This is a company with a good and sustainable business as a manufacturer of iron and steel products. It had also expanded by getting an iron-mining concession in Terengganu. The price was going up steadily until mid-Feb when investors started selling due to concerns of dilution after the company's cash call made for its business expansion.
This slide, however, appears to have been checked. Investors know that it is a good buy to keep and speculators will also jump in. Hiap Teck's volume is high enough to help push the price to at least 70 sen in the next few weeks.
This are merely my predictions (and hopes), of course, so don't come looking for me with a club should they be wrong:-P However, I'm putting my money where my mouth is - going to buy some as early as this Monday.
I feel the downside risk is low and the potential of it reaching 80 sen in the next few months is reasonable to expect. Compared to its net tangible assets, 60.5 sen is a bargain. I'm going to divide my lots of it into two: sell half at 80 sen and keep the other half. This is one of the shares that I'm comfortable keeping for more than a year.
It is holding at around the current 60-something level. The market is a bit quiet now. I believe it will easily move up to 70 when interest picks up again. But whatever, and despite the always present possibility it will go down, I'd say the current price isn't a "sucker's price". I believe one can make money from Hiap Teck, BUT you must be willing to wait a bit.
Affected by the declining China PMI and BHP Billiton iron ore outlook comments. Ranging price and is a mid term holding stock. I beleive it will take some time till their blast furnace and iron ore in production.
Watch close to 29 March. There is an EGM coming up on 29 March to resolve on Power JV etc. Market price will have to be pushed up before the EGM to get the applause leading to the EGM. Watch the movment and hope can go above 70 sen again. Buy low and sell above 70 sen !
Oh dear, I was talking about JAKS and not Hiap Teck. JAKS is having this EGM and not Hiap Teck. Got it wrong. A thousand apology !! So watch JAKS on 29 March.
Its always better to be buying stocks with all those GMMA short term lines above the long term with the weekly long term lines pointing up. Right now its all pointing lower. Take care. Read some of Daryl Guppy's books.
Second Quarter report: Revenue 252,906; Profit 1,601; EPS 0.40 sen, which is low and some might interpret as disappointing. However, the price remains at 0.60, which means Hiaptek has strong holders who are looking at the longer term. Let's see whether the price still holds tomorrow.
Do not mind tell you all what is actually happening.
The redeemable bond which is convertible to shares has been announced and in order to convert, the share price is now officially fixed at 70 sen and that means the bondholder can convert at anytime from now to expiry of bond.
The catch here is that not too long, the Menteri Besar (State Government)stated that 600 hectare of land would be provided as a concession for Hiap Teck (HT) to mine iron ore. Then subsequently, HT came out to say LOUDLY that they they not received the approval from the state. All these happened not too long ago.
The Catch: When the OFFICIAL LETTER from Menteri Besar is finally received, it will be big news and the price will be pushed very much above 70 sen so that the bondholder will start to exercise their right to convert the bond to shares at 70 sen. The bondholder will start to make money from this premium i.e. any excess over 70 sen.
You will note that the news on the bond price just came out in BURSA. Also, plenty of changes in the directorship at this and possibly more directors from China will be appointed.
Hiap Teck Venture's (HTVB) 2QFY12 results were below our andconsensus estimates. Net profit was weaker q-o-q at RM1.6m (1QFY12: RM8.1m) butstronger y-o-y, while 1H net profit stood at RM9.7m (1HFY11: RM3.3m).The weak results are no cause for alarm as we had expected a soft performance in 2Q due to the festive seasons. We think the company may see a better 2HFY12 activities pick up. Although newson the iron ore concession has beenquiet for some time, we don't think that will affect HTVB's core operationsas this was supposed to be an unexpectedbonus anyway. We maintain our Trading BUY call, with a lower revised FV of RM0.74, as we lower the iron ore concession value-add factor to 10%from 20% in tandem with our house view.
Weaker asanticipated. HTVB reported a 2QFY12 net profit of RM1.6m (-80.3% q-o-q), whichis below our and street estimate estimates when annualized. Having said that, we are not surprised as wehad earlier anticipated HTVB's 2Q numbers to fall in the months whichexperienced festive seasons (Nov, Dec and Jan), during which businessactivities generally slow down. The lower production in the manufacturingdivision resulted in a higher cost of production, which further dampened theGroup's performance. Nevertheless, its overall 1H performance still lookspromising as the reported earnings were three times that in the same periodlast year.
A brighter 2HFY12 ahead. We believe HTVB's future prospects remain intact asthe local steel industry may see activities gather pace when more projectsunder the Tenth Malaysia Plan and Economic Transformation Programme are rolledout. Elsewhere, the continuous improvement in the company's API steel pipes making venture that fetches more robust margins and which exports 5CT pipes may seea pick-up, with orders expected to flow in after the festiveseasons. This further supports our view on a better 2H for HTVB.
Iron ore concessionmay materialize only later. It has been 3 months since Terengganu's MBannounced that an iron ore concession will be given to Eastern Steel during aground breaking ceremony in December last year. However, so far we have yet tosee the state government issue an official letter to this effect. Nonetheless,we are not too concerned about the delay in the concession awards because: (i) the company's BF plant is still underconstruction, and (ii) we believe that HTVB already has plans to source for iron ore to feed into itsBF plant and did not take into consideration the Bukit Besi concession when itventured into the BF plant project. As we mentioned earlier, the local iron oreconcession would be an unexpected bonus to Eastern Steel and/or HTVB
Mohd Shuk: Impossible to say. Kita tak tahu apa yang akan jadi masa depan. Tapi saya rasa boleh ambik reasonable risk lah dengan harga ni dengan potensi Hiaptek. Tapi kalau contra, tak jamin time ni - dia agak passive. Bila turnover tinggi, boleh lompat masuk macam bulan lepas.
Aiyah itu la kena buat TA!!! Kena belajar tau!!! semua saham ada naik turun!!! Nak tahu bila dia boleh beli jual kena buat TA tau!!! TApi hiaptek skg tak ok!!! dulu saya sudah untung 12ct!!!
Mohd Shuk: Link ni saya TER-jumpa. Banyak maklumat yang kita tak tahu mudah didapati, tapi orang lain tahu. Itu sebab kita kena sama-sama tolong. By the way, saya tertarik dengan company-company yang small-cap ni - biasanya harga bawah 1.00, kerap `diam' aje. Tapi bila ada rumour takeover etc, meletup. Yang 20 sen mudah-mudah aje sampai 40-50 sen... 100%. Tapi nak tahu jugak lah fundamentals dia, boleh Keep in View. Research papers macam kat sini memang helpful.
cmlooi: If it goes down to below that, I think I'll scrape the money to buy more and keep. Have to look at the longer term (i.e. 3 months up at least). I'm also encouraged by what Su Jackie mentioned above, especially about the loan stock. These investors are willing to accept a 70 sen strike price, which means it is at a bargain right now. Hiaptek is now quiet, `semi-dormant'. But this is one counter speculators will jump on to when it moves again, as seen last month.
I am just back form out-station and to my surprise everyone is getting excited and trying to fish for more information. I know a litle of inside out on Hiap Teck. Go study a little about the Vice Chairman Dato' Law. He made billions from iron ore mining (Midwest) in Australia in 2008 before the share market collapsed. His timing PERFECT ! On the other hand Melewar Industrial group got greedy and got stuck in their invesment in iron ore (Jindelbie) in Australa. His success was his close liaison with the Chinese steel men (those from China and not Malaysia lah!).
Now the next plan is for (them ! you know who) to make billions a second time and this time in Malaysia - to wallop (attack) Lion Corp and to make billions. To make billions quick is through their share investment in Hiap Teck i.e. the vehicle reap money through shares. That is all from me and there will be no more news from me because it gets to sensitive. You can continue to imagine and think what happens next. Good luck to me and you.
cmlooi: I'm also a small fry:-) There are merits to going it technically, of course, and I will jump in buying more when there's an upswing. But I'll be very cautious, with one foot to the door. The problem with trying to catch an upswing is this: we don't *really* know if it's real - the upswing can easily turn the other way. Based on previous painful (and also sweet) experiences, I've become rather conservative. Right now I'm sticking with fundamentals, holding and waiting, and selling when I get a certain x% profits. Not so exciting as watching for trends and regular trading but this system seems to be more profitable for me.
Mat, you are right. Trying catch up for those upswing would be tiring and it is a waste of time and most of the time, $$$ too. Stick to a few of fundamental counters would give you a peace of mind and, of course $$$$$. :-) Happy investing.
1.5 sen up today. That's good - just go up slowly and steadily. By the way, Kimlun has been going down slowly last week, and then suffered a 6 sen drop to 1.55 today. Wonder what's the problem? The reports I've been reading say it's a good company too, with upside potential from the MRT project.
jacklew: Quite a number of painful experiences although there were those adrenalin-filled moments too. There was one company in the late 90's - Zaitun (whatever happened to it?): I went in after it had suffered sharp drops for two consecutive days to 1.00-something, hoping for a rebound from the oversold situation. It did, and I made more than RM1.00 per lot over just 2 days. Thrilling! But most of such trades ended in losses. The ones that I actually made money on were those that I had settled and held on to. There's a lesson here somewhere.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mat Cendana
2,331 posts
Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-03-17 23:47 | Report Abuse
This is a company with a good and sustainable business as a manufacturer of iron and steel products. It had also expanded by getting an iron-mining concession in Terengganu. The price was going up steadily until mid-Feb when investors started selling due to concerns of dilution after the company's cash call made for its business expansion.
This slide, however, appears to have been checked. Investors know that it is a good buy to keep and speculators will also jump in. Hiap Teck's volume is high enough to help push the price to at least 70 sen in the next few weeks.