@hng33 *Shelving and storage solutions* The demand for shelving and storage solutions is expected to slow down due to festive season at the beginning of Q2 2023 and will likely weaken further on the back of slowing global economic outlook coupled with higher interest and inflation rate that pose significant growth headwinds. Businesses will lower their stock levels and slow down expansion projects. Accordingly, the S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 48.8 in April 2023 indicated challenging business conditions and demand remained subdued, pressuring firms to limit production and scale back their purchasing activities.
Bought MORE @ 32c, crossing 130k shares for the first time ever...they SOLD almost all their ships at the peak of the bulk carrier market, and now I'm gonna raid their kitty for the cash from those sales while waiting for the price to rise back above breakeven, which it most definitely will! Ganbatte Teraoka, Sekonic & Nishishiba!!!🤗
Re-deployed the capital released by 7-dividend-earning PBA & 5-dividend earning KPS into more of an investment that will give me yet another bumper dividend, this time well before Christmas!🤗
Pity. This company is no longer the same company as it was 10-18 years ago. Last annual report showed it only has 3 vessels left. Customer concentration risks are high. Market cap is only RM305 million - a small company, no longer a shade of what it was 10-18 years ago.
Last Balance sheet showed 19+ sen cash. NTA 52 sen. Trading at 30.5 sen, so, undervalued by P/NTA basis and interesting. However, business appears fairly valued (?). My estimate of 1 year EPS is around 1.2 sen. Excluding cash, the business is available for sale at 30.5 sen - 19 sen = 11.5 sen i.e. P/E of < 10, which is very fair for the future earnings from the 3 vessels. Total cash is around 190 million + meaning they can't scale / grow their business in the future - if they use the entire 190 million to buy 2-3 vessels, that cash is gone. If they pay out the 190 million + cash as dividends, market is going to drop down ex-div. We already seen that market is pricing fairly - on the last ex-div date, price fell 1.5 sen, exactly equal to the dividend paid out. At this juncture, this is now a penny stock with little upside / downside prospect.
It's not clear to me what happened to MAYBULK. I haven't monitored for over a decade and suddenly noticed this business is nothing like the business that it was 10-18 years ago. It looks to me this company is now ceasing / substantially reducing market's interest.
If you are a Book Value investor and are very patient, perhaps accumulating at low prices and hoping for a price spike to sell out may work out, but this can test even the most patient investors. Keep such plays a small % of one's capital.
For me, my rule is that the dividends must be funded by a % of earnings. If EPS is 1.2 sen and DPS is 1 sen, that's 3.3% of 30 sen price which is similar to FD rates and doesn't beat EPF, so, I'll pass. Sure, I'll grant that MAYBULK might use some of its cash to enhance the DPS to be larger than 1 sen, however, it will reduce its cash and limits its future ability to grow its fleets i.e. the more cash it distributes as dividends, the less chance it can grow its business in the future.
Just documenting my thoughts here for my own future reference to remind me to pass this trade.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
dompeilee
11,888 posts
Posted by dompeilee > 2023-03-01 18:53 | Report Abuse
Thanks!