Posted by papaya > 2016-02-18 18:24 | Report Abuse

hahaha....relax la grace.....it's good to see people happy(for me)

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-18 20:01 | Report Abuse

Bye amazing Grace!!!! See you when you see me!

Posted by Alphabeta > 2016-02-18 22:00 | Report Abuse

In the original calculation of the power plant investment, the original capex was RM 5 bil. If based on the debt/equity of 70:30, the equity investment will be RM 1.5bil.

Mudajaya 26% interest in the power plant will come to RM 390 mil. If you look at the FY 2012 annual report, Mudajaya has only India Pwergen as its only investment in associate, the total cost of investment shown was RM 862 mil. In other word the total additional capex incurred was RM (862 - 390) + (862 -390)*74/26 = 472 + 1343 = RM 1.815 bil. This is rough 36.3% more than the original estimate of RM 5 bil.

The total capex of RM 6.815 bil will be amortized over remaining concession period after the commissioning of the plant. I doubt the revenue from power supply after commission will be sufficient to cover the plant recurring operating cost, interest charges (can increase on reset upon commision) and repayment of the RM 3.5 bil loan. Especially there is a delay and shorter period to sell. There are also risks of sufficient coal supply for optimal power generation and also power off-take from the state.

Not to mentioned its share of losses of RM 225 mil as at FY 12. I doubt there will be any share of profit after commissioning of the plant (just based on the figure in the annual report) unless the operating margin is strong. Mudajaya will be lucky to fully recover its investment cost at the end of the concession period.

I merely make this deduction based on my understanding and the figures presented in the annual report.

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 08:45 | Report Abuse

Alphabeta, then y do fairfax keep buying? Pls explain if u know.

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 08:51 | Report Abuse

Pls verify whether ff buy some at 2.50 also?

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 08:51 | Report Abuse

Why?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 09:31 | Report Abuse

Alphabeta..Bro by your simplistic comments..I guess you are not an accountant. Neither am I. So let us 2 accountant buruh, so to speak, have a debate...OK? No hard feelings. I Miss Amazing Grace already...and here you come.

Firstly, are you aware that RKM Powergen is a Joint Venture between RK Powergen and Mudajaya (notice the missing M in the latter)? Have you viewed the JV agreement? 26/74% does not necessarily mean funding and everything by that proportion.

Are you aware that in 2014 the total assets amounted to about RM5 billion and total liabilities about 4RM4 billion...leaving a RM1. somthing billion TNW? Mudajaya's shares of net assets being about 300 plus million...all in ringgit. The joint venture was profitable albeit a small profit of RM3 million in 2014.

Now, let us concentrate on Mudajaya...the auditors have stated the total borrowings ..about 400 plus million and there are no "hidden" borrowings...the amount owing by associates is small and not associated with the JV. The asset investments in associates (discounting the small ones) amount to about 690 million based on "recoverable amount of investment absed on "value of cash generating units" CGU.

When the JV was signed, expected profits for Mudajaya alone was RM70 million p.a. what do you think is RK Powergen's portion? I like the simple mix up about the total borrowings of RM5 billion to be paid only by Mudajaya as one would assume reading your comments.

I do not dispute the additional costs for the delays/moratorium on principal payments to banks but have confidence in RAM ratings as they are the experts on the RM 1 billion SUKUK (not fully utilised). additionally, have faith for the accounting fraternity as they have accounting standards to follow when valuating investments in associates. Got to get back to work...but could not resist commenting.

I can go on and on...but I am no expert either...but I think my 5cts is worth more than yours!

Posted by Alfonso > 2016-02-19 09:41 | Report Abuse

drop Q again mat7 oh!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-02-19 10:03 | Report Abuse

Basically, what Alphabeta has said was that "RKM POWERGEN WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CHURN OUT MUCH PROFIT FROM SALE OF ELECTRICITY DUE TO COST OVERRRUN."

and this conclusion was arrived at based on 2012 annual report figures.

However, in this March 2014 article in The Star, Mudajaya CEO explicitly stated that stakes in RKM Powergen can potentially contribute RM70 mil profit per annum.


http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2014/03/03/construction-outfit-tipped-to-be-prime-beneficiary-from-rm11bil-power-plant-job/


2012 vs 2014 - which piece of info more updated ? You decide yourself

It is very clear that Alphabeta's interpretation is wrong

no need to debate further, let's move on

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:01 | Report Abuse

Not much seller

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:04 | Report Abuse

Why..

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 11:11 | Report Abuse

PUBLIC INVEST - September 14

1440-MW Indian Power Plant is valued at RM679m in book value, with RM262m of unrealized profits, or total investments of RM941m. The build-own-operate power plant is expected to yield RM70m during its concession period of 20 years. Just by assuming the asset at book value, the power plant is worth RM1.75/share.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 11:12 | Report Abuse

I know its old news...but the plants are alive now......

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:15 | Report Abuse

Wow 1.75?

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:16 | Report Abuse

Potential divident? Good?

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2016-02-19 11:17 | Report Abuse

1.17

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:19 | Report Abuse

Possible 9 cents?

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:20 | Report Abuse

Or even more? 15 cents?

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:21 | Report Abuse

Or maybe 12c?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 11:25 | Report Abuse

Full report ...

2014

Mudajaya - What It’s Worth
Author: PublicInvest | Publish date: Wed, 24 Sep 2014, 11:32 AM



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mudajaya's recent earnings disappointments saw its stock price weakening to a multi-year low (5-year low: RM1.80). After the 2Q results, MDJ lost another 17% to current price, vis-à-vis our NTA-derived price target of RM2.25. With earnings under pressure (at least for the next few quarters), a natural question to ask is whether value is emerging with the recent price collapse? We start by relooking at the MDJ's main assets namely, properties such as Menara Mudajaya (NLA 125ksf, Mutiara Damansara) and Crest Building (NSA 225ksf, Jln Ampang) and its 1440-MW power plant in India, with the latter alone constituting 60% of its NTA currently. By just pegging the Indian power plant at book value and revalued property assets at market value, the RNAV is estimated at RM2.90 already. That said, we prefer to err on the side of caution, and wait for Mudajaya to deliver both in job replenishment and commercialization of the Indian power plant (targeted end-2014) before we change our stance.

Property assets worth RM336m, are derived namely from the Group‟s HQ i.e. Menara Mudajaya at Mutiara Damansara and Crest Building at Jalan Ampang. We understand that currently, Menara Mudajaya is fully occupied, with recent rental reached as high as RM4.90psf. With 125k sf NLA, we estimate Menara Mudajaya is worth RM100m at market value (at RM700psf). Meanwhile, Crest Building which has net saleable area of 225k sf (Office: 150k sf; Condo: 75k sf) is estimated to be worth RM270m if priced at RM1100 psf at market value. These two assets are worth RM0.63/share.

1440-MW Indian Power Plant is valued at RM679m in book value, with RM262m of unrealized profits, or total investments of RM941m. The build-own-operate power plant is expected to yield RM70m during its concession period of 20 years. Just by assuming the asset at book value, the power plant is worth RM1.75/share.

Construction businesses. If assuming RM700m sustainable revenue p.a., 6% PBT and capitalized at 10x PER, the construction business is worth another RM0.60/share. All told, the blended fair value for Mudajaya is estimated to be worth RM3.50 (with RM2.90 from property and concession assets and another RM0.60 from construction business).

Maintain Neutral. Until earnings start to show signs of recovery, we maintain our Neutral stance and RM2.25 TP which is pegged on parity to the NTA. Job wins which are expected in the next few months might create buying interest but weak earnings, at least in the next 3-4 quarters would mean stock performance will be capped near term in our view.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 24 Sep 2014


Well the crest building in Jln Ampany is way more than 1,100 per sq ft and probably the other building too! Remember power assets worth 1.75/Share.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 11:26 | Report Abuse

Just to refresh your minds...after such damaging comments being posted

Posted by PriyankaC > 2016-02-19 11:34 | Report Abuse

400523 can u do a discounted cashflow on the 70m per year for 20 years?

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:36 | Report Abuse

I prefer dividend

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:36 | Report Abuse

Instead of asset play

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:37 | Report Abuse

Who have estimate dividend yield.

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 11:38 | Report Abuse

Possible reach 15% ?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 11:41 | Report Abuse

Priyanka...I am no accountant and I am not encouraging anyone to buy. All the info above is 2014 info.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 11:45 | Report Abuse

Just remember...in all probability, they will report a loss as ist half 2015 was a loss position. At best will be a breakeven or small profit. Market might react to it indifferently if unaware of power plant COD's and impending generation of power from power plants 1 & 2 within 2 to 3 months.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 11:46 | Report Abuse

Ok time for me to shut up and work....grace 123 might surface soon also.... bye

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 14:46 | Report Abuse

10bagger10...poor u..nobody hue u? You are looking for 15% dividend yield...you are looking at the right share...but maybe have to wait a few years from bro for 15%

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-19 14:46 | Report Abuse

downgraded still buy, not smart

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-19 14:47 | Report Abuse

Paperplane, pro?

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 14:53 | Report Abuse

10bagger10...if you got lots of capital...and wan 15% dividend...we can start an Ah Long business

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 14:53 | Report Abuse

Just joking...bro!

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 15:13 | Report Abuse

papaerlane2016 RAM downgraded the SUKUK debt because they had no choice in the yearly review. losses incurred by Mudajaya for so many quarters including 1st half 2015 and no official news on power plants...what do you expect? But look at the rating after the downgrade A2/positive and understand what it means and why the analyst still gave it a good but ....not so good rating...i.e. he mentioned recent securing of contracts and possibility of power plants starting up soon.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-19 15:15 | Report Abuse

as if share market not enough risk.....still want to seek even more risk.

Posted by 400523 > 2016-02-19 15:18 | Report Abuse

Tired of defending against so many unfounded claims...someone help me!!!

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-19 15:20 | Report Abuse

400523....you want so much risk...go and buy some call warrants la.

Posted by 120453 > 2016-02-19 20:55 | Report Abuse

Buy!

Posted by 120453 > 2016-02-22 10:04 | Report Abuse

Looks like collection trend, someone is collecting. . . .

Posted by Sapphire > 2016-02-22 10:55 | Report Abuse

yeah looks like going up back to 1.30....hehe

Posted by Sapphire > 2016-02-22 11:00 | Report Abuse

sabah sarawak..

Posted by Alfonso > 2016-02-22 11:01 | Report Abuse

ok, no problem

Posted by kenz88 > 2016-02-23 16:18 | Report Abuse

any comment??? today I T2, tomorrow can fly???

Posted by tan5995 > 2016-02-24 14:57 | Report Abuse

man man deng 慢慢等 ！ha ha ha !

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-24 20:46 | Report Abuse

Good!

Posted by slbzr > 2016-02-25 17:23 | Report Abuse

oil price?

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-25 18:05 | Report Abuse

Wowww

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-02-25 18:10 | Report Abuse

400523 tomorrow?

Posted by HowIn > 2016-02-25 18:31 | Report Abuse

Qr out.. seem starting turnaround, tmr will fly?