The price of palm oil crossed 5,000 on 5/1/2022, the share prices of palm oil stocks started to move up north in the early February. 1 month delayed in timing.
Hope the share prices of steel stocks can move up north soon. Thank you.
“But we expect little impact as we have decided to switch supply sources to Brazil and Australia in the event of a crisis,” he said.
Still, any disruption in steel exports from Russia and Ukraine could bolster global steel prices as the two countries have a solid presence as exporters, Mori said.
For Nippon Steel, bigger export opportunities and higher steel prices could help boost its profits, but the conflict could also have a negative impact on the global economy, he said.
“We have to keep a close eye on the development as we don’t know which way it will swing,” Mori said.
Nippon Steel has forecast its business profit will jump to 800 billion yen ($6.98 billion) for the year to March 31, from 110 billion yen a year earlier, including 230 billion yen of appraisal gains on inventory.
Italian pig iron prices are expected to continue to increase significantly in the coming days, as a result of shortages. This comes as the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Odessa come under siege from the Russian military.
Because of pig iron shortages from the CIS, an Italian purchase of Brazilian pig iron was heard at the beginning of February. A distributor who buys directly from producers to replenish stocks at Marghera, the main Italian steel port, is said to have bought a large, 35,000-tonne Brazilian vessel at $540/tonne fob Brazil. Some limited Ukrainian and Russian pig iron tonnages of between 7,000t and 15,000t are being sold in Italy at $610-615/t cfr Italy, sources observe.
The war in Ukraine is expected to cause a substantial change in the way Italy procures pig iron. Now that Ukrainian material is surrounded by uncertainty, and sanctions on Russia become a reality, more Brazilian prig iron is expected to be sold into Italy. It remains unclear whether the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, now recognised by Russia, will return as a regular pig iron supplier after the EU banned trade with the breakaway regions.
The seaborne basic pig iron (BPI) market strengthened on fresh US and European bookings of Brazil- and CIS-origin material concluded at higher levels late last week, before the market was thrown into uncertainty by the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine culminating in Russian's invasion of Ukraine on Thursday.
CIS ........
The Argus fob Black Sea weekly price for Russian and Ukrainian BPI moved up to $575/t today, surging $30/t higher from 17 February, driven by sales done to Italy, Turkey and the US late last week.
A Ukrainian producer sold a combined tonnage of 10,000t to two traders in Italy - 5,000t to each - at an average price of $615/t cfr. The shipment is scheduled for early April. The deal price roughly equated to $570–575/t fob Black Sea as one of the buyers estimated a freight rate for the parcel at $40-45/t.
Another Ukrainian exporter traded a 15,000t dispatch to a Turkish steelmaker at $585/t fob, which was in line with the seller's latest offer targets. The delivery is planned for late March. Having finalised the sale, the exporter began to offer April shipment at $600/t fob.
A 30,000t cargo of Russian BPI was bought by a US trader at $615/t cfr, with the fob equivalent price estimated by market participants at around $575/t.
Following the trade, a large Russian steelmaker planned to enter the global BPI market with $630–640/t cfr offer targets of April shipment meant primarily for the US. But rising Russia-Ukraine tensions left the market bracing for potential sanctions against Russian business, and the steelmaker stepped back.
Brazil, US ...........
Brazilian BPI producers adopted a wait-and-see stance this week, with offer indications limited and expectations bullish.
The latest price for Brazilian material achieved in a concluded deal was $585/t cfr Nola as a large Brazilian exporter sold 35,000t of high-phosphorous BPI for April shipment to a US steel producer late last week. The deal netted back to around $550/t fob south Brazil.
Another 30,000t cargo containing Brazil-origin pig iron of various grades, including around 15,000t of BPI, was booked by a US trader as regular once-a-quarter business. The price for BPI within the deal was heard from $600/t to $615/t cfr but could not be conclusively confirmed.
Some market participants pointed to $580-600/t fob as possible levels for the next sales of Brazilian BPI if shipments from Russia and Ukraine are disrupted as expected.
The Argus weekly BPI fob south Brazil price assessment settled at $550-560/t today, up $7.50/t on average from last week. The fob north Brazil BPI assessment followed suit to rise to $560-565/t today, the same $7.50/t higher than the prior level.
The Argus weekly cfr Nola BPI assessment increased by an average of $30/t on a week earlier to stand at $585–590/t today, reflecting the new trades.
Asia .........
BPI values in Asia-Pacific rose over the past week, buoyed by stronger buying interest from Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Thailand, while China was broadly quiet with no indications heard in recent weeks.
All Asia-Pacific demand this week was covered by India-origin material. A prompt cargo of 15,000t was reported sold to Thailand at around $650/t cfr. A similar-sized parcel was heard traded to Taiwan at $635/t cfr, although final details could not be confirmed by the time Argus went to press.
In addition, a 20,000t cargo to Korea and a few small dispatches to Korea and Japan were heard to changed hands at $630–640/t cfr. All these indications were much higher than regional price ideas of around $595–600/t cfr heard last week.
I think it wont be too drastic but i expect this a long term effect as Russian wont easily give in and Europe & US will continue sanction till Ukraine is released.
It will turn drastic if China cant help Russia by buying these steel products Russia cant export (Ukraine facility will still be closed though). This is still high possibility considering SWIFT ban and that asian economy / construction activity will rise soon after the covid apparent end
Posted by cckiong > Feb 27, 2022 5:37 PM | Report Abuse
Dr stell do u think it will cause a drastic rise in steel price in Asia including malaysia and how long is the crunch will be
The one million dollar question in stock market is will hiaptek quarterly earning continue to grown in 2022, especially in china. Anyone wants to share his thought
Good forecast written by Annjoo On a positive note, steel demand recovery in China is expected to be bolstered by the country’s accelerated infrastructure spending and the relaxation of property loan restrictions to stabilise the property sector. The upcoming March-April construction peak period in China should also provide a stronger impetus for steel consumption momentum. China is also expected to continue to cap its steel output, thus moderating the risk of over-supply from the biggest steel producing country in the world. Of concern, however, is the relatively uncertain outlook for raw material and fuel costs, and potential downside risk to global steel consumption given prolonged supply chain disruptions and persistently high energy prices on the back of on-going US-China trade frictions and commencement of Russia-Ukraine war. The emergence of new COVID-19 variants, which prolongs the pandemic, adds uncertainty to steel demand recovery. Going forward, steel players are expected to report lower margins as a result of rising raw material and fuel costs, as well as elevated inflationary in general.
One ought to be cautious when majority have the same opinion and consensus. While the stock failed to react during the best global news sentiment, what if negative news set in from no where. That's how it hit AYS. When the positive and best news and information were published openly in website and accessed by many, there is nothing special about the stocks price direction. Think differently and act ahead of others if you have plan to invest. Make sure you get the best and lowest price. Make sure you make the profits from i3 investors or traders or anyone who is leading you to no where. Their loss is our gain.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
OTB
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Posted by OTB > 2022-02-26 23:23 | Report Abuse
The price of palm oil crossed 5,000 on 5/1/2022, the share prices of palm oil stocks started to move up north in the early February.
1 month delayed in timing.
Hope the share prices of steel stocks can move up north soon.
Thank you.