should be taken serious actions.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-19 16:57 | Report Abuse

Following this stock but watching it going down from RM1.60+ to current price.

Be careful on the dividend promises made by the board as they did fail to deliver dividend promise 5 years ago.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-01-20 12:11 | Report Abuse

Sold back KSL at 1.25, realize transaction cost loss, free up capital first

Posted by red_85 > 2016-01-20 12:17 | Report Abuse

why scare hng33? 1.25 got director support la...

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-20 12:23 | Report Abuse

hng33 got very good instincts and discipline. I wish I've got more of that. His motto seems to be that if his stock do not rise within 3 trading days, he sells.

Posted by smartly > 2016-01-20 14:46 | Report Abuse

1.25 still looking good, why in such a hurry to run ?

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-20 14:59 | Report Abuse

hng33 does not want to risk being stuck!

Posted by smartly > 2016-01-20 15:10 | Report Abuse

1.25 vol extremely huge !

Posted by smartly > 2016-01-20 16:11 | Report Abuse

the selling of 1.25 is just too much...

Posted by smartly > 2016-01-20 16:37 | Report Abuse

nevertheless the support of 1.25 keep coming in. :)

Posted by Edward Wong > 2016-01-20 17:04 | Report Abuse

120 targeted...

Posted by steady88 > 2016-01-20 17:33 | Report Abuse

strong support @ 1.25. Possibly due to directors' support

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-20 17:34 | Report Abuse

Huge support at 1.25! I deleted some of my earlier posts because I do not want contribute to depressing the market. I feel the the market has already priced in what I have written earlier!

Posted by richkid1 > 2016-01-20 17:44 | Report Abuse

Over 800 counters down but KSL unchanged meaning coming QR could be good.

Posted by fyda74 > 2016-01-20 18:28 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4980033
good or bad? :P

Posted by smartly > 2016-01-20 18:30 | Report Abuse

nothing special. just normal infor.
1800 units just chicken feet.

Posted by fyda74 > 2016-01-20 18:38 | Report Abuse

Thanks, smartly :)

Posted by red_85 > 2016-01-20 22:11 | Report Abuse

i have switch more fund to here, as a safe parking place while still in the market..hehe..1.25 support well by Director and Boss....my source

Posted by smartly > 2016-01-21 12:03 | Report Abuse

today's selling force less. good sign.

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-21 15:34 | Report Abuse

ECB will most likely cause a massive short-squeeze today. I am done shorting (rigged markets) Going long.

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-21 17:13 | Report Abuse

nearly eliminated all exposure to all markets (only one company left in klse portfolio) . This can go both ways. I would rather stay on the sidelines for now.

Posted by fyda74 > 2016-01-21 17:41 | Report Abuse

seems like strong support at 1.25 :)

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-22 08:58 | Report Abuse

Whether the market goes up or down, the volatility will make it ideal for day trading. Just don't be the last one holding the hot potato.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-22 15:39 | Report Abuse

NOOb. What is your view of the impact of the coming revision of the budget on the KLSE?

Posted by savvy > 2016-01-23 21:01 | Report Abuse

next budget must be one that will spur public spending and encourage high impact projects. Infrastructure and property development have great multiplier effects...developers with good size and strategic landbank at lower cost will be first to benefit..the govt is still committed to providing housing for the masses and with GE 2018 nearer..no other government stimulus initiative is more effective than the property development..

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-26 10:50 | Report Abuse

Yeah. Hopefully there will be stimulus!

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-26 13:42 | Report Abuse

@Upsidedown119

I apologies for the late reply. I haven't really looked into the budget. For now my focus is more macro. Yet, any changes to the way Labuan is structured will be bad for big names on the market. (See Malaysian Satay)

briefly;

1- I expect the fed to fold tonight, which as you know will produce the same effect as the ECB. But at the same time, I cannot be sure maybe they will hike up again (unlikely but possible) .

2- Yuan will be devalued in the medium short term. Followed by what amounts to 15% devaluation through 2016. (almost guaranteed).


The way I see it: Participation in KLSE now is not advised as there is a lack of clarity. but if you must,

1- long term holding ("KSL", "Asiapac", maybe... "Fiamma") based on when you enter.

2- Short term calls (bullish outlook) on KLSE (FBMKLCI-C12 is the most "reasonably" priced call warrant at this time)

3- Short term puts (bearish outlook) (FBMKLCI-HN is the most "reasonably" priced at this time)

And if you really want to laugh... compare crude and brent futures prices. to the "OPEC basket"

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-26 15:46 | Report Abuse

I should add that if you foresee more QE coming in the next 1-6 months... FBMKLCI-C40 (Bid: 2.5 sen: value 0) is the option with the highest risk/highest return. HOWEVER, It's more like gambling at that point.

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-26 16:43 | Report Abuse

C3 is also a consideration, albeit it expires a month before C40

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-26 17:19 | Report Abuse

Thanks NOOb for your detailed forecast.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-27 11:15 | Report Abuse

Some people trying to break the 'peg' at 1.25.

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-27 13:14 | Report Abuse

Watching China play chess with the Fed.... 上屋抽梯

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-27 13:53 | Report Abuse

NOOb. But what is their interest in playing 'chess'. 'Chess' would imply competing interest, no?

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-27 14:11 | Report Abuse

In a nutshell, China and Russia have been demanding reforms in global affairs. IMF, UN, Security Council, etc. As of now, these supranational institutions are very skewed towards the west (competing interest as you put it). So, while on the surface it might seem economical factors, it is political factors that are driving the "markets" for "now".

Briefly? China is indirectly flexing muscles.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-27 15:56 | Report Abuse

NOOb. The US dollar, to my mind, is USA's most powerful economic weapon and related to it, the US's market. How then is China 'indirectly flexing muscles'? By threatening a Yuan devaluation?

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-27 17:04 | Report Abuse

@Upsidedown119,

Though it might be to lengthy for this medium, I can probably sum it up in a few hundred words, it will have to wait to another time though.


meanwhile: http://www.amazon.com/The-Death-Money-Collapse-International/dp/1591846706 <--- If you forgo all the doom and gloom conclusions in this book, you'll find that the research put into it really highlights the "competition" you referred to between The Fed and the PBOC.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-27 19:31 | Report Abuse

Thanks NOOb.

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-28 13:50 | Report Abuse

Budget is out, market needs a few hours to digest. No mention of any changes to Labuan,

Be aware; I see a big oil spike coming.

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-28 17:40 | Report Abuse

@NOOb. Big oil spike coming? Are you referring to production or price? With so much oil in the market, China slowing and Iran due to put at least 600K BPD into the market, a 'big oil spike' would likely be in output, not in price.

Posted by RVI123 > 2016-01-29 23:23 | Report Abuse

NOOb, it is probable that there will be a big spike in oil. NOOb, what is your reasonings?

Posted by upsidedown119 > 2016-01-30 22:57 | Report Abuse

Yeah NOOb, what is your reasoning?

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-31 03:33 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/N00b/90656.jsp <-- oil

Posted by yfchong > 2016-01-31 09:24 | Report Abuse

New project started ksl mall 2 in batting all the best folks who r holding thus counter

Posted by yfchong > 2016-01-31 09:24 | Report Abuse

Bandar bestari

Posted by N00b > 2016-01-31 16:15 | Report Abuse

Keep your eyes on this http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5115.jsp (Entry price is determined by you).

Posted by fyda74 > 2016-01-31 20:56 | Report Abuse

@yfchong, KSL City Mall 2 dah start piling? I read before Ptranas get this project and plan to start piling work on 1 Feb? :P Thanks for sharing ^.^

Posted by yfchong > 2016-01-31 21:37 | Report Abuse

Progess ada lah belum piling clearing oredi 3 excavators ada sana.......excess road siap.