I've sold of all my 10,000 shares at 2.91 after the SD announcement and have been looking for an opportunity to buy back..
First plan was before Ex-dividend date then it became after Ex-dividend..
Now? I might not buy back after all. I guess my main reason is that the airline biz model has severely deteriorated with the sale and lease back model (more maintenance and leasing cost). Coupled with high fuel hedging rate + the current average fuel price, I believe it is very difficult for AA to make any significant operational profit for these 2 years.
Some might counter that AA is working on BigPay, Airasia.com, Teleport and etc. Buying into them at this point is a gamble when they are without any proven track record. It is safe to assume that they will not bring any significant profit to the table in these 2 years of their infancy. In fact, many of these technological startups has incur huge losses or fail despite having humongous amount of dollar pumped into it.
Buying into AA now can be equated into buying a mediocre, risky, weak profit & balance sheet airlines company with the promise of becoming the amazon of travel by surpassing leaders Expedia, Booking & Ctrip.. I'll believe it when I see it, however small the signs are.. thats when I will dip into AA again.
Nowadays cost n risk management, account management, maintenance n equipment management, manpower services, n other irrelevant to core business structures are outsourced. You only see permanent employee in core business structures, because of how efficient the business are managed for the benefit of shareholders, in the expense of non core employees. Not easy to understand the whole build up of business model. TQ.
In fact, I would speculate that the sale & lease back model benefits TF and Kam the most by being the major shareholder. Yes, I understand they took a big loan several years ago to increase their shareholdings. Yes of course, they are eager to settle it.
Originally, some speculate that the cash returns could be reinvested to boost their new ventures. But no, nothing or rather a paltry sum (rm100m) is “promised” to be invested in the new biz. Then again, TF is smart enough in marketing to convince private investors to invest. He has gone to US recently for this purpose. Yesterday, Aileen also mentioned investment is open for Redbeat ventures. But remember new investors will take a share of the businesses.
Essentially, the airline business is weaken by the subsequent higher maintenance and leasing cost for cash returns that does jack/nothing for the business. I find it hard to believe TF giving 90sen SD to shareholders if he weren’t the main beneficiary. Like seriously? What management would increase operational cost permanently, and empty their coffer without gaining anything?
Without any AA shares in my hands, I have been able to reflect more critically of this business for the past month. I actually think TF is a great businessman and also an extremely excellent marketing genius. Precisely on how he manages to conjure this vision of “Amazon of travel and Uber for flying” by using buzzwords like: Digitalisation, Artificial Intelligence, FinTech, disruptor and etc. to hook and lure the average investor into this promise of technological cash boom shares by companies like Uber, Grab, Lyft and cash flow like Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent and etc.
His charisma and accent is impeccable. Which to me is a plus for the management.
Just. Just now is not the right time for me to invest in AA. In fact, I have quadrupled my share in AAX recently. (Not a lot anyways). As I think it has more room for earnings growth and positive catalyst.
I am writing to consolidate and share with you guys without any ulterior motive. I would like to respond to those whom actually has some factual backing and has done deeper analysis on the subject. Thanks.
I have invested in AirAsia for about 5 years now! Happy with my investment so far....With all the annual dividends/special dividends that i have received and the big one coming soon, my capital investment risk is getting less each day....
Going forward, the next 5 years will be a challenging one. I see there maybe some risks but it can be also be a rewarding one, only if Tony can do a good job in AirAsia 3.0!
Investment is about risk and reward. It is really hard to find one that you are willing to invest substantially...
I guess my 5 years stint in AirAsia has given me enough time to understand a bit more on the business, although i cannot claim to know all, it is sufficient for me to make a decision...
I have decided to continue my adventure with AirAsia for better or for worst....
I do share privately to friends on my other investments, only if we get to know each other....
i use FD money buy some AA share. The money put FD also not much interest, just put in AA 3 years see how much capital can get back. But 1 things is confirm, I can get 9.5%/PA if price back to current level in 3 years
TF said they have hedged their fuel 70% for this and next year, and 20% for 2021. And he gave guidance that the coming QR would not be good, due to the new accounting provision, and, Q3 & Q4 would be better. Indonesia & Philippines would grow their capacities faster than Malaysia & Thailand.
Sorry gotta drive back from klia hence the short comment.
1 - china is negotiating a deal if they can get at least 49% (their limit) instead of current regulation 25% they will announce soon. Apparently the chinese gov like airasia because they fly to places other airlines doesn’t fly.
2 - quite confident Philippines airasia will be the largest airline in Philippines soon and ipo is around the corner.
3 - due to accounting practices 2nd quarter numbers won’t be rosy as well. Although cash flow will be positive as usual. 3rd and 4th Q numbers may recover. Net profit wise.
4 - post dividend, net cash flow will be about 2b ringgit. Cash from aircraft sales will be coming in starting july.
5 - vietnam still looking for a suitable partner.
6 - baggage fees will be adjusted (raised) depending on routes due to competition from “teleport” for belly space.
7 - management continues to put cost cutting as number 1 priority.
8 - bigpay will become a bank (digitally) pending license from bank negara and will be launched in Singapore/thailand/Indonesia (basically asean) by wholly owned subsidiaries/joint venture depending on regulations.
9 - every year target to add 20-30 planes. May continue to lease planes as it is cheaper now (cash wise not accounting wise) until interest rates are down then possibly go back to owning planes.
10 - will post updates on investors they met in US for their digital business.
11 - will open one or two f&b outlets in klang valley (santan and t&co) own a few the rest may be franchised. Nothing significant here.
What else u want to know its one of the longest agm ive been i may missed out some stuff cos i wasnt taking any note.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Khaz
393 posts
Posted by Khaz > 2019-06-26 16:04 | Report Abuse
IB please work harder to push the price down, still want to top up...