Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-06 13:00 | Report Abuse

The Greek issue, 1MDB ,China stocks correction, etc, etc are all adding to the scenario of a weak ringgit, strong dollar,and lower oil prices. All these are highly positive to Evergreen's future profitability. Looks like an excellent buying opportunity here. The ringgit is now traded at 3.80 to the dollar, back to the previous pegged exchange rate which will particularly benefit exporters in US currency.

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-06 17:13 | Report Abuse

Evergrn RM1.48 进场，未来丰衣足食。
1)公司于5月公布的Q1 2015 业绩很好，赚了 2005万，Eps=3.91sen ,nta=rm1.7
若下来Q2,Q3,Q4都有1600万(EPS=3.1SEN),则全年可赚6805万(EPS=13.2SEN),公司股数为512978,000股.
现RM1.51只是PE=11.4 在交易,明显被低估了,合理的PE=15,价位=RM1.98
2)于31-3-2015 evergrn 的债务2.88亿,公司有CASH 7041万.
3)30大股东已持有70.92%（363804张），市场流通量只有29.08%(149174张).
4)Lth 的售股近完成,于26-0702015 尚有26258,000股(5.11%),这些股份想信会保留,
因此接下来的賣压会减少,大家会看到大副度的上升,开往目标价rm2.00
5)公司诚信度是很好的，因此数据造假应该不会发生在这公司上。
6)Evergrn 绝对是投资者的首选股，公司的潜在价值好，成长佳,将会是一只黑马股。
7)买股看公司的未来是否成长，净利多少等，当可见度变得清晰，投资风险相对变小，
股价也将呈现上升势头，Evergrn 会是不错的选择。
8)公司的赚副有8.6%，同行中算是标青的。
9)看好該公司從強勁美元走勢和低油價受惠、資產負債表穩健，且橡膠種植地價值尚未反映在現有股價估值。
10)管理層承諾會進一步加強盈利表現，包括改善整體生產效率和多元化產品類別至下游業務，
因具較高賺幅且受價格競爭影響較少。
11)長青纖維板產品價格賺幅有增無減，因美元匯率走高（出口銷售營收佔65%至70%），
美元匯率每起10仙將使其2015年淨利增長9%、生產原料價格下跌，
特別是橡膠樹木及粘合膠價格走低（占中密度纖維板生產成本55%至65%之間）利好推動。
12)我的估算Q2(8月) share price=rm1.68
Q3(11月) share price=rm1.85
Q4(2月) share price=rm2.00
供参考,进出自负.

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-06 17:43 | Report Abuse

需求与售价同步上升 木板股前景不俗

二零一五年二月八日 晚上七时十二分




随着家具制造商的需求提升，木板制造商将迎来丰收的一年。强劲美元进一步推动木板制造商，因后者大部分的产品是供出口。

提升的潜质最近数周已抬高长青纤维板有限公司（EVERGRN，5101）、美固木屑板有限公司（MIECO，5001）和亿维雅刨花板有限公司（HEVEA，5095）股价。

其中，美固木屑板和长青纤维板已经看到财务表现的扭转。两造皆认为最新季度业绩改善，是拜售价增加和经营效率提升所赐。

在本土销售70%产品的美固木屑板，在2014财政年首9个月录得340万令吉净盈利，比较之前同时期则蒙亏1440万令吉。营业额从2亿1690万令吉增加13.5%至2亿4630万令吉，‘主要是来自较高国内销售量和木板销售价的成长’。

与此同时，出口逾70%产品的长青纤维板，则在蒙受连续7个季度的亏损后，在截至2014年第3财季的净盈利改善为1007万令吉。在首9个月，其累积净亏损削减逾半，由3600万令吉降至1420万令吉。营业额增长0.5%至6亿8980万令吉，但销售成本却缩小3.3%至5亿7470万令吉。

兴业投银研究预测，亚洲领导中密度纤维板制造商的长青纤维板，将在现财政年扭转劣势。

“这是由于经营效率、较佳销售价、有利外汇和低原料成本所带动。目前，该公司仍然以截至2014年9月杪每股市值1.56令吉的水平以下交易。”

该研究公司已建议‘买进’该股，并把其目标价定于1.11令吉。该股的评值是基于账面值，相等于0.75倍的股价对账面值。

“所有木板制造商将在今年创下不俗表现，因该行业已经扭转。现在的问题是哪家可以录得更高的盈利，惟它也胥视它们参与的市场以及提供的产品。”

“提供高增值产品和远离普通木板的业者将享有更高的利润。”

分析师称，各木板制造商将拥有它们本身的强势市场，同时销售到日本也将受惠。

“日本将主办2020奥运会。它们将须大兴土木，而这可能会从今年开始。”

以原厂制造商形式出口90%产品的亿维雅刨花板，出口15%至20%的刨花板和高达60%准备组装家具到日本。亿维雅刨花板执行董事熊丽燕称，日本法律指明，需要四星级刨花板制造家具。

她指出：“虽然当前来自日本的订单还没有因为奥运会而暴增，但未来3至4年预料将看到需求的良好和适度成长。”

不过，她补充，由于宏观环境不稳定，该集团采取一个‘非常保守’立场，放眼截至2015年12月31日止财政年录得8%至10%的净盈利增长。

在2014财政年首9个月，亿维雅刨花板的净盈利飙升70%至2156万令吉，比较之前只有1269万令吉。营业额则从2亿8437万令吉提高8%至3亿725万令吉。

为了进一步区分本身产品和增加利润，亿维雅刨花板计划于今年第2季推介其本身品牌的高素质家具产品供应本地市场。该集团目前以HeveaPac品牌销售约10%准备组装家具予本地霸级市场。

熊丽燕表示：“我们超过90%的销售是以美元为单位，因此汇率的强势将带来一些短期的正面影响。我们的美元贷款也将产生负面冲击。不过，由于我们已大幅降低贷款，这些影响将不会如之前庞大。”

该公司2014年首9个月的融资成本，从前一年同时期的510万令吉，几乎砍半至270万令吉。亿维雅刨花板预料可在2017年全面解决其限期贷款。

木制品工业已从2006年的过度扩充与供应过剩中逐渐巩固。

“随着美国市场需求回温带动家具生产商复苏，刨花板与纤维板制造商过去数季的表现也相当不俗。”

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-06 20:10 | Report Abuse

Bluestary
网友的分享--(谢谢他的功课)


EVERGREEN (5101) 长青纤维板

先从技术面开始

1.股价从2012年第3季度就在0.50-0.60之间徘徊至2014年12月突破箱形区闷局，
开始上涨。用27个月在横摆。同理，横摆 越久，上涨动力越强。
2.2014年12月开始启动后，现在进入上涨第三浪。根据波浪理论，第三浪都是上涨动力最强的波段，
并且间中两次突破3年新高。至截稿为止还是稳居RM1.13 以上。
3.根据fibonaci投射，可以看到，TP1 RM1.53, TP2 RM1.81, TP3 RM2.10, TP4 RM2.29 TP5 RM2.58。
在本次下跌行情中，evergreen也只是略作回调后继续北上。可以推测主力握有大笔筹码，稳步拉升中。
(和skpres在2014年中走势雷同)缺点在于Evergreen 不属于 FBMEMAS,本地基金不能投资持股。
只要获利表现持续，必能在未来入选FBMEMAS,晋级基金股之列，取得Hevea等同行的PE水平。


再来看基本面

1. 经历內部重组计划及外围因素改善后，2014年第三季开始转亏为盈，至今己取得2个季度的浄利，
在马币疲弱，出口利好的环境下，再加上美元走稳，低原料价和高赚副，接下来的几个季度依然看好，
因此股价继续向好机会大。
2. 公司主要产品来源于橡胶木，过去3年橡胶木价格已下跌50%，无形中增加赚幅。
3.公司产品使用范围广，出口日本的比例也在升高(2020年奥运基础建设进行中)，中、美等地区。
4. 已经有多家投行给出报告，曝光率会越来越高，主力拉升的时机也已经成熟。

Posted by Anonymous99 > 2015-07-07 09:43 | Report Abuse

What's the tp for this stock, if I enter now would it be too late?

Posted by BorneobinMalaya > 2015-07-07 09:46 | Report Abuse

too late. enter mieco, kheesan or euro.

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-07 09:52 | Report Abuse

tp=rm2.00 rm1.63 is undervalua now

Posted by ethan1986 > 2015-07-07 10:34 | Report Abuse

a lot activity at 1.63 for selling than buying.

Posted by LOOK009 > 2015-07-07 10:53 | Report Abuse

cenbond 7171 HOW？

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-07 11:55 | Report Abuse

Evergrn 5101 强牛股
教您7招反敗為勝 從失敗中學習讓自己更強
2015-02-13 15:11:08

分享【作者 ／阮文非】
在投資市場上沒有人能只贏不輸，敢說自己沒賠過沒輸過的，不是騙人，就是根本沒賺過錢（死抱活抱不賣掉，帳面上當然不會賠錢）。既然大家都曾經輸過也曾經受過傷，為何有人愈戰愈勇（只占少數），而有人卻老是惋嘆（絕大多數的散戶）？既然同是為人，也沒誰特別聰明或誰特別笨，這輸贏之間的最大差別就在於心理素質。就像星爺在《食神》裡說：「一字記之曰：心！」

錢可輸信心絕不能輸

成功的投資人是每次挫敗後站起來，都會比之前更強大；常失敗的一般大眾往往是幾經挫敗就一蹶不振，即使再站起來，氣勢都比過去差了一大截。多少投資老手強調，投資真正最大的損失，不僅是金錢上，而是連自己的心都賠掉。在投資市場上，最糟的是把自己的信心都賠掉，因此我們對挫敗的反應，比賠掉的金錢還來得重要許多。

投資人在大賠後，很容易變得垂頭喪氣，從此不再碰股市，不再回想慘賠的過去。即使有人試圖要在哪裡跌倒，就要從哪裡站起來，但因為根本沒有處理好自己的心理狀態，往往更容易造成更大的損失（包括金錢和心情），結果在惡性循環之下而更難以翻身。其實凡是投資大眾應該都有這方面的經驗，就是在大賠之後急著要討回來，結果反而更病急亂投醫，到最後活生生地把本金賠掉十之八九，這些血的教訓早已聽得太多了。


教您7招反敗為勝 從失敗中學習讓自己更強
分享
當然，每個人的反應不同，從此不再碰任何投資是個人選擇，誰也不能勉強他重回投資市場。但只想一頭熱地賺回所賠的話，若沒有從失敗中學得教訓，市場會回給以更大的教訓。事實上，每一個投資的決定都是跟自己的情緒在爭鬥，簡單的說就是如何克服自己的人性。多少投資專家都說過投資要克服人性的話，但怎樣克服呢？不少專家提出許多的方法，但如果同意投資失敗是自我情緒控制不佳的話，那麼就應該直接從這方面著手。

把交易損失視為學習

投資心理學家迪頓（Gary Dayton）本身就是1名活躍的投資人，他最近在MarketWatch發表文章「從股票買賣慘賠中求生路的7個方法」（7 ways to survive a painful stock-trading loss）裡，就列出了7招如何在投資大賠後，重新收拾心情再出發。文中強調成功與失敗的投資人之間，最重大差異是彼此如何處理投資損失後的心情。成功的投資人是把交易損失視為學習，和改進其投資方法的良機。當然，反過來就是失敗的人不懂得從中學習的道理。雖然要在慘賠後再戰市場是一大挑戰，但成功者是不會因為交易大賠而放棄，甚至視賠錢為讓自己學習的機會。市場上多少人開玩笑說，自己在股市上交了多少學費，這學費的確要交，問題是自己學回多少東西。

Posted by Khor Chris > 2015-07-07 12:03 | Report Abuse

Continue accumulate.... Personal target 2.50 before year end

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-07 12:16 | Report Abuse

Besides Evergreen Bhd which has risen a lot lately...investors could also focus on Mieco as its fundamentals improves on the back of falling ringgit and oil price..more value for every ringgit spent compared to Evergreen...all bets off if ringgit and oil price were to rise..

Posted by LOOK009 > 2015-07-07 13:06 | Report Abuse

erkongseng 还能上多少，好像已涨很多。

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-07 13:43 | Report Abuse

12 Aug 2011
Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd has entered into a memorandum of understanding with four individuals to purchase 3.5 million ordinary shares of RM1 each in Jasa Wibawa Sdn Bhd for RM37.84 million cash.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, the company said the four individuals are Teh Ho Ann, Muhd Faisal Mohd Ariff, Amin Maidu and Seman Buang.

It said the completion of the sale and purchase agreement, funded by internally generated funds and bank borrowings, would be within 14 days of its execution.

Jasa Wibawa is involved in sawn-logs and cultivation of rubber trees.

The company has been awarded the rights to extract and replant timber latex clones in Hutan Simpanan Labis, Mersing, in Johor for 60 years starting from Jan 1, 2007- Dec 31, 2066 and a further 30 years if such extension is granted by the State Forestry Department of Johor. --Bernama

当年2011年用3784万買入,己种植500亩橡胶,至今若重估价值肯定超过当年的買入价.
3784 万/4410 acres=8580 元(每一亩),试问今日近 labis ,johor还有每亩8580元的土地吗?

Jasa Wibawa Sdn.Bhd

Year Established : 1998 (Acquired in 2011)
Paid Up Capital : RM3,500,000
Area : 4,410 ACRES
Activities : Rubber Plantation.
---
Friday August 31, 2012

An alarming practice






Share this article on Facebook or Twitter
to win cash or gadget!
THE recent article on logging at the Sembrong Forest Reserve in Mersing, Johor highlights the alarming practice of converting forests and land for the development of forest plantations.

It is disappointing to learn that the Forestry Department is allowing conversion of forests including permanent reserved forests for development of these forest plantations. Besides Johor, several thousand acres of tree plantations are also planned and being developed in Kelantan.

Among preliminary environmental impact assessments submitted for the development of rubber forest plantations in Johor are the proposed:

1) development of forest plantation on 2,023ha at Sembrong Forest Reserve by Hamid Sawmill Sdn Bhd;

2) timber latex clone plantation on 2,023ha at Sembrong Forest Reserve by Setindan Sdn. Bhd;

3) rubber forest plantation on about 1,784ha at Labis Forest Reserve (Extension) in Mukim Sembrong by Jasa Wibawa Sdn. Bhd;

4) rubber forest plantation in Mukim Sembrong, Mersing on 2,090ha at Labis Forest Reserve (extension) by PPPL Plantations Sdn Bhd;

5) forest rubber plantation on 6,116ha of state land in Mukim Ulu Sg Johor, Daerah Kota Tinggi by J. Biotech Sdn Bhd.

The Malaysian Timber Industry Board portal states that in March 2005 the Cabinet had entrusted the Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities to pursue the development of forest plantations.

Under this programme, the Ministry plans to develop 375,000ha of forest plantation at an annual planting rate of 25,000ha per year for the next 15 years. Sahabat Alam Malaysia (SAM) had objected to the development of forest plantations as studies have shown that monoculture tree plantations have a two-fold impact globally through loss of biodiversity and being net emitters of carbon.

A report published in Nature show that old-growth forests store carbon for centuries, whereas plantations and young forests are actually net emitters of carbon due to the disturbance of the soil and the degradation of the previous ecosystem.

There is a clear difference between the rich biodiversity of a forest and the barren life of an industrial forest plantation. A forest is a complex, self-regenerating ecological system with a wide variety of plants and animals in mutual relation.

Biological diversity and forest functions are drastically lost when forests are cleared and planted with species of fast-growing trees for timber and/or latex.

Undisturbed forest soil has good structural properties which help in filtration and increases its water-holding capacity. Land clearance during the establishment of forest plantations will increase the peak flow rate of the area, thus increasing the risk of floods.

Forest plantations become further ecologically diminished with each successive harvest, as

the potential to hold carbon and water is reduced.

It is perplexing why monoculture tree and forest plantations such as timber latex clones are promoted despite their known detrimental impacts on biodiversity, climate change and water resources. We urge the Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities, Forestry Department and the relevant authorities to reconsider the approval given for the development of all forest plantations in the country.

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-07 16:14 | Report Abuse

Evergreen is the top 5 MDF manufacturer in Asia. Its PE ratio however is about half that of Thailand's Vanachai and Korea's Donghwa. Evergreen's shares are traded with reasonable liquidity on Bursa Malaysia. Also Evergreen's shares are traded below its net tangible assets. This counter is still largely overlooked by the investment community at the moment. Buying on dips is still the best strategy.

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-07 17:38 | Report Abuse

長青纖維板依然看好
業投行在今年1月，開始追蹤長青纖維板，其股價年頭至今已經上漲了88%。
陳國傑認為，若和今年1月相比，現在進場可能取得的回酬當然較少，但不代表沒有上漲的空間。
「手上若持有長青纖維板的股票，應該還可以守住。目前該公司股價1.41令吉，相信還可繼續上漲到1.80令吉，至2.00令吉。」
大本營位於柔佛峇株巴轄的長青纖維板，產品為中密度纖維板（ Medium Density Fibreboard，簡稱MDF）和微粒板（Particleboard），主要用來製造家具。
長青纖維板有70%營業額為出口業務，與其他木板股一樣，可從美元兌令吉升值中受惠不少。
但陳國傑強調，推薦長青纖維板的主要考量並不是美元升值，而是考慮到其主要成本如橡膠木（ rubber wood）和黏膠價格不斷下滑，托高公司利潤與獲利。
該公司每股淨有形資產（ NTA） 1.70令吉，仍高於公司股價，股價對帳面價值比例（P/BV）0.83倍。
管理層目前進行成本合理化，如提高生產力和轉移生產線，提高營運效率。
此外，公司開始注重附加價值產品（ Value added Product）和現成組裝（ Ready- to- Assemble）產品，也能提高未來盈利貢獻。



转载自：
股灵精探

Posted by Lucas Chan > 2015-07-07 20:57 | Report Abuse

Wow, nice counter!

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-08 08:32 | Report Abuse

As I have been saying...this counter is enjoying a good fortune of ' twin terror '..combination of depreciating RM vs USD and falling oil price...the price of this stock is at the cusp of meeting my target... for those who missed the boat...don't despair...there's another similar counter in the making.ie Mieco Bhd...its NTA is about RM 1.30..and looks like there is good value for every ringgit spent...expecting a better sets of quarterly results.

Posted by wkkht > 2015-07-08 12:11 | Report Abuse

SELL SIGNALS.

Posted by madguy > 2015-07-08 12:17 | Report Abuse

@kmohan62 Mieco Bhd also furniture stock ??

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-08 12:31 | Report Abuse

Madguy,
Mieco is the producer of various chipboard products...they are basically used in furniture productions and kitchen cabinets...

Posted by ethan1986 > 2015-07-08 16:11 | Report Abuse

Write a comment.Does evergrn has any relation to China economic? Current China having crisis

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-08 17:09 | Report Abuse

ethan1986, Evergreen has no relation to China's economy.Evergreen's main markets are Europe, USA and Middle East. In fact China is one of the largest producers of MDF in the world for their own consumption and exports.

Posted by ethan1986 > 2015-07-09 08:43 | Report Abuse

I see because China was having crisis yesterday. evergrn sudden closed at 1.61

Posted by James Bond > 2015-07-09 09:37 | Report Abuse

what price can go in ?

Posted by yiqqre > 2015-07-09 09:46 | Report Abuse

will begin to adjust.

Posted by StrattonOakmont > 2015-07-09 10:15 | Report Abuse

TP 2.15, the longer u wait, the more expansive to go in

Posted by steady31 > 2015-07-09 10:35 | Report Abuse

Now that the price has broken resistance of 1.68 , a revisit of the chart is needed to see the future direction.The daily, weekly, and even monthly charts are supportive of higher prices. I see the momentum is strong enough to go to next level of 182 soon.

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-09 10:47 | Report Abuse

My TP of RM 1.85 which I expected to be achieved within the next quarter will mostly breached sooner than the forecasted duration...meaning getting over valued...still room for appreciation..for those who have missed the boat on this counter...be quick to queue up for Mieco...my TP for this stock is RM 1.20 achievable latest within the next quarter..

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-09 12:55 | Report Abuse

Mieco is following in the tailwind of Evergreen. Fundamentally ,however, Mieco is much weaker than Evergreen in many aspects.Just in the area of net profit margin, Mieco's net margin is 3.5% versus more than 10% for Evergreen.On top of that Mieco will be shifting its entire manufacturing facility to a new location this year.This is quite risky as it may affect or disrupt their operations ( hence profitablilty ) if not carried out smoothly. So invest in Mieco with caution.Evergreen's future profitability is much more visible, as mentioned by HLG Research's latest report issued yesterday.It is still highly undervalued as compared to its international peers Vanachai,Thailand and Donghwa Korea.

Posted by ethan1986 > 2015-07-09 15:16 | Report Abuse

live long..already 1,70

Posted by wkkht > 2015-07-09 16:11 | Report Abuse

http://kongsenger.blogspot.com/2015/07/evergrn-5101.html

Posted by wkkht > 2015-07-09 16:22 | Report Abuse

How much can rise？

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-09 17:25 | Report Abuse

5101 EVERGRN Rm1.68 加码
EVERGREEN FIBREBOARD - IMPROVING EARNINGS VISIBILITY
Date: 08/07/2015

Source : HLG
Stock : EVERGRN Price Target : 2.15 | Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 1.70 | Upside/Downside : +0.45 (26.47%)
Back

Highlights
Evergreen’s share price has appreciated by 20.7% since early-Jul (outperforming the index by 20.4%-pts and surpassed our TP of RM1.59), we believe the strong share price performance was due to stronger US$ (against the RM) and declining crude oil price (which are both positive to Evergreen’s earnings).
In our view, Evergreen’s valuation remains commendable despite the recent strong share price performance, as: (1) MYR will remain under pressure on the back of several issues (namely global monetary policy divergence, low commodity prices, and unresolved political glitches); and (2) Prices of key inputs, namely rubber log wood and glue (which in turn is derived from methanol and urea) remain on downtrend (see Figures 1 & 2), and these are supportive of Evergreen’s earnings.
MYR and lower key input prices aside, we note that management’s continuous efforts to further improve Evergreen’s output and cost efficiencies, and diversifying its product range will help drive its earnings higher.
Given the improving earnings visibility and decent balance sheet (with net gearing of less than 0.3x as at 31 Mar 2015), we do not discount the possibility of Evergreen resuming paying dividends by 2016 (although management remains tight lipped on such possibility).
Risks
Escalating raw material and labour costs;
Slower-than-expected demand for MDF;
Fluctuating foreign currency movement (in particularly the US$); and
Slower-than-expected turnaround at the particleboard operations.
Forecasts
FY15-17 net profit forecasts raised by 6.4-12.9% to RM78.7m, RM100.3m and RM103m respectively, largely to account for: (1) A higher US$:RM assumption of RM3.60/US$ (vs. RM3.50/US$ previously); and (2) Slightly lower raw material cost assumptions.
Rating
BUY
Positives
(1) A beneficiary of strong US$ and low oil price; (2) Healthy balance sheet; and (3) Rubber plantation land bank value has yet to be reflected in current share price valuation.
Valuation
TP lifted by 35.2% to RM2.15, to reflect: (1) Higher net profit forecasts; (2) The roll forward of our valuation base year (from average 2015-2016 to 2016); and (3) Higher target P/E of 11x (from 10x previous), given Evergreen’s improving earnings visibility. We note that our higher target P/E of 11x is still at 19.5% discount to Vanachai Group’s 2016 P/E of 13.5x.
Maintain BUY recommendation.
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 8 Jul 2015


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撰文者富蘭克林證券投顧 富蘭克林國民理財錢進趨勢 瀏覽數：200+2015-07-08 贊助
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西方有希臘債務事件，東方有陸股引發一波連鎖性的下修壓力，東西夾擊，全球股債市臉色慘澹…。其實類似的市場情節時不時的上演，投資人身為其中一個角色，除了作中學、學中作之外，更重要的是鍛鍊忍功，因為無人能預測市場的下一秒，作好中長期奮戰的準備方是上策。
忍功一：不入虎穴焉得虎子
比起2008年金融海嘯，當前全球金融市場在各主要政府祭出多重經濟猛藥強力整頓之後，不僅體質逐漸改善，抵抗力也提高許多。像國際貨幣基金（IMF）近日出具的報告中羅列了31項金融體系問題，但也不諱言指出美國目前的金融體系與金融海嘯前相比已經比較安全。
其實全球股市第二季以來回檔，多少已化解股價昂貴且技術面過熱的疑慮，目前股價淨值比仍低於長期平均水準，檢視全球景氣領先指標之一的製造業指數（註），歐元區、美國與中國仍位處擴張點50之上，其中受惠新訂單上揚，美國製造業指數攀升至五個月高點，法國也出現去年四月來重返擴張的表現。
可預期在景氣基本面支撐下，全球股市中長線多頭格局不變，當前的短線震盪提供空手者進場加碼的機會，看好美國、歐洲及亞洲中小型股票基金，積極者可搭配印度或美國科技產業型基金。
忍功二：退一步海闊天空
如果是屬於穩健偏向保守的投資個性或還是對於眼下的大幅震盪整理感到心有餘悸的投資人，也先不要心生放棄，原因是廣大的金融市場中，還是不乏優質的標的，稍加檢視手中的資產配置，不妨減持一些風險較高、略偏積極的部位，放大投資的範圍格局，有助於進一步把安心轉化為信心。
放眼接下來的市場變化，不外乎將持續聚焦希臘與聯準會升息等議題，股市震盪難免，高息資產配置不可或缺，就景氣回升及評價面角度，歐美日等核心工業國家的公債不具投資價值，建議投資人可藉由側重短天期債的全球總報酬債券型基金、新興國家債券型基金，或是涵蓋高收益債與高股利股票的美國平衡型基金，兼顧控管風險與爭取較高收益的雙重目標。
釐清市場變數 投資風雨仍有信心
觀察希臘債務問題，不同於2008年雷曼兄弟事件涉及槓桿操作且投資人遍布全球，目前希臘公債主要是由歐元區國家、國際貨幣基金與歐洲央行等機構持有，銀行業實際曝險有限，如果全球經濟因希臘擔憂而放緩，歐洲央行可能進一步擴大購債規模（QE），聯準會也可能延後升息，有助發揮穩定信心與刺激經濟的效果，可望收斂股市下檔風險。
再看近期下修壓力沉重的陸股，健全的資本市場對於中國的經濟轉型有重要意義，中國政府為避免經濟硬著陸甚至引發經濟崩盤的信心危機，勢必推出更多強力的救市措施，儘管一時不見得能立即扭轉市場下跌趨勢，但或多或少有助於緩解市場恐慌情緒，在高槓桿投資者出場、系統性風險釋放後，市場才有望迎來反彈行情。
註：資料來源彭博資訊，取美國ISM製造業、中國官方製造業指數、歐元區Markit採購經理人指數，高於50代表景氣擴張，富蘭克林證券投顧整理（2015/7/8）。

Posted by ethan1986 > 2015-07-09 17:40 | Report Abuse

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=E&securityCode=5101

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-09 19:49 | Report Abuse

Wkkht. For an idea of how high and how long Evergreen's potential share price can further rise,consider this: The current bull market started in march 2009 and it is already more than 6 years old. However Evergreen's share price had started falling from its record high of rm 2.16 in 2007 until it bottomed out below rm0.50 in December 2014 i.e. about 6 years of decline.Its share price started rebounding in January 2015 until today for 6 months. Thus Evergreen's bull run is about 6 months old as compared to the global stock market bull run of 6 years.This implies that the general stock market is already fully or over valued in an aging bull market.Evergreen,being a significant laggard is seeing a profit turnaround and is now being recognised as under valued in comparison to the whole stock market. No wonder some investment funds are pouring into Evergreen now, especially when it is still trading below its NTA per share. You can say that it is one of the rare jewels left in an aging bull market !

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-09 20:42 | Report Abuse

Good comment,thanks

Posted by expensive > 2015-07-09 22:57 | Report Abuse

Tabung Haji selling why the chase?
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/5101.jsp

Posted by LOOK009 > 2015-07-10 09:07 | Report Abuse

To look like (Latitud)&(Liihen)

Posted by muk912 > 2015-07-10 09:21 | Report Abuse

Although I am a great supporter and investor of evergreen, but seems that the index raise too fast and overwhelming, too many speculators!

Posted by LOOK009 > 2015-07-10 09:29 | Report Abuse

http://evergreengroup.com.my/en/pop-news/23146

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-10 09:48 | Report Abuse

Evergreen is a good stock...but it has out run itself...almost fully valued..those who have missed the boat you may want to shift your attention to Mieco...value is slowly but surely imerging...room for further appreciation.

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-10 17:15 | Report Abuse

好几年前的5095 hevea 因遇行业不景气,扩展过快,当时差点破产,印象中股价下降至rm0.20多
,之后公司重整经几年发展至今,业务己上了轨道,前景很好,于10-7-2015公司股价站在rm3.67 ,当年買入者己丰收了.
回头来看5101evergrn的情况有些相似,股价去年有过rm0.47 ,公司在业绩持续改善下,
股价也回升到10-7-2015的rm1.69 ,公司历史高位是rm2.16 ,若往后的净利向好(目前这行业具备了种种利好),
想信要突破这个股位不难,且看公司改写历史吧,终究evergrn过去6年的牛市都在沉睡着,現在是时候奋起了.
希望你的眼光看到幸福的未来.投资快乐.

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-10 17:58 | Report Abuse

EVERGRN;The Incorporation will enable the Group to penetrate into new markets and increase its market share.

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-11 19:54 | Report Abuse

2015-07-11 18:16




長青纖維板（EVERGRN,5101,主板工業產品組）在2010至2012年間，為應付木桐價格走高及緊縮供應，採取了失敗的策略導致蒙受重挫，惟去年，該公司成功收复失地，重新步入可持續獲利狀況。

長青纖維板首席營運員兼執行董事郭仁秋指出，在目前進行的重大工廠重組計劃後，預料該公司的業績將會取得更好表現。


他表示，公司最壞情況已經過去，預料未來數年將可獲得盈利，今年的業績料比去年來得更好。
該公司的重組計劃料將減少營運成本及改善其盈利賺幅，主要是專注高檔纖維板及加值產品。
去年，原中密度纖維板領域，占公司總營業額的75%、加值產品則佔20%、其餘5%則來自自行裝置家私領域。
截至2015年3月31日為止第一季，長青纖維板的營業額走低至2億3千212萬令吉，不過，卻轉虧為盈，取得淨利2千零5萬令吉，前期則是淨虧損258萬令吉。這主要歸功於較低的木桐及粘合膠成本、較高的營運效率、及成本節省等因素。
截至2014年12月31日為止財政年，該公司轉虧為盈，取得淨利200萬令吉，前期還淨虧4千500萬令吉。
他指出，該公司2013及2014年財政年的業績表現欠佳，主要是收購橡膠樹伐木特許經營權，以在2010年及2012年應對偏高的木桐價格及緊縮的供應。
當木桐價格在2013年回軟時，該公司則需要攤銷2千萬令吉的特許經營權的價值。在2014年第2季，該公司再次攤銷余下的2千萬令吉特許經營權價值。（星洲日報）

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-11 21:25 | Report Abuse

There's a likelihood that Evergreen may go on a consolidation mode as it has outrun itself...its a good long term stock to begin with...but I strongly feel that the market has pre factored in its earning capacity for the next quarter as well..hence its present price level...at the moment Mieco is the only one among the furniture based counters which has some potential for further appreciation...

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-12 18:39 | Report Abuse

Rm1,69 仍吸引力,紧握直到rm 2,30

Posted by joel > 2015-07-12 21:28 | Report Abuse

Agree with u , kmohan62.

Posted by Sohai > 2015-07-13 02:34 | Report Abuse

All in liao....gogogo....

Posted by Sohai > 2015-07-13 02:37 | Report Abuse

Mieco also gogogo....