Posted by duitduit > 2017-05-04 09:03 | Report Abuse

I sell 0.885. This stock has come up from 0.81. Take profit and look around for opportunities.

Posted by moregain > 2017-05-04 09:08 | Report Abuse

0.885 no more. Too late. 0.875 already. Keep waiting, it keep dropping.

Posted by moregain > 2017-05-04 09:40 | Report Abuse

Healthy correction. Mycron has not gone up to its worth yet.

Posted by ChasingDreamz > 2017-05-04 16:17 | Report Abuse

This is kinda mid term stock. With china keep on reducing size of steel millers, coupled with local imported-steel restriction, and also continuing big projects locally, im pretty sure the macros are good with this company BUT sell immediately if quater still bad despite all the good sentiment on steel industries

Posted by faithful > 2017-05-09 10:42 | Report Abuse

above 90 sen...

Posted by tssl74 > 2017-05-09 11:03 | Report Abuse

mm...quite alot of buyers vs sellers.

Posted by hueyyng27 > 2017-05-09 11:11 | Report Abuse

Mycron Steel (5087)
AmInvestment Bank (02 May 2017):

Mycron Steel (MYCRON) may resume its uptrend after retesting is
downtrend line in its latest session. With the RSI level still at the
neutral level, a bullish bias may kick in above this point with a target
price of RM0.95. Nonetheless, it may trade sideways if it cannot
breach the RM0.84 point in the near term. In this case, support is
anticipated at RM0.80, whereby traders may exit on a breach to avoid
the risk of a further correction.
Trading Call: Buy on uptrend continuation above RM0.84
Target: RM0.995 (time frame: 3-6 weeks)
Exit: RM0.80

Posted by lingling66 > 2017-05-09 13:59 | Report Abuse

any news?? sudenly up to 0.92?

Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-05-09 14:00 | Report Abuse

steel counters up up

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-09 14:00 | Report Abuse

yes

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/122468.jsp

Posted by cruise > 2017-05-09 14:00 | Report Abuse

up up

Posted by damontee > 2017-05-09 14:20 | Report Abuse

please dont let it stop. 0.95 today

Posted by bleuerouge > 2017-05-09 20:00 | Report Abuse

well done!!!

Posted by probability > 2017-05-09 20:17 | Report Abuse

Guys..those who are invested, suggest to exit slowly before the results are out.

Study YKGI results compared to preceeding quarter and you will know that the raw material cost had tremendously increased.

I predict Mycron will have poor results.

Posted by amet2017 > 2017-05-09 20:23 | Report Abuse

Ya ya then you will buy when people do a panic selling.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-09 20:24 | Report Abuse

panic selling will happen when results are out...
you want to buy then or now..i leave it to you.

Posted by vincentfoo > 2017-05-09 21:21 | Report Abuse

this is coming, above RM1 anytime soon

Posted by ChasingDreamz > 2017-05-09 22:15 | Report Abuse

haha smilling ar u ppls?

Posted by probability > 2017-05-09 23:46 | Report Abuse

i think i am wrong with my statement earlier - sorry

Posted by Up_down > 2017-05-10 13:58 | Report Abuse

MYcron's reporting is the best in bother QR and AR among steel companies. The company normally provides more insight information of the company and industry. Nil dividends is the main culprit for its low valuation.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-10 14:19 | Report Abuse

now that you have at least 3 IB promoting it, $ 1 should be sup sup sui....after that, if good results, new high.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-11 09:11 | Report Abuse

YKGI's gross profit doubled...as such mycron's gross profit or at least the EPS should be double the preceeding quarter results.

Posted by matmat > 2017-05-11 09:32 | Report Abuse

Hope for dividend this year..

Posted by probability > 2017-05-11 10:10 | Report Abuse

should easily break 1.0 considering the results of YKGI

Posted by probability > 2017-05-11 10:19 | Report Abuse

was only worried on its CRC section earlier - YKGI results proved otherwise.

Steel Tube segment should be spectacular as they were eyeing export markets.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-11 14:55 | Report Abuse

RM 1.0 coming soon..

Posted by mastertrader > 2017-05-11 15:10 | Report Abuse

nice mycron gogo retest 0.93/0.94 above this fly high

Posted by probability > 2017-05-11 15:54 | Report Abuse

YKGI's gross profit margin risen from 8.7% to 15.6% - almost 100% rise!!

Imagine if that happens to Mycron.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-11 15:54 | Report Abuse

what would be the impact to bottom line

Posted by henken > 2017-05-11 16:12 | Report Abuse

http://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/05/7020-ykgi.html

Posted by vincentfoo > 2017-05-11 16:18 | Report Abuse

Nice, keep going! RM1 soon!

Posted by LilyLL > 2017-05-11 16:40 | Report Abuse

It today closing 950 2moro may up 1.00 wish good luck

Posted by probability > 2017-05-11 16:48 | Report Abuse

yup..very likely it will gap up tomorrow

Posted by Ryan88 > 2017-05-11 20:20 | Report Abuse

up up up

congrats

Posted by LilyLL > 2017-05-12 09:12 | Report Abuse

Big drop today

Posted by vincentfoo > 2017-05-12 09:50 | Report Abuse

take a breather today

Posted by probability > 2017-05-12 12:52 | Report Abuse

hope it will rocket after the breather

Posted by probability > 2017-05-13 22:33 | Report Abuse

MEGASTEEL closure: Impact to MYCRON & CHOO BEE going forward

There are two types of HRC, Iron Ore based HRC and Scrap based HRC.

Scrap based HRC produces Scrap based CRC and Iron Ore based HRC produces Iron Ore Based CRCbefore being used in the next downstream manufacturing process.

Scrap based CRC is used by downstream manufacturers mainly in the Steel Tube and Furniture sectors.Iron Ore based CRC (higher grade) is used for Automotive industry application and Electrical appliances. Refer Link 1 below, Page 8 under Domestic CRC structure for details.

Megasteel produces only Scrap Based HRC

(A) Let us first determine how much does Mycron use Scrap Based HRC per annum as its raw material.

It is reported on Financial YR 2015 annual report that it uses ‘Scrap based HRC’ as its raw material solely from Megasteel for its Steel Tube manufacturing segment. Refer Link 1, page 12 second paragraph on its annual report.

Link 1: Mycron Annual Report

http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2015/11/06/1483789631--639706738.pdf

Referring to Melewar’s annual report, one can see the total throughput in tons of HRC processed as 73 ton / annum with the last qtr reaching 20 ton/qtr at 55% of its rated capacity, refer Link 2 Section ‘1.3 Steel Tube Operations’ on Table 4. My estimation for 2016 based on the reported revenue of RM 206M for the Steel Tube segment alone comes to approximately ~ 90 ton /annum of Scrap based HRC processed.

Link 2: Melewar Annual Report:

http://www.melewar-mig.com/investorsinfo_cmmsg.html

Note that Scrap based HRC which is cheaper can only be used for such Tube segments unlike for Car Manufacturing application and other higher quality CRC making which requires Iron Ore based HRC. So it is important to note that only Scrap based HRC users in the market stand to gain and not the Iron ore based HRC users unlike what ‘SuperInvestor’ had highlighted vaguely for steel manufacturers, due to Megasteel closure.

Another one good example of beneficiary is Choo Bee who uses Scrap Based HRC for its Manufacturing section. Mycron’s Iron ore based HRC are sourced internationally for its CRC making segment, refer Link 2 section 1.2 Cold Rolled operation 2nd paragraph after Table 3. The expected gain on the Iron Based CRC making segment is beyond this article’s scope as we are only concern on Megasteel closure impact.



(B) Now let us determine realistically what would be the reduction on the cost of Scrap Based HRC when sourced externally, now that Megasteel is closed?

Of course we have to assume now, the Duty imposed for import of HRC will be removed as it does not make sense to retain it as there is no longer anyone to be protect for. To get an idea, we should find out what was the duty imposed. Please refer Melewar’s annual report under section 1.5 paragraph number 9. It says the existing import duty is 15%.

Link 2:

http://www.melewar-mig.com/investorsinfo_cmmsg.html

Note that Megasteel had demised while 'gasping' for an additional 40% duty to restrict the cheaper HRC supply from China (makes me wonder how big the price difference was from external source! smiley )

Using an estimated cost of HRC from WealthWizard publishing earlier – link 3 below as RM 1600 per ton, the duty value of 15% translates to 15% x RM 1600 per ton as ~ RM 240 per ton.

Link 3:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/103812.jsp

Further note that as per below news from TheEdge dated 13 June, Megasteel is charging a premium of RM 400 – 500 per ton for the Scrap Based HRC – refer Link 4.

Link 4:

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/81555

Using the above 2 information, and conservatively placing a 50% discount to cater the market dynamics to reach an equilibrium, we can safely say that the Scrap Based HRC users will at least benefit by RM 250 per ton by externally sourcing their Scrap Based HRC. (Frankly speaking I don’t see any reason why they could not save as being claimed by Mr Tan).



(C) Now let us see the impact on the bottom line for Mycron, by multiplying the throughput above of `73 ton/annum by the Savings of RM 250 / ton and the Tax rate of 25% to obtain: PAT of 18.3 Million per annum.

This translates to additional EPS of 5.0 cents on top of the normalized EPS of 22.4 cents based on the Projected next 4Q net profits of 63.3M by WealthWizard as per below article earlier:

Posted by soonadol > 2017-05-13 23:47 | Report Abuse

Hi @probability sifu. From where did you calculate that YKGI's gross profit margin has risen to 15.6%? YKGI's latest quarter report format seems different compared to the previous quarter report.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-14 10:12 | Report Abuse

soonadol, you can work back on the COGS of YKGI on latest quarter based on S&A cost and Depreciation used in the preceeding qtr.

You can obtain the S&A cost on preceeding qtr by subtracting the Gross Profit = Revenue - COGS with the EBITDA derived from Operating Proft + Depreciation.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-14 10:38 | Report Abuse

I am compelled to believe the same minimum 7% (15.6 - 8.7) margin improvement on Mycron's gross profit because the CRC section gross profit of Mycron had actually shrunk by half when the steel price in China started to rise rapidly late last year - disabling Mycron to reflect the gain from Megasteel closure.

By assuming its CRC gross profit Margin returns to its normal level, it exactly matches this 7% rise.

Note that CRC section gross profit margin had terribly dipped from its norm earlier and it was the improvement in Steel Tube segment that had counter acted this effects to maintain its earnings.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-14 17:39 | Report Abuse

one can have a very clear comparison of gross margin between Mycron, YKGI etc before Megasteel closure here:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/103812.jsp

Note that currently the Steel Tube segment is expanding rapidly - Choo Bee is a proof.

The extensive compression on its CRC segment margin is slowly reverting to the mean....as can be seen on YKGI's latest qtr results.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-14 17:44 | Report Abuse

Refer Table 6 on WealthWizard's article on Sales & Cost of sales to derive their old gross profit margins.

Posted by soonadol > 2017-05-14 18:25 | Report Abuse

Thanks probability!

Posted by hueyyng27 > 2017-05-16 11:18 | Report Abuse

resting before flying again

Posted by Yipman > 2017-05-16 11:39 | Report Abuse

Hmm... 0.9 is still cheap. It's time to top up now before the next QR announcement in 10 more days. Expected good result.

Posted by Newest > 2017-05-16 21:12 | Report Abuse

Y keep drop recently

Posted by mastertrader > 2017-05-17 16:56 | Report Abuse

im collecting just ready to rebound back

Posted by mastertrader > 2017-05-17 17:03 | Report Abuse

if the price above 0.90 it should be ok..just a correction before fly again

Posted by bleuerouge > 2017-05-17 23:19 | Report Abuse

yes, 50% correction done, support well absorb today. I guess rebound could start tomorrow but let us see how it goes in the morning. I'm looking for the right re-entry.